Computing power and sample size for case-control association studies with copy number polymorphism: application of mixture-based likelihood ratio test

Recent studies suggest that copy number polymorphisms (CNPs) may play an important role in disease susceptibility and onset. Currently, the detection of CNPs mainly depends on microarray technology. For case-control studies, conventionally, subjects are assigned to a specific CNP category based on the continuous quantitative measure produced by microarray experiments, and cases and controls are then compared using a chi-square test of independence. The purpose of this work is to specify the likelihood ratio test statistic (LRTS) for case-control sampling design based on the underlying continuous quantitative measurement, and to assess its power and relative efficiency (as compared to the chi-square test of independence on CNP counts). The sample size and power formulas of both methods are given. For the latter, the CNPs are classified using the Bayesian classification rule. The LRTS is more powerful than this chi-square test for the alternatives considered, especially alternatives in which the at-risk CNP categories have low frequencies. An example of the application of the LRTS is given for a comparison of CNP distributions in individuals of Caucasian or Taiwanese ethnicity, where the LRTS appears to be more powerful than the chi-square test, possibly due to misclassification of the most common CNP category into a less common category.     

Accuracy and power of the likelihood ratio test in detecting adaptive molecular evolution

The selective pressure at the protein level is usually measured by the nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratio (omega = dN/dS), with omega < 1, omega = 1, and omega > 1 indicating purifying (or negative) selection, neutral evolution, and diversifying (or positive) selection, respectively. The omega ratio is commonly calculated as an average over sites. As every functional protein has some amino acid sites under selective constraints, averaging rates across sites leads to low power to detect positive selection. Recently developed models of codon substitution allow the omega ratio to vary among sites and appear to be powerful in detecting positive selection in empirical data analysis. In this study, we used computer simulation to investigate the accuracy and power of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) in detecting positive selection at amino acid sites. The test compares two nested models: one that allows for sites under positive selection (with omega > 1), and another that does not, with the chi2 distribution used for significance testing. We found that use of the chi(2) distribution makes the test conservative, especially when the data contain very short and highly similar sequences. Nevertheless, the LRT is powerful. Although the power can be low with only 5 or 6 sequences in the data, it was nearly 100% in data sets of 17 sequences. Sequence length, sequence divergence, and the strength of positive selection also were found to affect the power of the LRT. The exact distribution assumed for the omega ratio over sites was found not to affect the effectiveness of the LRT.     

The likelihood ratio test for the two-component normal mixture problem: power and sample size analysis

We find, through simulation and modeling, an approximation to the alternative distribution of the likelihood ratio test for two-component mixtures in which the components have different means but equal variances. We consider the range of mixing proportions from 0.5 through .95. Our simulation results indicate a dependence of power on the mixing proportion when pi less than .2 and pi greater than .80. Our model results indicated that the alternative distribution is approximately noncentral chi-square, possibly with 2 degrees of freedom. Using this model, we estimate a sample of 40 is needed to have 50% power to detect a difference between means equal to 3.0 for mixing proportions between .2 and .8. The sample size increases to 50 when the mixing proportion is .90 (or .1) and 82 when the mixing proportion is .95 (or .05). This paper contains a complete table of sample sizes needed for 50%, 80%, and 90% power.     

A likelihood ratio test for equality of deviations from randomness

The use of the sample variance-to-mean ratio as a measure of deviation from randomness in spatial pattern is reviewed. The likelihood ratio method of constructing a statistical test for the equality of several population variance-to-mean ratios is described, and details are provided for the special case where counts are modelled as arising from a negative binomial distribution. This test is illustrated by application to example data sets in ecology. Likelihood ratio tests represent a general methodology whereby relationships among several indices of aggregation can be systematically investigated, provided one is able to specify a suitable parametric form for the underlying distributions.     

Empirical problems of the hierarchical likelihood ratio test for model selection

Advocates of maximum likelihood (ML) approaches to phylogenetics commonly cite as one of their primary advantages the use of objective statistical criteria for model selection. Currently, a particular implementation of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) is the most commonly used model-selection criterion in phylogenetics. This approach requires the choice of a starting point and a parameter addition (or removal) sequence that can affect all ML inferences (i.e., topology, model, and all evolutionary parameters). Here, several alternative starting points and parameter sequences are tested in empirical data sets to assess their influence on model selection and optimal topology. In the studied data sets, varying model-selection protocols leads to selection of different models that, in some cases, lead to different ML trees. Given the sensitivity of the LRT, some possible solutions to model selection (within the hypothesis testing approach) are outlined, and alternative model-selection criteria are discussed. Some of the suggested alternatives seem to lack these problems, although their behavior and adequacy for phylogenetics needs to be further explored.     

