The unpredictability of favourability: condition assessment and protected areas in England

The probability that protected areas will deliver their potential for maintaining or enhancing biodiversity is likely to be maximised if they are appropriately and effectively managed. As a result, governments and conservation agencies are devoting much attention to the management of protected areas. In the U.K., the demand for performance accountability has resulted in Public Service Agreements (PSA) that set out targets for government departments to deliver results in return for investments being made. One such target for England is to ensure that all nationally important wildlife sites are in favourable condition by 2010. Here, we tested the hypothesis, of potential strategic importance, that the ecological condition of these sites is predictable from relationships with a range of physical, environmental and demographic variables. We used binary logistic regression to investigate these relationships, using the results of English Nature’s 1997–2003 condition assessment exercise. Generally, sites in unfavourable condition tend to be larger in area, located at higher elevations, but with higher human population density and are more spatially isolated from units of the same habitat. However, despite the range of different parameters included in our models, the extent to which the condition of any given site could be predicted was low. Our results have implications for the delivery of PSA targets, funding allocation, and the location of new protected areas.     

A predictive model for freshwater bioassessment (Mondego River,Portugal)

We sampled macroinvertebrates at 75 locations in the Mondego river catchment, Central Portugal, and developed a predictive model for water quality assessment of this basin, based on the Reference Condition Approach. Sampling was done from June to September 2001. Fifty-five sites were identified as “Reference sites” and 20 sites were used as “Test sites” to test the model. At each site we also measured 40 habitat variables to characterize water physics and chemistry, habitat type, land use, stream hydrology and geographic location. Macroinvertebrates were generally identified to species or genus level; a total of 207 taxa were found. By Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic mean (UPGMA) clustering and analysis of species contribution to similarities percentage (SIMPER), two groups of reference sites were established. Using Discriminant Analysis (stepwise forward), four variables correctly predicted 78% of the reference sites to the appropriate group: stream order, pool quality, substrate quality and current velocity. Test sites’ environmental quality was established from their relative distance to reference sites, in MDS ordination space, using a series of bands (BEAST methodology). The model performed well at upstream sites, but at downstream sites it was compromised by the lack of reference sites. As with the English RIVPACS predictive model, the Mondego model should be continually improved with the addition of new reference sites. The adaptation of the Mondego model methodology to the Water Framework Directive is possible and would consist mainly of the integration of the WFD typology and increasing the number of ellipses that define quality bands. Handling editor: K. Martens     

Emerging infectious diseases and animal social systems

Emerging infectious diseases threaten a wide diversity of animals, and important questions remain concerning disease emergence in socially structured populations. We developed a spatially explicit simulation model to investigate whether—and under what conditions—disease-related mortality can impact rates of pathogen spread in populations of polygynous groups. Specifically, we investigated whether pathogen-mediated dispersal (PMD) can occur when females disperse after the resident male dies from disease, thus carrying infections to new groups. We also examined the effects of incubation period and virulence, host mortality and rates of background dispersal, and we used the model to investigate the spread of the virus responsible for Ebola hemorrhagic fever, which currently is devastating African ape populations. Output was analyzed using regression trees, which enable exploration of hierarchical and non-linear relationships. Analyses revealed that the incidence of disease in single-male (polygynous) groups was significantly greater for those groups containing an average of more than six females, while the total number of infected hosts in the population was most sensitive to the number of females per group. Thus, as expected, PMD occurs in polygynous groups and its effects increase as harem size (the number of females) increases. Simulation output further indicated that population-level effects of Ebola are likely to differ among multi-male–multi-female chimpanzees and polygynous gorillas, with larger overall numbers of chimpanzees infected, but more gorilla groups becoming infected due to increased dispersal when the resident male dies. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of social system on the spread of disease in wild mammals.     

Relationship of physical fitness, hormone replacement therapy, and hemostatic risk factors in postmenopausal women.

This cross-sectional study evaluated the relationship of physical fitness, hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and hemostatic profiles at rest and after an acute bout of maximal exercise in 48 healthy postmenopausal women. Subjects were categorized by fitness and HRT user status into four groups: unfit nonusers, fit nonusers, unfit users, and fit users. Fibrinolytic variables tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) activity, and antigen and prothrombin fragment 1 + 2, a molecular marker of in vivo thrombin generation, were measured before and after maximal exercise. Fibrinogen was also measured at rest. Higher tPA and lower PAI-1 activities (P <0.05) were seen in HRT users and fit groups. tPA and PAI-1 antigens were lower in HRT and fit groups (P <0.05) but not after correction for body mass index. Prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 was lower in the fit groups regardless of HRT status (P <0.05). Fibrinogen was similar in all groups. Favorable hemostatic profiles were observed in physically fit compared with unfit women, especially in HRT nonusers. Thus fitness is more strongly related to these hemostatic risk factors compared with HRT since HRT did not affect these hemostatic variables in fit postmenopausal women.     

