Link Prediction in Criminal Networks: A Tool for Criminal Intelligence Analysis

The problem of link prediction has recently received increasing attention from scholars in network science. In social network analysis, one of its aims is to recover missing links, namely connections among actors which are likely to exist but have not been reported because data are incomplete or subject to various types of uncertainty. In the field of criminal investigations, problems of incomplete information are encountered almost by definition, given the obvious anti-detection strategies set up by criminals and the limited investigative resources. In this paper, we work on a specific dataset obtained from a real investigation, and we propose a strategy to identify missing links in a criminal network on the basis of the topological analysis of the links classified as marginal, i.e. removed during the investigation procedure. The main assumption is that missing links should have opposite features with respect to marginal ones. Measures of node similarity turn out to provide the best characterization in this sense. The inspection of the judicial source documents confirms that the predicted links, in most instances, do relate actors with large likelihood of co-participation in illicit activities.     

Modeling Staphylococcus epidermidis-Induced Non-Unions: Subclinical and Clinical Evidence in Rats

S. epidermidis is one of the leading causes of orthopaedic infections associated with biofilm formation on implant devices. Open fractures are at risk of S. epidermidis transcutaneous contamination leading to higher non-union development compared to closed fractures. Although the role of infection in delaying fracture healing is well recognized, no in vivo models investigated the impact of subclinical low-grade infections on bone repair and non-union. We hypothesized that the non-union rate is directly related to the load of this commonly retrieved pathogen and that a low-grade contamination delays the fracture healing without clinically detectable infection. Rat femurs were osteotomized and stabilized with plates. Fractures were infected with a characterized clinical-derived methicillin-resistant S. epidermidis (10³, 10⁵, 10⁸ colony forming units) and compared to uninfected controls. After 56 days, bone healing and osteomyelitis were clinically assessed and further evaluated by micro-CT, microbiological and histological analyses. The biofilm formation was visualized by scanning electron microscopy. The control group showed no signs of infection and a complete bone healing. The 10³ group displayed variable response to infection with a 67% of altered bone healing and positive bacterial cultures, despite no clinical signs of infection present. The 10⁵ and 10⁸ groups showed severe signs of osteomyelitis and a non-union rate of 83–100%, respectively. The cortical bone reaction related to the periosteal elevation in the control group and the metal scattering detected by micro-CT represented limitations of this study. Our model showed that an intra-operative low-grade S. epidermidis contamination might prevent the bone healing, even in the absence of infectious signs. Our findings also pointed out a dose-dependent effect between the S. epidermidis inoculum and non-union rate. This pilot study identifies a relevant preclinical model to assess the role of subclinical infections in orthopaedic and trauma surgery and to test specifically designed diagnostic, prevention and therapeutic strategies.     

Microsatellite Genotyping of Plasmodium vivax Isolates from Pregnant Women in Four Malaria Endemic Countries

Plasmodium vivax is the most widely distributed human parasite and the main cause of human malaria outside the African continent. However, the knowledge about the genetic variability of P. vivax is limited when compared to the information available for P. falciparum. We present the results of a study aimed at characterizing the genetic structure of P. vivax populations obtained from pregnant women from different malaria endemic settings. Between June 2008 and October 2011 nearly 2000 pregnant women were recruited during routine antenatal care at each site and followed up until delivery. A capillary blood sample from the study participants was collected for genotyping at different time points. Seven P. vivax microsatellite markers were used for genotypic characterization on a total of 229 P. vivax isolates obtained from Brazil, Colombia, India and Papua New Guinea. In each population, the number of alleles per locus, the expected heterozygosity and the levels of multilocus linkage disequilibrium were assessed. The extent of genetic differentiation among populations was also estimated. Six microsatellite loci on 137 P. falciparum isolates from three countries were screened for comparison. The mean value of expected heterozygosity per country ranged from 0.839 to 0.874 for P. vivax and from 0.578 to 0.758 for P. falciparum. P. vivax populations were more diverse than those of P. falciparum. In some of the studied countries, the diversity of P. vivax population was very high compared to the respective level of endemicity. The level of inter-population differentiation was moderate to high in all P. vivax and P. falciparum populations studied.     

