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Visconti P Pressey RL Giorgini D Maiorano L Bakkenes M Boitani L Alkemade R Falcucci A Chiozza F Rondinini C 《Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences》2011,366(1578):2693-2702
Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world. 相似文献
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Ana Freitas Ribeiro Alessandra Cristina Guedes Pellini Beatriz Yuko Kitagawa Daniel Marques Geraldine Madalosso Gerrita de Cassia Nogueira Figueira Jo?o Fred Ricardo Kerti Mangabeira Albernaz Telma Regina Marques Pinto Carvalhanas Dirce Maria Trevisan Zanetta 《PloS one》2015,10(3)
This case-control study aimed to assess the risk factors for death from influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in patients with laboratory confirmation, who had severe acute respiratory illness-SARI and were hospitalized between June 28th and August 29th 2009, in the metropolitan regions of São Paulo and Campinas, Brazil. Medical charts of all the 193 patients who died (cases) and the 386 randomly selected patients who recovered (controls) were investigated in 177 hospitals. Household interviews were conducted with those who had survived and the closest relative of those who had died. 73.6% of cases and 38.1% of controls were at risk of developing influenza-related complications. The 18-to-59-year age group (OR = 2.31, 95%CI: 1.31–4.10 (reference up to 18 years of age)), presence of risk conditions for severity of influenza (OR = 1.99, 95%CI: 1.11–3.57, if one or OR = 6.05, 95%CI: 2.76–13.28, if more than one), obesity (OR = 2.73, 95%CI: 1.28–5.83), immunosuppression (OR = 3.43, 95%CI: 1.28–9.19), and search for previous care associated with the hospitalization (OR = 3.35, 95%CI: 1.75–6.40) were risk factors for death. Antiviral treatment performed within 72 hours of the onset of symptoms (OR = 0.17, 95%CI: 0.08–0.37, if within 48hours, and OR = 0.30, 95%CI: 0.11–0.81, if between 48 and 72 hours) was protective against death. The identification of high-risk patients and early treatment are important factors for reducing morbi-mortality from influenza. 相似文献