An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number

Background

Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth.

Methodology

The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R₀, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts).

Principal Findings

Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R₀ is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1^th serial interval using data from the i^th serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence.

Conclusions and Significance

This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists.     

Angiogenic Properties of Human Dental Pulp Stem Cells

Angiogenesis, the formation of capillaries from pre-existing blood vessels, is a key process in tissue engineering. If blood supply cannot be established rapidly, there is insufficient oxygen and nutrient transport and necrosis of the implanted tissue will occur. Recent studies indicate that the human dental pulp contains precursor cells, named dental pulp stem cells (hDPSC) that show self-renewal and multilineage differentiation capacity. Since these cells can be easily isolated, cultured and cryopreserved, they represent an attractive stem cell source for tissue engineering. Until now, only little is known about the angiogenic abilities and mechanisms of the hDPSC. In this study, the angiogenic profile of both cell lysates and conditioned medium of hDPSC was determined by means of an antibody array. Numerous pro-and anti-angiogenic factors such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) and endostatin were found both at the mRNA and protein level. hDPSC had no influence on the proliferation of the human microvascular endothelial cells (HMEC-1), but were able to significantly induce HMEC-1 migration in vitro. Addition of the PI3K-inhibitor {"type":"entrez-nucleotide","attrs":{"text":"LY294002","term_id":"1257998346","term_text":"LY294002"}}LY294002 and the MEK-inhibitor U0126 to the HMEC-1 inhibited this effect, suggesting that both Akt and ERK pathways are involved in hDPSC-mediated HMEC-1 migration. Antibodies against VEGF also abolished the chemotactic actions of hDPSC. Furthermore, in the chicken chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) assay, hDPSC were able to significantly induce blood vessel formation. In conclusion, hDPSC have the ability to induce angiogenesis, meaning that this stem cell population has a great clinical potential, not only for tissue engineering but also for the treatment of chronic wounds, stroke and myocardial infarctions.     

Maternal inheritance of mitochondrial DNA

Maternal inheritance of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is generally observed in many eukaryotes. Sperm-derived paternal mitochondria and their mtDNA enter the oocyte cytoplasm upon fertilization and then normally disappear during early embryogenesis. However, the mechanism underlying this clearance of paternal mitochondria has remained largely unknown. Recently, we showed that autophagy is required for the elimination of paternal mitochondria in Caenorhabditis elegans embryos. Shortly after fertilization, autophagosomes are induced locally around the penetrated sperm components. These autophagosomes engulf paternal mitochondria, resulting in their lysosomal degradation during early embryogenesis. In autophagy-defective zygotes, paternal mitochondria and their genomes remain even in the larval stage. Therefore, maternal inheritance of mtDNA is accomplished by autophagic degradation of paternal mitochondria. We also found that another kind of sperm-derived structure, called the membranous organelle, is degraded by zygotic autophagy as well. We thus propose to term this allogeneic (nonself) organelle autophagy as allophagy.     

Effects of dietary fibre and protein on urea transport across the cecal mucosa of piglets

In ruminants, gastrointestinal recycling of urea is acutely enhanced by fibre-rich diets that lead to high ruminal concentration of short chain fatty acids (SCFA), while high ammonia has inhibitory effects. This study attempted to clarify if urea flux to the porcine cecum is similarly regulated. Thirty-two weaned piglets were fed diets containing protein (P) of poor prececal digestibility and fibre (F) at high (H) or low levels (L) in a 2 × 2 factorial design. After slaughter, cecal content was analyzed and the cecal mucosa incubated in Ussing chambers to measure the effect of pH, SCFA and NH₄ ⁺ on the flux rates of urea, short-circuit current (I _sc) and tissue conductance (G _t). NH₄ ⁺ significantly enhanced I _sc (from 0.5 ± 0.2 to 1.2 ± 0.1 μEq cm^?2 h^?1). No acute effects of SCFA or ammonia on urea flux were observed. Tissue conductance was significantly lower in the high dietary fibre groups irrespective of the protein content. Only the HP-LF group emerged as different from all others in terms of urea flux (74 ± 6 versus 53 ± 3 nmol cm^?2 h^?1), associated with higher cecal ammonia concentration and reduced fecal consistency. The data suggest that as in the rumen, uptake of ammonia by the cecum may involve electrogenic transport of the ionic form (NH₄ ⁺). In contrast to findings in the rumen, neither a high fibre diet nor acute addition of SCFA enhanced urea transport across the pig cecum. Instead, a HP-LF diet had stimulatory effects. A potential role for urea recycling in stabilizing luminal pH is discussed.     

