An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number

Background

Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth.

Methodology

The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R₀, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e.g., daily incidence counts).

Principal Findings

Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R₀ is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1^th serial interval using data from the i^th serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence.

Conclusions and Significance

This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists.     

Characterization of a New Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Cell Line for Mechanistic In Vitro and In Vivo Studies Relevant to Disease

Studies of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) have yielded substantial progress, however a lack of immortalized cell lines representative of the primary disease has hampered a full understanding of disease pathogenesis and development of new treatments. Here we describe a novel CLL cell line (OSU-CLL) generated by EBV transformation, which displays a similar cytogenetic and immunophenotype observed in the patient’s CLL (CD5 positive with trisomy 12 and 19). A companion cell line was also generated from the same patient (OSU-NB). This cell line lacked typical CLL characteristics, and is likely derived from the patient’s normal B cells. In vitro migration assays demonstrated that OSU-CLL exhibits migratory properties similar to primary CLL cells whereas OSU-NB has significantly reduced ability to migrate spontaneously or towards chemokine. Microarray analysis demonstrated distinct gene expression patterns in the two cell lines, including genes on chromosomes 12 and 19, which is consistent with the cytogenetic profile in this cell line. Finally, OSU-CLL was readily transplantable into NOG mice, producing uniform engraftment by three weeks with leukemic cells detectable in the peripheral blood spleen and bone marrow. These studies describe a new CLL cell line that extends currently available models to study gene function in this disease.     

Presynaptic to postsynaptic relationships of the neuromuscular junction are held constant across age and muscle fiber type

The neuromuscular junction (NMJ) displays considerable morphological plasticity as a result of differences in activity level, as well as aging. This is true of both presynaptic and postsynaptic components of the NMJ. Yet, despite these variations in NMJ structure, proper presynaptic to postsynaptic coupling must be maintained in order for effective cell‐to‐cell communication to occur. Here, we examined the NMJs of muscles with different activity profiles (soleus and EDL), on both slow‐ and fast‐twitch fibers in those muscles, and among young adult and aged animals. We used immunofluorescent techniques to stain nerve terminal branching, presynaptic vesicles, postsynaptic receptors, as well as fast/slow myosin heavy chain. Confocal microscopy was used to capture images of NMJs for later quantitative analysis. Data were subjected to a two‐way ANOVA (main effects for myofiber type and age), and in the event of a significant (p < 0.05) F ratio, a post hoc analysis was performed to identify pairwise differences. Results showed that the NMJs of different myofiber types routinely displayed differences in presynaptic and postsynaptic morphology (although the effect on NMJ size was reversed in the soleus and the EDL), but presynaptic to postsynaptic relationships were tightly maintained. Moreover, the ratio of presynaptic vesicles relative to nerve terminal branch length also was similar despite differences in muscles, their fiber type, and age. Thus, in the face of considerable overall structural differences of the NMJ, presynaptic to postsynaptic coupling remains constant, as does the relationship between presynaptic vesicles and the nerve terminal branches that support them. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Develop Neurobiol 73: 744–753, 2013     

Minimal Erythema Dose (MED) Testing

Ultraviolet radiation (UV) therapy is sometimes used as a treatment for various common skin conditions, including psoriasis, acne, and eczema. The dosage of UV light is prescribed according to an individual''s skin sensitivity. Thus, to establish the proper dosage of UV light to administer to a patient, the patient is sometimes screened to determine a minimal erythema dose (MED), which is the amount of UV radiation that will produce minimal erythema (sunburn or redness caused by engorgement of capillaries) of an individual''s skin within a few hours following exposure. This article describes how to conduct minimal erythema dose (MED) testing. There is currently no easy way to determine an appropriate UV dose for clinical or research purposes without conducting formal MED testing, requiring observation hours after testing, or informal trial and error testing with the risks of under- or over-dosing. However, some alternative methods are discussed.     

Underestimating Calorie Content When Healthy Foods Are Present: An Averaging Effect or a Reference-Dependent Anchoring Effect?

