Proffered papers 9.30–10.00 Monday 15 September 2003

Both the original Bethesda system and the current UK classifications of cervical cytology have proved robust but each has a major weakness in the area of abnormalities of uncertain significance. Cytologists recognize that sometimes it is simply impossible to differentiate between reactive and dyskaryotic material. For this reason, the Australian version of the Bethesda system introduced a new category of 'high grade inconclusive' with a recommendation for referral to colposcopy. Approximately 60% of such cases are found to have high grade lesions at colposcopy (Schoolland M, Sterrett G, Knowles S et al .). The present UK system even with the proposed changes requires of the pathologist, a decision as to whether such cases are probably high grade (=a report of moderate dyskaryosis) or not (= a report of borderline). This continues to ignore the fact that sometimes you just cannot tell, even on review. We have taken a consecutive series of 50 referral smears, reported as moderate dyskaryosis, where the histological outcome (by loop cone) is known. These cases were rescreened and then reviewed blind by a pathologist with extensive experience of the Australian NH & MRC modified Bethesda system. On review, the material was reclassified along NH & MRC lines. The results were compared with the biopsy findings in order to determine whether the category of 'inconclusive' might be of value in the context of the NHSCSP.     

N-poor ecosystems may respond more to elevated [CO2] than N-rich ones in the long term. A model analysis of grassland.

The Hurley Pasture Model was used to examine the short and long-term responses of grazed grasslands in the British uplands to a step increase from 350 to 700 μmol mol^–1 CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) with inputs of 5 or 100 kg N ha^–1 y^–1. In N-rich grassland, [CO₂] doubling quickly increased net primary productivity (NPP), total carbon (C_sys) and plant biomass by about 30%. By contrast, the N-poor grassland underwent a prolonged ‘transient’, when there was little response, but eventually NPP, C_sys and plant biomass more than doubled. The ‘transient’ was due to N immobilization and severe depletion of the soil mineral N pool. The large long-term response was due to slow N accumulation, as a result of decreased leaching, decreased gaseous N losses and increased N₂-fixation, which amplified the CO₂ response much more in the N-poor than in the N-rich grassland. It was concluded that (i) ecosystems use extra carbon fixed at high [CO₂] to acquire and retain nutrients, supporting the contention of Gifford et al. (1996 ), (ii) in the long term, and perhaps on the real timescale of increasing [CO₂], the response (in NPP, C_sys and plant biomass) of nutrient-poor ecosystems may be proportionately greater than that of nutrient-rich ones, (iii) short-term experiments on nutrient-poor ecosystems may observe only the transient responses, (iv) the speed of ecosystem responses may be limited by the rate of nutrient accumulation rather than by internal rate constants, and (v) ecosystem models must represent processes affecting nutrient acquisition and retention to be able to simulate likely real-world CO₂ responses.     

Climate as a driver of phenological change in southern seabirds

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are over-represented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of the phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere seabirds. Overall there was a general trend towards later phenological events over time (34 % of all data series, N?=?47; 67 % of all significant trends), though this varied by taxa and location. The strongest trends towards later events were for seabirds breeding in Australia, the Laridae (gulls, noddies, terns) and migratory southern polar seabirds. In contrast, earlier phenologies were more often observed for the Spheniscidae (penguins) and for other seabirds breeding in the Antarctic and subantarctic. Phenological changes were most often associated with changes in oceanographic conditions, with sea-ice playing an important role for more southerly species. For some species in some locations, such as the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia, warmer oceans projected under various climate change scenarios are expected to correspond to increased seabird productivity, manifested through earlier breeding, heavier chicks, an increased chance of double brooding, at least in the short-term.     

Ecosystem productivity is independent of some soil properties at equilibrium

Long runs of a mechanistic model of forest carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics (Edinburgh Forest Model) suggest that, when in a steady state, ecosystem productivity may be insensitive to the specific rate of N mineralization of soil organic matter (SOM). At equilibrium, productivity and other vegetation properties are determined primarily by climate. This is so because, given time, modelled ecosystems tend to generate amounts of SOM that are able to supply N at rates which do not greatly limit plant growth. When specific N mineralization rates are low, large amounts of SOM accumulate, whereas when specific N mineralization rates are high, small amounts of SOM accumulate. However, it may take several millenia for equilibrium conditions to be reached following disturbance (particularly following degrading disturbance) and during that time N mineralization rates determine the speed of progress toward equilibrium.