Growth and pigment accumulation in nutrient-depleted Isochrysis aff. galbana T-ISO

The effect of three different nutrient depletions (nitrogen, sulphur and magnesium) on the growth and pigment accumulation of the haptophyte Isochrysis aff. galbana (clone T-ISO) has been studied. Pigments were quantified based on RP-UHPLC-PDA-MSⁿ analysis. All nutrient depletions led to reduced maximal biomass concentrations. Besides, all nutrient-depleted cultures accumulated 3-hydroxyechinenone. To our knowledge, this is the first time that 3-hydroxyechinenone has been found in I. aff. galbana T-ISO. Most 3-hydroxyechinenone, as well as the most echinenone and diatoxanthin, were found in the nitrogen-limited culture in which a more severe limitation resulted in higher cellular contents. Similar to accumulation of diatoxanthin, accumulation of 3-hydroxyechinenone and echinenone may be part of a global (stress) response mechanism to oversaturating light conditions.     

Individual Differences in the Attentional Blink: The Temporal Profile of Blinkers and Non-Blinkers

Background

When two targets are presented in close temporal succession, the majority of people frequently fail to report the second target. This phenomenon, known as the ‘attentional blink’ (AB), has been a major topic in attention research for the past twenty years because it is informative about the rate at which stimuli can be encoded into consciously accessible representations. An aspect of the AB that has long been ignored, however, is individual differences.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we compare a group of blinkers (who show an AB) and non-blinkers (who show little or no AB), and investigate the boundary conditions of the non-blinkers'' remarkable ability. Second, we directly test the properties of temporal selection by analysing response errors, allowing us to uncover individual differences in suppression, delay, and diffusion of selective attention across time. Thirdly, we test the hypothesis that information concerning temporal order is compromised when an AB is somehow avoided. Surprisingly, compared to earlier studies, only a modest amount of suppression was found for blinkers. Non-blinkers showed no suppression, were more precise in selecting the second target, and made less order reversals than blinkers did. In contrast, non-blinkers made relatively more intrusions and showed a selection delay when the second target immediately followed the first target (at lag 1).

Conclusion/Significance

The findings shed new light on the mechanisms that may underlie individual differences in selective attention. The notable ability of non-blinkers to accurately perceive targets presented in close temporal succession might be due to a relatively faster and more precise target selection process compared to large blinkers.     

Activating and Relaxing Music Entrains the Speed of Beat Synchronized Walking

Inspired by a theory of embodied music cognition, we investigate whether music can entrain the speed of beat synchronized walking. If human walking is in synchrony with the beat and all musical stimuli have the same duration and the same tempo, then differences in walking speed can only be the result of music-induced differences in stride length, thus reflecting the vigor or physical strength of the movement. Participants walked in an open field in synchrony with the beat of 52 different musical stimuli all having a tempo of 130 beats per minute and a meter of 4 beats. The walking speed was measured as the walked distance during a time interval of 30 seconds. The results reveal that some music is ‘activating’ in the sense that it increases the speed, and some music is ‘relaxing’ in the sense that it decreases the speed, compared to the spontaneous walked speed in response to metronome stimuli. Participants are consistent in their observation of qualitative differences between the relaxing and activating musical stimuli. Using regression analysis, it was possible to set up a predictive model using only four sonic features that explain 60% of the variance. The sonic features capture variation in loudness and pitch patterns at periods of three, four and six beats, suggesting that expressive patterns in music are responsible for the effect. The mechanism may be attributed to an attentional shift, a subliminal audio-motor entrainment mechanism, or an arousal effect, but further study is needed to figure this out. Overall, the study supports the hypothesis that recurrent patterns of fluctuation affecting the binary meter strength of the music may entrain the vigor of the movement. The study opens up new perspectives for understanding the relationship between entrainment and expressiveness, with the possibility to develop applications that can be used in domains such as sports and physical rehabilitation.     

Fragmented Perception: Slower Space-Based but Faster Object-Based Attention in Recent-Onset Psychosis with and without Schizophrenia

Background

Schizophrenia is associated with impairments of the perception of objects, but how this affects higher cognitive functions, whether this impairment is already present after recent onset of psychosis, and whether it is specific for schizophrenia related psychosis, is not clear. We therefore tested the hypothesis that because schizophrenia is associated with impaired object perception, schizophrenia patients should differ in shifting attention between objects compared to healthy controls. To test this hypothesis, a task was used that allowed us to separately observe space-based and object-based covert orienting of attention. To examine whether impairment of object-based visual attention is related to higher order cognitive functions, standard neuropsychological tests were also administered.

