Elicitation of Expert Prior Opinion: Application to the MYPAN Trial in Childhood Polyarteritis Nodosa

Objectives

Definitive sample sizes for clinical trials in rare diseases are usually infeasible. Bayesian methodology can be used to maximise what is learnt from clinical trials in these circumstances. We elicited expert prior opinion for a future Bayesian randomised controlled trial for a rare inflammatory paediatric disease, polyarteritis nodosa (MYPAN, Mycophenolate mofetil for polyarteritis nodosa).

Methods

A Bayesian prior elicitation meeting was convened. Opinion was sought on the probability that a patient in the MYPAN trial treated with cyclophosphamide would achieve disease remission within 6-months, and on the relative efficacies of mycophenolate mofetil and cyclophosphamide. Expert opinion was combined with previously unseen data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial in ANCA associated vasculitis.

Results

A pan-European group of fifteen experts participated in the elicitation meeting. Consensus expert prior opinion was that the most likely rates of disease remission within 6 months on cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil were 74% and 71%, respectively. This prior opinion will now be taken forward and will be modified to formulate a Bayesian posterior opinion once the MYPAN trial data from 40 patients randomised 1:1 to either CYC or MMF become available.

Conclusions

We suggest that the methodological template we propose could be applied to trial design for other rare diseases.     

Identification of novel genetic markers associated with clinical phenotypes of systemic sclerosis through a genome-wide association strategy

The aim of this study was to determine, through a genome-wide association study (GWAS), the genetic components contributing to different clinical sub-phenotypes of systemic sclerosis (SSc). We considered limited (lcSSc) and diffuse (dcSSc) cutaneous involvement, and the relationships with presence of the SSc-specific auto-antibodies, anti-centromere (ACA), and anti-topoisomerase I (ATA). Four GWAS cohorts, comprising 2,296 SSc patients and 5,171 healthy controls, were meta-analyzed looking for associations in the selected subgroups. Eighteen polymorphisms were further tested in nine independent cohorts comprising an additional 3,175 SSc patients and 4,971 controls. Conditional analysis for associated SNPs in the HLA region was performed to explore their independent association in antibody subgroups. Overall analysis showed that non-HLA polymorphism rs11642873 in IRF8 gene to be associated at GWAS level with lcSSc (P = 2.32×10⁻¹², OR = 0.75). Also, rs12540874 in GRB10 gene (P = 1.27 × 10⁻⁶, OR = 1.15) and rs11047102 in SOX5 gene (P = 1.39×10⁻⁷, OR = 1.36) showed a suggestive association with lcSSc and ACA subgroups respectively. In the HLA region, we observed highly associated allelic combinations in the HLA-DQB1 locus with ACA (P = 1.79×10⁻⁶¹, OR = 2.48), in the HLA-DPA1/B1 loci with ATA (P = 4.57×10⁻⁷⁶, OR = 8.84), and in NOTCH4 with ACA P = 8.84×10⁻²¹, OR = 0.55) and ATA (P = 1.14×10⁻⁸, OR = 0.54). We have identified three new non-HLA genes (IRF8, GRB10, and SOX5) associated with SSc clinical and auto-antibody subgroups. Within the HLA region, HLA-DQB1, HLA-DPA1/B1, and NOTCH4 associations with SSc are likely confined to specific auto-antibodies. These data emphasize the differential genetic components of subphenotypes of SSc.     

Automated detection of external ventricular and lumbar drain-related meningitis using laboratory and microbiology results and medication data

Objective

Monitoring of healthcare-associated infection rates is important for infection control and hospital benchmarking. However, manual surveillance is time-consuming and susceptible to error. The aim was, therefore, to develop a prediction model to retrospectively detect drain-related meningitis (DRM), a frequently occurring nosocomial infection, using routinely collected data from a clinical data warehouse.

Methods

As part of the hospital infection control program, all patients receiving an external ventricular (EVD) or lumbar drain (ELD) (2004 to 2009; n = 742) had been evaluated for the development of DRM through chart review and standardized diagnostic criteria by infection control staff; this was the reference standard. Children, patients dying <24 hours after drain insertion or with <1 day follow-up and patients with infection at the time of insertion or multiple simultaneous drains were excluded. Logistic regression was used to develop a model predicting the occurrence of DRM. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Bootstrapping was applied to increase generalizability.

