Syndromic Surveillance for Local Outbreaks of Lower-Respiratory Infections: Would It Work?

Background

Although syndromic surveillance is increasingly used to detect unusual illness, there is a debate whether it is useful for detecting local outbreaks. We evaluated whether syndromic surveillance detects local outbreaks of lower-respiratory infections (LRIs) without swamping true signals by false alarms.

Methods and Findings

Using retrospective hospitalization data, we simulated prospective surveillance for LRI-elevations. Between 1999–2006, a total of 290762 LRIs were included by date of hospitalization and patients place of residence (>80% coverage, 16 million population). Two large outbreaks of Legionnaires disease in the Netherlands were used as positive controls to test whether these outbreaks could have been detected as local LRI elevations. We used a space-time permutation scan statistic to detect LRI clusters. We evaluated how many LRI-clusters were detected in 1999–2006 and assessed likely causes for the cluster-signals by looking for significantly higher proportions of specific hospital discharge diagnoses (e.g. Legionnaires disease) and overlap with regional influenza elevations. We also evaluated whether the number of space-time signals can be reduced by restricting the scan statistic in space or time. In 1999–2006 the scan-statistic detected 35 local LRI clusters, representing on average 5 clusters per year. The known Legionnaires'' disease outbreaks in 1999 and 2006 were detected as LRI-clusters, since cluster-signals were generated with an increased proportion of Legionnaires disease patients (p:<0.0001). 21 other clusters coincided with local influenza and/or respiratory syncytial virus activity, and 1 cluster appeared to be a data artifact. For 11 clusters no likely cause was defined, some possibly representing as yet undetected LRI-outbreaks. With restrictions on time and spatial windows the scan statistic still detected the Legionnaires'' disease outbreaks, without loss of timeliness and with less signals generated in time (up to 42% decline).

Conclusions

To our knowledge this is the first study that systematically evaluates the performance of space-time syndromic surveillance with nationwide high coverage data over a longer period. The results show that syndromic surveillance can detect local LRI-outbreaks in a timely manner, independent of laboratory-based outbreak detection. Furthermore, since comparatively few new clusters per year were observed that would prompt investigation, syndromic hospital-surveillance could be a valuable tool for detection of local LRI-outbreaks.     

Distributions of Potential in Cylindrical Coordinates and Time Constants for a Membrane Cylinder

A mathematical problem relating to membrane cylinders is stated and solved; its implications are illustrated and discussed. The problem concerns the volume distribution, in cylindrical coordinates, of the electric potential inside and outside a membrane cylinder of finite length (with sealed ends), during passive decay of an initially nonuniform membrane potential. The time constants for equalization with respect to the angle, theta, are shown to be typically about ten thousand times smaller than the time constant, tau(m) = R(m)C(m), for uniform passive membrane potential decay. The time constants for equalization with respect to length are shown to agree with those from one-dimensional cable theory; typically, they are smaller than tau(m) by a factor between 2 and 10. The relation of the membrane current density, I(m)(theta, x, t), to the values (at the outer membrane surface) of the extracellular potential phi(e)(r, theta, x, t) and of partial differential(2)phi(e)/ partial differentialx(2), is examined and it is shown that these quantities are not proportional to each other, in general; however, under certain specified conditions, all three of these quantities are proportional with each other and with phi(i)(r, theta, x, t) and partial differential(2)phi(i)/ partial differentialx(2) (at the inner membrane surface). The relation of these results to those of one-dimensional cable theory is discussed.     

Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.     

Diagnostic performance of capillary and venous blood samples in the detection of Loa loa and Mansonella perstans microfilaraemia using light microscopy

BackgroundLoa loa and Mansonella perstans–the causative agents of loiasis and mansonellosis—are vector-borne filarial parasites co-endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Diagnosis of both infections is usually established by microscopic analysis of blood samples. It was recently established that the odds for detecting Plasmodium spp. is higher in capillary (CAP) blood than in venous (VEN) blood. In analogy to this finding this analysis evaluates potential differences in microfilaraemia of L. loa and M. perstans in samples of CAP and VEN blood.MethodsRecruitment took place between 2015 and 2019 at the CERMEL in Lambaréné, Gabon and its surrounding villages. Persons of all ages presenting to diagnostic services of the research center around noon were invited to participate in the study. A thick smear of each 10 microliters of CAP and VEN blood was prepared and analysed by a minimum of two independent microscopists. Differences of log2-transformed CAP and VEN microfilaraemia were computed and expressed as percentages. Furthermore, odds ratios for paired data were computed to quantify the odds to detect microfilariae in CAP blood versus in VEN blood.ResultsA total of 713 participants were recruited among whom 52% were below 30 years of age, 27% between 30–59 years of age and 21% above 60 years of age. Male-female ratio was 0.84. Among 152 participants with microscopically-confirmed L. loa infection median (IQR) microfilaraemia was 3,650 (275–11,100) per milliliter blood in CAP blood and 2,775 (200–8,875) in VEN blood (p<0.0001), while among 102 participants with M. perstans this was 100 (0–200) and 100 (0–200), respectively (p = 0.44). Differences in linear models amount up to an average of +34.5% (95% CI: +11.0 to +63.0) higher L. loa microfilaria quantity in CAP blood versus VEN blood and for M. perstans it was on average higher by +24.8% (95% CI: +0.0 to +60.5). Concordantly, the odds for detection of microfilaraemia in CAP samples versus VEN samples was 1.24 (95% CI: 0.65–2.34) and 1.65 (95% CI: 1.0–2.68) for infections with L. loa and M. perstans, respectively.ConclusionThis analysis indicates that average levels of microfilaraemia of L. loa are higher in CAP blood samples than in VEN blood samples. This might have implications for treatment algorithms of onchocerciasis and loiasis, in which exact quantification of L. loa microfilaraemia is of importance. Furthermore, the odds for detection of M. perstans microfilariae was higher in CAP than in VEN blood which may pre-dispose CAP blood for detection of M. perstans infection in large epidemiological studies when sampling of large blood quantities is not feasible. No solid evidence for a higher odds of L. loa microfilariae detection in CAP blood was revealed, which might be explained by generally high levels of L. loa microfilaraemia in CAP and VEN blood above the limit of detection of 100 microfilariae/ml. Yet, it cannot be excluded that the study was underpowered to detect a moderate difference.