Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5° (latitude × longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960–2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991–2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041–2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5–5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long‐term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics.     

Anthropogenic modifications to fire regimes in the wider Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem

Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti‐Mara show high spatial variability—with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short‐term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems.     

基于MODIS时序数据的黑龙江流域火烧迹地提取

火烧迹地信息是研究火灾的重要参数和基础数据,也是研究全球生态系统和碳循环扰动的重要依据之一。以受森林火灾影响较为严重的黑龙江流域为研究区,以MODIS时间序列数据为数据源建立了一个分为两阶段的火烧基地提取算法(即首先设定较为严格的提取条件对最有可能发生火灾的像元——核心像元进行提取,然后设定较为宽松的阈值提取距离核心像元一定范围内的火烧像元),对2000—2011年的火烧迹地信息进行了提取,生成了研究区长时间序列火烧迹地分布图,并对其时空分布特征进行了分析。选择黑龙江省为典型验证区对算法精度进行了验证,结果显示算法的整体精度较之以往的算法有了一定程度的提高。     

Modelling Fire Frequency in a Cerrado Savanna Protected Area

Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world’s most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997–2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects.     

Convergence of bark investment according to fire and climate structures ecosystem vulnerability to future change

Fire regimes in savannas and forests are changing over much of the world. Anticipating the impact of these changes requires understanding how plants are adapted to fire. In this study, we test whether fire imposes a broad selective force on a key fire‐tolerance trait, bark thickness, across 572 tree species distributed worldwide. We show that investment in thick bark is a pervasive adaptation in frequently burned areas across savannas and forests in both temperate and tropical regions where surface fires occur. Geographic variability in bark thickness is largely explained by annual burned area and precipitation seasonality. Combining environmental and species distribution data allowed us to assess vulnerability to future climate and fire conditions: tropical rainforests are especially vulnerable, whereas seasonal forests and savannas are more robust. The strong link between fire and bark thickness provides an avenue for assessing the vulnerability of tree communities to fire and demands inclusion in global models.     

Landscape analysis of Aboriginal fire management in Central Arnhem Land, north Australia

Aim To describe the spatial and temporal pattern of landscape burning with increasing distance from Aboriginal settlements. Location Central Arnhem Land, a stronghold of traditional Aboriginal culture, in the Australian monsoon tropics. Methods Geographical information system and global positioning system technologies were used to measure spatial and temporal changes in fire patterns over a one decade period in a 100 × 80 km area that included a cluster of Aboriginal settlements and a large uninhabited area. The major vegetation types were mapped and fire activity was assessed by systematic visual interpretation of sequences of cloud‐free Landsat satellite images acquired in the first (May to July) and second (August to October) halves of the 7‐month dry season. Fire activity in the middle and end of one dry season near an Aboriginal settlement was mapped along a 90‐km field traverse. Canopy scorch height was determined by sampling burnt areas beside vehicle tracks. Results Satellite fire mapping was 90% accurate if the satellite pass followed shortly after a fire event, but the reliability decayed dramatically with increasing time since the fire. Thus the satellite mapping provided a conservative index of fire activity that was unable to provide reliable estimates of the spatial extent of individual fires. There was little landscape fire activity in the first half of the dry season, that was mostly restricted to areas immediately surrounding Aboriginal settlements, with burning of both inhabited and uninhabited landscapes concentrated in the second half of the dry season. The mean decadal fire indices for the three dominant vegetation types in the study area were three in the plateau savanna, two in the sandstone and five in the wet savanna. The spatial and temporal variability of Aboriginal burning apparent in the satellite analyses were verified by field traverse surrounding a single settlement. Fires set by Aborigines had low scorch height of tree crowns reflecting low intensity, despite generally occurring late in the dry season. Conclusions Our findings support the idea that Aboriginal burning created a fine‐scale mosaic of burnt and unburnt areas but do not support the widely held view that Aboriginal burning was focused primarily in the first half of the dry season (before July). The frequency and scale of burning by Aborigines appears to be lower compared with European fire regimes characterized by fires of annual or biennial frequencies that burn large areas. The European fire regime appears to have triggered a positive feedback cycle between fire frequency and flammable grass fuels. The widely advocated management objective of burning in the first half of the dry season burning provides one of the few options to control fires once heavy grass fuel loads have become established, however we suggest it is erroneous to characterize such a regime as reflecting traditional Aboriginal burning practices. The preservation of Aboriginal fire management regimes should be a high management priority given the difficulty in breaking the grass‐fire cycle once it has been initiated.     

