A predictive model for freshwater bioassessment (Mondego River,Portugal)

We sampled macroinvertebrates at 75 locations in the Mondego river catchment, Central Portugal, and developed a predictive model for water quality assessment of this basin, based on the Reference Condition Approach. Sampling was done from June to September 2001. Fifty-five sites were identified as “Reference sites” and 20 sites were used as “Test sites” to test the model. At each site we also measured 40 habitat variables to characterize water physics and chemistry, habitat type, land use, stream hydrology and geographic location. Macroinvertebrates were generally identified to species or genus level; a total of 207 taxa were found. By Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic mean (UPGMA) clustering and analysis of species contribution to similarities percentage (SIMPER), two groups of reference sites were established. Using Discriminant Analysis (stepwise forward), four variables correctly predicted 78% of the reference sites to the appropriate group: stream order, pool quality, substrate quality and current velocity. Test sites’ environmental quality was established from their relative distance to reference sites, in MDS ordination space, using a series of bands (BEAST methodology). The model performed well at upstream sites, but at downstream sites it was compromised by the lack of reference sites. As with the English RIVPACS predictive model, the Mondego model should be continually improved with the addition of new reference sites. The adaptation of the Mondego model methodology to the Water Framework Directive is possible and would consist mainly of the integration of the WFD typology and increasing the number of ellipses that define quality bands. Handling editor: K. Martens     

Emerging infectious diseases and animal social systems

Emerging infectious diseases threaten a wide diversity of animals, and important questions remain concerning disease emergence in socially structured populations. We developed a spatially explicit simulation model to investigate whether—and under what conditions—disease-related mortality can impact rates of pathogen spread in populations of polygynous groups. Specifically, we investigated whether pathogen-mediated dispersal (PMD) can occur when females disperse after the resident male dies from disease, thus carrying infections to new groups. We also examined the effects of incubation period and virulence, host mortality and rates of background dispersal, and we used the model to investigate the spread of the virus responsible for Ebola hemorrhagic fever, which currently is devastating African ape populations. Output was analyzed using regression trees, which enable exploration of hierarchical and non-linear relationships. Analyses revealed that the incidence of disease in single-male (polygynous) groups was significantly greater for those groups containing an average of more than six females, while the total number of infected hosts in the population was most sensitive to the number of females per group. Thus, as expected, PMD occurs in polygynous groups and its effects increase as harem size (the number of females) increases. Simulation output further indicated that population-level effects of Ebola are likely to differ among multi-male–multi-female chimpanzees and polygynous gorillas, with larger overall numbers of chimpanzees infected, but more gorilla groups becoming infected due to increased dispersal when the resident male dies. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of social system on the spread of disease in wild mammals.     

The twin threshold model: risk-intermediate foraging by rufous hummingbirds, Selasphorus rufus

I developed two versions of the twin threshold model (TTM) to assess risk-sensitive foraging decisions by rufous hummingbirds. The model incorporates energy thresholds for both starvation and reproduction and assesses how three reward distributions with a common mean but different levels of variance interact with these critical thresholds to determine fitness. Fitness, a combination of survival and reproduction, is influenced by both the amount of variance in the distributions and the relative position of the common mean between the thresholds. The model predicts that risk-intermediate foraging is often the optimal policy, and that risk aversion is favoured as the common mean of the distributions approaches the starvation threshold, whereas risk preference is favoured as the common mean approaches the reproduction threshold. Tests with free-living hummingbirds supported these predictions. Hummingbirds were presented with three distributions of nectar rewards that had a common mean but Nil, Moderate or High levels of variance. Birds preferred intermediate levels of variance (Moderate) when presented with all three rewards simultaneously, and became more risk-averse as the mean of the distributions was decreased but more risk-prone as the mean was increased. Birds preferred Nil when it was paired with Moderate or with High, but preferred Moderate in the presence of Nil and High together. This reversal of preference is a violation of regularity, conventionally interpreted as irrational choice behaviour. I provide an alternative version of the TTM demonstrating that violations of regularity can occur when relative instead of absolute evaluation mechanisms are used.     

A catalogue of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Triticum monococcum</Emphasis> genes encoding toxic and immunogenic peptides for celiac disease patients

The celiac disease (CD) is an inflammatory condition characterized by injury to the lining of the small-intestine on exposure to the gluten of wheat, barley and rye. The involvement of gluten in the CD syndrome has been studied in detail in bread wheat, where a set of “toxic” and “immunogenic” peptides has been defined. For wheat diploid species, information on CD epitopes is poor. In the present paper, we have adopted a genomic approach in order to understand the potential CD danger represented by storage proteins in diploid wheat and sequenced a sufficiently large number of cDNA clones related to storage protein genes of Triticum monococcum. Four bona fide toxic peptides and 13 immunogenic peptides were found. All the classes of storage proteins were shown to contain harmful sequences. The major conclusion is that einkorn has the full potential to induce the CD syndrome, as already evident for polyploid wheats. In addition, a complete overview of the storage protein gene arsenal in T. monococcum is provided, including a full-length HMW x-type sequence and two partial HMW y-type sequences. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.