A clinical return-to-work rule for patients with back pain

Background

Tools for early identification of workers with back pain who are at high risk of adverse occupational outcome would help concentrate clinical attention on the patients who need it most, while helping reduce unnecessary interventions (and costs) among the others. This study was conducted to develop and validate clinical rules to predict the 2-year work disability status of people consulting for nonspecific back pain in primary care settings.

Methods

This was a 2-year prospective cohort study conducted in 7 primary care settings in the Quebec City area. The study enrolled 1007 workers (participation, 68.4% of potential participants expected to be eligible) aged 18–64 years who consulted for nonspecific back pain associated with at least 1 day''s absence from work. The majority (86%) completed 5 telephone interviews documenting a large array of variables. Clinical information was abstracted from the medical files. The outcome measure was “return to work in good health” at 2 years, a variable that combined patients'' occupational status, functional limitations and recurrences of work absence. Predictive models of 2-year outcome were developed with a recursive partitioning approach on a 40% random sample of our study subjects, then validated on the rest.

Results

The best predictive model included 7 baseline variables (patient''s recovery expectations, radiating pain, previous back surgery, pain intensity, frequent change of position because of back pain, irritability and bad temper, and difficulty sleeping) and was particularly efficient at identifying patients with no adverse occupational outcome (negative predictive value 78%– 94%).

Interpretation

A clinical prediction rule accurately identified a large proportion of workers with back pain consulting in a primary care setting who were at a low risk of an adverse occupational outcome.Since the 1950s, back pain has taken on the proportions of a veritable epidemic, counting now among the 5 most frequent reasons for visits to physicians'' offices in North America^1,2,3 and ranking sixth among health problems generating the highest direct medical costs.⁴ Because of its high incidence and associated expense, effective intervention for back pain has great potential for improving population health and for freeing up extensive societal resources.So-called red flags to identify pain that is specific (i.e., pain in the back originating from tumours, fractures, infections, cauda equina syndrome, visceral pain and systemic disease)⁵ account for about 3% of all cases of back pain.⁶ The overwhelming majority of back-pain problems are thus nonspecific. One important feature of nonspecific back pain among workers is that a small proportion of cases (< 10%) accounts for most of the costs (> 70%).^{7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14} This fact has led investigators to focus on the early identification of patients who are at higher risk of disability, so that specialized interventions can be provided earlier, whereas other patients can be expected to recover with conservative care.^{9,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25} Although this goal has become much sought-after in back-pain research, most available studies in this area have 3 methodological problems:

• Potential predictors are often limited to administrative or clinical data, whereas it is clear that back pain is a multidimensional health problem.
• The outcome variable is most often a 1-point dichotomous measure of return to work, time off work or duration of compensation, although some authors have warned against the use of first return to work as a measure of recovery. Baldwin and colleagues,²⁶ for instance, point out that first return to work is frequently followed by recurrences of work absence.
• Most published prediction rules developed for back pain have not been successfully validated on any additional samples of patients.

Our study aimed to build a simple predictive tool that could be used by primary care physicians to identify workers with nonspecific back pain who are at higher risk of long-term adverse occupational outcomes, and then to validate this tool on a fresh sample of subjects.     

A novel application of entropy analysis for assessing changes in movement variability during cumulative tackles in young elite rugby league players

The aim of this study was to identify between-position (forwards vs. backs) differences in movement variability in cumulative tackle events training during both attacking and defensive roles. Eleven elite adolescent male rugby league players volunteered to participate in this study (mean ± SD, age; 18.5 ± 0.5 years, height; 179.5 ± 5.0 cm, body mass; 88.3 ± 13.0 kg). Participants performed a drill encompassing four blocks of six tackling (i.e. tackling an opponent) and six tackled (i.e. being tackled by an opponent while carrying a ball) events (i.e. 48 total tackles) while wearing a micro-technological inertial measurement unit (WIMU, Realtrack Systems, Spain). The acceleration data were used to calculate sample entropy (SampEn) to analyse the movement variability during tackles performance. In tackling actions SampEn showed significant between-position differences in block 1 (p = 0.0001) and block 2 (p = 0.0003). Significant between-block differences were observed in backs (block 1 vs 3, p = 0,0021; and block 1 vs 4, p = 0,0001) but not in forwards. When being tackled, SampEn showed significant between-position differences in block 1 (p = 0.0007) and block 3 (p = 0.0118). Significant between-block differences were only observed for backs in block 1 vs 4 (p = 0,0025). Movement variability shows a progressive reduction with cumulative tackle events, especially in backs and when in the defensive role (tackling). Forwards present lower movement variability values in all blocks, particularly in the first block, both in the attacking and defensive role. Entropy measures can be used by practitioners as an alternative tool to analyse the temporal structure of variability of tackle actions and quantify the load of these actions according to playing position.     