Maximum likelihood estimator and likelihood ratio test in complex models: An application to B lymphocyte development

In this paper we introduce a simple framework which provides a basis for estimating parameters and testing statistical hypotheses in complex models. The only assumption that is made in the model describing the process under study, is that the deviations of the observations from the model have a multivariate normal distribution. The application of the statistical techniques presented in this paper may have considerable utility in the analysis of a wide variety of complex biological and epidemiological models. To our knowledge, the model and methods described here have not previously been published in the area of theoretical immunology.     

A likelihood ratio test for species membership based on DNA sequence data

DNA barcoding as an approach for species identification is rapidly increasing in popularity. However, it remains unclear which statistical procedures should accompany the technique to provide a measure of uncertainty. Here we describe a likelihood ratio test which can be used to test if a sampled sequence is a member of an a priori specified species. We investigate the performance of the test using coalescence simulations, as well as using the real data from butterflies and frogs representing two kinds of challenge for DNA barcoding: extremely low and extremely high levels of sequence variability.     

A likelihood ratio test for completed sampling in population size estimation studies

We propose a likelihood ratio test to assess that sampling has been completed in closed population size estimation studies. More precisely, we assess if the expected number of subjects that have never been sampled is below a user-specified threshold. The likelihood ratio test statistic has a nonstandard distribution under the null hypothesis. Critical values can be easily approximated and tabulated, and they do not depend on model specification. We illustrate in a simulation study and three real data examples, one of which involves ascertainment bias of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Gulf War veterans.     

Power properties of the likelihood ratio test in an analysis of genetic diseases

A likelihood ratio test concerning a genetic parameter describing in part the nature of a genetic disease is investigated. The test has the undesirable characteristic that its power curve is not a monotonically increasing function of the true value of the parameter being tested.     

Increasing power of genome-wide association studies by collecting additional single-nucleotide polymorphisms

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been effectively identifying the genomic regions associated with a disease trait. In a typical GWAS, an informative subset of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), called tag SNPs, is genotyped in case/control individuals. Once the tag SNP statistics are computed, the genomic regions that are in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the most significantly associated tag SNPs are believed to contain the causal polymorphisms. However, such LD regions are often large and contain many additional polymorphisms. Following up all the SNPs included in these regions is costly and infeasible for biological validation. In this article we address how to characterize these regions cost effectively with the goal of providing investigators a clear direction for biological validation. We introduce a follow-up study approach for identifying all untyped associated SNPs by selecting additional SNPs, called follow-up SNPs, from the associated regions and genotyping them in the original case/control individuals. We introduce a novel SNP selection method with the goal of maximizing the number of associated SNPs among the chosen follow-up SNPs. We show how the observed statistics of the original tag SNPs and human genetic variation reference data such as the HapMap Project can be utilized to identify the follow-up SNPs. We use simulated and real association studies based on the HapMap data and the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium to demonstrate that our method shows superior performance to the correlation- and distance-based traditional follow-up SNP selection approaches. Our method is publicly available at http://genetics.cs.ucla.edu/followupSNPs.     

A generalized likelihood ratio test to identify differentially expressed genes from microarray data

MOTIVATION: Microarray technology emerges as a powerful tool in life science. One major application of microarray technology is to identify differentially expressed genes under various conditions. Currently, the statistical methods to analyze microarray data are generally unsatisfactory, mainly due to the lack of understanding of the distribution and error structure of microarray data. RESULTS: We develop a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) test based on the two-component model proposed by Rocke and Durbin to identify differentially expressed genes from microarray data. Simulation studies show that the GLR test is more powerful than commonly used methods, like the fold-change method and the two-sample t-test. When applied to microarray data, the GLR test identifies more differentially expressed genes than the t-test, has a lower false discovery rate and shows more consistency over independently repeated experiments. AVAILABILITY: The approach is implemented in software called GLR, which is freely available for downloading at http://www.cc.utah.edu/~jw27c60