Results

537 patients remained after application of exclusion criteria, of which 82 developed DRM (13.5/1000 days at risk). The automated model to detect DRM included the number of drains placed, drain type, blood leukocyte count, C-reactive protein, cerebrospinal fluid leukocyte count and culture result, number of antibiotics started during admission, and empiric antibiotic therapy. Discriminatory power of this model was excellent (area under the ROC curve 0.97). The model achieved 98.8% sensitivity (95% CI 88.0% to 99.9%) and specificity of 87.9% (84.6% to 90.8%). Positive and negative predictive values were 56.9% (50.8% to 67.9%) and 99.9% (98.6% to 99.9%), respectively. Predicted yearly infection rates concurred with observed infection rates.

Conclusion

A prediction model based on multi-source data stored in a clinical data warehouse could accurately quantify rates of DRM. Automated detection using this statistical approach is feasible and could be applied to other nosocomial infections.     

Financial evaluation of different vaccination strategies for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in The Netherlands in 2008

Background

Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008.

Methodology/Principal Findings

An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in the Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of the Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs.

Conclusions/Significance

This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficiency.     

Famine in the Young and Risk of Later Hospitalization for COPD and Asthma

Background

Undernutrition during critical periods of growth and development may permanently affect lung physiology and function.

Objectives

To investigate whether acute undernutrition in childhood or young adulthood increases the risk of later hospitalization for obstructive airways disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or asthma.

Methods

We studied 7,841 women from Prospect-EPIC who experienced the 1944–45 Dutch famine between ages 0 and 21. Pulmonary outcomes were measured by registered hospital admissions and exposure-blinded computed tomography (CT) in a subgroup of 295 women. With Cox proportional hazard regression we explored effects of famine exposure on risk of hospitalization for obstructive airways disease, COPD, and asthma. With logistic regression we explored effects of famine on risk of CT evidence of pulmonary disease.

Results

Risks of hospitalization for obstructive airways disease, COPD, and asthma were increased after moderate famine exposure, and significantly increased after severe famine exposure: hazard ratios for obstructive airways disease were 1.31 (95% CI: 0.97 to 1.77) and 1.57 (95% CI: 1.10 to 2.23) respectively. Associations between famine exposure and hospitalization for COPD were stronger in ever-smokers than in never-smokers.

Conclusions

Acute undernutrition in childhood or young adulthood is associated with an increased risk of later COPD and asthma hospitalization, possibly through increased sensitivity for tobacco smoke.     

Disinhibition in Risky Sexual Behavior in Men,but Not Women,during Four Years of Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural,Southwestern Uganda

Background

In resource-rich areas, risky sexual behavior (RSB) largely diminishes after initiation of anti-retroviral therapy, with notable exceptions among some populations who perceive a protected benefit from anti-retroviral therapy (ART). Yet, there is limited data about long-term trends in risky sexual behavior among HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa after initiation of anti-retroviral therapy.

Methods

We administered questionnaires every three months to collect sexual behavior data among patients taking ART in southwestern Uganda over four years of follow-up time. We defined RSB as having unprotected sex with an HIV-negative or unknown status partner, or unprotected sex with a casual partner. We fit logistic regression models to estimate changes in RSB by time on ART, with and without adjustment for calendar year and CD4 count.

Results

506 participants were enrolled between 2005 and 2011 and contributed a median of 13 visits and 3.5 years of observation time. The majority were female (70%) and median age was 34 years (interquartile range 29–39). There was a decrease in the proportion of men reporting RSB from the pre-ART visit to the first post-ART visit (16.2 to 4.3%, p<0.01) but not women (14.1 to 13.3%, p = 0.80). With each year of ART, women reported decreasing RSB (OR 0.85 per year, 95%CI 0.74–0.98, p = 0.03). In contrast, men had increasing odds of reporting RSB with each year of ART to near pre-treatment rates (OR 1.41, 95%CI 1.14–1.74, p = 0.001), which was partially confounded by changes in calendar time and CD4 count (AOR = 1.24, 95%CI 0.92–1.67, p = 0.16).

Conclusions

Men in southwestern Uganda reported increasing RSB over four years on ART, to levels approaching pre-treatment rates. Strategies to promote long-term safe sex practices targeted to HIV-infected men on ART might have a significant impact on preventing HIV transmission in this setting.     

Costs of Rabies Control: An Economic Calculation Method Applied to Flores Island

Background

Rabies is a zoonotic disease that, in most human cases, is fatal once clinical signs appear. The disease transmits to humans through an animal bite. Dogs are the main vector of rabies in humans on Flores Island, Indonesia, resulting in about 19 human deaths each year. Currently, rabies control measures on Flores Island include mass vaccination and culling of dogs, laboratory diagnostics of suspected rabid dogs, putting imported dogs in quarantine, and pre- and post-exposure treatment (PET) of humans. The objective of this study was to estimate the costs of the applied rabies control measures on Flores Island.

