Spatial variation in the ongoing and widespread decline of a keystone plant species

Extensive dieback in dominant plant species in response to climate change is increasingly common. Climatic conditions and related variables, such as evapotranspiration, vary in response to topographical complexity. This complexity plays an important role in the provision of climate refugia. In 2008/2009, an island‐wide dieback event of the keystone cushion plant Azorella macquariensis Orchard (Apiaceae) occurred on sub‐Antarctic Macquarie Island. This signalled the start of a potential regime shift, suggested to be driven by increasing vapour pressure deficit. Eight years later, we quantified cover and dieback across the range of putative microclimates to which the species is exposed, with the aim of explaining dieback patterns. We test for the influence of evapotranspiration using a suite of topographic proxies and other variables as proposed drivers of change. We found higher cover and lower dieback towards the south of the island. The high spatial variation in A. macquariensis populations was best explained by latitude, likely a proxy for macroscale climate gradients and geology. Dieback was best explained by A. macquariensis cover and latitude, increasing with cover and towards the north of the island. The effect sizes of terrain variables that influence evapotranspiration rates were small. Island‐wide dieback remains conspicuous. Comparison between a subset of sites and historical data revealed a reduction of cover in the north and central regions of the island, and a shift south in the most active areas of dieback. Dieback remained comparatively low in the south. The presence of seedlings was independent of dieback. This study provides an empirical baseline for spatial variation in the cover and condition of A. macquariensis, both key variables for monitoring condition and ‘cover‐debt’ in this critically endangered endemic plant species. These findings have broader implications for understanding the responses of fellfield ecosystems and other Azorella species across the sub‐Antarctic under future climates.     

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time‐series analysis of moderate—and high‐resolution imagery was used to characterize land‐ and water‐surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land‐surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak‐growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km²) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface‐water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high‐latitude regions.     

Biodiversity patterns diverge along geographic temperature gradients

Models applying space-for-time substitution, including those projecting ecological responses to climate change, generally assume an elevational and latitudinal equivalence that is rarely tested. However, a mismatch may lead to different capacities for providing climatic refuge to dispersing species. We compiled community data on zooplankton, ectothermic animals that form the consumer basis of most aquatic food webs, from over 1200 mountain lakes and ponds across western North America to assess biodiversity along geographic temperature gradients spanning nearly 3750 m elevation and 30° latitude. Species richness, phylogenetic relationships, and functional diversity all showed contrasting responses across gradients, with richness metrics plateauing at low elevations but exhibiting intermediate latitudinal maxima. The nonmonotonic/hump-shaped diversity trends with latitude emerged from geographic interactions, including weaker latitudinal relationships at higher elevations (i.e. in alpine lakes) linked to different underlying drivers. Here, divergent patterns of phylogenetic and functional trait dispersion indicate shifting roles of environmental filters and limiting similarity in the assembly of communities with increasing elevation and latitude. We further tested whether gradients showed common responses to warmer temperatures and found that mean annual (but not seasonal) temperatures predicted elevational richness patterns but failed to capture consistent trends with latitude, meaning that predictions of how climate change will influence diversity also differ between gradients. Contrasting responses to elevation- and latitude-driven warming suggest different limits on climatic refugia and likely greater barriers to northward range expansion.     

Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species’ geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland‐southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes.     

Topography influences the distribution of autumn frost damage on trees in a Mediterranean-type <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eucalyptus</Emphasis> forest

Key message

Extreme temperatures are causing forest dieback in a Mediterranean-type forest. Topography and cold-air pooling explain the geographic distribution of frost dieback in susceptible tree species.

Abstract

Alterations to the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, predicted with climate change, pose a threat to the health of many forests. Some Mediterranean climate regions are experiencing higher temperature variability, including more extreme low and high temperature events. Following one such low-temperature event in autumn 2012, we conducted landscape- and site-level studies to examine the impact of frost on trees and the interaction between topography, temperature, and dieback in a forest ecosystem in the Mediterranean climate region of southwest Australia. Canopy damage was widespread across the survey area and occurred in distinct patches, with sizes ranging between 4.1 and 2,518.0 ha. In affected forest, Eucalyptus marginata and Corymbia calophylla experienced nearly complete crown dieback, while E. patens and E. wandoo were undamaged. Canopy damage was found more frequently in valleys and lower to mid-slope positions, and site-level studies confirmed that crown dieback generally increased with decreasing elevation. Low temperatures were strongly correlated with elevation along damaged forest transects and cold-air pooling explained the pattern of forest damage. By regressing temperatures from damaged sites against those collected from the nearest meteorological station, projected minimum air temperatures ranged from ?0.1 to ?2.7 °C at valley bottom when the dieback occurred. Insufficient tissue hardening is suspected to have predisposed trees to this autumn frost. The interaction between shifting temperature regimes with climate change and frost damage is discussed. With continued increases in temperature variability, we can expect to see more temperature-driven disturbance events and associated reductions in forest health.

