Monitoring and modeling the invasion of the fast spreading alien Senecio inaequidens DC. in an alpine region

We modeled the distribution of the South African alien Senecio inaequidens DC. in the Aosta Valley, Western Italian Alps, using data extracted from the Regional floristic database and from an intensive field survey carried out in years 2009–2010. The aims of the work were (1) to evaluate whether the species is in the introduction, colonization, or establishment stage of invasion, (2) to detect the environmental factors that drive the invasion process, and (3) to highlight the potential range of distribution of the alien species. The modeling framework was a stepwise generalized linear model (GLM), using gridded presence/absence data and environmental predictors such as topography, climate, land use, and anthropogenic and natural disturbances. GLM were fit both with and without an additional independent variable to take into account current dispersal limitations. S. inaequidens displayed a very fast spread in the Aosta Valley in the years 1990–2010. The species was positively associated with roads and rivers, southern slopes, and negatively with elevation. However, it was found at an elevation of 1600 m, showing the ability to reach higher elevations than those observed for other invasive alien species, and confirming to be pre-adapted to mountain conditions. The difference between the species distribution models, with and without dispersal constraints, suggested that the availability of seed sources still limits the potential distribution of the species, rather than the environmental variables, and that the realized regional niche differs to a great extent from the equilibrium niche. When limitations to the seed source cease (i.e., in the establishment stage), the species will likely invade large areas that are currently characterized by pastures and grasslands with native species of high agricultural importance. The invasion of S. inaequidens should therefore be considered a serious threat, due to its potential to invade mountain regions, and in particular to colonize habitats used for grazing and forage, thus leading to a high risk for cattle and human health. We discuss the relevance of the results both concerning communication with the public and to support local eradication and control activities. The inclusion of S. inaequidens in the “black list” of the regional law for the conservation of alpine flora (L.R. 45/2009) will help to transfer the information and support invasion control, in particular at medium elevations.     

Meta-analysis Reveals Different Competition Effects on Tree Growth Resistance and Resilience to Drought

Ecosystems - Drought will increasingly threaten forest ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how competition influences tree growth response to drought is essential for forest management aiming at...     

Driving factors of a vegetation shift from Scots pine to pubescent oak in dry Alpine forests

An increasing number of studies have reported on forest declines and vegetation shifts triggered by drought. In the Swiss Rhone valley (Valais), one of the driest inner‐Alpine regions, the species composition in low elevation forests is changing: The sub‐boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominating the dry forests is showing high mortality rates. Concurrently the sub‐Mediterranean pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) has locally increased in abundance. However, it remains unclear whether this local change in species composition is part of a larger‐scale vegetation shift. To study variability in mortality and regeneration in these dry forests we analysed data from the Swiss national forest inventory (NFI) on a regular grid between 1983 and 2003, and combined it with annual mortality data from a monitoring site. Pine mortality was found to be highest at low elevation (below 1000 m a.s.l.). Annual variation in pine mortality was correlated with a drought index computed for the summer months prior to observed tree death. A generalized linear mixed‐effects model indicated for the NFI data increased pine mortality on dryer sites with high stand competition, particularly for small‐diameter trees. Pine regeneration was low in comparison to its occurrence in the overstorey, whereas oak regeneration was comparably abundant. Although both species regenerated well at dry sites, pine regeneration was favoured at cooler sites at higher altitude and oak regeneration was more frequent at warmer sites, indicating a higher adaptation potential of oaks under future warming. Our results thus suggest that an extended shift in species composition is actually occurring in the pine forests in the Valais. The main driving factors are found to be climatic variability, particularly drought, and variability in stand structure and topography. Thus, pine forests at low elevations are developing into oak forests with unknown consequences for these ecosystems and their goods and services.     

Geographical adaptation prevails over species‐specific determinism in trees’ vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear‐edge forests

Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short‐term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species’ limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short‐ and long‐term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species’ vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species‐specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species‐specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine‐scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.     

Lesion Load May Predict Long-Term Cognitive Dysfunction in Multiple Sclerosis Patients

Background

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) techniques provided evidences into the understanding of cognitive impairment (CIm) in Multiple Sclerosis (MS).

Objectives

To investigate the role of white matter (WM) and gray matter (GM) in predicting long-term CIm in a cohort of MS patients.

Methods

303 out of 597 patients participating in a previous multicenter clinical-MRI study were enrolled (49.4% were lost at follow-up). The following MRI parameters, expressed as fraction (f) of intracranial volume, were evaluated: cerebrospinal fluid (CSF-f), WM-f, GM-f and abnormal WM (AWM-f), a measure of lesion load. Nine years later, cognitive status was assessed in 241 patients using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), the Semantically Related Word List Test (SRWL), the Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST), and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT). In particular, being SRWL a memory test, both immediate recall and delayed recall were evaluated. MCST scoring was calculated based on the number of categories, number of perseverative and non-perseverative errors.

