Prediction of dengue incidence using search query surveillance

Background

The use of internet search data has been demonstrated to be effective at predicting influenza incidence. This approach may be more successful for dengue which has large variation in annual incidence and a more distinctive clinical presentation and mode of transmission.

Methods

We gathered freely-available dengue incidence data from Singapore (weekly incidence, 2004–2011) and Bangkok (monthly incidence, 2004–2011). Internet search data for the same period were downloaded from Google Insights for Search. Search terms were chosen to reflect three categories of dengue-related search: nomenclature, signs/symptoms, and treatment. We compared three models to predict incidence: a step-down linear regression, generalized boosted regression, and negative binomial regression. Logistic regression and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models were used to predict a binary outcome defined by whether dengue incidence exceeded a chosen threshold. Incidence prediction models were assessed using and Pearson correlation between predicted and observed dengue incidence. Logistic and SVM model performance were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Models were validated using multiple cross-validation techniques.

Results

The linear model selected by AIC step-down was found to be superior to other models considered. In Bangkok, the model has an , and a correlation of 0.869 between fitted and observed. In Singapore, the model has an , and a correlation of 0.931. In both Singapore and Bangkok, SVM models outperformed logistic regression in predicting periods of high incidence. The AUC for the SVM models using the 75th percentile cutoff is 0.906 in Singapore and 0.960 in Bangkok.

Conclusions

Internet search terms predict incidence and periods of large incidence of dengue with high accuracy and may prove useful in areas with underdeveloped surveillance systems. The methods presented here use freely available data and analysis tools and can be readily adapted to other settings.     

Using Affordable LED Arrays for Photo-Stimulation of Neurons

Standard slice electrophysiology has allowed researchers to probe individual components of neural circuitry by recording electrical responses of single cells in response to electrical or pharmacological manipulations^1,2. With the invention of methods to optically control genetically targeted neurons (optogenetics), researchers now have an unprecedented level of control over specific groups of neurons in the standard slice preparation. In particular, photosensitive channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2) allows researchers to activate neurons with light^3,4. By combining careful calibration of LED-based photostimulation of ChR2 with standard slice electrophysiology, we are able to probe with greater detail the role of adult-born interneurons in the olfactory bulb, the first central relay of the olfactory system. Using viral expression of ChR2-YFP specifically in adult-born neurons, we can selectively control young adult-born neurons in a milieu of older and mature neurons. Our optical control uses a simple and inexpensive LED system, and we show how this system can be calibrated to understand how much light is needed to evoke spiking activity in single neurons. Hence, brief flashes of blue light can remotely control the firing pattern of ChR2-transduced newborn cells.Download video file.^{(48M, mov)}     

From cosubstrate similarity to inhibitor diversity--inhibitors of ADP-ribosyltransferases from kinase inhibitor screening

ADP-ribosyltransferases (ADP-RTs) use NAD(+) to transfer an ADP-ribosyl group to target proteins. Although some ADP-RTs are bacterial toxins only few inhibitors are known. Here we present the development of fluorescence-based assays and a focussed library screening using kinase inhibitors as a new approach towards inhibitors of ADP-RTs. Different screening setups were established using surrogate small molecule substrates or the quantitation of the cofactor NAD(+). Proof-of-principle screening experiments were performed using a kinase inhibitor library in order to target the NAD(+) binding pockets. This led to the discovery of structurally different lead inhibitors for the mono-ADP-ribosyltransferases Mosquitocidal toxin (MTX) from Bacillus sphaericus SSII-1, C3bot toxin from Clostridium botulinum and CDTa from Clostridium difficile. The interaction of the inhibitors with the toxin proteins was analyzed by means of docking and binding free energy calculations. Binding at the nicotinamide subpocket, which shows a significant difference in the three enzymes, is used to explain the selectivity of the identified inhibitors and offers an opportunity for further development of potent and selective inhibitors.     

Elimination of tumorigenic stem cells from differentiated progeny and selection of definitive endoderm reveals a Pdx1+ foregut endoderm stem cell lineage

Embryonic stem cell (ESC) derivatives offer promise for generating clinically useful tissues for transplantation, yet the specter of producing tumors in patients remains a significant concern. We have developed a simple method that eliminates the tumorigenic potential from differentiated ESC cultures of murine and human origin while purifying lineage-restricted, definitive endoderm-committed cells. A three-stage scheme utilizing magnetic bead sorting and specific antibodies to remove undifferentiated ESCs and extraembryonic endoderm cells, followed by positive selection of definitive endoderm cells on the basis of epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) expression, was used to isolate a population of EpCAM(+)SSEA1(-)SSEA3(-) cells. Sorted cells do not form teratomas after transplantation into immunodeficient mice, but display gene and protein expression profiles indicative of definitive endoderm cells. Sorted cells could be subsequently expanded in vitro and further differentiated to express key pancreas specification proteins. In vivo transplantation of sorted cells resulted in small, benign tissues that uniformly express PDX1. These studies describe a straightforward method without genetic manipulation that eliminates the risk of teratoma formation from ESC differentiated derivatives. Significantly, enriched populations isolated by this method appear to be lineage-restricted definitive endoderm cells with limited proliferation capacity.     

Ultraviolet irradiation induces the accumulation of chondroitin sulfate, but not other glycosaminoglycans, in human skin

Ultraviolet (UV) light alters cutaneous structure and function. Prior work has shown loss of dermal hyaluronan after UV-irradiation of human skin, yet UV exposure increases total glycosaminoglycan (GAG) content in mouse models. To more fully describe UV-induced alterations to cutaneous GAG content, we subjected human volunteers to intermediate-term (5 doses/week for 4 weeks) or single-dose UV exposure. Total dermal uronyl-containing GAGs increased substantially with each of these regimens. We found that UV exposure substantially increased dermal content of chondroitin sulfate (CS), but not hyaluronan, heparan sulfate, or dermatan sulfate. UV induced the accumulation of both the 4-sulfated (C4S) and 6-sulfated (C6S) isoforms of CS, but in distinct distributions. Next, we examined several CS proteoglycan core proteins and found a significant accumulation of dermal and endothelial serglycin, but not of decorin or versican, after UV exposure. To examine regulation in vitro, we found that UVB in combination with IL-1α, a cytokine upregulated by UV radiation, induced serglycin mRNA in cultured dermal fibroblasts, but did not induce the chondroitin sulfate synthases. Overall, our data indicate that intermediate-term and single-dose UVB exposure induces specific GAGs and proteoglycan core proteins in human skin in vivo. These molecules have important biologic functions and contribute to the cutaneous response to UV.     

Proteomic interrogation of human chromatin

Chromatin proteins provide a scaffold for DNA packaging and a basis for epigenetic regulation and genomic maintenance. Despite understanding its functional roles, mapping the chromatin proteome (i.e. the "Chromatome") is still a continuing process. Here, we assess the biological specificity and proteomic extent of three distinct chromatin preparations by identifying proteins in selected chromatin-enriched fractions using mass spectrometry-based proteomics. These experiments allowed us to produce a chromatin catalog, including several proteins ranging from highly abundant histone proteins to less abundant members of different chromatin machinery complexes. Using a Normalized Spectral Abundance Factor approach, we quantified relative abundances of the proteins across the chromatin enriched fractions giving a glimpse into their chromosomal abundance. The large-scale data sets also allowed for the discovery of a variety of novel post-translational modifications on the identified chromatin proteins. With these comparisons, we find one of the probed methods to be qualitatively superior in specificity for chromatin proteins, but inferior in proteomic extent, evidencing a compromise that must be made between biological specificity and broadness of characterization. Additionally, we attempt to identify proteins in eu- and heterochromatin, verifying the enrichments by characterizing the post-translational modifications detected on histone proteins from these chromatin regions. In summary, our results provide insights into the value of different methods to extract chromatin-associated proteins and provide starting points to study the factors that may be involved in directing gene expression and other chromatin-related processes.     

Familial adenomatous polyposis-associated desmoids display significantly more genetic changes than sporadic desmoids

Desmoid tumours (also called deep or aggressive fibromatoses) are potentially life-threatening fibromatous lesions. Hereditary desmoid tumours arise in individuals affected by either familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) or hereditary desmoid disease (HDD) carrying germline mutations in APC. Most sporadic desmoids carry somatic mutations in CTNNB1. Previous studies identified losses on 5q and 6q, and gains on 8q and 20q as recurrent genetic changes in desmoids. However, virtually all genetic changes were derived from sporadic tumours. To investigate the somatic alterations in FAP-associated desmoids and to compare them with changes occurring in sporadic tumours, we analysed 17 FAP-associated and 38 sporadic desmoids by array comparative genomic hybridisation and multiple ligation-dependent probe amplification. Overall, the desmoids displayed only a limited number of genetic changes, occurring in 44% of cases. Recurrent gains at 8q (7%) and 20q (5%) were almost exclusively found in sporadic tumours. Recurrent losses were observed for a 700 kb region at 5q22.2, comprising the APC gene (11%), a 2 Mb region at 6p21.2-p21.1 (15%), and a relatively large region at 6q15-q23.3 (20%). The FAP-associated desmoids displayed a significantly higher frequency of copy number abnormalities (59%) than the sporadic tumours (37%). As predicted by the APC germline mutations among these patients, a high percentage (29%) of FAP-associated desmoids showed loss of the APC region at 5q22.2, which was infrequently (3%) seen among sporadic tumours. Our data suggest that loss of region 6q15-q16.2 is an important event in FAP-associated as well as sporadic desmoids, most likely of relevance for desmoid tumour progression.