Falling Victim to Wasps in the Air: A Fate Driven by Prey Flight Morphology?

In prey-predator systems where the interacting individuals are both fliers, the flight performance of both participants heavily influences the probability of success of the predator (the prey is captured) and of the prey (the predator is avoided). While the flight morphology (an estimate of flight performance) of predatory wasps has rarely been addressed as a factor that may contribute to explain prey use, how the flight morphology of potential prey influences the output of predator-prey encounters has not been studied. Here, we hypothesized that flight morphology associated with flight ability (flight muscle mass to body mass ratio (FMR) and body mass to wing area ratio (wing loading, WL)) of Diptera affect their probability of being captured by specialized Diptera-hunting wasps (Bembix merceti and B. zonata), predicting a better manoeuvrability and acceleration capacity achieved by higher FMR and lower WL, and flight speed achieved by higher WL. In addition, wasp species with better flight morphology should be less limited by an advantageous Diptera flight morphology. Overall, the abundance of dipterans in the environment explained an important part of the observed variance in prey capture rate. However, it was not the only factor shaping prey capture. First, higher prey abundance was associated with greater capture rate for one species (B. merceti), although not for the other one. Second, the interaction observed between the environmental dipteran availability and dipteran WL for B. zonata suggests that greater dipteran WL (this probably meaning high cruising speed) decreased the probability of being captured, as long as fly abundance was high in the environment. Third, greater dipteran FMR (which likely means high manoeuvrability and acceleration capacity) helped to reduce predation by B. merceti if, again, dipterans were abundant in the environment. Wasp WL only varied with body mass but not between species, thereby hardly accounting for inter-specific differences in the wasps’ predatory patterns. However, the greater FMR of B. zonata, which implies better flight performance and greater load-lifting capacity, may explain why the capture rate in the two wasp species is affected by different factor interactions. In conclusion, although prey availability remains the primary factor shaping prey use, prey flight morphology seems to gain an additional role under conditions of abundant prey, when wasps can avoid flies with better flight ability.     

Cities through the Prism of People’s Spending Behavior

Scientific studies of society increasingly rely on digital traces produced by various aspects of human activity. In this paper, we exploit a relatively unexplored source of data–anonymized records of bank card transactions collected in Spain by a big European bank, and propose a new classification scheme of cities based on the economic behavior of their residents. First, we study how individual spending behavior is qualitatively and quantitatively affected by various factors such as customer’s age, gender, and size of his/her home city. We show that, similar to other socioeconomic urban quantities, individual spending activity exhibits a statistically significant superlinear scaling with city size. With respect to the general trends, we quantify the distinctive signature of each city in terms of residents’ spending behavior, independently from the effects of scale and demographic heterogeneity. Based on the comparison of city signatures, we build a novel classification of cities across Spain in three categories. That classification exhibits a substantial stability over different city definitions and connects with a meaningful socioeconomic interpretation. Furthermore, it corresponds with the ability of cities to attract foreign visitors, which is a particularly remarkable finding given that the classification was based exclusively on the behavioral patterns of city residents. This highlights the far-reaching applicability of the presented classification approach and its ability to discover patterns that go beyond the quantities directly involved in it.     

