Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease: the case of dengue epidemics

The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models. Conversely, including contact heterogeneity on different scales (intra-households, inter-house, inter-areas) allows the recovery of not only the EI epidemiological curve but also the qualitative patterns of Brazilian urban dengue epidemic in more complex situations.     

Impact of spatial heterogeneity on a predator-prey system dynamics

This paper deals with the study of a predator-prey model in a patchy environment. Prey individuals moves on two patches, one is a refuge and the second one contains predator individuals. The movements are assumed to be faster than growth and predator-prey interaction processes. Each patch is assumed to be homogeneous. The spatial heterogeneity is obtained by assuming that the demographic parameters (growth rates, predation rates and mortality rates) depend on the patches. On the predation patch, we use a Lotka-Volterra model. Since the movements are faster that the other processes, we may assume that the frequency of prey and predators become constant and we would get a global predator-prey model, which is shown to be a Lotka-Volterra one. However, this simplified model at the population level does not match the dynamics obtained with the complete initial model. We explain this phenomenom and we continue the analysis in order to give a two-dimensional predator-prey model that gives the same dynamics as that provided by the complete initial one. We use this simplified model to study the impact of spatial heterogeneity and movements on the system stability. This analysis shows that there is a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium in the positive quadrant, i.e. the spatial heterogeneity stabilizes the equilibrium.     

The effect of grazing on the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation

Grazing can alter the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation, influencing ecosystem processes and biodiversity. Our objective was to identify why grazing causes increases in the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation in some cases, but decreases in others. The immediate effect of grazing on heterogeneity depends on the interaction between the spatial pattern of grazing and the pre-existing spatial pattern of vegetation. Depending on the scale of observation and on the factors that determine animal distribution, grazing patterns may be stronger or weaker than vegetation patterns, or may mirror the spatial structure of vegetation. For each possible interaction between these patterns, we make a prediction about resulting changes in the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation. Case studies from the literature support our predictions, although ecosystems characterized by strong plant-soil interactions present important exceptions. While the processes by which grazing causes increases in heterogeneity are clear, how grazing leads to decreases in heterogeneity is less so. To explore how grazing can consistently dampen the fine-scale spatial patterns of competing plant species, we built a cell-based simulation model that features two competing plant species, different grazing patterns, and different sources of vegetation pattern. Only the simulations that included neighborhood interactions as a source of vegetation pattern produced results consistent with the predictions we derived from the literature review.     

The spatial spread of invasions: new developments in theory and evidence

We review and synthesize recent developments in the study of the spread of invasive species, emphasizing both empirical and theoretical approaches. Recent theoretical work has shown that invasive species spread is a much more complex process than the classical models suggested, as long range dispersal events can have a large influence on the rate of range expansion through time. Empirical work goes even further, emphasizing the role of spatial heterogeneity, temporal variability, other species, and evolution. As in some of the classic work on spread, the study of range expansion of invasive species provides unique opportunities to use differences between theory and data to determine the important underlying processes that control spread rates.     

Species traits in relation to temporal and spatial heterogeneity in streams: a test of habitat templet theory

1. The habitat templet approach depends on defining templet axes appropriate to the organism(s) of interest, predicting the traits of species associated with different parts of the templet, and testing these predictions in a range of habitats whose positions in the templet have been determined. 2. In this study of thirty-five benthic insect taxa at fifty-four tributary sites of the Taieri River on the South Island of New Zealand, we chose as the temporal axis the intensity/frequency of disturbance, defined in terms of bed movement during high discharge events. As the spatial axis, we postulated that three features would provide refugia and therefore ameliorate disturbance—percentage of the bed with low shear stress, percentage of the bed made up of large substratum particles and availability of interstitial space in the bed—from which we derived a combined multivariate refugium axis. 3. More disturbed communities contained a significantly higher percentage of individuals possessing the following traits: small size, high adult mobility, habitat generalist (each predicted to confer resilience in response to disturbance), clinger, streamlined/flattened and with two or more life stages outside the stream (each predicted to confer resistance in the face of disturbance). When analyses were performed on the percentage of taxa having particular traits, the predicted positive relationships with average bed movement were found for high adult mobility and habitat generalist traits. 4. The percentage of variance in trait scores explained by intensity of disturbance was generally higher in sites with less refugia available and lower in sites further from the headwaters. The percentage of variance explained was higher in sites recently subject to a major high discharge disturbance, suggesting that disturbances tend to strengthen the pattern of preponderance of resilience/resistance traits. 5. We mapped insect taxa onto the two-dimensional templet, following Grime et al.’s triangular terrestrial plant classification. The full variety of resistance and resilience traits were represented in insect species throughout the templet, but taxa associated with more disturbed conditions generally displayed a larger number of resilience and resistance traits, combined, than taxa associated with more stable stream beds.     

Patterns of weed invasion: evidence from the spatial genetic structure of Raphanus raphanistrum

Knowledge of the pathways of colonization is critical for risk assessment and management of weeds. In this study we adopted a landscape genetics approach to assess the impact of human disturbances and large-scale environmental features on the colonization of a global agricultural weed, Raphanus raphanistrum. We used nuclear microsatellite and chloroplast DNA sequence data to quantify the pattern of genetic diversity in 336 plants collected from 13 sites throughout the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, one of the world’s recognized global biodiversity hotspots. The lack of strong spatial genetic structure suggests that R. raphanistrum colonized throughout the Cape Floristic Region via both local diffusive spread and long-distance jump dispersal. Furthermore, 47 % of analyzed plants contained Raphanus sativus (cultivated radish) chloroplast genomes, indicating historical and/or contemporary gene flow between wild and cultivated radish populations. The prevalence of high genetic diversity and long-distance gene flow are discussed in the context of ecological risk assessment.     

