Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing biases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree-ring width chronologies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the distribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four numerical models (linear vs. non-linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate–growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The degree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry species distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly-resolved non-linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate–growth responses is a multifactorial phenomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and methodological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non-stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate–growth response for temperate forests.     

Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming

Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.     

Large old trees increase growth under shifting climatic constraints: Aligning tree longevity and individual growth dynamics in primary mountain spruce forests

In a world of accelerating changes in environmental conditions driving tree growth, tradeoffs between tree growth rate and longevity could curtail the abundance of large old trees (LOTs), with potentially dire consequences for biodiversity and carbon storage. However, the influence of tree-level tradeoffs on forest structure at landscape scales will also depend on disturbances, which shape tree size and age distribution, and on whether LOTs can benefit from improved growing conditions due to climate warming. We analyzed temporal and spatial variation in radial growth patterns from ~5000 Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] H. Karst) live and dead trees from the Western Carpathian primary spruce forest stands. We applied mixed-linear modeling to quantify the importance of LOT growth histories and stand dynamics (i.e., competition and disturbance factors) on lifespan. Finally, we assessed regional synchronization in radial growth variability over the 20th century, and modeled the effects of stand dynamics and climate on LOTs recent growth trends. Tree age varied considerably among forest stands, implying an important role of disturbance as an age constraint. Slow juvenile growth and longer period of suppressed growth prolonged tree lifespan, while increasing disturbance severity and shorter time since last disturbance decreased it. The highest age was not achieved only by trees with continuous slow growth, but those with slow juvenile growth followed by subsequent growth releases. Growth trend analysis demonstrated an increase in absolute growth rates in response to climate warming, with late summer temperatures driving the recent growth trend. Contrary to our expectation that LOTs would eventually exhibit declining growth rates, the oldest LOTs (>400 years) continuously increase growth throughout their lives, indicating a high phenotypic plasticity of LOTs for increasing biomass, and a strong carbon sink role of primary spruce forests under rising temperatures, intensifying droughts, and increasing bark beetle outbreaks.     

Ecosystem-level effects of re-oligotrophication and N:P imbalances in rivers and estuaries on a global scale

Trends and ecological consequences of phosphorus (P) decline and increasing nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (N:P) ratios in rivers and estuaries are reviewed and discussed. Results suggest that re-oligotrophication is a dominant trend in rivers and estuaries of high-income countries in the last two–three decades, while in low-income countries widespread eutrophication occurs. The decline in P is well documented in hundreds of rivers of United States and the European Union, but the biotic response of rivers and estuaries besides phytoplankton decline such as trends in phytoplankton composition, changes in primary production, ecosystem shifts, cascading effects, changes in ecosystem metabolism, etc., have not been sufficiently monitored and investigated, neither the effects of N:P imbalance. N:P imbalance has significant ecological effects that need to be further investigated. There is a growing number of cases in which phytoplankton biomass have been shown to decrease due to re-oligotrophication, but the potential regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance described in shallow lakes has been documented only in a few rivers and estuaries yet. The main reasons why regime shifts are rarely described in rivers and estuaries are, from one hand the scarcity of data on macrophyte cover trends, and from the other hand physical factors such as peak flows or high turbidity that could prevent a general spread of submerged macrophytes as observed in shallow lakes. Moreover, re-oligotrophication effects on rivers may be different compared to lakes (e.g., lower dominance of macrophytes) or estuaries (e.g., limitation of primary production by N instead of P) or may be dependent on river/estuary type. We conclude that river and estuary re-oligotrophication effects are complex, diverse and still little known, and in some cases are equivalent to those described in shallow lakes, but the regime shift is more likely to occur in mid to high-order rivers and shallow estuaries.     

Damage to living trees contributes to almost half of the biomass losses in tropical forests

Accurate estimates of forest biomass stocks and fluxes are needed to quantify global carbon budgets and assess the response of forests to climate change. However, most forest inventories consider tree mortality as the only aboveground biomass (AGB) loss without accounting for losses via damage to living trees: branchfall, trunk breakage, and wood decay. Here, we use ~151,000 annual records of tree survival and structural completeness to compare AGB loss via damage to living trees to total AGB loss (mortality + damage) in seven tropical forests widely distributed across environmental conditions. We find that 42% (3.62 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36–5.25) of total AGB loss (8.72 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹; CI 5.57–12.86) is due to damage to living trees. Total AGB loss was highly variable among forests, but these differences were mainly caused by site variability in damage-related AGB losses rather than by mortality-related AGB losses. We show that conventional forest inventories overestimate stand-level AGB stocks by 4% (1%–17% range across forests) because assume structurally complete trees, underestimate total AGB loss by 29% (6%–57% range across forests) due to overlooked damage-related AGB losses, and overestimate AGB loss via mortality by 22% (7%–80% range across forests) because of the assumption that trees are undamaged before dying. Our results indicate that forest carbon fluxes are higher than previously thought. Damage on living trees is an underappreciated component of the forest carbon cycle that is likely to become even more important as the frequency and severity of forest disturbances increase.     

