Detecting Presymptomatic Infection Is Necessary to Forecast Major Epidemics in the Earliest Stages of Infectious Disease Outbreaks

We assess how presymptomatic infection affects predictability of infectious disease epidemics. We focus on whether or not a major outbreak (i.e. an epidemic that will go on to infect a large number of individuals) can be predicted reliably soon after initial cases of disease have appeared within a population. For emerging epidemics, significant time and effort is spent recording symptomatic cases. Scientific attention has often focused on improving statistical methodologies to estimate disease transmission parameters from these data. Here we show that, even if symptomatic cases are recorded perfectly, and disease spread parameters are estimated exactly, it is impossible to estimate the probability of a major outbreak without ambiguity. Our results therefore provide an upper bound on the accuracy of forecasts of major outbreaks that are constructed using data on symptomatic cases alone. Accurate prediction of whether or not an epidemic will occur requires records of symptomatic individuals to be supplemented with data concerning the true infection status of apparently uninfected individuals. To forecast likely future behavior in the earliest stages of an emerging outbreak, it is therefore vital to develop and deploy accurate diagnostic tests that can determine whether asymptomatic individuals are actually uninfected, or instead are infected but just do not yet show detectable symptoms.     

A family study of dermatoglyphic traits in India: segregation analysis of accessory palmar triradii and the atd angle

Accessory triradii and the atd angle were examined via complex segregation analysis in order to evaluate possible genetic effects on these dermatoglyphic traits, measured in an endogamous Brahmin caste of peninsular India. The phenotypes considered included: presence of accessory palmar triradii a' and d', associated with the interdigital areas II and IV, respectively; presence of an accessory axial triradius tt' associated with the proximal margin of the palm; and an arctanh-transformation of the atd angle measurement. For all accessory triradii considered in the present investigation familial resemblance was evident. The most parsimonious model which could account for the observed resemblance was a multifactorial model that includes polygenic effects as well as transmissible environmental effects that are inherited in the same pattern as polygenes. Evidence of familial resemblance was also found for the arctanh-transformed atd angle, which could be attributed, initially, to both a major effect and a multifactorial component. Tests of transmission of a putative major gene were performed which yielded results consistent with Mendelian transmission, although an alternative test of no transmission of the major effect also fit the data. In light of these contrasting results we are precluded from accepting with confidence the notion of a major gene influence on the atd angle. We have concluded that the accessory triradii a', d', and tt', and the atd angle are influenced by multifactorial effects, including additive polygenes and possible environmental factors, such as intrauterine effects.     

Selecting hyperparasites for biocontrol of Dutch elm disease

Hyperparasites in the form of cytoplasmic RNA elements have been proposed as a biological control agent for Dutch elm disease. We characterized the range of outcomes likely to follow the introduction of such an agent by modelling the resultant population dynamics as an ecological interaction between the wild, ''target'', fungus and the hyperparasitized ''control'' fungus. We used data from the 1970s epidemic of Dutch elm disease in the UK to parameterize the population dynamics of the target fungus, and considered the success of control across a wide range of possibilities for the lethality and transmissibility of the modified control fungus. We decomposed hyperparasite transmissibility into horizontal transmissibility (the ability to colonize previously unparasitized target fungal hosts) and vertical transmissibility (the ability of control fungus to establish new colonies). There is an invasion threshold for both horizontal and vertical transmissibility. As vertical transmission is further increased, there is another threshold at which the target fungus is eradicated because of competitive exclusion by the control fungus. In contrast, eradication by raising horizontal transmission may never succeed because the target fungus needs to be present to support new cases through this route. Between these two thresholds for invasion and exclusion, control and target fungus may coexist. Using a stochastic, spatially extended model, we showed that predictions of success based on high competitive ability of the control fungus (i.e. high vertical transmission) are likely to be more robust than those based on the high degree to which the control fungus can cause target fungus to be hyperparasitized (i.e. high horizontal transmission).     

Divergent metabolism of human chorionic gonadotropin subunits within rat ovarian lysosomes

Pseudopregnant rats were injected with either native human chorionic gonadotropin or with (125I)-human chorionic gonadotropin and their ovarian homogenates fractionated on Percoll density gradients. The levels of alpha and beta subunits within subcellular fractions were measured using radioimmunoassays specific for each subunit. Radioactivity measurements of fractions obtained from rats injected with (125I)-human chorionic gonadotropin were used as a separate index of alpha subunit distribution. The alpha subunit was primarily restricted to a combined plasma membrane/prelysosomal vesicle fraction. Immunoreactive beta subunit was present at high concentrations within both this plasma membrane/prelysosomal vesicle fraction and within lysosomes. The striking difference in alpha and beta subcellular distribution may arise from differential sensitivities to lysosomal enzymes.     

