Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960–2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60–70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures.     

The effects of hatching date on timing of autumn migration in partial migrants – an individual approach

Timing of spring migration and breeding and their interaction with climate change has been widely studied in recent years, but the possible changes in timing of autumn migration have gained less attention. This work focuses on autumn migration and provides the first multi‐species individual‐based study of how hatching date affects the autumn migration date and migration age by using nestling ring data and re‐trappings of the same individuals during the autumn migration at the Hanko Bird Observatory, Finland. We studied three potentially multibrooded passerines (great tit, blue tit and coal tit) and two single‐brooded birds of prey (goshawk, sparrowhawk), all partially migratory short‐distance migrants. Individuals from late broods migrated at a younger age in all tit species and also in hawks the late hatched individuals tended to migrate at a younger age than the early‐hatched individuals. Late‐hatched individuals migrated later than early‐hatched individuals in blue and coal tits, where the latest hatchers represented second brood individuals. Based on our results, the time from hatching to autumn migration is not constant even among individuals of the same population. Our study indicates that climate warming induced advancement of avian breeding may cause changes in the timing of autumn migration through the frequency of second broods.     

Advanced autumn migration of sparrowhawk has increased the predation risk of long-distance migrants in Finland

Predation affects life history traits of nearly all organisms and the population consequences of predator avoidance are often larger than predation itself. Climate change has been shown to cause phenological changes. These changes are not necessarily similar between species and may cause mismatches between prey and predator. Eurasian sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus, the main predator of passerines, has advanced its autumn phenology by about ten days in 30 years due to climate change. However, we do not know if sparrowhawk migrate earlier in response to earlier migration by its prey or if earlier sparrowhawk migration results in changes to predation risk on its prey. By using the median departure date of 41 passerine species I was able to show that early migrating passerines tend to advance, and late migrating species delay their departure, but none of the species have advanced their departure times as much as the sparrowhawk. This has lead to a situation of increased predation risk on early migrating long-distance migrants (LDM) and decreased the overlap of migration season with later departing short-distance migrants (SDM). Findings highlight the growing list of problems of declining LDM populations caused by climate change. On the other hand it seems that the autumn migration may become safer for SDM whose populations are growing. Results demonstrate that passerines show very conservative response in autumn phenology to climate change, and thus phenological mismatches caused by global warming are not necessarily increasing towards the higher trophic levels.     

Near panmixia at the distribution‐wide scale but evidence of genetic differentiation in a geographically isolated population of the Terek Sandpiper Xenus cinereus

Populations from different parts of a species range may vary in their genetic structure, variation and dynamics. Geographically isolated populations or those located at the periphery of the range may differ from those located in the core of the range. Such peripheral populations may harbour genetic variation important for the adaptive potential of the species. We studied the distribution‐wide population genetic structure of the Terek Sandpiper Xenus cinereus using 13 microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region. In addition, we estimated whether genetic variation changes from the core towards the edge of the breeding range. We used the results to evaluate the management needs of the sampled populations. Distribution‐wide genetic structure was negligible; the only population that showed significant genetic differentiation was the geographically isolated Dnieper River basin population in Eastern Europe. The genetic variation of microsatellites decreased towards the edge of the distribution, supporting the abundant‐centre hypotheses in which the core area of the distribution preserves the most genetic variation; however, no such trend could be seen with mtDNA. Overall genetic variation was low and there were signs of past population contractions followed by expansion; this pattern is found in most northern waders. The current effective population size (N_e) is large, and therefore global conservation measures are not necessary. However, the marginal Dnieper River population needs to be considered its own management unit. In addition, the Finnish population warrants conservation actions due to its extremely small size and degree of isolation from the main range, which makes it vulnerable to genetic depletion.     