Objective

Previous studies have shown that estimations of the calorie content of an unhealthy main meal food tend to be lower when the food is shown alongside a healthy item (e.g. fruit or vegetables) than when shown alone. This effect has been called the negative calorie illusion and has been attributed to averaging the unhealthy (vice) and healthy (virtue) foods leading to increased perceived healthiness and reduced calorie estimates. The current study aimed to replicate and extend these findings to test the hypothesized mediating effect of ratings of healthiness of foods on calorie estimates.

Methods

In three online studies, participants were invited to make calorie estimates of combinations of foods. Healthiness ratings of the food were also assessed.

Results

The first two studies failed to replicate the negative calorie illusion. In a final study, the use of a reference food, closely following a procedure from a previously published study, did elicit a negative calorie illusion. No evidence was found for a mediating role of healthiness estimates.

Conclusion

The negative calorie illusion appears to be a function of the contrast between a food being judged and a reference, supporting the hypothesis that the negative calorie illusion arises from the use of a reference-dependent anchoring and adjustment heuristic and not from an ‘averaging’ effect, as initially proposed. This finding is consistent with existing data on sequential calorie estimates, and highlights a significant impact of the order in which foods are viewed on how foods are evaluated.     

Bone Marrow Deficiency of MCPIP1 Results in Severe Multi-Organ Inflammation but Diminishes Atherogenesis in Hyperlipidemic Mice

Objective

MCPIP1 is a newly identified protein that profoundly impacts immunity and inflammation. We aim to test if MCPIP1 deficiency in hematopoietic cells results in systemic inflammation and accelerates atherogenesis in mice.

Approach and Results

After lethally irradiated, LDLR^−/− mice were transplanted with bone marrow cells from either wild-type or MCPIP1^−/− mice. These chimeric mice were fed a western-type diet for 7 weeks. We found that bone marrow MCPIP1^−/− mice displayed a phenotype similar to that of whole body MCPIP1^−/− mice, with severe systemic and multi-organ inflammation. However, MCPIP1^−/− bone marrow recipients developed >10-fold less atherosclerotic lesions in the proximal aorta than WT bone marrow recipients, and essentially no lesions in en face aorta. The diminishment in atherosclerosis in bone marrow MCPIP1^−/− mice may be partially attributed to the slight decrease in their plasma lipids. Flow cytometric analysis of splenocytes showed that bone marrow MCPIP1^−/− mice contained reduced numbers of T cells and B cells, but increased numbers of regulatory T cells, Th17 cells, CD11b+/Gr1+ cells and CD11b+/Ly6C^low cells. This overall anti-atherogenic leukocyte profile may also contribute to the reduced atherogenesis. We also examined the cholesterol efflux capability of MCPIP1 deficient macrophages, and found that MCPIP1deficiency increased cholesterol efflux to apoAI and HDL, due to increased protein levels of ABCA1 and ABCG1.

Conclusions

Hematopoietic deficiency of MCPIP1 resulted in severe systemic and multi-organ inflammation but paradoxically diminished atherogenesis in mice. The reduced atheroegensis may be explained by the decreased plasma cholesterol levels, the anti-atherogenic leukocyte profile, as well as enhanced cholesterol efflux capability. This study suggests that, while atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease, the mechanisms underlying atherogenesis-associated inflammation in arterial wall versus the inflammation in solid organs may be substantially different.     

Monitoring of Mass Distribution Interventions for Trachoma in Plateau State,Nigeria

Mass drug administration (MDA) with antibiotics is a key component of the SAFE strategy for trachoma control. Guidelines recommend that where MDA is warranted the whole population be targeted with 80% considered the minimum acceptable coverage. In other countries, MDA is usually conducted by salaried Ministry of Health personnel (MOH). In Plateau State, Nigeria, the existing network of volunteer Community Directed Distributors (CDD) was used for the first trachoma MDA. We conducted a population-based cluster random survey (CRS) of MDA participation to determine the true coverage and compared this to coverage reported from CDD registers. We surveyed 1,791 people from 352 randomly selected households in 24 clusters in three districts in Plateau State in January 2011, following the implementation of MDA. Households were enumerated and all individuals present were asked about MDA participation. Household heads were questioned about household-level characteristics and predictors of participation. Individual responses were compared with the CDD registers. MDA coverage was estimated as 60.3% (95% CI 47.9–73.8%) by the survey compared with 75.8% from administrative program reports. CDD registration books for comparison with responses were available in 19 of the 24 clusters; there was a match for 658/682 (96%) of verifiable responses. CDD registers did not list 481 (41.3%) of the individuals surveyed. Gender and age were not associated with individual participation. Overall MDA coverage was lower than the minimum 80% target. The observed discrepancy between the administrative coverage estimate from program reports and the CRS was largely due to identification of communities missed by the MDA and not reported in the registers. CRS for evaluation of MDA provides a useful additional monitoring tool to CDD registers. These data support modification of distributor training and MDA delivery to increase coverage in subsequent rounds of MDA.     

