Inbreeding depression under intraspecific competition in a highly outcrossing population of Crepis sancta (Asteraceae): evidence for frequency-dependent variation

Inbreeding depression is a major selective factor acting to maintain outcrossing in hermaphroditic plants. Recently it has been shown that environmental conditions may greatly affect the levels of inbreeding depression. In this study, the effects of intraspecific competition, from either crossed or inbred progeny, and plant density on the expression of inbreeding depression were estimated for the allogamous colonizing plant Crepis sancta (Asteraceae). The population used in this experiment showed a very high outcrossing rate (t = 0.99). Inbreeding depression was measured for germination, survival to reproduction, number of capitula, and a multiplicative fitness estimate. We found that inbreeding depression on survival, the number of capitula, and total fitness was the greatest when inbred plants compete with outbred plants. The effect of density on inbreeding depression was less evident. The major implication of our study is that the relative fitness of selfed progeny is strongly influenced by the type of competitors (outbred or inbred). These results support the hypothesis that inbreeding depression varies according to the density and frequency of outbred plants and suggest that it could be considered as a density- and frequency-dependent phenomenon.     

Frequency-dependent inbreeding depression in Amsinckia

If the competitive ability of plants produced by self-pollination differs from that of plants derived by outcrossing, then the magnitude of inbreeding depression may be influenced by the composition of the competitive environment (i.e., the frequency of plants that have arisen from selfing and outcrossing in the neighborhood of "target" plants in which inbreeding depression is expressed). Here, we report the results of experiments designed to examine whether inbreeding depression is influenced by the frequency of inbred plants in the competitive neighborhood. Two species of the annual plant genus Amsinckia were studied, one a near-complete selfer (Amsinckia gloriosa) and the other a partial outcrosser (Amsinckia douglasiana). Competition experiments were conducted in artificial stands composed of different mixtures of inbred and outbred progeny. The fitnesses of progeny were found to be significantly influenced by the composition of the competing neighborhood. The fitness of target plants, however, did not vary monotonically with the frequency of inbred plants in the neighborhood. Rather, for A. gloriosa, maximum performance was observed when there was an intermediate frequency of inbred neighbors. For A. douglasiana, the opposite pattern was found. The results suggest that competition among progeny has the potential to play a role in the selection of self-fertilization and possibly in the maintenance of mixed mating systems.     

The cost of fluctuating inbreeding depression

We present a phenotypic model for the evolution of self-fertilization in an infinite population of annual hermaphrodites for the case in which fitness and inbreeding depression vary among generations (e.g., due to fluctuations in the environment from year to year). Conditions for the evolution of selfing, mixed mating, and outcrossing are derived and are compared with results from numerical calculations that assume a normal distribution of inbreeding depression. In contrast to the situation in which inbreeding depression does not vary, when inbreeding depression fluctuates in a stochastic manner among generations with a mean less than 0.5, selfing is not necessarily selected. Thus, fluctuating inbreeding depression can be viewed as an additional cost of selfing that may stabilize mixed mating systems. These results emphasize the need to take into account fluctuating inbreeding depression in empirical studies aimed at understanding mating system evolution in annuals.     

The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictions

Concern about the ecological consequences of global change has increasingly stimulated ecologists to examine the futures of ecological systems. Studying futures is not only a crucial element of the interaction between science, management and decision making , but also a critical research challenge per se , especially because futures cannot be observed or experimented on. In addition, researchers can encounter methodological and theoretical difficulties, which make interpretations and predictions problematic. In the literature which deals with futures of ecological systems two main lines of research can be distinguished: a predictive approach, which dominates the literature, can be contrasted with a rarer number of studies that elaborate potential scenarios for ecological systems. Scenario approaches currently concern mainly contacts with stakeholders or decision makers, or the use of climate scenarios to derive projections about ecological futures. We argue that a new direction for ecological futures research could be explored by using ecological scenarios in combination with predictive models to further fundamental ecological research, in addition to enhancing its applied value.     

Colonization and extinction dynamics of an annual plant metapopulation in an urban environment

The metapopulation framework considers that the spatiotemporal distribution of organisms results from a balance between the colonization and extinction of populations in a suitable and discrete habitat network. Recent spatially realistic metapopulation models have allowed patch dynamics to be investigated in natural populations but such models have rarely been applied to plants. Using a simple urban fragmented population system in which favourable habitat can be easily mapped, we studied patch dynamics in the annual plant Crepis sancta (Asteraceae). Using stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) and multi‐year occupancy data we dissected extinction and colonization patterns in our system. Overall, our data were consistent with two distinct metapopulation scenarios. A metapopulation (sensu stricto) dynamic in which colonization occurs over a short distance and extinction is lowered by nearby occupied patches (rescue effect) was found in a set of patches close to the city centre, while a propagule rain model in which colonization occurs from a large external population was most consistent with data from other networks. Overall, the study highlights the importance of external seed sources in urban patch dynamics. Our analysis emphasizes the fact that plant distributions are governed not only by habitat properties but also by the intrinsic properties of colonization and dispersal of species. The metapopulation approach provides a valuable tool for understanding how colonization and extinction shape occupancy patterns in highly fragmented plant populations. Finally, this study points to the potential utility of more complex plant metapopulation models than traditionally used for analysing ecological and evolutionary processes in natural metapopulations.