Wnt-7a in feather morphogenesis: involvement of anterior-posterior asymmetry and proximal-distal elongation demonstrated with an in vitro reconstitution model.

How do vertebrate epithelial appendages form from the flat epithelia? Following the formation of feather placodes, the previously radially symmetrical primordia become anterior-posterior (A-P) asymmetrical and develop a proximo-distal (P-D) axis. Analysis of the molecular heterogeneity revealed a surprising parallel of molecular profiles in the A-P feather buds and the ventral-dorsal (V-D) Drosophila appendage imaginal discs. The functional significance was tested with an in vitro feather reconstitution model. Wnt-7a expression initiated all over the feather tract epithelium, intensifying as it became restricted first to the primordia domain, then to an accentuated ring pattern within the primordia border, and finally to the posterior bud. In contrast, sonic hedgehog expression was induced later as a dot within the primordia. RCAS was used to overexpress Wnt-7a in reconstituted feather explants derived from stage 29 dorsal skin to further test its function in feather formation. Control skin formed normal elongated, slender buds with A-P orientation, but Wnt-7a overexpression led to plateau-like skin appendages lacking an A-P axis. Feathers in the Wnt-7a overexpressing skin also had inhibited elongation of the P-D axes. This was not due to a lack of cell proliferation, which actually was increased although randomly distributed. While morphogenesis was perturbed, differentiation proceeded as indicated by the formation of barb ridges. Wnt-7a buds have reduced expression of anterior (Tenascin) bud markers. Middle (Notch-1) and posterior bud markers including Delta-1 and Serrate-1 were diffusely expressed. The results showed that ectopic Wnt-7a expression enhanced properties characteristic of the middle and posterior feather buds and suggest that P-D elongation of vertebrate skin appendages requires balanced interactions between the anterior and posterior buds.     

Growth-related expression of a double-stranded RNA-dependent protein kinase in 3T3 cells

Cultured mouse 3T3-F442A and 3T3-C2 fibroblasts exhibit a transient double-stranded RNA (dsRNA)-dependent phosphorylation of a 67,000-dalton protein (67K) without prior treatment with interferon (IFN). This phosphoprotein is similar but not identical to the dsRNA-dependent eukaryotic initiation factor-2 (eIF-2) alpha protein kinase (dsI), which regulates protein synthesis in rabbit reticulocytes. We have studied the relationship between cell growth and phosphorylation of the 67K protein (designated 3T3-dsRNA-dependent eIF-2 alpha kinase). A low level of dsRNA-dependent phosphorylation of 3T3-dsI was detectable in extracts prepared from cells not treated with IFN and grown at a low cell density. The phosphorylation of dsI and the phosphorylation of a 38K protein identified as the alpha-subunit (38K) of 3T3-eIF-2 (eIF-2 alpha) occurred concomitantly; the levels of these phosphorylations confluent and thereafter decreased markedly. Treatment of cells with IFN at all stages of growth resulted in an increase in phosphorylation of dsI. 3T3-F442A and 3T3-C2 fibroblasts were found to produce and secrete IFN at levels sufficient to induce an elevated dsI activity.     

Incorporation of biological information in cancer risk assessment: Example — Vinyl chloride

Vinyl chloride (VC) is used as an example to demonstrate how biological information can be incorporated into quantitative risk assessment. The information included is the pharmacokinetics of VC in animals and humans and the data-generated hypothesis that VC primarily affects the initiation stage of the multistage carcinogenesis. The emphasis in this paper is on the improvement of risk assessment methodology rather than the risk assessment of VC per se.Sufficient data are available to construct physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models for both animals and humans. These models are used to calculate the metabolized dose corresponding to exposure scenarios in animals and in humans.On the basis of the data on liver angiosarcomas and carcinomas in rats, the cancer risk per unit of metabolized dose is comparable, irrespective of routes (oral or inhalation) of exposure. The tumor response from an intermittent/partial lifetime exposure is shown to be consistent with that from a lifetime exposure when VC is assumed to affect the first (initiation) stage of the multistage carcinogenic process. Furthermore, the risk estimates calculated on the basis of animal data are shown to be consistent with the human experience.