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite-derived vegetation index data and supporting tree-ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi-arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region- and biome-dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non-dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate-specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.     

Litter and soil biodiversity jointly drive ecosystem functions

The decomposition of litter and the supply of nutrients into and from the soil are two fundamental processes through which the above- and belowground world interact. Microbial biodiversity, and especially that of decomposers, plays a key role in these processes by helping litter decomposition. Yet the relative contribution of litter diversity and soil biodiversity in supporting multiple ecosystem services remains virtually unknown. Here we conducted a mesocosm experiment where leaf litter and soil biodiversity were manipulated to investigate their influence on plant productivity, litter decomposition, soil respiration, and enzymatic activity in the littersphere. We showed that both leaf litter diversity and soil microbial diversity (richness and community composition) independently contributed to explain multiple ecosystem functions. Fungal saprobes community composition was especially important for supporting ecosystem multifunctionality (EMF), plant production, litter decomposition, and activity of soil phosphatase when compared with bacteria or other fungal functional groups and litter species richness. Moreover, leaf litter diversity and soil microbial diversity exerted previously undescribed and significantly interactive effects on EMF and multiple individual ecosystem functions, such as litter decomposition and plant production. Together, our work provides experimental evidence supporting the independent and interactive roles of litter and belowground soil biodiversity to maintain ecosystem functions and multiple services.     

Microbial nitrogen and phosphorus co-limitation across permafrost region

The status of plant and microbial nutrient limitation have profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycle in permafrost areas, which store large amounts of carbon and experience pronounced climatic warming. Despite the long-term standing paradigm assumes that cold ecosystems primarily have nitrogen deficiency, large-scale empirical tests of microbial nutrient limitation are lacking. Here we assessed the potential microbial nutrient limitation across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region, using the combination of enzymatic and elemental stoichiometry, genes abundance and fertilization method. In contrast with the traditional view, the four independent approaches congruently detected widespread microbial nitrogen and phosphorus co-limitation in both the surface soil and deep permafrost deposits, with stronger limitation in the topsoil. Further analysis revealed that soil resources stoichiometry and microbial community composition were the two best predictors of the magnitude of microbial nutrient limitation. High ratio of available soil carbon to nutrient and low fungal/bacterial ratio corresponded to strong microbial nutrient limitation. These findings suggest that warming-induced enhancement in soil nutrient availability could stimulate microbial activity, and probably amplify soil carbon losses from permafrost areas.     

Short-term effects of a large dam decommissioning on biofilm structure and functioning

Aging dams and the rising efforts to restore stream ecosystems are increasing the number of dam decommissioning programs. Although dam decommissioning aims at improving in-stream habitat, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning in the long term, it might also cause ecological impacts in the short term due to the mobilization of the sediment accumulated in the reservoir. Benthic biofilm in particular can be impaired by episodes of high turbidity and scouring. We conducted a multiple before-after/control-impact experiment to assess the effects of the drawdown of a large dam (42 m tall), a first step to its decommissioning, on biofilm structure (biomass and chlorophyll-a) and functioning (metabolism, nutrient uptake, and organic matter breakdown). Our results show that the reservoir drawdown reduced the autotrophic biofilm biomass (chlorophyll-a) downstream from the dam, which in turn lowered metabolism. However, nitrogen and phosphorus uptake by the biofilm was not affected. Organic matter breakdown was slower below the dam than in nearby undammed reaches before and during drawdown. All drawdown effects quickly disappeared and reaches downstream from the dam approached values found in nearby undammed reaches. Thus, our results indicate that the effects of reservoir drawdown on stream biofilms exist but may be small and disappear rapidly.     

Biological traits and living conditions of Maya Indian and non Maya girls from Merida,Mexico

A total of 522 girls and their families from low and middle social strate were examined in the northern part of Merida (Yucatan) during 1988 and 1989. Marital radius in the parental generation was relatively long (146 km), and it was six times longer for non-Maya and mixed couples than Maya. Living and housing conditions were similar for both Maya and non-Maya (mixed couples typically had an intermediate condition), except for sewage system (sanitation). The Maya income was 64% lower. Maya men and women were short. The girls from Merida were short, hyper-brachycephalic (short headed), and europrosopic (broad face). Among them, Maya girls were even shorter, more round-headed, and more broad-faced than non-Maya girls. Menarche occurred on the average at an age of 12.6 years in mothers and 12.1 years in daughters. As the generation time was about 25 years, there was a slow acceleration of maturation (0.2 years per decade). Presumably, also stature has increased in recent years.