A test of heterogeneous mixing as a mechanism for ecological persistence in a disturbed environment

Persistence is a central issue in population ecology with important implications for population management. Most theoretical studies have focused on continually interacting populations, even though many systems are subject to ecological disturbances which confound analysis of persistence. In this paper, we use a combination of a simple parasite–hyperparasite model with disturbances and field data to investigate the factors contributing to the observed persistence of the parasite population. The field data are taken from a two-year experiment (including five growing seasons) investigating the use of the mycoparasite Sporidesmium sclerotivorum as a persistent biological control agent of Sclerotinia minor, an economically important fungal parasite of lettuce. We show that the standard assumption of homogeneous mixing fails to predict the observed persistence of the parasite population. We demonstrate that allowing for heterogeneous mixing prevents the fade-out predicted in the homogeneous mixing case. The implications of the results for broad classes of host–parasite systems are discussed.     

Tomato yellow leaf curl viruses: ménage à trois between the virus complex,the plant and the whitefly vector

Tomato yellow leaf curl disease (TYLCD) is one of the most devastating viral diseases affecting tomato crops in tropical, subtropical and temperate regions of the world. Here, we focus on the interactions through recombination between the different begomovirus species causing TYLCD, provide an overview of the interactions with the cellular genes involved in viral replication, and highlight recent progress on the relationships between these viruses and their vector, the whitefly Bemisia tabaci. Taxonomy: The tomato yellow leaf curl virus‐like viruses (TYLCVs) are a complex of begomoviruses (family Geminiviridae, genus Begomovirus) including 10 accepted species: Tomato yellow leaf curl Axarquia virus (TYLCAxV), Tomato yellow leaf curl China virus (TYLCCNV), Tomato yellow leaf curl Guangdong virus (TYLCGuV), Tomato yellow leaf curl Indonesia virus (TYLCIDV), Tomato yellow leaf curl Kanchanaburi virus (TYLVKaV), Tomato yellow leaf curl Malaga virus (TYLCMalV), Tomato yellow leaf curl Mali virus (TYLCMLV), Tomato yellow leaf curl Sardinia virus (TYLCSV), Tomato yellow leaf curl Thailand virus (TYLCTHV), Tomato yellow leaf curl Vietnam virus (TYLCVNV) and Tomato yellow leaf curl virus(TYLCV). We follow the species demarcation criteria of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV), the most important of which is an 89% nucleotide identity threshold between full‐length DNA‐A component nucleotide sequences for begomovirus species. Strains of a species are defined by a 93% nucleotide identity threshold. Host range: The primary host of TYLCVs is tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), but they can also naturally infect other crops [common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris), sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum), chilli pepper (C. chinense) and tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum)], a number of ornamentals [petunia (Petunia×hybrida) and lisianthus (Eustoma grandiflora)], as well as common weeds (Solanum nigrum and Datura stramonium). TYLCVs also infect the experimental host Nicotiana benthamiana. Disease symptoms: Infected tomato plants are stunted or dwarfed, with leaflets rolled upwards and inwards; young leaves are slightly chlorotic; in recently infected plants, fruits might not be produced or, if produced, are small and unmarketable. In common bean, some TYLCVs produce the bean leaf crumple disease, with thickening, epinasty, crumpling, blade reduction and upward curling of leaves, as well as abnormal shoot proliferation and internode reduction; the very small leaves result in a bushy appearance.     

The co-distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and hookworm among African schoolchildren

Background

On the island of Bioko (Equatorial Guinea), insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have been the main tool used to control malaria over the last 13 years. In 2004, started an indoor residual spraying (IRS) campaign to control malaria. The purpose of this study is to asses the impact of the two control strategies on the island of Bioko (Equatorial Guinea), with regards to Plasmodium infection and anaemia in the children under five years of age.

Methods

Two transversal studies, the first one prior to the start of the IRS campaign and the second one year later. Sampling was carried out by stratified clusters. Malaria infection was measured by means of thick and thin film, and the packed cell volume (PCV) percentage. Data related to ITN use and information regarding IRS were collected. The Pearson's chi-square and logistic regression statistical tests were used to calculate odds ratios (OR)

Results

In the first survey, 168 children were sampled and 433 children in the second one. The prevalence of infection was 40% in 2004, and significantly lower at 21.7% in 2005. PCV was 41% and 39%, respectively. 58% of the children surveyed in 2004 and 44.3% in 2005 had slept under an ITN. 78% of the dwellings studied in 2005 had been sprayed. In the 2005 survey, sleeping without a mosquito net meant a risk of infection 3 times greater than sleeping protected with a net hanged correctly and with no holes (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

IRS and ITNs have proven to be effective control strategies on the island of Bioko. The choice of one or other strategy is, above all, a question of operational feasibility and availability of local resources.