Directly transmitted viral diseases: modeling the dynamics of transmission

A key hurdle in understanding the spread and control of infectious diseases is to capture appropriately the dynamics of pathogen transmission. As people and goods travel increasingly rapidly around the world, so do pathogens; we must be prepared to understand their spread, in terms of the contact network between hosts, viral life history and within-host dynamics. This will require collaborative work that takes into account viral life history, strategy and evolution, and host genetics, demographics and immunodynamics. Mathematical models are a useful tool for integrating the data and analyses from diverse fields that contribute to our understanding of viral transmission dynamics in heterogeneous host populations.     

Essential function of the polo box of Cdc5 in subcellular localization and induction of cytokinetic structures

Members of the polo subfamily of protein kinases play pivotal roles in cell proliferation. In addition to the kinase domain, polo kinases have a strikingly conserved sequence in the noncatalytic C-terminal domain, termed the polo box. Here we show that the budding-yeast polo kinase Cdc5, when fused to green fluorescent protein and expressed under its endogenous promoter, localizes at spindle poles and the mother bud neck. Overexpression of Cdc5 can induce a class of cells with abnormally elongated buds in a polo box- and kinase activity-dependent manner. In addition to localizing at the spindle poles and cytokinetic neck filaments, Cdc5 induces and localizes to additional septin ring structures within the elongated buds. Without impairing kinase activity, conservative mutations in the polo box abolish the ability of Cdc5 to functionally complement the defect associated with a cdc5-1 temperature-sensitive mutation, to localize to the spindle poles and cytokinetic neck filaments, and to induce elongated cells with ectopic septin ring structures. Consistent with the polo box-dependent subcellular localization, the C-terminal domain of Cdc5, but not its polo box mutant, is sufficient for subcellular localization, and its overexpression appears to inhibit cytokinesis. These data provide evidence that the polo box is required to direct Cdc5 to specific subcellular locations and induce or organize cytokinetic structures.     

Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for epidemiological coupling and dynamics

Infectious diseases provide a particularly clear illustration of the spatiotemporal underpinnings of consumer-resource dynamics. The paradigm is provided by extremely contagious, acute, immunizing childhood infections. Partially synchronized, unstable oscillations are punctuated by local extinctions. This, in turn, can result in spatial differentiation in the timing of epidemics and, depending on the nature of spatial contagion, may result in traveling waves. Measles epidemics are one of a few systems documented well enough to reveal all of these properties and how they are affected by spatiotemporal variations in population structure and demography. On the basis of a gravity coupling model and a time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) model for local dynamics, we propose a metapopulation model for regional measles dynamics. The model can capture all the major spatiotemporal properties in prevaccination epidemics of measles in England and Wales.     

Generation and iterative affinity maturation of antibodies in vitro using hypermutating B-cell lines

We show that iterative antigen-mediated selection of B-cell lines that constitutively hypermutate their immunoglobulin V genes during culture can be exploited to generate antibodies in vitro. From Ramos, a hypermutating human B-cell line expressing IgM of unknown specificity, we derived descendants that exhibit stepwise improved binding to streptavidin. Binding is initially conferred by mutations in complementarity-determining regions (CDRs), but maturation is due to strategic framework mutations. A more powerful system is provided by a hypermutating chicken B-lymphoma line, owing to its rapid proliferation, high rate of mutation accumulation, and genetic tractability. Starting from a single cell, we selected parallel lineages of derivatives, making mutated antibodies of increasing affinity to independent test antigens. Selection is initiated at an exceedingly low affinity threshold, but antibodies can be delivered with nanomolar affinities. The strategy could prove useful for in vitro generation of antigen-specific monoclonal antibodies and may be extendable to the maturation of other protein-ligand interactions.     

Anthelmintic resistance revisited: under-dosing, chemoprophylactic strategies, and mating probabilities

Deterministic and stochastic models are used to examine the evolution of anthelmintic resistance among trichostrongylid parasites of domestic ruminants. We find that the relative selection pressures exerted by chemoprophylactic (preventive) control strategies, chemotherapeutic (salvage) control strategies, and regimens involving "under-dosing" are critically dependent on a variety of host and parasite parameters (particularly host immunity and grazing behaviour, parasite fecundity, and the survival of the free-living stages on the pasture). Chemoprophylactic strategies are not necessarily more likely to exert a stronger selection pressure than chemotherapeutic strategies. Similarly, as one reduces dosage levels, there is a range of dose levels where under-dosing promotes resistance and a range of dose levels where under-dosing impedes resistance. The most dangerous dose is either that necessary to kill all the susceptible homozygotes, or that necessary to kill all the susceptible homozygotes and all the heterozygotes. Which one prevails depends upon model parameters. The stochastic formulation indicates that spatial heterogeneity in transmission may be a significant force in promoting the spread of resistant genotypes--at least when infection is at low levels.     

(Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases

The metapopulation concept provides a very powerful tool for analysing the persistence of spatially-disaggregated populations, in terms of a balance between local extinction and colonization. Exactly the same approach has been developed by epidemiologists, in order to understand patterns of diseases persistence. There is great scope for further cross-fertilization between areas. Recent work on the spatitemporal dynamics of measles illustrates that the large datasets and rich modelling literature on many infectious diseases offer great potential for developing and testing ideas about metapopulations.     

Patterns of density dependence in measles dynamics.

An important question in metapopulation dynamics is the influence of external perturbations on the population''s long-term dynamic behaviour. In this paper we address the question of how spatiotemporal variations in demographic parameters affect the dynamics of measles populations in England and Wales. Specifically, we use nonparametric statistical methods to analyse how birth rate and population size modulate the negative density dependence between successive epidemics as well as their periodicity. For the observed spatiotemporal data from 60 cities, and for simulated model data, the demographic variables act as bifurcation parameters on the joint density of the trade-off between successive epidemics. For increasing population size, a transition occurs from an irregular unpredictable pattern in small communities towards a regular, predictable endemic pattern in large places. Variations in the birth rate parameter lead to a bifurcation from annual towards biennial cyclicity in both observed data and model data.     

A model for the dynamics of human lymphatic filariasis

In this paper, Bryan Gren fell, Edwin Michael and David Denham review the appropriateness of feline filariasis as a model of the population dynamics of human lymphatic filarial infection and disease. Because of the longevity of infection and our inability to measure the adult parasite population in humans, research in filariasis is particularly dependent on the use of laboratory animal models. We demonstrate that Brugia pahangi infection patterns in the cat closely parallel those of Brugia and Wuchereria in humans. Although primary infections in 'susceptible' cats are long-lived, repeatedly infected animals show evidence of concomitant immunity which prevents the establishment of later cohorts of infective larvae. Furthermore, there is some evidence from macro filarial length distributions of 'stunting' of adult worms during long-term repeat infections. Cats can also show an 'acute' response that spontaneously eliminates infections, and this appears to be due to a combination of intrinsic and dynamic mechanisms. As in humans, pathology in cat filariasis develops as a sequel to the asymptomatic microfilaremic state, largely as a result of re-expression of immunity. The relationship between macro filarial burdens and microfilariae in blood is positive but portrays a high degree of variability. The cat model provides an important tool for elucidating the relationships between infection, immunity and disease dynamics in lymphatic filariasis, and we conclude by suggesting directions for further work in this area.