Results

AWM-f was predictive of an impaired performance 9 years ahead in SDMT (OR 1.49, CI 1.12–1.97 p = 0.006), PASAT (OR 1.43, CI 1.14–1.80 p = 0.002), SRWL-immediate recall (OR 1.72 CI 1.35–2.20 p<0.001), SRWL-delayed recall (OR 1.61 CI 1.28–2.03 p<0.001), MCST-category (OR 1.52, CI 1.2–1.9 p<0.001), MCST-perseverative error(OR 1.51 CI 1.2–1.9 p = 0.001), MCST-non perseverative error (OR 1.26 CI 1.02–1.55 p = 0.032).

Conclusion

In our large MS cohort, focal WM damage appeared to be the most relevant predictor of the long-term cognitive outcome.     

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: an agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant proximate drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.     

Tryptase, CD15 and IL-15 as reliable markers for the determination of soft and hard ligature marks vitality

In forensic practice, it is required to distinguish between suicidal or accidental hanging and simulated hanging. Conventional macroscopic and histological findings may be unreliable; vital signs are often absent, and they can be produced postmortem. The application of immunohistochemical techniques opened up a new field of investigation in the issue of ligature marks. We investigated the immunohistochemical expression of a panel of cytokines and inflammatory cells in skin specimens in autopsy cases of death due to hanging, to discuss their significance in assessing whether hanging mark and signs occurred before or after the death of the victim. We selected 21 cases in which broad, soft and yielding materials were used and 28 cases in which materials used for hanging were hard. The control group included the following 21 cases: 14 cases of sudden cardiac death and 7 cases of post-mortem hanging (suspension) of bodies (drug overdose or suffocation as cause of death in all the cases). An immunohistochemical investigation of skin samples was performed utilizing antibodies anti- tryptase, fibronectin, TNFa, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, MCP-1, IL-15, IL-1?, CD45, CD4, CD3, CD8, CD68, CD20, CD15. We conclude that tryptase, IL-15, and CD15 appear to be reliable parameters in the determination of ligature marks' vitality with the accuracy needed for forensic purposes. This fact especially applies to soft marks which are particularly difficult to evaluate on the basis of gross examination and of conventional histological studies.     

Effects of c-Jun and a negative dominant mutation of c-Jun on differentiation and gene expression in lens epithelial cells

We have used a retroviral vector (RCAS) to overexpress wild-type chicken c-Jun or a deletion mutant of chicken c-Jun (JunΔ7) lacking the DNA binding region to investigate the possible role of c-Jun in lens epithelial cell proliferation and differentiation. Both constructs were efficiently expressed in primary cultures of embryonic chicken lens epithelial cells. Overexpression of c-Jun increased the rate of cell proliferation and greatly delayed the appearance of “lentoid bodies,” structures which contain differentiated cells expressing fiber cell markers. Excess c-Jun expression also significantly decreased the level of β_A3/A1-crystallin mRNA, without affecting αA-crystallin mRNA. In contrast, the mutated protein, JunΔ7, had no effect no proliferation or differentiation but markedly increased the level of αA-crystallin mRNA in proliferating cell cultures. These results suggest that c-Jun or Jun-related proteins may be negative regulators of αA- and β_A3/A1-crystallin genes in proliferating lens cells.     

Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models

1. Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on forest systems are being collected at a rapid pace and across scales. Forest models have a long history in bridging data with ecological knowledge and can simulate forest dynamics over spatio‐temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations.
2. We describe the development that different forest modelling communities have followed to underpin the leverage that simulation models offer for advancing our understanding of forest ecosystems.
3. Using three widely applied but contrasting approaches – species distribution models, individual‐based forest models, and dynamic global vegetation models – as examples, we show how scientific and technical advances have led models to transgress their initial objectives and limitations. We provide an overview of recent model applications on current important ecological topics and pinpoint ten key questions that could, and should, be tackled with forest models in the next decade.
4. Synthesis. This overview shows that forest models, due to their complementarity and mutual enrichment, represent an invaluable toolkit to address a wide range of fundamental and applied ecological questions, hence fostering a deeper understanding of forest dynamics in the context of global change.

Forest models can help understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure and diversity, since they can can simulate forest dynamics over spatio‐temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations. Here we describe the development of three widely applied but contrasting forest mo−delling approaches — species distribution models, individual‐based models and dynamic global vegetation models. We provide an overview of recent model applications and pinpoint ten key questions that could, and should, be tackled with forest models in the next decade.