Spatial and temporal variability of fires in relation to ecosystems,land tenure and rainfall in savannas of northern South America

Fire is a predominant factor forcing global terrestrial biomass dynamics, with more than 30% of the land surface showing frequent burning, particularly in the tropics, where it mostly affects savannas ecosystems annually. Savannas, which cover approximately 269 million ha in South America, play a major role in the global carbon cycle. They are affected by increasing human pressures and global climate change. Using satellite data, this study quantifies vegetation burning in the Colombian Llanos savannas for the period 2000–2008, and analyzes how fire spatial pattern, frequency and extent vary with ecosystem type, land tenure and rainfall. On average 2.75±0.5 million ha (24±4.2%) of the savannas burn each year. Burned area is highly variable, with 3.4 million ha burned in 2002–2003 and <1.9 million ha in 2005–2006. However, during the 2000–2008 period near of 3.7 million ha (33.5%) of the savannas never burned. Compared with the average 8–10 years of fire return time for the tropics and subtropics, these savannas burn twice as often. In addition, the average burn size figure for tropical and subtropical grassland savannas (with <5% trees) of 7000 ha (median 5000 ha), is about seven times the average burned patch size we found in our study. Fires predominate in the well‐drained high plain savannas, lowest figures occurring along the Andean foothills, in forested areas and in pasture and croplands. Annual proportion burned varies with land tenure, being highest in National Parks. This study is the first complete regional map of fire disturbance in a South American savanna. This detailed regional data provides a unique opportunity for increasing the accuracy of global carbon emission calculations.     

Fire Severity in Conifer Forests of the Sierra Nevada, California

Natural disturbances are an important source of environmental heterogeneity that have been linked to species diversity in ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal patterns of disturbances are often evaluated separately. Consequently, rates and scales of existing disturbance processes and their effects on biodiversity are often uncertain. We have studied both spatial and temporal patterns of contemporary fires in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California, USA. Patterns of fire severity were analyzed for conifer forests in the three largest fires since 1999. These fires account for most cumulative area that has burned in recent years. They burned relatively remote areas where there was little timber management. To better characterize high-severity fire, we analyzed its effect on the survival of pines. We evaluated temporal patterns of fire since 1950 in the larger landscapes in which the three fires occurred. Finally, we evaluated the utility of a metric for the effects of fire suppression. Known as Condition Class it is now being used throughout the United States to predict where fire will be uncharacteristically severe. Contrary to the assumptions of fire management, we found that high-severity fire was uncommon. Moreover, pines were remarkably tolerant of it. The wildfires helped to restore landscape structure and heterogeneity, as well as producing fire effects associated with natural diversity. However, even with large recent fires, rates of burning are relatively low due to modern fire management. Condition Class was not able to predict patterns of high-severity fire. Our findings underscore the need to conduct more comprehensive assessments of existing disturbance regimes and to determine whether natural disturbances are occurring at rates and scales compatible with the maintenance of biodiversity.     

Carbon emissions from fires in tropical and subtropical ecosystems

Global carbon emissions from fires are difficult to quantify and have the potential to influence interannual variability and long‐term trends in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. We used 4 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) satellite data and a biogeochemical model to assess spatial and temporal variability of carbon emissions from tropical fires. The TRMM satellite data extended between 38°N and 38°S and covered the period from 1998 to 2001. A relationship between TRMM fire counts and burned area was derived using estimates of burned area from other satellite fire products in Africa and Australia and reported burned areas from the United States. We modified the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford‐Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model to account for both direct combustion losses and the decomposition from fire‐induced mortality, using both TRMM and Sea‐viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite data as model drivers. Over the 1998–2001 period, we estimated that the sum of carbon emissions from tropical fires and fuel wood use was 2.6 Pg C yr^?1. An additional flux of 1.2 Pg C yr^?1 was released indirectly, as a result of decomposition of vegetation killed by fire but not combusted. The sum of direct and indirect carbon losses from fires represented 9% of tropical and subtropical net primary production (NPP). We found that including fire processes in the tropics substantially alters the seasonal cycle of net biome production by shifting carbon losses to months with low soil moisture and low rates of soil microbial respiration. Consequently, accounting for fires increases growing season net flux by ～12% between 38°N and 38°S, with the greatest effect occurring in highly productive savanna regions.     

