A mechanistic spatio-temporal modeling of COVID-19 data

Understanding the evolution of an epidemic is essential to implement timely and efficient preventive measures. The availability of epidemiological data at a fine spatio-temporal scale is both novel and highly useful in this regard. Indeed, having geocoded data at the case level opens the door to analyze the spread of the disease on an individual basis, allowing the detection of specific outbreaks or, in general, of some interactions between cases that are not observable if aggregated data are used. Point processes are the natural tool to perform such analyses. We analyze a spatio-temporal point pattern of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases detected in Valencia (Spain) during the first 11 months (February 2020 to January 2021) of the pandemic. In particular, we propose a mechanistic spatio-temporal model for the first-order intensity function of the point process. This model includes separate estimates of the overall temporal and spatial intensities of the model and a spatio-temporal interaction term. For the latter, while similar studies have considered different forms of this term solely based on the physical distances between the events, we have also incorporated mobility data to better capture the characteristics of human populations. The results suggest that there has only been a mild level of spatio-temporal interaction between cases in the study area, which to a large extent corresponds to people living in the same residential location. Extending our proposed model to larger areas could help us gain knowledge on the propagation of COVID-19 across cities with high mobility levels.     

Corticotroph,somatotroph and mammotroph cell kinetics in the postnatal infant female rat

The aim of this work was to detect if hypothalamic-pituitary maturation was accompanied by significant proliferation changes in differentiated pituitary cell pools. For this purpose, pituitary corticotroph (Ct), mammotroph (Mt) and somatotroph (St) proliferation activities were scanned in intact female rats during the postnatal (P) period (1–35 postnatal days). The techniques of tritiated thymidine labelling, immunostaining and autoradiography were combined to visualize DNA synthesis of hormone containing cells. Immunoreactive cell densities were measured using image analysis, and double labelled cells were counted. Corticotroph proliferation activity increased significantly on day P12, followed by an increase in the Ct proportion on days P13–14. This is the first observation of a spontaneous change of corticotroph proliferation at the end of the stress nonresponsive period. The mammotroph density and proliferation rate increased gradually during postnatal maturation, until the Mt pool overran other cell types of the female hypophysis on day 35. The somatotroph pool was the most numerous until day P20; the proliferation rate remained constant while St proportions increased reaching a plateau between days P13 and 20, then decreased to the adult level. Each cell type examined showed a characteristic, individual density and proliferation pattern.