Trends in Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Danish Infants,Children and Adolescents – Are We Still on a Plateau?

Background

After the worldwide steep increase in child and adolescent overweight and obesity during the last decades, there is now evidence of a levelling off in the prevalence in many countries in the Western world.

Aim

To examine whether there still is a plateau in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Danish children and adolescents, or whether the prevalence is decreasing or rising again.

Methods

The trends in the prevalence rates were based on three data sets providing comparable repeated estimates: 1) the Danish Health Visitors Child Health Database (DHVCHD) with measurements on infant and childhood height and weight from 2002 to 2011 (n up to 39,984), 2) the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) with maternal reports of measured infant and childhood height and weight from 1998 to 2010 (n up to 56,826) and 3) the Danish part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey (HBSC) with self-reported information on adolescent height and weight from the years 2002 to 2010 (n = 16,557). Overweight and obesity were categorized according to WHO growth standards. Trends were assessed by repeated point estimates and linear regression analyses providing regression coefficients for changes in per cent per year with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity for infants, children and adolescents showed a mixed pattern of decline, stability and increase (ranging from -1.10 through 0.29 per cent per year with CI’s from -3.10 through 2.37). Overall, there were no consistent statistically significant trends upwards or downwards, although some significant downward trends in childhood and adolescence were observed.

Conclusion

This study, based on data from 1998 through 2011, showed that the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity among Danish infants, children and adolescents were largely still on a plateau with tendencies for a decline among children and adolescents.     

Process,correlation and parameter fitting in species distribution models: a response to Kriticos et al

In a recent article (Dormann et al., 2012, Journal of Biogeography, 39, 2119–2131), we compared different approaches to species distribution modelling and depicted modelling approaches along an axis from purely ‘correlative’ to ‘forward process‐based’ models. In their correspondence, Kriticos et al. (2013, Journal of Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/j.1365‐2699.2012.02791.x ) challenge this view, claiming that our continuum representation neglects differences among models and does not consider the ability of fitted process‐based models to combine the advantages of both process‐based and correlative modelling approaches. Here we clarify that the continuum view resulted from recognition of the manifold differences between models. We also reinforce the point that the current trend towards combining different modelling approaches may lead not only to the desired combination of the advantages but also to the accumulation of the disadvantages of those approaches. This point has not been made sufficiently clear previously.     

Temporal variability of ecological niches: a study on intertidal macrobenthic fauna

The determination of temporal niche dynamics under field conditions is an important component of a species’ ecology. Recent developments in niche mapping, and the possibility to account for spatial autocorrelation in species distributions, hold promise for the statistical approach explored here. Using species counts from a landscape‐scale benthic monitoring programme in the western Dutch Wadden Sea during 1997–2005 in combination with sediment characteristics and tidal height as explanatory variables, we statistically derive realised niches for two bivalves, two crustaceans and three polychaetes, encompassing predators, suspension and bottom feeding functional groups. Unsurprisingly, realized niches varied considerably between species. Intraspecific temporal variation was assessed as overlap between the year‐specific niche and the overall mean niche, and this analysis revealed considerable variation between years. The main functional groups represented by these species showed idiosyncratic and wide variability through the study period. There were no strong associations between niche characteristics and mean abundance or body size. Our assessment of intraspecific niche variability has ramifications for species distribution models in general and offers advances from previous methods. 1) By assessing species’ realized niches in the multivariate environmental space, analyses are independent from the relative availability of particular environments. Predicted realized niches present differences between years, rather than annual differences in environmental conditions. 2) Using spatially explicit models to predict species habitat preferences provide more precise and unbiased estimates of species–environment relationships. 3) Current niche models assume constant niches, whereas we illustrate how much these can vary over only a few generations. This emphasizes the potentially limited scope of global change studies with forecasts based on single‐time species distribution snapshots.     

A preliminary assessment of congruence between biodiversity patterns in Afrotropical forest birds and forest mammals

Burgess, N., de Klerk, H., Fjeldsá, J., Crowe, T. & Rahbek, R. 2000. A preliminary assessment of congruence between biodiversity patterns in Afrotropical forest birds and forest mammals. Ostrich 71 (1 & 2): 286–291.

Databases compiled for forest birds and forest mammals in the Afrotropics were tested for congruence of overall patterns and hotspots of species richness and endemism. We also looked at how well a near-minimum set of priority areas for one taxon catered for the second taxon. Overall species richness and richness hotspots of forest birds were significantly correlated with those of forest mammals, as was the case for overall endemism. Endemism hotspots for forest birds and mammals were not significantly correlated. The near-minimum set for forest birds represented 136 (76.5%) forest mammal species. The near-minimum set for forest mammals represented 350 (93.62%) forest bird species. However, to represent all forest mammals three times each, 51 grids were needed in addition to the 78 chosen as a near-minimum set for forest birds, and to represent all forest birds three times each, 43 more grids were needed in addition to the 80 selected for forest mammals. There is some congruence between the patterns of richness, endemism and near-minimum sets for forest birds and mammals in the Afrotropics, but the one taxon does not provide the ideal conservation solution for the other. Further refinement of the databases used in this paper would allow for more rigorous testing of congruence between these two groups.     

Visualizing the Beta Interferon Response in Mice during Infection with Influenza A Viruses Expressing or Lacking Nonstructural Protein 1

The innate host defense against influenza virus is largely dependent on the type I interferon (IFN) system. However, surprisingly little is known about the cellular source of IFN in the infected lung. To clarify this question, we employed a reporter mouse that contains the firefly luciferase gene in place of the IFN-β-coding region. IFN-β-producing cells were identified either by simultaneous immunostaining of lungs for luciferase and cellular markers or by generating conditional reporter mice that express luciferase exclusively in defined cell types. Two different strains of influenza A virus were employed that either do or do not code for nonstructural protein 1 (NS1), which strongly suppresses innate immune responses of infected cells. We found that epithelial cells and lung macrophages, which represent the prime host cells for influenza viruses, showed vigorous IFN-β responses which, however, were severely reduced and delayed if the infecting virus was able to produce NS1. Interestingly, CD11c⁺ cell populations that were either expressing or lacking macrophage markers produced the bulk of IFN-β at 48 h after infection with wild-type influenza A virus. Our results demonstrate that the virus-encoded IFN-antagonistic factor NS1 disarms specifically epithelial cells and lung macrophages, which otherwise would serve as main mediators of the early response against infection by influenza virus.