Gray plumage color is more cryptic than brown in snowy landscapes in a resident color polymorphic bird

Camouflage may promote fitness of given phenotypes in different environments. The tawny owl (Strix aluco) is a color polymorphic species with a gray and brown morph resident in the Western Palearctic. A strong selection pressure against the brown morph during snowy and cold winters has been documented earlier, but the selection mechanisms remain unresolved. Here, we hypothesize that selection favors the gray morph because it is better camouflaged against predators and mobbers in snowy conditions compared to the brown one. We conducted an online citizen science experiment where volunteers were asked to locate a gray or a brown tawny owl specimen from pictures taken in snowy and snowless landscapes. Our results show that the gray morph in snowy landscapes is the hardest to detect whereas the brown morph in snowy landscapes is the easiest to detect. With an avian vision model, we show that, similar to human perceivers, the brown morph is more conspicuous than the gray against coniferous tree trunks for a mobbing passerine. We suggest that with better camouflage, the gray morph may avoid mobbers and predators more efficiently than the brown morph and thus survive better in snowy environments. As winters are getting milder and shorter in the species range, the selection periods against brown coloration may eventually disappear or shift poleward.     

Optimized detection of transcription factor-binding sites in ChIP-seq experiments

We developed a computational procedure for optimizing the binding site detections in a given ChIP-seq experiment by maximizing their reproducibility under bootstrap sampling. We demonstrate how the procedure can improve the detection accuracies beyond those obtained with the default settings of popular peak calling software, or inform the user whether the peak detection results are compromised, circumventing the need for arbitrary re-iterative peak calling under varying parameter settings. The generic, open-source implementation is easily extendable to accommodate additional features and to promote its widespread application in future ChIP-seq studies. The peakROTS R-package and user guide are freely available at http://www.nic.funet.fi/pub/sci/molbio/peakROTS.     

Climatic responses in spring migration of boreal and arctic birds in relation to wintering area and taxonomy

Large‐scale climate fluctuations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have a marked effect on the timing of spring migration of birds. It has however been suggested that long‐distance migrants wintering in Africa could respond less to NAO than short‐distance migrants wintering in Europe, making them more vulnerable to climatic changes. We studied whether migratory boreal and arctic bird species returning from different wintering areas show differences in responses to the NAO in the timing of their spring migration. We used data on 75 species from two bird observatories in northern Europe (60°N). By extending the examination to the whole distribution of spring migration and to a taxonomically diverse set of birds, we aimed at finding general patterns of the effects of climate fluctuation on the timing of avian migration. Most species arrived earlier after winters with high NAO index. The degree of NAO‐response diminished with the phase of migration: the early part of a species’ migratory population responded more strongly than the later part. Early phase waterfowl responded strongest to NAO, but in later phases their response faded to non‐significant. This pattern may be related to winter severity and/or ice conditions in the Baltic. In the two other groups, gulls and waders and passerines, all phases of migration responded to NAO and fading with phase was non‐significant. The difference between waterfowl and other groups may be related to differences between the phenological development of their respective macrohabitats. Wintering area affected the strength of NAO response in a complicated way. On average medium distance migrants responded most strongly, followed by short‐distance migrants and partial migrants. Our results concerning the response of long‐distance migrants were difficult to interpret: there is an overall weak yet statistically significant effect, but patterns with phase of migration need further study. Our results highlight the importance of examining the whole distribution of migration and warrant the use of data sets from several sampling sites when studying climatic effects on the timing of avian life‐history events.     

Evaluation of the phosphorescent palladium(II)-coproporphyrin labels in separation-free hybridization assays

Palladium(II)-coproporphyrin label and a set of corresponding monofunctional labeling reagents with different linker arms were evaluated for labeling of oligonucleotides and subsequent use in hybridization assays. The properties of resulting oligonucleotide probes including phosphorescence spectra, quantum yields, lifetimes, and labeling yields were examined as functions of the label and oligonucleotide structures. Upon hybridization with complementary sequences bearing dabcyl, QSY-7, and rhodamine green dyes, the probes displayed strong quenching due to close proximity effects. Intensity and lifetime changes of the phosphorescence, distance, and temperature dependences were investigated in detail. The potential of the new label and probes for sensitive and separation-free hybridization assays was discussed.