Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome

Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.     

Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models with time-inhomogeneous removal rates

Stochastic compartmental models of the SEIR type are often used to make inferences on epidemic processes from partially observed data in which only removal times are available. For many epidemics, the assumption of constant removal rates is not plausible. We develop methods for models in which these rates are a time-dependent step function. A reversible jump MCMC algorithm is described that permits Bayesian inferences to be made on model parameters, particularly those associated with the step function. The method is applied to two datasets on outbreaks of smallpox and a respiratory disease. The analyses highlight the importance of allowing for time dependence by contrasting the predictive distributions for the removal times and comparing them with the observed data.      

Relationship of aerobic and anaerobic parameters with 400 m front crawl swimming performance

The aims of the present study were to investigate the relationship of aerobic and anaerobic parameters with 400 m performance, and establish which variable better explains long distance performance in swimming. Twenty-two swimmers (19.1±1.5 years, height 173.9±10.0 cm, body mass 71.2±10.2 kg; 76.6±5.3% of 400 m world record) underwent a lactate minimum test to determine lactate minimum speed (LMS) (i.e., aerobic capacity index). Moreover, the swimmers performed a 400 m maximal effort to determine mean speed (S400m), peak oxygen uptake (V.O2PEAK) and total anaerobic contribution (C_ANA). The C_ANA was assumed as the sum of alactic and lactic contributions. Physiological parameters of 400 m were determined using the backward extrapolation technique (V.O2PEAK and alactic contributions of C_ANA) and blood lactate concentration analysis (lactic anaerobic contributions of C_ANA). The Pearson correlation test and backward multiple regression analysis were used to verify the possible correlations between the physiological indices (predictor factors) and S400m (independent variable) (p < 0.05). Values are presented as mean ± standard deviation. Significant correlations were observed between S400m (1.4±0.1 m·s^-1) and LMS (1.3±0.1 m·s^-1; r = 0.80), V.O2PEAK (4.5±3.9 L·min^-1; r = 0.72) and C_ANA (4.7±1.5 L·O₂; r= 0.44). The best model constructed using multiple regression analysis demonstrated that LMS and V.O2PEAK explained 85% of the 400 m performance variance. When backward multiple regression analysis was performed, C_ANA lost significance. Thus, the results demonstrated that both aerobic parameters (capacity and power) can be used to predict 400 m swimming performance.     

New substitution models for rooting phylogenetic trees

The root of a phylogenetic tree is fundamental to its biological interpretation, but standard substitution models do not provide any information on its position. Here, we describe two recently developed models that relax the usual assumptions of stationarity and reversibility, thereby facilitating root inference without the need for an outgroup. We compare the performance of these models on a classic test case for phylogenetic methods, before considering two highly topical questions in evolutionary biology: the deep structure of the tree of life and the root of the archaeal radiation. We show that all three alignments contain meaningful rooting information that can be harnessed by these new models, thus complementing and extending previous work based on outgroup rooting. In particular, our analyses exclude the root of the tree of life from the eukaryotes or Archaea, placing it on the bacterial stem or within the Bacteria. They also exclude the root of the archaeal radiation from several major clades, consistent with analyses using other rooting methods. Overall, our results demonstrate the utility of non-reversible and non-stationary models for rooting phylogenetic trees, and identify areas where further progress can be made.     

Discovery of a series of 2-(1H-pyrazol-1-yl)pyridines as ALK5 inhibitors with potential utility in the prevention of dermal scarring

A series of 2-(1H-pyrazol-1-yl)pyridines are described as inhibitors of ALK5 (TGFβ receptor I kinase). Modeling compounds in the ALK5 kinase domain enabled some optimization of potency via substitutions on the pyrazole core. One of these compounds PF-03671148 gave a dose dependent reduction in TGFβ induced fibrotic gene expression in human fibroblasts. A similar reduction in fibrotic gene expression was observed when PF-03671148 was applied topically in a rat wound repair model. Thus these compounds have potential utility for the prevention of dermal scarring.     

Reducing the perversion of diversion: Applying world‐standard fish screening practices to the Murray–Darling Basin

Summary The impact of water diversion on fish populations is a global issue. Many countries have invested substantial funding into research and implementation strategies to ensure fish are protected at diversions that take water out of rivers for agriculture and other human uses. The most common management action is the installation of fish screens, and a wide range of designs are presently available that suit a large range of diversions. The Murray–Darling Basin is the largest catchment in Australia and has been substantially developed over the past 100 years to store and divert water for that protect fish from escaping into the irrigation systems. Recent studies have determined that water diversions have substantial impacts on native fish populations, but there are presently no coordinated efforts for mitigation strategies. The purpose of this review is to highlight aspects of successful screening programmes worldwide and identify those that could be directly applied to the Murray–Darling Basin. The development of similar programmes in the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom has identified that sufficient information and technology exists to inform the development of fish screening programmes. There is no need to commence implementation from first principles, and substantial progress can be achieved by applying successful aspects of other programmes. By identifying existing designs, defining ecological targets, developing generalised guidelines appropriate for local conditions and engaging the community, a co‐ordinated and successful fish screening programme could be directly applied to the Murray–Darling Basin. This would have substantial benefits for the long‐term sustainability of native fish without compromising water supply requirements.     

Classical biological control of Aphis gossypii (Homoptera: Aphididae) with Neozygites fresenii (Entomophthorales: Neozygitaceae) in California cotton

In August 1994 and 1995 classical biological control releases were made in cotton in the San Joaquin Valley, California, with an Arkansas strain of the entomopathogenic fungus, Neozygites fresenii, a pathogen of the cotton aphid, Aphis gossypii. Pre-release samples in both years indicated that N. fresenii was not naturally present in A. gossypii populations in the San Joaquin Valley. Two release methods were compared: dried N. fresenii-infected cotton aphid “cadavers” and chamber inoculation of A. gossypii. Both methods were successful in introducing N. fresenii to cotton aphids in California; however, higher prevalence of fungal infection resulted with the cadaver treatments. N. fresenii persisted and spread in the aphid population until early October 1994 and late September 1995. The highest mean percentage infection in the cadaver treatment in 1994 reached a level (14%) considered imminent for epizootics (12–15%). The use of predator exclusion cages resulted in higher N. fresenii prevalences.