Methodology/principal findings

A deterministic economic model was developed to calculate the costs of the rabies control measures and their individual cost components from 2000 to 2011. The inputs for the economic model were obtained from (i) relevant literature, (ii) available data on Flores Island, and (iii) experts such as responsible policy makers and veterinarians involved in rabies control measures in the past. As a result, the total costs of rabies control measures were estimated to be US$1.12 million (range: US$0.60–1.47 million) per year. The costs of culling roaming dogs were the highest portion, about 39 percent of the total costs, followed by PET (35 percent), mass vaccination (24 percent), pre-exposure treatment (1.4 percent), and others (1.3 percent) (dog-bite investigation, diagnostic of suspected rabid dogs, trace-back investigation of human contact with rabid dogs, and quarantine of imported dogs).

Conclusions/significance

This study demonstrates that rabies has a large economic impact on the government and dog owners. Control of rabies by culling dogs is relatively costly for the dog owners in comparison with other measures. Providing PET for humans is an effective way to prevent rabies, but is costly for government and does not provide a permanent solution to rabies in the future.     

Site-Specific Chemoenzymatic Labeling of Aerolysin Enables the Identification of New Aerolysin Receptors

Aerolysin is a secreted bacterial toxin that perforates the plasma membrane of a target cell with lethal consequences. Previously explored native and epitope-tagged forms of the toxin do not allow site-specific modification of the mature toxin with a probe of choice. We explore sortase-mediated transpeptidation reactions (sortagging) to install fluorophores and biotin at three distinct sites in aerolysin, without impairing binding of the toxin to the cell membrane and with minimal impact on toxicity. Using a version of aerolysin labeled with different fluorophores at two distinct sites we followed the fate of the C-terminal peptide independently from the N-terminal part of the toxin, and show its loss in the course of intoxication. Making use of the biotinylated version of aerolysin, we identify mesothelin, urokinase plasminogen activator surface receptor (uPAR, CD87), glypican-1, and CD59 glycoprotein as aerolysin receptors, all predicted or known to be modified with a glycosylphosphatidylinositol anchor. The sortase-mediated reactions reported here can be readily extended to other pore forming proteins.     

Prevalence and Genetic Characterization of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Isolates from Slaughtered Animals in Bangladesh

To determine the prevalence of Shiga toxin (Stx)-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) in slaughter animals in Dhaka, Bangladesh, we collected rectal contents immediately after animals were slaughtered. Of the samples collected from buffalo (n = 174), cows (n = 139), and goats (n = 110), 82.2%, 72.7%, and 11.8% tested positive for stx₁ and/or stx₂, respectively. STEC could be isolated from 37.9%, 20.1%, and 10.0% of the buffalo, cows, and goats, respectively. STEC O157 samples were isolated from 14.4% of the buffalo, 7.2% of the cows, and 9.1% of the goats. More than 93% (n = 42) of the STEC O157 isolates were positive for the stx₂, eae, katP, etpD, and enterohemorrhagic E. coli hly (hly_EHEC) virulence genes. STEC O157 isolates were characterized by seven recognized phage types, of which types 14 (24.4%) and 31 (24.4%) were predominant. Subtyping of the 45 STEC O157 isolates by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis showed 37 distinct restriction patterns, suggesting a heterogeneous clonal diversity. In addition to STEC O157, 71 STEC non-O157 strains were isolated from 60 stx-positive samples from 23.6% of the buffalo, 12.9% of the cows, and 0.9% of the goats. The STEC non-O157 isolates belonged to 36 different O groups and 52 O:H serotypes. Unlike STEC O157, most of the STEC non-O157 isolates (78.9%) were positive for stx₁. Only 7.0% (n = 5) of the isolates were positive for hly_EHEC, and none was positive for eae, katP, and etpD. None of the isolates was positive for the iha, toxB, and efa1 putative adhesion genes. However, 35.2% (n = 25), 11.3% (n = 8), 12.7% (n = 9), and 12.7% (n = 9) of the isolates were positive for the lpf_O113, saa, lpfA_O157/01-141, and lpfA_O157/OI-154 genes, respectively. The results of this study provide the first evidence that slaughtered animals like buffalo, cows, and goats in Bangladesh are reservoirs for STEC, including the potentially virulent STEC strain O157.