Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution

Species distribution modelling has been widely applied in order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Many methodological decisions, taken during the modelling process and forecasts, may, however, lead to a large variability in the assessment of future impacts. Using measures of species range change and turnover, the potential impacts of climate change on French stream fish species and assemblages were evaluated. Our main focus was to quantify the uncertainty in the projections of these impacts arising from four sources of uncertainty: initial datasets (Data), statistical methods [species distribution models (SDM)], general circulation models (GCM), and gas emission scenarios (GES). Several modalities of the aforementioned uncertainty sources were combined in an ensemble forecasting framework resulting in 8400 different projections. The variance explained by each source was then extracted from this whole ensemble of projections. Overall, SDM contributed to the largest variation in projections, followed by GCM, whose contribution increased over time equalling almost the proportion of variance explained by SDM in 2080. Data and GES had little influence on the variability in projections. Future projections of range change were more consistent for species with a large geographical extent (i.e., distribution along latitudinal or stream gradients) or with restricted environmental requirements (i.e., small thermal or elevation ranges). Variability in projections of turnover was spatially structured at the scale of France, indicating that certain particular geographical areas should be considered with care when projecting the potential impacts of climate change. The results of this study, therefore, emphasized that particular attention should be paid to the use of predictions ensembles resulting from the application of several statistical methods and climate models. Moreover, forecasted impacts of climate change should always be provided with an assessment of their uncertainty, so that management and conservation decisions can be taken in the full knowledge of their reliability.     

Eight polymorphic microsatellite markers in the Andalusian belladonna (Atropa baetica, Solanaceae)

We report on the isolation and characterization of eight microsatellite markers from enriched libraries for the critically endangered Atropa baetica. These are the first microsatellite loci reported for Atropa species. The total number of alleles found was 18, the expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.198 to 0.505. These markers will be useful to establish the real census of individuals and the genetic diversity both within and among the different populations of A. baetica.     

Activation of Satellite Cells Induced by Chronic Neostigmine Administration in the Rat

Muscle fibrillation has been suggested as a possible trigger for activation of satellite cells, a well known phenomenon associated with denervation. In order to test such a hypothesis fibrillation has been induced in normally innervated muscles by chronic administration of neostigmine and the response of satellite cells has been observed with a scanning electron microscope. The results show that satellite cells protrude from the profile of the muscle fiber, become partially separated from the latter, and align in rows. Elongated structures and presumable new muscle fibers are observed after 14 days of treatment. It is concluded that the overactivity of muscle fibers which is induced during fibrillation causes activation and differentiation of satellite cells. This result is consistent with that of a previous experiment showing that satellite cells are activated during acute increase in work-load.