A species in decline: genetic diversity and conservation of the Victorian eastern barred bandicoot, Perameles gunnii

The eastern barred bandicoot, Perameles gunnii, has undergone a dramatic decline in distribution and abundance on the mainland of Australia during the twentieth century. In 1988 a captive breeding program was initiated to reduce the chance of extinction. With the extinction of the last wild mainland population in the early 1990s, reintroductions from captive-bred P. gunnii have met limited success, and currently only two extant populations persist in predator proof enclosures in the State of Victoria. With ~20 years of breeding, there are concerns that the genetic diversity within the breeding program has declined and may inhibit current and future success of the program. We have used ten nuclear microsatellite loci and sequencing of two partial mitochondrial genes (cytochrome oxidase I and ATPase 6) to determine genetic diversity within current Victorian P. gunnii. These diversity estimates are compared with historic samples from the captive breeding program dating back to 1995, historic samples from the last wild mainland population found at Hamilton in 1992 and contemporary Tasmanian wild populations. Results indicate that the captive P. gunnii population in the State of Victoria has lost significant genetic diversity through time. Genetic diversity is also reduced in populations at Hamilton Community Parklands and Mount Rothwell. Samples from the last wild population at Hamilton collected in 1992, along with samples from Tasmanian P. gunnii, had significantly greater genetic diversity than contemporary mainland populations. The results are discussed with reference to management options for maintaining genetic diversity within Victorian P. gunnii, including crossing Victorian and Tasmanian P. gunnii to increase genetic diversity, adaptability and evolutionary potential.     

The Oxytricha trifallax Macronuclear Genome: A Complex Eukaryotic Genome with 16,000 Tiny Chromosomes

The macronuclear genome of the ciliate Oxytricha trifallax displays an extreme and unique eukaryotic genome architecture with extensive genomic variation. During sexual genome development, the expressed, somatic macronuclear genome is whittled down to the genic portion of a small fraction (∼5%) of its precursor “silent” germline micronuclear genome by a process of “unscrambling” and fragmentation. The tiny macronuclear “nanochromosomes” typically encode single, protein-coding genes (a small portion, 10%, encode 2–8 genes), have minimal noncoding regions, and are differentially amplified to an average of ∼2,000 copies. We report the high-quality genome assembly of ∼16,000 complete nanochromosomes (∼50 Mb haploid genome size) that vary from 469 bp to 66 kb long (mean ∼3.2 kb) and encode ∼18,500 genes. Alternative DNA fragmentation processes ∼10% of the nanochromosomes into multiple isoforms that usually encode complete genes. Nucleotide diversity in the macronucleus is very high (SNP heterozygosity is ∼4.0%), suggesting that Oxytricha trifallax may have one of the largest known effective population sizes of eukaryotes. Comparison to other ciliates with nonscrambled genomes and long macronuclear chromosomes (on the order of 100 kb) suggests several candidate proteins that could be involved in genome rearrangement, including domesticated MULE and IS1595-like DDE transposases. The assembly of the highly fragmented Oxytricha macronuclear genome is the first completed genome with such an unusual architecture. This genome sequence provides tantalizing glimpses into novel molecular biology and evolution. For example, Oxytricha maintains tens of millions of telomeres per cell and has also evolved an intriguing expansion of telomere end-binding proteins. In conjunction with the micronuclear genome in progress, the O. trifallax macronuclear genome will provide an invaluable resource for investigating programmed genome rearrangements, complementing studies of rearrangements arising during evolution and disease.