Biomass consumption by surface fires across Earth's most fire prone continent

Landscape fire is a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. Predicting biomass consumption by fire at large spatial scales is essential to understanding carbon dynamics and hence how fire management can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase ecosystem carbon storage. An Australia‐wide field‐based survey (at 113 locations) across large‐scale macroecological gradients (climate, productivity and fire regimes) enabled estimation of how biomass combustion by surface fire directly affects continental‐scale carbon budgets. In terms of biomass consumption, we found clear trade‐offs between the frequency and severity of surface fires. In temperate southern Australia, characterised by less frequent and more severe fires, biomass consumed per fire was typically very high. In contrast, surface fires in the tropical savannas of northern Australia were very frequent but less severe, with much lower consumption of biomass per fire (about a quarter of that in the far south). When biomass consumption was expressed on an annual basis, biomass consumed was far greater in the tropical savannas (>20 times that of the far south). This trade‐off is also apparent in the ratio of annual carbon consumption to net primary production (NPP). Across Australia's naturally vegetated land area, annual carbon consumption by surface fire is equivalent to about 11% of NPP, with a sharp contrast between temperate southern Australia (6%) and tropical northern Australia (46%). Our results emphasise that fire management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should focus on fire prone tropical savanna landscapes, where the vast bulk of biomass consumption occurs globally. In these landscapes, grass biomass is a key driver of frequency, intensity and combustion completeness of surface fires, and management actions that increase grass biomass are likely to lead to increases in greenhouse gas emissions from savanna fires.     

Modelling Spatial Interactions Among Fire,Spruce Budworm,and Logging in the Boreal Forest

In the boreal forest, fire, insects, and logging all affect spatial patterns in forest age and species composition. In turn, spatial legacies in age and composition can facilitate or constrain further disturbances and have important consequences for forest spatial structure and sustainability. However, the complex three-way interactions among fire, insects, and logging and their combined effects on forest spatial structure have seldom been investigated. We used a spatially explicit landscape simulation model to examine these interactions. Specifically, we investigated how the amount and the spatial scale of logging (cutblock size) in combination with succession, fire, and spruce budworm outbreaks affect area burned and area defoliated. Simulations included 30 replicates of 300 years for each of 19 different disturbance scenarios. More disturbances increased both the fragmentation and the proportion of coniferous species and imposed additional constraints on the extent of each disturbance. We also found that harvesting legacies affect fire and budworm differently due to differences in forest types consumed by each disturbance. Contrary to expectation, budworm defoliation did not affect area burned at the temporal scales studied and neither amount of logging nor cutblock size influenced defoliation extent. Logging increased fire size through conversion of more of the landscape to early seral, highly flammable forest types. Although logging increased the amount of budworm host species, spruce budworm caused mortality was reduced due to reductions in forest age. In general, we found that spatial legacies do not influence all disturbances equally and the duration of a spatial legacy is limited when multiple disturbances are present. Further information on post-disturbance succession is still needed to refine our understanding of long-term disturbance interactions.     

Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1°× 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th century

