Host isolation and patterns of genetic variability in three populations of Teladorsagia from sheep

We have used a mitochondrial marker to explore the population genetics of an economically important parasite of sheep, Teladorsagia. We examined diversity within and between parasites from three very different host populations, as well as within and between individual hosts. One of our study populations, the Soay sheep on Hirta, St Kilda, is unusually isolated with no sheep having been introduced to the island since 1932. Worm haplotypes from Hirta were compared with those from two other host populations. Remarkably, despite its historical isolation the Hirta population shows similar levels of within-population diversity to the other study populations. No divergence between the three Teladorsagia populations was found, consistent with gene flow between the populations. The high diversity within Teladorsagia populations provides compelling evidence that this variability is a general feature of parasitic nematode populations. Such diversity may be caused by high effective population size, coupled with an increased mutation rate for mtDNA, which has important implications for the spread of anthelmintic resistance in nematode populations.     

Drug-resistant parasites and aggregated infection – early-season dynamics

We investigate the effect of spatial aggregation in the infection dynamics of nematode parasites in ruminants. We show that a high degree of spatial aggregation is likely to lead to a dramatically enhanced rate of invasion by drug-resistant strains. Received: 13 December 1999 / Revised version: 3 April 2000 / Published online: 4 October 2000     

Evolution of an Eurasian Avian-like Influenza Virus in Na?ve and Vaccinated Pigs

Influenza viruses are characterized by an ability to cross species boundaries and evade host immunity, sometimes with devastating consequences. The 2009 pandemic of H1N1 influenza A virus highlights the importance of pigs in influenza emergence, particularly as intermediate hosts by which avian viruses adapt to mammals before emerging in humans. Although segment reassortment has commonly been associated with influenza emergence, an expanded host-range is also likely to be associated with the accumulation of specific beneficial point mutations. To better understand the mechanisms that shape the genetic diversity of avian-like viruses in pigs, we studied the evolutionary dynamics of an Eurasian Avian-like swine influenza virus (EA-SIV) in naïve and vaccinated pigs linked by natural transmission. We analyzed multiple clones of the hemagglutinin 1 (HA1) gene derived from consecutive daily viral populations. Strikingly, we observed both transient and fixed changes in the consensus sequence along the transmission chain. Hence, the mutational spectrum of intra-host EA-SIV populations is highly dynamic and allele fixation can occur with extreme rapidity. In addition, mutations that could potentially alter host-range and antigenicity were transmitted between animals and mixed infections were commonplace, even in vaccinated pigs. Finally, we repeatedly detected distinct stop codons in virus samples from co-housed pigs, suggesting that they persisted within hosts and were transmitted among them. This implies that mutations that reduce viral fitness in one host, but which could lead to fitness benefits in a novel host, can circulate at low frequencies.     

Linking influenza virus tissue tropism to population-level reproductive fitness

Influenza virus tissue tropism defines the host cells and tissues that support viral replication and contributes to determining which regions of the respiratory tract are infected in humans. The location of influenza virus infection along the respiratory tract is a key determinant of virus pathogenicity and transmissibility, which are at the basis of influenza burdens in the human population. As the pathogenicity and transmissibility of influenza virus ultimately determine its reproductive fitness at the population level, strong selective pressures will shape influenza virus tissue tropisms that maximize fitness. At present, the relationships between influenza virus tissue tropism within hosts and reproductive fitness at the population level are poorly understood. The selective pressures and constraints that shape tissue tropism and thereby influence the location of influenza virus infection along the respiratory tract are not well characterized. We use mathematical models that link within-host infection dynamics in a spatially-structured human respiratory tract to between-host transmission dynamics, with the aim of characterizing the possible selective pressures on influenza virus tissue tropism. The results indicate that spatial heterogeneities in virus clearance, virus pathogenicity or both, resulting from the unique structure of the respiratory tract, may drive optimal receptor binding affinity-that maximizes influenza virus reproductive fitness at the population level-towards sialic acids with α2,6 linkage to galactose. The expanding cell pool deeper down the respiratory tract, in association with lower clearance rates, may result in optimal infectivity rates-that likewise maximize influenza virus reproductive fitness at the population level-to exhibit a decreasing trend towards deeper regions of the respiratory tract. Lastly, pre-existing immunity may drive influenza virus tissue tropism towards upper regions of the respiratory tract. The proposed framework provides a new template for the cross-scale study of influenza virus evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics in humans.     

