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We present a model of a control programme for a disease outbreak in a population of livestock holdings. Control is achieved by culling infectious holdings when they are discovered and by the pre-emptive culling of livestock on holdings deemed to be at enhanced risk of infection. Because the pre-emptive control programme cannot directly identify exposed holdings, its implementation will result in the removal of both infected and uninfected holdings. This leads to a fundamental trade-off: increased levels of control produce a greater reduction in transmission by removing more exposed holdings, but increase the number of uninfected holdings culled. We derive an expression for the total number of holdings culled during the course of an outbreak and demonstrate that there is an optimal control policy, which minimizes this loss. Using a metapopulation model to incorporate local clustering of infection, we examine a neighbourhood control programme in a locally spreading outbreak. We find that there is an optimal level of control, which increases with increasing basic reproduction ratio, R(0); moreover, implementation of control may be optimal even when R(0) < 1. The total loss to the population is relatively insensitive to the level of control as it increases beyond the optimal level, suggesting that over-control is a safer policy than under-control.  相似文献   
13.
Acharya  S; Rayborn  ME; Hollyfield  JG 《Glycobiology》1998,8(10):997-1006
Rod and cone photoreceptors project from the outer retinal surface into a carbohydrate-rich interphotoreceptor matrix (IPM). Unique IPM glycoconjugates are distributed around rods and cones. Wheat germ agglutinin (WGA) strongly decorates the rod matrix domains and weakly decorates the cone matrix domains. This study characterizes the major WGA-binding glycoprotein in the human IPM, which we refer to as SPACR (sialoprotein associated with cones and rods). SPACR, which has a molecular weight of 147 kDa, was isolated and purified from the IPM by lectin affinity chromatography. A polyclonal antibody to SPACR was prepared that colocalizes in tissue preparations with WGA-binding domains in the IPM. Sequential digestion of SPACR with N- and O- glycosidases results in a systematic increase in electrophorectic mobility, indicating the presence of both N- and O-linked glycoconjugates. Complete deglycosylation results in a reduction in the relative molecular mass of SPACR by about 30%. Analysis of lectin binding allowed us to identify some of the structural characteristics of SPACR glycoconjugates. Treatment with neuraminidase exposes Galbeta1- 3GalNAc disaccharide as indicated by positive peanut agglutinin (PNA) staining, accompanied by the loss of WGA staining. Maackia amurensis agglutinins (MAA-1 and MAA-2), specific for sialic acid in alpha2-3 linkage to Gal, bind SPACR, while Sambucus nigra agglutinin (SNA), specific for alpha2-6 linked sialic acid, does not, indicating that the dominant glycoconjugate determinant on SPACR is the O-linked carbohydrate, NeuAcalpha2-3Galbeta1-3GalNAc. The abundance of sialic acid in SPACR suggests that this glycoprotein may contribute substantially to the polyanionic nature of the IPM. The carbohydrate chains present on SPACR could also provide sites for extensive crosslinking and participate in the formation of the ordered IPM lattice that surrounds the elongate photoreceptors projecting from the outer retinal surface.   相似文献   
14.
每搏量变异度是动态的容量监测指标.机械通气患者心肺的相互作用是每搏量变异度的产生基础,通过动脉压力波形分析技术可以进行连续监测.每搏量变异度能够准确预测容量治疗反应,与静态的血流动力学参数相比,对于优化心输出量和组织氧供更有优势,但也存在一定的局限性.每搏量变异度受多种因素影响且不能用于自主呼吸和心律失常的患者.临床应用时应该综合考虑其影响因素,结合其他的指标和方法指导容量治疗.  相似文献   
15.

Background

Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli O157 can cause severe bloody diarrhea and haemolytic uraemic syndrome. Phage typing of E. coli O157 facilitates public health surveillance and outbreak investigations, certain phage types are more likely to occupy specific niches and are associated with specific age groups and disease severity. The aim of this study was to analyse the genome sequences of 16 (fourteen T4 and two T7) E. coli O157 typing phages and to determine the genes responsible for the subtle differences in phage type profiles.

Results

The typing phages were sequenced using paired-end Illumina sequencing at The Genome Analysis Centre and the Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency and bioinformatics programs including Velvet, Brig and Easyfig were used to analyse them. A two-way Euclidian cluster analysis highlighted the associations between groups of phage types and typing phages. The analysis showed that the T7 typing phages (9 and 10) differed by only three genes and that the T4 typing phages formed three distinct groups of similar genomic sequences: Group 1 (1, 8, 11, 12 and 15, 16), Group 2 (3, 6, 7 and 13) and Group 3 (2, 4, 5 and 14). The E. coli O157 phage typing scheme exhibited a significantly modular network linked to the genetic similarity of each group showing that these groups are specialised to infect a subset of phage types.