     

Height growth rate tradeoffs determine northern and southern range limits for trees

Abstract. Identifying the biological determinants of range limits of trees is an unsolved problem of critical importance for predicting the effects of climate change on forests. Data showing that many boreal trees can grow in temperate climates indicate that southern range limits do not necessarily result from excessive temperature per se. A growth tradeoff could exist between freezing tolerance and height growth rate if adaptations to tolerate cold climates interfered with growth. Analysis of height growth rate versus freezing tolerance for twenty-two North American trees provided evidence for such a tradeoff. Provenance trials of numerous tree species also showed that a tradeoff exists within species, indicating a genetic basis for these traits. The result of this tradeoff is that at their southern range margins most species do not suffer from too much heat but rather face competitors with a faster growth rate. The implication for future climate change is that forests will not suffer catastrophic dieback due to increased temperatures but will rather be replaced gradually by faster growing types, perhaps over hundreds of years.     

Time lag and negative responses of forest greenness and tree growth to warming over circumboreal forests

The terrestrial forest ecosystems in the northern high latitude region have been experiencing significant warming rates over several decades. These forests are considered crucial to the climate system and global carbon cycle and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To obtain an improved estimate of the response of vegetation activity, e.g., forest greenness and tree growth, to climate change, we investigated spatiotemporal variations in two independent data sets containing the dendroecological information for this region over the past 30 years. These indices are the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and the tree‐ring width index (RWI), both of which showed significant spatial variability in past trends and responses to climate changes. These trends and responses to climate change differed significantly in the ecosystems of the circumarctic (latitude higher than 67°N) and the circumboreal forests (latitude higher and lower than 50°N and 67°N, respectively), but the way in which they differed was relatively similar in the NDVI3g and the RWI. In the circumarctic ecosystem, the climate variables of the current summer were the main climatic drivers for the positive response to the increase in temperatures showed by both the NDVI3g and the RWI indices. On the other hand, in the circumboreal forest ecosystem, the climate variables of the previous year (from summer to winter) were also important climatic drivers for both the NDVI3g and the RWI. Importantly, both indices showed that the temperatures in the previous year negatively affected the ecosystem. Although such negative responses to warming did not necessarily lead to a past negative linear trend in the NDVI3g and the RWI over the past 30 years, future climate warming could potentially cause severe reduction in forest greenness and tree growth in the circumboreal forest ecosystem.     

Wood anatomical traits in black spruce reveal latent water constraints on the boreal forest

The effects of climate change on high‐latitude forest ecosystems are complex, making forecasts of future scenarios uncertain. The predicted lengthening of the growing season under warming conditions is expected to increase tree growth rates. However, there is evidence of an increasing sensitivity of the boreal forest to drought stress. To assess the influence of temperature and precipitation on the growth of black spruce (Picea mariana), we investigated long‐term series of wood anatomical traits on 20 trees from four sites along 600 km, the latitudinal range of the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. We correlated the anatomical traits resolved at intraring level with daily temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and precipitation during the 1943–2010 period. Tree‐ring width, number of cells per ring and cell wall thickness were positively affected by spring and summer daily mean and maximum temperature at the northern sites. These results agree with the well‐known positive effect of high temperatures on tree ring formation at high latitudes. However, we captured, for the first time in this region, the latent impact of water availability on xylem traits. Indeed, in all the four sites, cell lumen area showed positive correlations with daily precipitation (mostly at low latitude), and/or negative correlations with daily mean and maximum temperature and VPD (mostly at high latitude). We inferred that drought, due to high temperatures, low precipitations, or both, negatively affects cell enlargement across the closed boreal forest, including the northernmost sites. The production of tracheids with narrower lumen, potentially more resistant to cavitation, could increase xylem hydraulic safety under a warmer and drier climate. However, this would result in lower xylem conductivity, with consequent long‐term hydraulic deterioration, growth decline, and possibly lead to tree dieback, as observed in other forest ecosystems at lower latitudes.     

Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper—Schinus terebinthifolius)

Winter climate change is expected to lead to the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems, where tropical species expand poleward in response to a decrease in the intensity and duration of winter temperature extremes (i.e., freeze events). In the southeastern United States, freezing temperatures control the northern range limits of many invasive nonnative species. Here, we examine the influence of freezing temperatures and winter climate change on the northern range limits of an invasive nonnative tree—Schinus terebinthifolius (Brazilian pepper). Since introduction in the 1800s, Brazilian pepper has invaded ecosystems throughout south and central Florida to become the state's most widespread nonnative plant species. Although Brazilian pepper is sensitive to freezing temperatures, temperature controls on its northern distribution have not been adequately quantified. We used temperature and plant occurrence data to quantify the sensitivity of Brazilian pepper to freezing temperatures. Then, we examined the potential for range expansion under three alternative future climate scenarios (+2°C, +4°C, and +6°C). Our analyses identify a strong nonlinear sigmoidal relationship between minimum temperature and Brazilian pepper presence, with a discrete threshold temperature occurring near ?11°C. Our future scenario analyses indicate that, in response to warming winter temperatures, Brazilian pepper is expected to expand northward and transform ecosystems in north Florida and across much of the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic coasts of the United States. These results underscore the importance of early detection and rapid response efforts to identify and manage the northward invasion of Brazilian pepper in response to climate change. Looking more broadly, our work highlights the need to anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by tropical invasive species.     

Large-scale spatial patterns in the distribution of Collembola (Hexapoda) species in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems

Aim  We tested whether the distribution of three common springtail species ( Gressittacantha terranova , Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni and Friesea grisea ) in Victoria Land (Antarctica) could be modelled as a function of latitude, longitude, altitude and distance from the sea.
Location  Victoria Land, Ross Dependency, Antarctica.
Methods  Generalized linear models were constructed using species presence/absence data relative to geographical features (latitude, longitude, altitude, distance from sea) across the species' entire ranges. Model results were then integrated with the known phylogeography of each species and hypotheses were generated on the role of climate as a major driver of Antarctic springtail distribution.
Results  Based on model selection using Akaike's information criterion, the species' distributions were: hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with altitude for Gressittacantha terranova ; hump-shaped relative to latitude and monotonic with altitude for Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni ; and hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with latitude, altitude and distance from the sea for Friesea grisea .
Main conclusions  No single distributional pattern was shared by the three species. While distributions were partially a response to climatic spatial clines, the patterns observed strongly suggest that past geological events have influenced the observed distributions. Accordingly, present-day spatial patterns are likely to have arisen from the interaction of historical and environmental drivers. Future studies will need to integrate a range of spatial and temporal scales to further quantify their respective roles.     

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long‐term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The ‘Moran effect’ predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large‐scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high‐Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8–324 km apart suggested that density‐dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one ‘continental’ reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density‐dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift—with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity—led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.     

Statistical models of invertebrate distribution on Macquarie Island: a tool to assess climate change and local human impacts

Sub-Antarctic islands are good model systems in which to study the ecological effects of human impacts, particularly global climate change and alien species. Invertebrates form a central component of these ecosystems. We conducted a stratified survey of 69 sites on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island and used logistic regression models to describe the distribution of 14 abundant invertebrate species. We also developed a statistical model of windspeed based on topography. The distributions of individual species were described by different combinations of aspect, altitude and vegetation type. Ordination of sites based on species composition showed strong effects of altitude and vegetation on invertebrate assemblages. The species distribution models provide a tool for detecting, monitoring and predicting effects of climate change and alien species on biota and ecosystem processes. Accepted: 30 August 1998     

Emerging climate‐driven disturbance processes: widespread mortality associated with snow‐to‐rain transitions across 10° of latitude and half the range of a climate‐threatened conifer

Climate change is causing rapid changes to forest disturbance regimes worldwide. While the consequences of climate change for existing disturbance processes, like fires, are relatively well studied, emerging drivers of disturbance such as snow loss and subsequent mortality are much less documented. As the climate warms, a transition from winter snow to rain in high latitudes will cause significant changes in environmental conditions such as soil temperatures, historically buffered by snow cover. The Pacific coast of North America is an excellent test case, as mean winter temperatures are currently at the snow–rain threshold and have been warming for approximately 100 years post‐Little Ice Age. Increased mortality in a widespread tree species in the region has been linked to warmer winters and snow loss. Here, we present the first high‐resolution range map of this climate‐sensitive species, Callitropsis nootkatensis (yellow‐cedar), and document the magnitude and location of observed mortality across Canada and the United States. Snow cover loss related mortality spans approximately 10° latitude (half the native range of the species) and 7% of the overall species range and appears linked to this snow–rain transition across its range. Mortality is commonly >70% of basal area in affected areas, and more common where mean winter temperatures is at or above the snow–rain threshold (>0 °C mean winter temperature). Approximately 50% of areas with a currently suitable climate for the species (相似文献   