A yearly global fire history is a prerequisite for quantifying the contribution of previous fires to the past and present global carbon budget. Vegetation fires can have both direct (combustion) and long‐term indirect effects on the carbon cycle. Every fire influences the ecosystem carbon budget for many years, as a consequence of internal reorganization, decomposition of dead biomass, and regrowth. We used a two‐step process to estimate these effects. First we synthesized the available data available for the 1980s or 1990s to produce a global fire map. For regions with no data, we developed estimates based on vegetation type and history. Second, we then worked backwards to reconstruct the fire history. This reconstruction was based on published data when available. Where it was not, we extrapolated from land use practices, qualitative reports and local studies, such as tree ring analysis. The resulting product is intended as a first approximation for questions about consequences of historical changes in fire for the global carbon budget. We estimate that an average of 608 Mha yr^?1 burned (not including agricultural fires) at the end of the 20th century. 86% of this occurred in tropical savannas. Fires in forests with higher carbon stocks consumed 70.7 Mha yr^?1 at the beginning of the century, mostly in the boreal and temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere. This decreased to 15.2 Mha yr^?1 in the 1960s as a consequence of fire suppression policies and the development of efficient fire fighting equipment. Since then, fires in temperate and boreal forests have decreased to 11.2 Mha yr^?1. At the same time, burned areas increased exponentially in tropical forests, reaching 54 Mha yr^?1 in the 1990s, reflecting the use of fire in deforestation for expansion of agriculture. There is some evidence for an increase in area burned in temperate and boreal forests in the closing years of the 20th century.     

蒙古高原草原火行为的时空格局与影响因子

采用GIS空间分析方法和L3JRC遥感卫星数据,研究了2000-2007年间蒙古高原草原火行为的时空分布规律,比较了中国内蒙古自治区和蒙古人民共和国草原火行为的差异,分析了植被、气候与人文因素等对草原火行为的影响.结果表明：不同植被类型间的过火率存在极显著差异（P<0.001）,为草甸草原>典型草原>荒漠草原,蒙古人民共和国草原过火率显著高于中国内蒙古自治区(P<0.001),过火频次的分布格局与过火迹地相一致.草原火行为存在明显的年际变化特征,草甸草原(r²=-0.54,P<0.05)和典型草原（r²=-0.61,P<0.05）的年过火率与年降雨量呈负相关关系;草原火集中在降水较少、风速较大的春、秋两季.中国内蒙古自治区的人口密度和载畜密度远高于蒙古人民共和国,而过火率则相反,表明人文因素,尤其是过度放牧是导致中国内蒙古自治区和蒙古人民共和国火行为差异的主要原因.     

Historic distribution and driving factors of human-caused fires in the Chinese boreal forest between 1972 and 2005

Aims The pattern and driving factors of forest fires are of interest for fire occurrence prediction and forest fire management. The aims of the study were: (i) to describe the history of human-caused fires by season and size of burned area over time; (ii) to identify the spatial patterns of human-caused fires and test for the existence of 'hotspots' to determine their exact locations in the Daxing'an Mountains; (iii) to determine the driving factors that determine the spatial distribution and the possibility of human-caused fire occurrence.Methods In this study, K -function and Kernel density estimation were used to analyze the spatial pattern of human-caused fires. The analysis was conducted in S-plus and ArcGIS environments, respectively. The analysis of driving factors was performed in SPSS 19.0 based on a logistic regression model. The variables used to identify factors that influence fire occurrence included vegetation types, meteorological conditions, socioeconomic factors, topography and infrastructure factors, which were extracted and collected through the spatial analysis mode of ArcGIS and from official statistics, respectively.Important findings The annual number of human-caused fires and the area burnt have declined since 1987 due to the implementation of a forest fire protection act. There were significant spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variations in the distribution of human-caused fires in the Daxing'an Mountains. The heterogeneity was caused by elevation, distance to the nearest railway, forest type and temperature. A logistic regression model was developed to predict the likelihood of human-caused fire occurrence in the Daxing'an Mountains; its global accuracy attained 64.8%. The model was thus comparable to other relevant studies.     

Breeding latitude leads to different temporal but not spatial organization of the annual cycle in a long‐distance migrant

The temporal and spatial organization of the annual cycle according to local conditions is of crucial importance for individuals’ fitness. Moreover, which sites and when particular sites are used can have profound consequences especially for migratory animals, because the two factors shape interactions within and between populations, as well as between animal and the environment. Here, we compare spatial and temporal patterns of two latitudinally separated breeding populations of a trans‐Equatorial passerine migrant, the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis, throughout the annual cycle. We found that migration routes and non‐breeding residency areas of the two populations largely overlapped. Due to climatic constraints, however, the onset of breeding in the northern population was approximately two weeks later than that of the southern population. We demonstrate that this temporal offset between the populations carries‐over from breeding to the entire annual cycle. The northern population was consistently later in timing of all subsequent annual events – autumn migration, non‐breeding residence period, spring migration and the following breeding. Such year‐round spatiotemporal patterns suggest that annual schedules are endogenously controlled with breeding latitude as the decisive element pre‐determining the timing of annual events in our study populations.     