Conclusion

Sequencing the typing phage has enabled us to identify the variable genes within each group and to determine how this corresponds to changes in phage type.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-015-1470-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   
16.
白马雪山国家级自然保护区典型森林生态系统服务   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
生态系统服务是近年来生态学研究的热点领域,对关键区域生态系统服务的研究具有重要意义.云南省白马雪山国家级自然保护区地处青藏高原南延部分,拥有独特的地理位置,是生物多样性保护的热点区域.本文对该保护区森林生态系统的生物量与生产力、水源涵养、营养物质循环等3项服务的功能量进行了评估.结果表明:保护区森林总生物量2215.86×104t,生产力171.84×104t·a-1;水源涵养量11964.56×104m3;N、P、K年吸收量分别为26025.94t、2638.57t、12016.85 t.研究表明,保护区森林生态效益显著,对于维持当地以及周边地区的生态安全具有重要意义.  相似文献   
17.

Background

Sero-prevalence is a valuable indicator of prevalence and incidence of A/H1N1 2009 infection. However, raw sero-prevalence data must be corrected for background levels of cross-reactivity (i.e. imperfect test specificity) and the effects of immunisation programmes.

Methods and Findings

We obtained serum samples from a representative sample of 1563 adults resident in Scotland between late October 2009 and April 2010. Based on a microneutralisation assay, we estimate that 44% (95% confidence intervals (CIs): 40–47%) of the adult population of Scotland were sero-positive for A/H1N1 2009 influenza by 1 March 2010. Correcting for background cross-reactivity and for recorded vaccination rates by time and age group, we estimated that 34% (27–42%) were naturally infected with A/H1N1 2009 by 1 March 2010. The central estimate increases to >40% if we allow for imperfect test sensitivity. Over half of these infections are estimated to have occurred during the study period and the incidence of infection in late October 2009 was estimated at 4.3 new infections per 1000 people per day (1.2 to 7.2), falling close to zero by April 2010. The central estimate increases to over 5.0 per 1000 if we allow for imperfect test specificity. The rate of infection was higher for younger adults than older adults. Raw sero-prevalences were significantly higher in more deprived areas (likelihood ratio trend statistic = 4.92,1 df, P = 0.03) but there was no evidence of any difference in vaccination rates.

Conclusions

We estimate that almost half the adult population of Scotland were sero-positive for A/H1N1 2009 influenza by early 2010 and that the majority of these individuals (except in the oldest age classes) sero-converted as a result of natural infection with A/H1N1 2009. Public health planning should consider the possibility of higher rates of infection with A/H1N1 2009 influenza in more deprived areas.  相似文献   
18.
There are 219 virus species that are known to be able to infect humans. The first of these to be discovered was yellow fever virus in 1901, and three to four new species are still being found every year. Extrapolation of the discovery curve suggests that there is still a substantial pool of undiscovered human virus species, although an apparent slow-down in the rate of discovery of species from different families may indicate bounds to the potential range of diversity. More than two-thirds of human viruses can also infect non-human hosts, mainly mammals, and sometimes birds. Many specialist human viruses also have mammalian or avian origins. Indeed, a substantial proportion of mammalian viruses may be capable of crossing the species barrier into humans, although only around half of these are capable of being transmitted by humans and around half again of transmitting well enough to cause major outbreaks. A few possible predictors of species jumps can be identified, including the use of phylogenetically conserved cell receptors. It seems almost inevitable that new human viruses will continue to emerge, mainly from other mammals and birds, for the foreseeable future. For this reason, an effective global surveillance system for novel viruses is needed.  相似文献   
19.
20.
Multispecies cicada communities in neotropical rainforests produce a complex and intense acoustic environment. In a fragment of a Mexican rainforest (Veracruz, Mexico), a cicada community at the end of the dry season consisted of nine species ( Daza montezuma; Pacarina schumanni; Miranha imbellis; Dorisiana sutori; Fidicinoides picea; Fidicinoides pronoe; Quesada gigas; one species of the genus Neocicada and one uncaught canopy species). Seven of the nine species formed dense choruses at dawn and at dusk. Each species showed preferences in the height of calling sites. Males of the species were solitary or gregarious, and followed a 'call-fly' or a 'call-stay' calling strategy. Acoustic signals of each species had particular time and frequency patterns. All these specific features appear to separate the nine species acoustically and lead to a partitioning of the acoustic environment. The acoustic partitioning might decrease the risk of heterospecific courting and mating.© 2002 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2002, 75 , 379–394.  相似文献   
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