Differential response to abiotic stress controls species distributions at biogeographic transition zones

Understanding range limits is critical to predicting species responses to climate change. Subtropical environments, where many species overlap at their range margins, are cooler, more light‐limited and variable than tropical environments. It is thus likely that species respond variably to these multi‐stressor regimes and that factors other than mean climatic conditions drive biodiversity patterns. Here, we tested these hypotheses for scleractinian corals at their high‐latitude range limits in eastern Australia and investigated the role of mean climatic conditions and of parameters linked to abiotic stress in explaining the distribution and abundance of different groups of species. We found that environmental drivers varied among taxa and were predominantly linked to abiotic stress. The distribution and abundance of tropical species and gradients in species richness (alpha diversity) and turnover (beta diversity) were best explained by light limitation, whereas minimum temperatures and temperature fluctuations best explained gradients in subtropical species, species nestedness and functional diversity. Variation in community structure (considering species composition and abundance) was most closely linked to the combined thermal and light regime. Our study demonstrates the role of abiotic stress in controlling the distribution of species towards their high‐latitude range limits and suggests that, at biogeographic transition zones, robust predictions of the impacts of climate change require approaches that account for various aspects of physiological stress and for species abundances and characteristics. These findings support the hypothesis that abiotic stress controls high‐latitude range limits and caution that projections solely based on mean temperature could underestimate species’ vulnerabilities to climate change.     

Leaf morphology shift linked to climate change

Climate change is driving adaptive shifts within species, but research on plants has been focused on phenology. Leaf morphology has demonstrated links with climate and varies within species along climate gradients. We predicted that, given within-species variation along a climate gradient, a morphological shift should have occurred over time due to climate change. We tested this prediction, taking advantage of latitudinal and altitudinal variations within the Adelaide Geosyncline region, South Australia, historical herbarium specimens (n = 255) and field sampling (n = 274). Leaf width in the study taxon, Dodonaea viscosa subsp. angustissima, was negatively correlated with latitude regionally, and leaf area was negatively correlated with altitude locally. Analysis of herbarium specimens revealed a 2 mm decrease in leaf width (total range 1-9 mm) over 127 years across the region. The results are consistent with a morphological response to contemporary climate change. We conclude that leaf width is linked to maximum temperature regionally (latitude gradient) and leaf area to minimum temperature locally (altitude gradient). These data indicate a morphological shift consistent with a direct response to climate change and could inform provenance selection for restoration with further investigation of the genetic basis and adaptive significance of observed variation.     

Clinal variation in freezing tolerance among natural accessions of Arabidopsis thaliana

Low temperature represents a form of abiotic stress that varies predictably with latitude and altitude and to which organisms have evolved multiple physiological responses. Plants provide an especially useful experimental system for investigating the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of tolerance to low temperature because of their sessile lifestyle and inability to escape ambient atmospheric conditions. Here, intraspecific variation in freezing tolerance was investigated in Arabidopsis thaliana by conducting freezing tolerance assays on 71 accessions collected from across the native range of the species. Assays were performed at multiple minimum temperatures and on both cold-acclimated and non-cold-acclimated individuals. Considerable variation in freezing tolerance was observed among accessions both with and without a prior cold-acclimation treatment, suggesting that differences among accessions in cold-acclimation capacity as well as differences in intrinsic physiology contribute to variation in this phenotype. A highly significant positive relationship was observed between freezing tolerance and latitude of origin of accessions, consistent with a major role for natural selection in shaping variation in this phenotype. Clinal variation in freezing tolerance in A. thaliana coupled with considerable knowledge of the underlying genetics and physiology of this phenotype should allow evolutionary genetic analysis at multiple levels.     

Altitude effects on spatial components of vascular plant diversity in a subarctic mountain tundra

Environmental gradients are caused by gradual changes in abiotic factors, which affect species abundances and distributions, and are important for the spatial distribution of biodiversity. One prominent environmental gradient is the altitude gradient. Understanding ecological processes associated with altitude gradients may help us to understand the possible effects climate change could have on species communities. We quantified vegetation cover, species richness, species evenness, beta diversity, and spatial patterns of community structure of vascular plants along altitude gradients in a subarctic mountain tundra in northern Sweden. Vascular plant cover and plant species richness showed unimodal relationships with altitude. However, species evenness did not change with altitude, suggesting that no individual species became dominant when species richness declined. Beta diversity also showed a unimodal relationship with altitude, but only for an intermediate spatial scale of 1 km. A lack of relationships with altitude for either patch or landscape scales suggests that any altitude effects on plant spatial heterogeneity occurred on scales larger than individual patches but were not effective across the whole landscape. We observed both nested and modular patterns of community structures, but only the modular patterns corresponded with altitude. Our observations point to biotic regulations of plant communities at high altitudes, but we found both scale dependencies and inconsistent magnitude of the effects of altitude on different diversity components. We urge for further studies evaluating how different factors influence plant communities in high altitude and high latitude environments, as well as studies identifying scale and context dependencies in any such influences.     