The effect of spatial heterogeneity on the persistence of predator-prey interactions

The effect of spatially discontinuous environments on predator-prey systems is examined by using a computer simulation model. It is shown that increasing prey dispersal and decreasing predator dispersal do not necessarily have a stabilizing influence on the interaction, as had been concluded by previous workers. The stability of predator-prey interaction depends on the interaction of the dispersal process with normal reproduction and feeding of the predator and prey species.     

Species coexistence by permanent spatial heterogeneity in a lottery model

We studied the effect of permanent spatial heterogeneity in promoting species coexistence in a lottery model. The system consisted of multiple habitats, each composed of a number of sites occupied by adults of two species. Larvae produced from different habitats were mixed in a common pool. When an adult died, the vacant site became occupied by an individual randomly chosen from the larval pool. If there were n habitats, there could be up to n-1 internal equilibria with both species in addition to two single-species equilibria. These equilibria and their local stability can be calculated from a single function, indicating the difference among species in their average lifetime reproductive success. Our main result is that between-habitat variation in the ratio of mortalities of two species promotes coexistence, while that of reproductive rates does not. This conclusion is the opposite of the role of temporal variation in the standard lottery model, in which between-year variation in the reproductive rate, but not that in the mortalities, promotes coexistence.     

Analysis of a diffusive epidemic system with spatial heterogeneity and lag effect of media impact

Journal of Mathematical Biology - Aposematism is the signalling of a defence for the deterrence of predators. We presently focus on aposematic organisms that exhibit chemical defences, which are...     

Effects of exotic grass invasion on spatial heterogeneity in the ground-layer of grassy woodlands

We quantified the effects of exotic annual grass invasion on the ground-layer structure of grassy eucalypt woodlands, with the aim of determining if weed invasion decreased gap size and plant basal area leading to reduced spatial heterogeneity. We measured plant density, distance between plants and basal plant area in woodland sites which ranged from zero to 100% exotic plant cover in the ground-layer. The ground-layer in uninvaded woodlands was heterogeneous, with a large variation in basal plant area and distance between plants. Exotic annual grass density was positively correlated with total plant density, whereas native plant density was negatively correlated. Total plant basal area decreased as total plant density increased, with a lower total plant area in exotic dominated transects compared to native dominated. Variation in basal plant area decreased with increasing plant density. Exotic annual grasses were more closely spaced together (smaller gap size) and had a smaller basal area than the native grasses and rushes. There was also less variation in basal area and gap size with individual exotic annual grasses compared to the native grasses. Inter-plant distance was greater for both the native and exotic grasses when they had native grasses neighbouring them instead of exotic grasses. These findings show that woodlands invaded by exotic annual grasses have relatively less spatial heterogeneity in the ground-layer. These results have implications for other aspects of perennial grassy ecosystems invaded by annual grasses, including plant recruitment and restoration strategies.     

The effect of weekend curfews on epidemics: a Monte Carlo simulation

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is being responded with various methods, applying vaccines, experimental treatment options, total lockdowns or partial curfews. Weekend curfews are among the methods for reducing the number of infected persons, and this method is practically applied in some countries such as Turkey. In this study, the effect of weekend curfews on reducing the spread of a contagious disease, such as COVID-19, is modeled using a Monte Carlo algorithm with a hybrid lattice model. In the simulation setup, a fictional country with three towns and 26,610 citizens were used as a model. Results indicate that applying a weekend curfew reduces the ratio of ill cases from 0.23 to 0.15. The results also show that applying personal precautions such as social distancing is important for reducing the number of cases and deaths. If the probability of disease spread can be reduced to 0.1, in that case, the death ratio can be minimized down to 0.     

Self-deception as self-signalling: a model and experimental evidence

Self-deception has long been the subject of speculation and controversy in psychology, evolutionary biology and philosophy. According to an influential ‘deflationary’ view, the concept is an over-interpretation of what is in reality an instance of motivationally biased judgement. The opposite view takes the interpersonal deception analogy seriously, and holds that some part of the self actively manipulates information so as to mislead the other part. Building on an earlier self-signalling model of Bodner and Prelec, we present a game-theoretic model of self-deception. We propose that two distinct mechanisms collaborate to produce overt expressions of belief: a mechanism responsible for action selection (including verbal statements) and an interpretive mechanism that draws inferences from actions and generates emotional responses consistent with the inferences. The model distinguishes between two modes of self-deception, depending on whether the self-deceived individual regards his own statements as fully credible. The paper concludes with a new experimental study showing that self-deceptive judgements can be reliably and repeatedly elicited with financial incentives in a categorization task, and that the degree of self-deception varies with incentives. The study also finds evidence of the two forms of self-deception. The psychological benefits of self-deception, as measured by confidence, peak at moderate levels.     

The effect of daily hassles on salivary IgA: experimental evidence.

The study aimed at evidencing the suppressive effect of daily hassles on salivary immunoglobulin A (S-IgA); in fact, previous research did not detect a clear relationship between the two variables. Twenty-four subjects were tested as to the hassles that had occurred in their recent life and to S-IgA; the tests were repeated three times, with an interval of four weeks between each. The results show that the variation of S-IgA values between times 2 and 3 is associated with the variation of hassles between times 1 and 2 (r = -.46, p < .01).