Projected climate impacts to South African maize and wheat production in 2055: a comparison of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches

Crop model‐specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs’ median‐projected maize and wheat yield changes were ?3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water‐use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO₂ accounted for much of the EM?MM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EM?MM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop–climate response uncertainties.     

Simulated warming does not impair seedling survival and growth of Nothofagus pumilio in the southern Andes

It has been predicted that subalpine forests will be negatively affected by global warming; however, direct responses to experimental warming have been scarcely examined in these systems. In this study we evaluated the effects of higher temperatures with and without water addition on the survival and growth of recently emerged (small) and large seedlings of the widely distributed species Nothofagus pumilio in subalpine forests of the southern Chilean Andes. We also examined the variations in seedling traits related to carbon balance in order to infer the causal mechanisms of survival and growth responses. Treatments of open top chambers (OTCs) were combined with watering in two locations with differing climates: Antillanca (40°S, humid) and Cerro Castillo (46°S, drier). OTCs increased mean and maximum air temperatures by 0.6 °C and 2–3 °C, respectively, and decreased soil humidity by 56% in Antillanca and 30% in Cerro Castillo, fulfilling methodological expectations and climate model predictions. After two complete growing seasons, the survival, relative growth rate (RGR), biomass, and a suite of seedling traits were measured and analyzed using mixed-effects models. Warming and warming in combination with watering significantly increased large seedling survival in Cerro Castillo. In Antillanca, warmer conditions increased the height, biomass, and leaf area of small seedlings, and the RGR of large seedlings. In this location, warming also caused lower leaf carbon isotopic composition in both age classes and higher specific leaf area in small seedlings, suggesting whole-plant carbon gain improvements; warming did not produce any drought effects. Our results indicate that warming produces positive effects on the seedling establishment of N. pumilio in the southern Andes, highlighting the importance of site-specific effects in response to climate change in widespread species. Site-specific effects can most likely explain the discrepancies between the results of this study and the predictions outlined by previous studies for these forests.     

Of mast and mean: differential‐temperature cue makes mast seeding insensitive to climate change

Mast‐seeding plants often produce high seed crops the year after a warm spring or summer, but the warm‐temperature model has inconsistent predictive ability. Here, we show for 26 long‐term data sets from five plant families that the temperature difference between the two previous summers (ΔT) better predicts seed crops. This discovery explains how masting species tailor their flowering patterns to sites across altitudinal temperature gradients; predicts that masting will be unaffected by increasing mean temperatures under climate change; improves prediction of impacts on seed consumers; demonstrates that strongly masting species are hypersensitive to climate; explains the rarity of consecutive high‐seed years without invoking resource constraints; and generates hypotheses about physiological mechanisms in plants and insect seed predators. For plants, ΔT has many attributes of an ideal cue. This temperature‐difference model clarifies our understanding of mast seeding under environmental change, and could also be applied to other cues, such as rainfall.     

Rapid Expectation Adaptation during Syntactic Comprehension

When we read or listen to language, we are faced with the challenge of inferring intended messages from noisy input. This challenge is exacerbated by considerable variability between and within speakers. Focusing on syntactic processing (parsing), we test the hypothesis that language comprehenders rapidly adapt to the syntactic statistics of novel linguistic environments (e.g., speakers or genres). Two self-paced reading experiments investigate changes in readers’ syntactic expectations based on repeated exposure to sentences with temporary syntactic ambiguities (so-called “garden path sentences”). These sentences typically lead to a clear expectation violation signature when the temporary ambiguity is resolved to an a priori less expected structure (e.g., based on the statistics of the lexical context). We find that comprehenders rapidly adapt their syntactic expectations to converge towards the local statistics of novel environments. Specifically, repeated exposure to a priori unexpected structures can reduce, and even completely undo, their processing disadvantage (Experiment 1). The opposite is also observed: a priori expected structures become less expected (even eliciting garden paths) in environments where they are hardly ever observed (Experiment 2). Our findings suggest that, when changes in syntactic statistics are to be expected (e.g., when entering a novel environment), comprehenders can rapidly adapt their expectations, thereby overcoming the processing disadvantage that mistaken expectations would otherwise cause. Our findings take a step towards unifying insights from research in expectation-based models of language processing, syntactic priming, and statistical learning.     

Patients' & Healthcare Professionals' Values Regarding True- & False-Positive Diagnosis when Colorectal Cancer Screening by CT Colonography: Discrete Choice Experiment

Purpose

To establish the relative weighting given by patients and healthcare professionals to gains in diagnostic sensitivity versus loss of specificity when using CT colonography (CTC) for colorectal cancer screening.

Materials and Methods

Following ethical approval and informed consent, 75 patients and 50 healthcare professionals undertook a discrete choice experiment in which they chose between “standard” CTC and “enhanced” CTC that raised diagnostic sensitivity 10% for either cancer or polyps in exchange for varying levels of specificity. We established the relative increase in false-positive diagnoses participants traded for an increase in true-positive diagnoses.