How does the fire regime change after creating a protected area in the Brazilian Cerrado?

Fire is a natural factor maintaining biodiversity and several ecological processes. The Brazilian Cerrado, considered the savanna with the highest biodiversity, is characterized by climatic seasonality, vegetation mosaics and topographic variations that together with fire determine its different plant physiognomies. The Chapada das Mesas National Park (CMNP), located in the south of the state of Maranhão (Brazil), has different savanna plant physiognomies with high ecological potential and archaeological and water wealth. The aim of the present study was to reconstruct the fire history over 28 years for the park and its surroundings (20 km buffer area), endeavouring to understand the impact of the creation of this National Park on its fire regime. Landsat satellite images were used from the TM, ETM + and OLI sensors to map the fire scars, which were identified and vectorized manually. The database created was used to analyze the total annual burned area, burned area percentage, density ignition, mean burn scar area and fire frequency during the mapped period. In total, 86 % of the CMNP was burn at least once between 1990 and 2017, while 72 % of the buffer area was burn. The creation of the park had significant effects on the density ignition when the periods before (1990–2005) and after (2006–2017) its creation were compared, and showed no significant effects on total annual area burned and average burn scar area. Despite the amount of burned area over time did not change significantly between the years before and after, the main change was observed in the fire seasonality after the creation of the park. In the park, 38 % of the area had a frequency of burn areas higher than ten times in the 28-year interval while 13 % of the buffer area was burn more than 10 times. In contrast, 23 % and 15 % had a fire frequency of 2 to 4 times on the buffer and the park respectively. Although the park was created to mitigate the human impacts of fire, the geographic isolation, the current occupation of the park by local populations and the pressure from agricultural expansion in the surroundings are influencing these conservation measures. Understanding the spatial–temporal distribution of fire in protected areas of the Cerrado contributes to improving management, preservation and conservation actions, so that in future studies other factors can be included to better understand the dynamic of fire occurrence in the region of the CMNP and in other protected areas of the Cerrado.     

Responses of breeding birds in tallgrass prairie to fire and cattle grazing

ABSTRACT.   No other group of North American birds has declined as precipitously and over so large an area as has the grassland assemblage. In the Flint Hills of Kansas, the largest extant region of tallgrass prairie, annual spring burning of rangeland has largely replaced traditional regimes and natural patterns with longer intervals between burns. I examined effects of burning and low-intensity cattle grazing on abundances of seven bird species at Konza Prairie Research Natural Area in June 2002 and 2003. Every species was affected by fire, with Upland Sandpipers ( Bartramia longicauda ) more abundant, and six species—Grasshopper Sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ), Henslow's Sparrow ( A. henslowii ), Dickcissel ( Spiza americana ), Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ), Brown-headed Cowbird ( Molothrus ater ), and Bell's Vireo ( Vireo bellii )—either less abundant or absent at sites in the breeding season following a fire. These results demonstrate that annual burning limits the potential of much of the Flint Hills prairie to harbor high breeding densities of many grassland birds. On the other hand, I found a trade-off between immediate and longer-term effects of burning for several grass-dependent species. Grasshopper Sparrows, Henslow's Sparrows, and Eastern Meadowlarks, although more numerous in areas that were not burned the preceding spring, were less abundant at sites burned every 4 yrs than those burned at shorter intervals. In contrast, shrub-dependent Bell's Vireos were more abundant at sites burned every 4 yrs. Upland Sandpipers, Grasshopper Sparrows, and Eastern Meadowlarks were more abundant in grazed areas. Use of alternatives to annual burning could increase habitat heterogeneity by transforming the Flint Hills into a mosaic of regularly, but asynchronously, burned pastures that would better meet the diverse habitat needs of the region's grassland birds.     

Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation

Dynamics of fires in Africa are of critical importance for understanding changes in ecosystem properties and effects on the global carbon cycle. Given increasing fire risk from projected warming on the one hand and a documented human‐driven decline in fires on the other, it is still unknown how the complex interplay between climate and human factors affects recent changes of fires in Africa. Moreover, the impact of recent strong El Niño events on fire dynamics is not yet known. By applying an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to satellite‐derived fire burned area, we investigated the spatio‐temporal evolution of fires in Africa over 2001–2016 and identified the potential dominant drivers. Our results show an overall decline of fire rates, which is continuous over the time period and mainly caused by cropland expansion in northern sub‐Saharan Africa. However, we also find that years of high precipitation have caused an initial increase in fire rates in southern Africa, which reversed to a decline in later years. This decline is caused by a high frequency of dry years leading to very low fuel loads, suggesting that recent drought causes a general reduction of burned areas, in particular in xeric savannas. In some mesic regions (10°–15°S), solar radiation and increased temperature caused increase in fires. These findings show that climate change overrules the impact of human expansion on fire rates at the continental scale in Africa, reducing the fire risk.     

Moderate patchiness optimizes heterogeneity,stability, and beta diversity in mesic grassland

Heterogeneous disturbance patterns are fundamental to rangeland conservation and management because heterogeneity creates patchy vegetation, broadens niche availability, increases compositional dissimilarity, and enhances temporal stability of aboveground biomass production. Pyrodiversity is a popular concept for how variability in fire as an ecological disturbance can enhance heterogeneity, but mechanistic understanding of factors that drive heterogeneity is lacking. Mesic grasslands are examples of ecosystems in which pyrodiversity is linked strongly to broad ecological processes such as trophic interactions because grazers are attracted to recently burned areas, creating a unique ecological disturbance referred to as the fire–grazing interaction, or pyric herbivory. But several questions about the application of pyric herbivory remain: What proportion of a grazed landscape must burn, or how many patches are required, to create sufficient spatial heterogeneity and reduce temporal variability? How frequently should patches burn? Does season of fire matter? To bring theory into applied practice, we studied a gradient of grazed tallgrass prairie landscapes created by different sizes, seasons, and frequencies of fire, and used analyses sensitive to nonlinear trends. The greatest spatial heterogeneity and lowest temporal variability in aboveground plant biomass, and greatest plant functional group beta diversity, occurred in landscapes with three to four patches (25%–33% of area burned) and three‐ to four‐year fire return intervals. Beta diversity had a positive association with spatial heterogeneity and negative relationship with temporal variability. Rather than prescribing that these results constitute best management practices, we emphasize the flexibility offered by interactions between patch number and fire frequency for matching rangeland productivity and offtake to specific management goals. As we observed no differences across season of fire, we recommend future research focus on fire frequency within a moderate proportion of the landscape burned, and consider a wider seasonal burn window.     

Global ecosystems and fire: Multi‐model assessment of fire‐induced tree‐cover and carbon storage reduction

In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001–2012. Fire globally reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally, the effects are much stronger, up to 20% for certain latitudinal bands, and 17% in savanna regions. Global fire effects on total carbon storage and carbon turnover times are lower with the effect on gross primary productivity (GPP) close to 0. We find the strongest impacts of fire in savanna regions. Climatic conditions in regions with the highest burned area differ from regions with highest absolute fire impact, which are characterized by higher precipitation. Our estimates of fire‐induced vegetation change are lower than previous studies. We attribute these differences to different definitions of vegetation change and effects of anthropogenic land use, which were not considered in previous studies and decreases the impact of fire on tree cover. Accounting for fires significantly improves the spatial patterns of simulated tree cover, which demonstrates the need to represent fire in dynamic vegetation models. Based upon comparisons between models and observations, process understanding and representation in models, we assess a higher confidence in the fire impact on tree cover and vegetation carbon compared to GPP, total carbon storage and turnover times. We have higher confidence in the spatial patterns compared to the global totals of the simulated fire impact. As we used an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art fire models, including effects of land use and the ensemble median or mean compares better to observational datasets than any individual model, we consider the here presented results to be the current best estimate of global fire effects on ecosystems.