Multivariate hierarchical frameworks for modeling delayed reporting in count data

In many fields and applications, count data can be subject to delayed reporting. This is where the total count, such as the number of disease cases contracted in a given week, may not be immediately available, instead arriving in parts over time. For short-term decision making, the statistical challenge lies in predicting the total count based on any observed partial counts, along with a robust quantification of uncertainty. We discuss previous approaches to modeling delayed reporting and present a multivariate hierarchical framework where the count generating process and delay mechanism are modeled simultaneously in a flexible way. This framework can also be easily adapted to allow for the presence of underreporting in the final observed count. To illustrate our approach and to compare it with existing frameworks, we present a case study of reported dengue fever cases in Rio de Janeiro. Based on both within-sample and out-of-sample posterior predictive model checking and arguments of interpretability, adaptability, and computational efficiency, we discuss the relative merits of different approaches.     

Direct 5S rRNA Assay for Monitoring Mixed-Culture Bioprocesses

This study demonstrates the efficacy of a direct 5S rRNA assay for the characterization of mixed microbial populations by using as an example the bacteria associated with acidic mining environments. The direct 5S rRNA assay described herein represents a nonselective, direct molecular method for monitoring and characterizing the predominant, metabolically active members of a microbial population. The foundation of the assay is high-resolution denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), which is used to separate 5S rRNA species extracted from collected biomass. Separation is based on the unique migration behavior of each 5S rRNA species during electrophoresis in denaturing gradient gels. With mixtures of RNA extracted from laboratory cultures, the upper practical limit for detection in the current experimental system has been estimated to be greater than 15 different species. With this method, the resolution was demonstrated to be effective at least to the species level. The strength of this approach was demonstrated by the ability to discriminate between Thiobacillus ferrooxidans ATCC 19859 and Thiobacillus thiooxidans ATCC 8085, two very closely related species. Migration patterns for the 5S rRNA from members of the genus Thiobacillus were readily distinguishable from those of the genera Acidiphilium and Leptospirillum. In conclusion, the 5S rRNA assay represents a powerful method by which the structure of a microbial population within acidic environments can be assessed.     

Clonal growth and serial propagation of rat esophageal epithelial cells

Summary The clonal growth and serial propagation of rat esophageal epithelial cells in low serum-containing medium has been achieved without feeder layers or conditioned medium. To date, a total of four lines have been developed and maintained for as many as 40 passages in culture. Growth of the cells was possible only after modifying the culture medium (PFMR-4) by reducing the calcium concentration from 1 to 0.1 mM, and by adding low levels of dialyzed fetal bovine serum and seven growth factors; i.e. epidermal growth factor, hydrocortisone, ethanolamine, phosphoethanolamine, insulin, transferrin, and cholera toxin. Cell lines have been developed from both explant outgrowths and enzyme dissociated esophagi. The epithelial nature of the cells was confirmed by electron microscopy and immunological methods. Clonal growth studies revealed that optimal cell growth occurred in medium containing 2.4% dialyzed fetal bovine serum and 0.1 mM calcium. Calcium levels of 0.3 mM or higher caused the cells to stratify and undergo terminal differentiation. Coating the culture dishes with collagen, or a combination of collagen, fibronectin, and bovine serum albumin, increased both the cell growth rate and the colony forming efficiency. The successful long term culture of rat esophageal epithelial cells permits their use as models in studies concerned with esophageal differentiation and carcinogenesis. This investigation was supported by U.S. Public Health Service Grant CA 28950, awarded by the National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD.