Modeling influenza seasonality in the tropics and subtropics

Climate drivers such as humidity and temperature may play a key role in influenza seasonal transmission dynamics. Such a relationship has been well defined for temperate regions. However, to date no models capable of capturing the diverse seasonal pattern in tropical and subtropical climates exist. In addition, multiple influenza viruses could cocirculate and shape epidemic dynamics. Here we construct seven mechanistic epidemic models to test the effect of two major climate drivers (humidity and temperature) and multi-strain co-circulation on influenza transmission in Hong Kong, an influenza epidemic center located in the subtropics. Based on model fit to long-term influenza surveillance data from 1998 to 2018, we found that a simple model incorporating the effect of both humidity and temperature best recreated the influenza epidemic patterns observed in Hong Kong. The model quantifies a bimodal effect of absolute humidity on influenza transmission where both low and very high humidity levels facilitate transmission quadratically; the model also quantifies the monotonic but nonlinear relationship with temperature. In addition, model results suggest that, at the population level, a shorter immunity period can approximate the co-circulation of influenza virus (sub)types. The basic reproductive number R₀ estimated by the best-fit model is also consistent with laboratory influenza survival and transmission studies under various combinations of humidity and temperature levels. Overall, our study has developed a simple mechanistic model capable of quantifying the impact of climate drivers on influenza transmission in (sub)tropical regions. This model can be applied to improve influenza forecasting in the (sub)tropics in the future.     

High-Resolution,Non-Invasive Imaging of Upper Vocal Tract Articulators Compatible with Human Brain Recordings

A complete neurobiological understanding of speech motor control requires determination of the relationship between simultaneously recorded neural activity and the kinematics of the lips, jaw, tongue, and larynx. Many speech articulators are internal to the vocal tract, and therefore simultaneously tracking the kinematics of all articulators is nontrivial—especially in the context of human electrophysiology recordings. Here, we describe a noninvasive, multi-modal imaging system to monitor vocal tract kinematics, demonstrate this system in six speakers during production of nine American English vowels, and provide new analysis of such data. Classification and regression analysis revealed considerable variability in the articulator-to-acoustic relationship across speakers. Non-negative matrix factorization extracted basis sets capturing vocal tract shapes allowing for higher vowel classification accuracy than traditional methods. Statistical speech synthesis generated speech from vocal tract measurements, and we demonstrate perceptual identification. We demonstrate the capacity to predict lip kinematics from ventral sensorimotor cortical activity. These results demonstrate a multi-modal system to non-invasively monitor articulator kinematics during speech production, describe novel analytic methods for relating kinematic data to speech acoustics, and provide the first decoding of speech kinematics from electrocorticography. These advances will be critical for understanding the cortical basis of speech production and the creation of vocal prosthetics.     

Activation of CD74 inhibits migration of human mesenchymal stem cells

Therapeutic administration of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) by systemic delivery utilizes the innate ability of the cells to home to damaged tissues, but it can be an inefficient process due to a limited knowledge of cellular cues that regulate migration and homing. Our lab recently discovered that a potent pro-inflammatory cytokine, macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF), inhibits MSC migration. Because MIF may act on multiple cellular targets, an activating antibody (CD74Ab) was employed in this study to examine the effect of one MIF receptor, CD74 (major histocompatibility complex class II-associated invariant chain), on MSC motility. CD74 activation inhibits in a dose-dependent manner up to 90% of in vitro migration of MSCs at 40 μg/ml CD74Ab (p?<?0.001), with consistent effects observed among three MSC donor preparations. A blocking peptide from the C-terminus of CD74 eliminates the effect of CD74Ab on MSCs. This suggests that MIF may act on MSCs, at least in part, through CD74. Late-passage MSCs exhibit less chemokinesis than those at passage 2. However, MSCs remain responsive to CD74 activation during ex vivo expansion: MSC migration is inhibited ～2-fold in the presence of 5 µg/ml CD74Ab at passage 9 vs. ～3-fold at passage 2 (p?<?0.001). Consistent with this result, there were no significant differences in CD74 expression at all tested passages or after CD74Ab exposure. Targeting CD74 to regulate migration and homing potentially may be a useful strategy to improve the efficacy of a variety of MSC therapies, including those that require ex vivo expansion.     

An Excess of Deleterious Variants in VEGF-A Pathway Genes in Down-Syndrome-Associated Atrioventricular Septal Defects

About half of people with trisomy 21 have a congenital heart defect (CHD), whereas the remainder have a structurally normal heart, demonstrating that trisomy 21 is a significant risk factor but is not causal for abnormal heart development. Atrioventricular septal defects (AVSD) are the most commonly occurring heart defects in Down syndrome (DS), and ∼65% of all AVSD is associated with DS. We used a candidate-gene approach among individuals with DS and complete AVSD (cases = 141) and DS with no CHD (controls = 141) to determine whether rare genetic variants in genes involved in atrioventricular valvuloseptal morphogenesis contribute to AVSD in this sensitized population. We found a significant excess (p < 0.0001) of variants predicted to be deleterious in cases compared to controls. At the most stringent level of filtering, we found potentially damaging variants in nearly 20% of cases but fewer than 3% of controls. The variants with the highest probability of being damaging in cases only were found in six genes: COL6A1, COL6A2, CRELD1, FBLN2, FRZB, and GATA5. Several of the case-specific variants were recurrent in unrelated individuals, occurring in 10% of cases studied. No variants with an equal probability of being damaging were found in controls, demonstrating a highly specific association with AVSD. Of note, all of these genes are in the VEGF-A pathway, even though the candidate genes analyzed in this study represented numerous biochemical and developmental pathways, suggesting that rare variants in the VEGF-A pathway might contribute to the genetic underpinnings of AVSD in humans.     

Menstrual cycle phase and oral contraceptive effects on triglyceride mobilization during exercise.

We examined the effects of menstrual cycle phase and oral contraceptive (OC) use on triglyceride mobilization during 90 min of rest and 60 min of leg ergometry exercise at 45 and 65% peak O(2) uptake (Vo(2 peak)) in eight moderately physically active, eumenorrheic women (24.8 +/- 1.2 yr). Subjects were tested during the follicular phase (FP) and the luteal phase (LP) before OC use and during the inactive phase (IP) and high-dose phase (HP) after 4 complete mo of OC use. Glycerol rate of appearance (R(a)), a measure of triglyceride mobilization, was determined in a 3-h postabsorptive state using a primed constant infusion of [1,1,2,3,3-(2)H]glycerol. Before OC use (BOC), there were no significant differences between FP and LP in any of the variables studied. Dietary composition, exercise patterns, plasma glycerol concentrations, growth hormone concentrations, and exercise respiratory exchange ratio did not change with OC use. However, 4 mo of OC use significantly (P < 0.05) increased glycerol R(a) in HP during exercise at 45% Vo(2 peak) (6.2 +/- 0.2, 6.5 +/- 0.4, and 7.7 +/- 1.1 micromol.kg(-1).min(-1) for BOC, IP, and HP, respectively) and in IP and HP at 65% Vo(2 peak) (6.6 +/- 0.1, 8.2 +/- 0.6, and 8.1 +/- 0.7 micromol.kg(-1).min(-1) for BOC, IP, and HP, respectively). Plasma cortisol concentrations were significantly higher with OC use at rest and during exercise at 45 and 65% Vo(2 peak). In summary, although fluctuations of endogenous ovarian steroids have little effect on triglyceride mobilization, the synthetic ovarian steroids found in OCs increase triglyceride mobilization and plasma cortisol concentrations in exercising women. We conclude that the hierarchy of effects of ovarian steroids and their analogs on triglyceride mobilization in exercising women is as follows: energy flux > OC use > recent carbohydrate nutrition, menstrual cycle effects.     

Response to a Respiratory Survey

Respondents to a respiratory survey of Berlin, New Hampshire, residents in 1961 have been studied to assess the relationship between co-operation and respiratory disease prevalence. Two hundred and forty-three unco-operative subjects, interviewed at home, had significantly more morning phlegm and a lower vital capacity than carefully matched subjects who attended the central clinic. Fifty-one volunteers had the same prevalence of respiratory disease symptoms and physiological abnormalities as carefully matched subjects drawn from a probability sample of the city.It is concluded that respiratory disease prevalence will be underestimated if calculated from studies of co-operative subjects who attend a clinic. Case-finding by respiratory disease screening clinics will also miss many persons who suffer from chronic bronchitis.