Understanding reduced rotavirus vaccine efficacy in low socio-economic settings

Introduction

Rotavirus vaccine efficacy ranges from >90% in high socio-economic settings (SES) to 50% in low SES. With the imminent introduction of rotavirus vaccine in low SES countries, understanding reasons for reduced efficacy in these settings could identify strategies to improve vaccine performance.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model to predict rotavirus vaccine efficacy in high, middle and low SES based on data specific for each setting on incidence, protection conferred by natural infection and immune response to vaccination. We then examined factors affecting efficacy.

Results

Vaccination was predicted to prevent 93%, 86% and 51% of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis in high, middle and low SES, respectively. Also predicted was that vaccines are most effective against severe disease and efficacy declines with age in low but not high SES. Reduced immunogenicity of vaccination and reduced protection conferred by natural infection are the main factors that compromise efficacy in low SES.

Discussion

The continued risk of severe disease in non-primary natural infections in low SES is a key factor underpinning reduced efficacy of rotavirus vaccines. Predicted efficacy was remarkably consistent with observed clinical trial results from different SES, validating the model. The phenomenon of reduced vaccine efficacy can be predicted by intrinsic immunological and epidemiological factors of low SES populations. Modifying aspects of the vaccine (e.g. improving immunogenicity in low SES) and vaccination program (e.g. additional doses) may bring improvements.     

Direct and indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination: comparing predictions from transmission dynamic models

Early observations from countries that have introduced rotavirus vaccination suggest that there may be indirect protection for unvaccinated individuals, but it is unclear whether these benefits will extend to the long term. Transmission dynamic models have attempted to quantify the indirect protection that might be expected from rotavirus vaccination in developed countries, but results have varied. To better understand the magnitude and sources of variability in model projections, we undertook a comparative analysis of transmission dynamic models for rotavirus. We fit five models to reported rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) data from England and Wales, and evaluated outcomes for short- and long-term vaccination effects. All of our models reproduced the important features of rotavirus epidemics in England and Wales. Models predicted that during the initial year after vaccine introduction, incidence of severe RVGE would be reduced 1.8-2.9 times more than expected from the direct effects of the vaccine alone (28-50% at 90% coverage), but over a 5-year period following vaccine introduction severe RVGE would be reduced only by 1.1-1.7 times more than expected from the direct effects (54-90% at 90% coverage). Projections for the long-term reduction of severe RVGE ranged from a 55% reduction at full coverage to elimination with at least 80% coverage. Our models predicted short-term reductions in the incidence of RVGE that exceeded estimates of the direct effects, consistent with observations from the United States and other countries. Some of the models predicted that the short-term indirect benefits may be offset by a partial shifting of the burden of RVGE to older unvaccinated individuals. Nonetheless, even when such a shift occurs, the overall reduction in severe RVGE is considerable. Discrepancies among model predictions reflect uncertainties about age variation in the risk and reporting of RVGE, and the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity, highlighting important questions for future research.     

