Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.     

Characterization of Sugar and Polyphenolic Diversity in Floral Nectar of Different ‘Oblačinska’ Sour Cherry Clones

‘Obla?inska’ sour cherry, an autochthonous cultivar, is the most planted cultivar in Serbian orchards. Since fruit trees in temperate zone reward insects by producing nectar which ‘quality’ affects the efficiency of insect pollination, the aim of this study was analyzing of sugars and polyphenolics in floral nectar of 16 ‘Obla?inska’ sour cherry clones with different yielding potential. The contents of sugars and sugar alcohols were analyzed by ion chromatography, while polyphenolic profile was established using liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry technique. Fourteen sugars and six sugar alcohols were detected in nectar samples and the most abundant were fructose, glucose, and sucrose. Eleven polyphenols were quantified using available standards, while another 17 were identified according to their exact masses and characteristic fragmentations. Among quantified polyphenols, rutin, naringenin, and chrysin were the most abundant in nectar. Principal component analysis showed that some polyphenol components (naringin, naringenin, and rutin) together with sugars had high impact of spatial distribution of nectar samples on score plot.     

Prospective elementary science teachers’ understanding of photosynthesis and cellular respiration in the context of multiple biological levels as nested systems

In this study, Turkish prospective elementary science teachers’ understanding of photosynthesis and cellular respiration has been analysed within the contexts of ecosystem knowledge, organism knowledge and interconnection knowledge (IK). In the analysis, concept maps developed by 74 prospective teachers were used. The study was carried out with prospective teachers in their final year who were enrolled in the special teaching methods course. The results show that prospective teachers’ understanding of photosynthesis, cellular respiration, energy flow and matter cycling is quite different from one another’s. In addition, the present study revealed that prospective elementary science teachers showed weak understanding of energy flow and matter, cycling and cellular respiration concepts and IK category but they had strong understanding of photosynthesis concept. Prospective teachers also experience difficulties in understanding connections between macro- and microbiological systems. The study concludes with suggestions for more meaningful biology education.     

Synephrine and phenylephrine act as α‐amylase, α‐glycosidase,acetylcholinesterase, butyrylcholinesterase,and carbonic anhydrase enzymes inhibitors

In this paper, synephrine and phenylephrine compounds showed excellent inhibitory effects against human carbonic anhydrase (hCA) isoforms I and II, α‐amylase, α‐glycosidase, acetylcholinesterase (AChE), and butyrylcholinesterase (BChE). Synephrine and phenylephrine had K_i values of 199.02 ± 16.01 and 65.01 ± 5.00 μM against hCA I and 336.02 ± 74.01 and 92.04  ±  18.03 μM against hCA II, respectively. On the other hand, their K_i values were found to be 169.10  ±  80.03 and 88.03  ±  5.01 nM against AChE and 177.06  ±  6.01 and 78.03  ±  3.05 nM against BChE, respectively. α‐Amylase and α‐glycosidase enzymes were easily inhibited by these compounds. α‐Glycosidase inhibitors, generally defined to as starch blockers, are anti‐diabetic drugs that help to decrease post comestible blood glucose levels.     

In vitro propagation of Ancistrocladus abbreviatus Airy Shaw (Ancistrocladaceae)

Ancistrocladus abbreviatus Airy Shaw (Ancistrocladaceae), a West African liana producing naphthylisoquinoline alkaloids, was successfully raised from seeds in vitro. Clonal propagation was best achieved growing nodal stem segments on 1/5 Linsmaier and Skoog medium with full strength organics and supplemented with 0.02 μM thidiazuron, 4.44 μM 6-benzylaminopurine and 0.05 μM 1-naphthaleneacetic acid. Detached axillary shoots were grown on Anderson's Rhododendron medium devoid of phytohormones and rooted within one month when dipped in 4.92 μM indole-3-butyric acid. Rooted plants became acclimatized to nonsterile greenhouse conditions. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Tools for integrating range change,extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tool used to describe and forecast the potential influence of climate change on biodiversity. However, ENMs do not directly account for important biological and landscape processes likely to affect range dynamics at a variety of spatial scales. Recent advances to link ENMs with population models have focused on the fundamental step of integrating dispersal and metapopulation dynamics into forecasts of species geographic ranges. Here we use a combination of novel analyses and a synthesis of findings from published plant and animal case studies to highlight three seldom recognised, yet important, advantages of linking ENMs with demographic modelling approaches: 1) they provide direct measures of extinction risk in addition to measures of vulnerability based on change in the potential range area or total habitat suitability. 2) They capture life‐history traits that permit population density to vary in different ways in response to key spatial drivers, conditioned by the processes of global change. 3) They can be used to explore and rank the cost effectiveness of regional conservation alternatives and demographically oriented management interventions. Given these advantages, we argue that coupled methods should be used preferentially where data permits and when conservation management decisions require intervention, prioritization, or direct estimates of extinction risk.     

Impact of Laboratory Test Use Strategies in a Turkish Hospital

ObjectivesEliminating unnecessary laboratory tests is a good way to reduce costs while maintain patient safety. The aim of this study was to define and process strategies to rationalize laboratory use in Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital (ANH) and calculate potential savings in costs.MethodsA collaborative plan was defined by hospital managers; joint meetings with ANHTA and laboratory professors were set; the joint committee invited relevant staff for input, and a laboratory efficiency committee was created. Literature was reviewed systematically to identify strategies used to improve laboratory efficiency. Strategies that would be applicable in local settings were identified for implementation, processed, and the impact on clinical use and costs assessed for 12 months.ResultsLaboratory use in ANH differed enormously among clinics. Major use was identified in internal medicine. The mean number of tests per patient was 15.8. Unnecessary testing for chloride, folic acid, free prostate specific antigen, hepatitis and HIV testing were observed. Test panel use was pinpointed as the main cause of overuse of the laboratory and the Hospital Information System test ordering page was reorganized. A significant decrease (between 12.6–85.0%) was observed for the tests that were taken to an alternative page on the computer screen. The one year study saving was equivalent to 371,183 US dollars.ConclusionHospital-based committees including laboratory professionals and clinicians can define hospital based problems and led to a standardized approach to test use that can help clinicians reduce laboratory costs through appropriate use of laboratory tests.     

PATHWAYS TO SOCIAL EVOLUTION: RECIPROCITY,RELATEDNESS, AND SYNERGY

Many organisms live in populations structured by space and by class, exhibit plastic responses to their social partners, and are subject to nonadditive ecological and fitness effects. Social evolution theory has long recognized that all of these factors can lead to different selection pressures but has only recently attempted to synthesize how these factors interact. Using models for both discrete and continuous phenotypes, we show that analyzing these factors in a consistent framework reveals that they interact with one another in ways previously overlooked. Specifically, behavioral responses (reciprocity), genetic relatedness, and synergy interact in nontrivial ways that cannot be easily captured by simple summary indices of assortment. We demonstrate the importance of these interactions by showing how they have been neglected in previous synthetic models of social behavior both within and between species. These interactions also affect the level of behavioral responses that can evolve in the long run; proximate biological mechanisms are evolutionarily stable when they generate enough responsiveness relative to the level of responsiveness that exactly balances the ecological costs and benefits. Given the richness of social behavior across taxa, these interactions should be a boon for empirical research as they are likely crucial for describing the complex relationship linking ecology, demography, and social behavior.