The Population Decline and Extinction of Darwin’s Frogs

Darwin’s frogs (Rhinoderma darwinii and R. rufum) are two species of mouth-brooding frogs from Chile and Argentina. Here, we present evidence on the extent of declines, current distribution and conservation status of Rhinoderma spp.; including information on abundance, habitat and threats to extant Darwin’s frog populations. All known archived Rhinoderma specimens were examined in museums in North America, Europe and South America. Extensive surveys were carried out throughout the historical ranges of R. rufum and R. darwinii from 2008 to 2012. Literature review and location data of 2,244 archived specimens were used to develop historical distribution maps for Rhinoderma spp. Based on records of sightings, optimal linear estimation was used to estimate whether R. rufum can be considered extinct. No extant R. rufum was found and our modelling inferred that this species became extinct in 1982 (95% CI, 1980–2000). Rhinoderma darwinii was found in 36 sites. All populations were within native forest and abundance was highest in Chiloé Island, when compared with Coast, Andes and South populations. Estimated population size and density (five populations) averaged 33.2 frogs/population (range, 10.2–56.3) and 14.9 frogs/100 m² (range, 5.3–74.1), respectively. Our results provide further evidence that R. rufum is extinct and indicate that R. darwinii has declined to a much greater degree than previously recognised. Although this species can still be found across a large part of its historical range, remaining populations are small and severely fragmented. Conservation efforts for R. darwinii should be stepped up and the species re-classified as Endangered.     

Multivariate discrimination between East African cape hares (Lepus capensis) and savanna hares (L. victoriae) based on occipital bone shape

In East Africa, cape hares (Lepus capensis) and savanna hares (L. victoriae) look much alike where their ranges overlap. Earlier studies suggested discrimination between the two species by several skull traits, but did not present morphometric statisitics. Our present discriminant analysis based on seven metric variables of the occipital bone related to skull length (condylobasal length) resulted in a high (95.1%) overall probability of correct separation of the two species. While all cape hares were classified correctly, correct classification was a bit lower in savanna hares (88.2%). A principal components analysis of the same variables confirmed the shape difference for the two species. Both region and sex-specific variation in the shape of the studied occipital bone complex was found in savanna hares but not in cape hares. The somewhat reduced level of correct identification of savanna hares might be due to a tendency for higher shape variation. Application of our discriminant analysis to other regions in East Africa is discussed.     

Risk of vertical transmission of hepatitis B virus in Tunisia

The risk of vertical transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) varies with type of viral endemicity, degree of maternal infection and genomic characteristics of the virus. The aim of this study is to estimate this risk in Tunisia using serological and molecular methods to evaluate HBV replication, to determine viral genotypes and to detect presence of occult hepatitis in 2709 pregnant women. Serological markers were detected by ELISA methods, Genotype was determined by PCR-RFLP and occult hepatitis by nested-PCR. Four percent of women were positive for HBsAg; only 3% of them were also positive for HBeAg. Viral replication, over than 10(3) copies/ml, was detected in 61% of positive HBsAg patients. Three viral genotypes were detected: D (95%), B (3%) and A (3%). Occult hepatitis was detected in 4% of sera with "anti-HBc isolated" profile. In conclusion, the risk of vertical transmission of HBV exists in Tunisia. It increases by frequency of precore mutants, predominance of the genotype previously associated with high levels of replication and possibility of occult hepatitis B. These results show the importance of screening by serological HBV markers systematically during pregnancy with evaluation of viral replication in order to prevent vertical risk by efficient tools.