Method

Patients with recent onset psychosis and normal controls performed the attention task, in which space- and object-based attention shifts were induced by cue-target sequences that required reorienting of attention within an object, or reorienting attention between objects.

Results

Patients with and without schizophrenia showed slower than normal spatial attention shifts, but the object-based component of attention shifts in patients was smaller than normal. Schizophrenia was specifically associated with slowed right-to-left attention shifts. Reorienting speed was significantly correlated with verbal memory scores in controls, and with visual attention scores in patients, but not with speed-of-processing scores in either group.

Conclusions

deficits of object-perception and spatial attention shifting are not only associated with schizophrenia, but are common to all psychosis patients. Schizophrenia patients only differed by having abnormally slow right-to-left visual field reorienting. Deficits of object-perception and spatial attention shifting are already present after recent onset of psychosis. Studies investigating visual spatial attention should take into account the separable effects of space-based and object-based shifting of attention. Impaired reorienting in patients was related to impaired visual attention, but not to deficits of processing speed and verbal memory.     

Acute Effects of Capsaicin on Energy Expenditure and Fat Oxidation in Negative Energy Balance

Background

Addition of capsaicin (CAPS) to the diet has been shown to increase energy expenditure; therefore capsaicin is an interesting target for anti-obesity therapy.

Aim

We investigated the 24 h effects of CAPS on energy expenditure, substrate oxidation and blood pressure during 25% negative energy balance.

Methods

Subjects underwent four 36 h sessions in a respiration chamber for measurements of energy expenditure, substrate oxidation and blood pressure. They received 100% or 75% of their daily energy requirements in the conditions ‘100%CAPS’, ‘100%Control’, ‘75%CAPS’ and ‘75%Control’. CAPS was given at a dose of 2.56 mg (1.03 g of red chili pepper, 39,050 Scoville heat units (SHU)) with every meal.

Results

An induced negative energy balance of 25% was effectively a 20.5% negative energy balance due to adapting mechanisms. Diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT) and resting energy expenditure (REE) at 75%CAPS did not differ from DIT and REE at 100%Control, while at 75%Control these tended to be or were lower than at 100%Control (p = 0.05 and p = 0.02 respectively). Sleeping metabolic rate (SMR) at 75%CAPS did not differ from SMR at 100%CAPS, while SMR at 75%Control was lower than at 100%CAPS (p = 0.04). Fat oxidation at 75%CAPS was higher than at 100%Control (p = 0.03), while with 75%Control it did not differ from 100%Control. Respiratory quotient (RQ) was more decreased at 75%CAPS (p = 0.04) than at 75%Control (p = 0.05) when compared with 100%Control. Blood pressure did not differ between the four conditions.

Conclusion

In an effectively 20.5% negative energy balance, consumption of 2.56 mg capsaicin per meal supports negative energy balance by counteracting the unfavorable negative energy balance effect of decrease in components of energy expenditure. Moreover, consumption of 2.56 mg capsaicin per meal promotes fat oxidation in negative energy balance and does not increase blood pressure significantly.

Trial Registration

Nederlands Trial Register; registration number NTR2944     

Distribution and community structure of Ostracoda (Crustacea) in shallow waterbodies of southern Kenya

The current study presents the ostracod communities recovered from 26 shallow waterbodies in southern Kenya, combined with an ecological assessment of habitat characteristics. A total of 37 waterbodies were sampled in 2001 and 2003, ranging from small ephemeral pools to large permanent lakes along broad gradients in altitude (700–2 800 m) and salinity (37–67 200 µS cm^?1). Between 0 and 12 species were recorded per site. Lack of ostracods was associated with either hypersaline waters, or the presence of fish in fresh waters. Three of the 32 recovered ostracod taxa, Physocypria sp., Sarscypridopsis cf. elizabethae and Oncocypris mulleri, combined a wide distribution with frequent local dominance. Canonical correspondence analysis on species–environment relationships indicated that littoral vegetation, altitude, surface water temperature and pH best explain the variation in ostracod communities. Presence of fish and water depth also influence species occurrence, with the larger species being more common in shallow waterbodies lacking fish. Based on Chao’s estimator of total regional species richness, this survey recovered about two-thirds (60–68%) of the regional ostracod species pool. Scanning electron micrographs (SEM) of the valve morphology of 14 ostracod taxa are provided, in order to facilitate their application in biodiversity and water-quality assessments and in palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.