Results

Data from 122 participants were analysed. There were 30 (25%) non-traders for the cancer scenario and 20 (16%) for the polyp scenario. For cancer, the 10% gain in sensitivity was traded up to a median 45% (IQR 25 to >85) drop in specificity, equating to 2250 (IQR 1250 to >4250) additional false-positives per additional true-positive cancer, at 0.2% prevalence. For polyps, the figure was 15% (IQR 7.5 to 55), equating to 6 (IQR 3 to 22) additional false-positives per additional true-positive polyp, at 25% prevalence. Tipping points were significantly higher for patients than professionals for both cancer (85 vs 25, p<0.001) and polyps (55 vs 15, p<0.001). Patients were willing to pay significantly more for increased sensitivity for cancer (p = 0.021).

Conclusion

When screening for colorectal cancer, patients and professionals believe gains in true-positive diagnoses are worth much more than the negative consequences of a corresponding rise in false-positives. Evaluation of screening tests should account for this.     

How Do Medical Students Respond to Emotional Cues and Concerns Expressed by Simulated Patients during OSCE Consultations? – A Multilevel Study

Objectives

How medical students handle negative emotions expressed by simulated patients during Objective Structured Clinical Examinations (OSCE) has not been fully investigated. We aim to explore (i) whether medical students respond differently to different types of patients’ emotional cues; and (2) possible effects of patients’ progressive disclosure of emotional cues on students’ responses.

Methods

Forty OSCE consultations were video recorded and coded for patients’ expressions of emotional distress and students’ responses using a validated behavioural coding scheme (the Verona Coding Definitions of Emotional Sequence). Logistic multilevel regression was adopted to model the probability of the occurrence of student reduce space response behaviour as a function of the number of patients’ expressions of emotional cues.

Results

We found that medical students offered responses that differed to emotional cue types expressed by simulated patients. Students appeared to provide space to emotional cues when expressed in vague and unspecific words and reduce space to cues emphasizing physiological or cognitive correlates. We also found that medical students were less likely to explore patients’ emotional distress nearer the end of the consultation and when the duration of a patient speech turn got larger. Cumulative frequency of patients’ emotional cues also predicted students’ reduce space behaviour.

Practical Implications

Understanding how medical students manage negative emotions has significant implications for training programme development focusing on emotion recognition skills and patient-centred communication approach. In addition, the statistical approaches adopted by this study will encourage researchers in healthcare communication to search for appropriate analytical techniques to test theoretical propositions.     

Climate-Induced Range Shifts and Possible Hybridisation Consequences in Insects

Many ectotherms have altered their geographic ranges in response to rising global temperatures. Current range shifts will likely increase the sympatry and hybridisation between recently diverged species. Here we predict future sympatric distributions and risk of hybridisation in seven Mediterranean ischnurid damselfly species (I. elegans, I. fountaineae, I. genei, I. graellsii, I. pumilio, I. saharensis and I. senegalensis). We used a maximum entropy modelling technique to predict future potential distribution under four different Global Circulation Models and a realistic emissions scenario of climate change. We carried out a comprehensive data compilation of reproductive isolation (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic) between the seven studied species. Combining the potential distribution and data of reproductive isolation at different instances (habitat, temporal, sexual, mechanical and gametic), we infer the risk of hybridisation in these insects. Our findings showed that all but I. graellsii will decrease in distributional extent and all species except I. senegalensis are predicted to have northern range shifts. Models of potential distribution predicted an increase of the likely overlapping ranges for 12 species combinations, out of a total of 42 combinations, 10 of which currently overlap. Moreover, the lack of complete reproductive isolation and the patterns of hybridisation detected between closely related ischnurids, could lead to local extinctions of native species if the hybrids or the introgressed colonising species become more successful.     

Evidence of Unique and Generalist Microbes in Distantly Related Sympatric Intertidal Marine Sponges (Porifera: Demospongiae)

The diversity and specificity of microbial communities in marine environments is a key aspect of the ecology and evolution of both the eukaryotic hosts and their associated prokaryotes. Marine sponges harbor phylogenetically diverse and complex microbial lineages. Here, we investigated the sponge bacterial community and distribution patterns of microbes in three sympatric intertidal marine demosponges, Hymeniacidon perlevis, Ophlitaspongia papilla and Polymastia penicillus, from the Atlantic coast of Portugal using classical isolation techniques and 16S rRNA gene clone libraries. Microbial composition assessment, with nearly full-length 16S rRNA gene sequences (ca. 1400 bp) from the isolates (n = 31) and partial sequences (ca. 280 bp) from clone libraries (n = 349), revealed diverse bacterial communities and other sponge-associated microbes. The majority of the bacterial isolates were members of the order Vibrionales and other symbiotic bacteria like Pseudovibrio ascidiaceiocola, Roseobacter sp., Hahellaceae sp. and Cobetia sp. Extended analyses using ecological metrics comprising 142 OTUs supported the clear differentiation of bacterial community profiles among the sponge hosts and their ambient seawater. Phylogenetic analyses were insightful in defining clades representing shared bacterial communities, particularly between H. perlevis and the geographically distantly-related H. heliophila, but also among other sponges. Furthermore, we also observed three distinct and unique bacterial groups, Betaproteobactria (∼81%), Spirochaetes (∼7%) and Chloroflexi (∼3%), which are strictly maintained in low-microbial-abundance host species O. papilla and P. penicillus. Our study revealed the largely generalist nature of microbial associations among these co-occurring intertidal marine sponges.