Day vs. night predation on artificial caterpillars in primary rainforest habitats – an experimental approach

The influence of natural enemies has led to the evolution of various predator avoidance strategies in herbivorous insects. Many caterpillars are exclusively active at night and rest during the day. It is widely assumed that nocturnal activity in caterpillars reduces their risk of falling prey to their natural enemies. To test this hypothesis, we compared predation pressure between day and night in tree‐fall gaps and closed‐canopy forest sites in an Amazonian primary lowland rainforest. Artificial clay caterpillars, showing camouflaged colouration (green), were exposed as potential prey to a natural predator community. Attacks were significantly more frequent during daytime and were reduced by about a quarter at night in tree‐fall gaps, and by a third in closed‐canopy forest sites. This supports the idea of time‐dependent activity in caterpillars as an antipredatory adaptation. Further, independent of the time of day, predation pressure on caterpillars was significantly higher in tree‐fall gaps compared to closed‐canopy forest habitats. Nearly all predation events were caused by arthropods, whereas birds played a negligible role. Across both habitat types and time scales, ants acted as major predator group, emphasising their important role in population control of herbivorous insects in lowland rainforest ecosystems. This is the first experimental study using artificial caterpillars to examine whether time‐scheduling of exposition might influence predation risk amongst undefended, solitary, free‐living lepidopteran larvae.     

Ecological genetics of Italian peach‐potato aphid (Myzus persicae) populations in relation to geography,dispersal and insecticide resistance as studied using microsatellite and resistance markers

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High‐density molecular characterization and association mapping in Ethiopian durum wheat landraces reveals high diversity and potential for wheat breeding

Durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) is a key crop worldwide, and yet, its improvement and adaptation to emerging environmental threats is made difficult by the limited amount of allelic variation included in its elite pool. New allelic diversity may provide novel loci to international crop breeding through quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping in unexplored material. Here, we report the extensive molecular and phenotypic characterization of hundreds of Ethiopian durum wheat landraces and several Ethiopian improved lines. We test 81 587 markers scoring 30 155 single nucleotide polymorphisms and use them to survey the diversity, structure, and genome‐specific variation in the panel. We show the uniqueness of Ethiopian germplasm using a siding collection of Mediterranean durum wheat accessions. We phenotype the Ethiopian panel for ten agronomic traits in two highly diversified Ethiopian environments for two consecutive years and use this information to conduct a genome‐wide association study. We identify several loci underpinning agronomic traits of interest, both confirming loci already reported and describing new promising genomic regions. These loci may be efficiently targeted with molecular markers already available to conduct marker‐assisted selection in Ethiopian and international wheat. We show that Ethiopian durum wheat represents an important and mostly unexplored source of durum wheat diversity. The panel analysed in this study allows the accumulation of QTL mapping experiments, providing the initial step for a quantitative, methodical exploitation of untapped diversity in producing a better wheat.     

A large nested association mapping population for breeding and quantitative trait locus mapping in Ethiopian durum wheat

The Ethiopian plateau hosts thousands of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) farmer varieties (FV) with high adaptability and breeding potential. To harness their unique allelic diversity, we produced a large nested association mapping (NAM) population intercrossing fifty Ethiopian FVs with an international elite durum wheat variety (Asassa). The Ethiopian NAM population (EtNAM) is composed of fifty interconnected bi‐parental families, totalling 6280 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) that represent both a powerful quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping tool, and a large pre‐breeding panel. Here, we discuss the molecular and phenotypic diversity of the EtNAM founder lines, then we use an array featuring 13 000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to characterize a subset of 1200 EtNAM RILs from 12 families. Finally, we test the usefulness of the population by mapping phenology traits and plant height using a genome wide association (GWA) approach. EtNAM RILs showed high allelic variation and a genetic makeup combining genetic diversity from Ethiopian FVs with the international durum wheat allele pool. EtNAM SNP data were projected on the fully sequenced AB genome of wild emmer wheat, and were used to estimate pairwise linkage disequilibrium (LD) measures that reported an LD decay distance of 7.4 Mb on average, and balanced founder contributions across EtNAM families. GWA analyses identified 11 genomic loci individually affecting up to 3 days in flowering time and more than 1.6 cm in height. We argue that the EtNAM is a powerful tool to support the production of new durum wheat varieties targeting local and global agriculture.