The genesis and spread of reassortment human influenza A/H3N2 viruses conferring adamantane resistance

A dramatic rise in the frequency of resistance to adamantane drugs by influenza A (H3N2) viruses has occurred in recent years -- from approximately 2% to approximately 90% in multiple countries worldwide-and associated with a single S31N amino acid replacement in the viral matrix M2 protein. To explore the emergence and spread of these adamantane resistant viruses we performed a phylogenetic analysis of recently sampled complete A/H3N2 genome sequences. Strikingly, all adamantane resistant viruses belonged to a single lineage (the "N-lineage") characterized by 17 amino acid replacements across the viral genome. Further, our analysis revealed that the genesis of the N-lineage was due to a 4+4 segment reassortment event involving 2 distinct lineages of influenza A/H3N2 virus. A subsequent study of hemagglutinin HA1 sequences suggested that the N-lineage was circulating widely in Asia during 2005, and then dominated the Northern hemisphere 2005-2006 season in Japan and the USA. Given the infrequent use of adamantane drugs in many countries, as well as the decades of use in the US associated with little drug resistance, we propose that the globally increasing frequency of adamantane resistance is more likely attributable to its interaction with fitness-enhancing mutations at other genomic sites rather than to direct drug selection pressure. This implies that adamantanes may not be useful for treatment and prophylaxis against influenza viruses in the long term. More generally, these findings illustrate that drug selection pressure is not the sole factor determining the evolution and maintenance of drug resistance in human pathogens.     

The path of least resistance: aggressive or moderate treatment?

The evolution of resistance to antimicrobial chemotherapy is a major and growing cause of human mortality and morbidity. Comparatively little attention has been paid to how different patient treatment strategies shape the evolution of resistance. In particular, it is not clear whether treating individual patients aggressively with high drug dosages and long treatment durations, or moderately with low dosages and short durations can better prevent the evolution and spread of drug resistance. Here, we summarize the very limited available empirical evidence across different pathogens and provide a conceptual framework describing the information required to effectively manage drug pressure to minimize resistance evolution.     

Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid in South Asia: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Background

Modeling of the transmission dynamics of typhoid allows for an evaluation of the potential direct and indirect effects of vaccination; however, relevant typhoid models rooted in data have rarely been deployed.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a parsimonious age-structured model describing the natural history and immunity to typhoid infection. The model was fit to data on culture-confirmed cases of typhoid fever presenting to Christian Medical College hospital in Vellore, India from 2000–2012. The model was then used to evaluate the potential impact of school-based vaccination strategies using live oral, Vi-polysaccharide, and Vi-conjugate vaccines. The model was able to reproduce the incidence and age distribution of typhoid cases in Vellore. The basic reproductive number (R ₀) of typhoid was estimated to be 2.8 in this setting. Vaccination was predicted to confer substantial indirect protection leading to a decrease in the incidence of typhoid in the short term, but (intuitively) typhoid incidence was predicted to rebound 5–15 years following a one-time campaign.

Conclusions/Significance

We found that model predictions for the overall and indirect effects of vaccination depend strongly on the role of chronic carriers in transmission. Carrier transmissibility was tentatively estimated to be low, consistent with recent studies, but was identified as a pivotal area for future research. It is unlikely that typhoid can be eliminated from endemic settings through vaccination alone.     

Stochastic processes are key determinants of short-term evolution in influenza a virus

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus is central to its surveillance and control. While immune-driven antigenic drift is a key determinant of viral evolution across epidemic seasons, the evolutionary processes shaping influenza virus diversity within seasons are less clear. Here we show with a phylogenetic analysis of 413 complete genomes of human H3N2 influenza A viruses collected between 1997 and 2005 from New York State, United States, that genetic diversity is both abundant and largely generated through the seasonal importation of multiple divergent clades of the same subtype. These clades cocirculated within New York State, allowing frequent reassortment and generating genome-wide diversity. However, relatively low levels of positive selection and genetic diversity were observed at amino acid sites considered important in antigenic drift. These results indicate that adaptive evolution occurs only sporadically in influenza A virus; rather, the stochastic processes of viral migration and clade reassortment play a vital role in shaping short-term evolutionary dynamics. Thus, predicting future patterns of influenza virus evolution for vaccine strain selection is inherently complex and requires intensive surveillance, whole-genome sequencing, and phenotypic analysis.