Treeline form – a potential key to understanding treeline dynamics

Aim Treelines occur globally within a narrow range of mean growing season temperatures, suggesting that low‐temperature growth limitation determines the position of the treeline. However, treelines also exhibit features that indicate that other mechanisms, such as biomass loss not resulting in mortality (dieback) and mortality, determine treeline position and dynamics. Debate regarding the mechanisms controlling treeline position and dynamics may be resolved by identifying the mechanisms controlling prominent treeline spatial patterns (or ‘form’) such as the spatial structure of the transition from closed forest to the tree limit. Recent treeline studies world‐wide have confirmed a close link between form and dynamics. Location The concepts presented refer to alpine treelines globally. Methods In this review, we describe how varying dominance of three general ‘first‐level’ mechanisms (tree performance: growth limitation, seedling mortality and dieback) result in different treeline forms, what ‘second‐level’ mechanisms (stresses, e.g. freezing damage, photoinhibition) may underlie these general mechanisms, and how they are modulated by interactions with neighbours (‘third‐level’ mechanisms). This hierarchy of mechanisms should facilitate discussions about treeline formation and dynamics. Results We distinguish four primary treeline forms: diffuse, abrupt, island and krummholz. Growth limitation is dominant only at the diffuse treeline, which is the form that has most frequently responded as expected to growing‐season warming, whereas the other forms are controlled by dieback and seedling mortality and are relatively unresponsive. Main conclusions Treeline form provides a means for explaining the current variability in treeline position and dynamics and for exploring the general mechanisms controlling the responses of treelines to climatic change. Form indicates the relative dependence of tree performance on various aspects of the external climate (especially summer warmth versus winter stressors) and on internal feedbacks, thus allowing inferences on the type as well as strength of climate‐change responses.     

Investigation of ecological factors controlling quality of flue-cured tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) using classification methods

The growth and quality of tobacco are associated with ecological conditions, such as soil, climate or weather, and geographical attributes. Tobacco, especially flue-cured tobacco, is an important cash crop and widely cultivated in southwestern China. However, knowledge about critical ecological indicators affecting quality of flue-cured tobacco is limited in this region. In the current study, two well-known clustering algorithms, i.e., k-means and classification and regression trees (CART), were applied to investigate the critical ecological indicators controlling quality of flue-cured tobacco. On the basis of six quality indices and Davis–Bouldin index, a total of 142 flue-cured tobacco leaf samples were classified into three groups with low, medium, and high quality using k-means algorithm. The results obtained by CART model showed that geographical attributes (altitude, latitude, and longitude) and weather indicators had high effects on the quality of flue-cured tobacco followed by soil properties and varieties. Flue-cured tobacco plants with high quality preferred to be grown in areas with low values of altitude, rainfall and relative humidity, high values of latitude, longitude, sunshine hours, and temperature-related indices (mean, maximum and minimum temperatures and their difference), and low concentrations of soil nutrients in this study area. Nevertheless, further study should be conducted to understand the interaction among the ecological variables.     

Temperature variation across Marion Island associated with a keystone plant species (Azorella selago Hook. (Apiaceae))

Microclimate is the most appropriate measure of climate affecting species. Understanding microclimate variation is essential for predicting effects of climate change on species. This study examined (1) variation in microclimate temperatures associated with Azorella selago Hook. (Apiaceae) across Marion Island, (2) differences between microclimate temperature and meteorological station temperatures, and (3) effect of A. selago on microclimate temperatures. Microclimate temperatures were shown to vary significantly with altitude and island side. The microclimate associated with A. selago was also more extreme than meteorological station temperature ranges suggest. A. selago was shown to ameliorate temperature conditions compared to those on the ground. Given the biotic differences that have been documented between the sides of Marion Island, this finding argues strongly for improved understanding of spatial variability in Marion Island’s climate. Such understanding is particularly critical given the rapid rate of climate change currently being experienced by the island.