Does GARP really fail miserably? A response to Stockman et al. (2006)

Stockman et al. (2006 ) found that ecological niche models built using DesktopGARP ‘failed miserably’ to predict trapdoor spider (genus Promyrmekiaphila) distributions in California. This apparent failure of GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐Set Production) was actually a failure of the authors’ methods, that is, attempting to build ecological niche models using single data points. In this paper, we present a re‐analysis of their original data using standard methods with the data appropriately partitioned into training/testing subsets. This re‐evaluation generated accurate distributional predictions that we contrast with theirs. We address the consequences of model‐building using single data points and the need for a foundational understanding of the principles of ecological niche modelling.     

Endemism, diversity, and the threat of tropical moist forest extinctions

Extinction rates have risen to perhaps 10⁴ the background rate. Much of this increase is due to projected influences of habitat loss on regions of the world with tropical moist forest. This ecosystem, home to a disproportionate amount of global biodiversity and a major regulator of regional and global climate, also faces disproportionately severe threats. In this study, we collect diversity and endemism data for tropical forested countries of the world, along with areal and socioeconomic data. While a correlation between overall numbers of species and endemic species per country is expected, we demonstrate that endemism patterns among birds and mammals remain very strongly convergent even after statistically rendering all countries equal in size and overall species richness and after adjusting for spatial autocorrelation. On a per country basis, mammals are generally more threatened than birds in these tropical moist forested countries. Human population growth rates and rising debt among these nations should be viewed as priorities for amelioration by the developed countries. Reserve network extent is not related to numbers of endemic mammals or birds at this large spatial scale.     

Geographic distribution of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Central-West Brazil

This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani, Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpis were the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies.     

Saxifraga rivularis L. on Beinn Eighe

Summary

A new locality for Saxifraga rivularis is described from Beinn Eighe, Wester Ross. Species lists from the site and from two nearby sites are compared in relation to soil analyses.     

紫茎泽兰Eupatorium adenophorum Spreng.在中国入侵分布预测

原产于墨西哥的紫茎泽兰Eupatorium adenophorum Spreng.作为一个有害的外来物种在印度、新西兰和澳大利亚生长已有很长时间。在中国,尤其是在南方和西南地区其蔓延速度之快,带来了不可忽视的经济和社会后果。我们采用了生态位模拟新方法来预测紫茎泽兰可能入侵的范围。据此,预测的潜在分布区包括该植物在中国境内已分布的省份及未来华中、华东易受入侵的区域。     

Ecological niche modelling as an exploratory tool for identifying species limits: an example based on Mexican muroid rodents

Niche conservatism theory suggests that recently diverged sister species share the same ecological niche. However, if the ecological niche evolves as part of the speciation process, the ecological pattern could be useful for recognizing cryptic species. In a broad sense systematists agree that the niche characters could be used for species differentiation. However, to date such characters have been ignored. We used the genetic algorithm for rule‐set production for modelling the ecological niche as a means of inferring ecological divergence in allopatric populations of muroid rodents for which taxonomic identity is uncertain. Our results show that niche differentiation is significant in most of the identified phylogroups. The differentiation is likely associated with natural evolutionary units, which can be identified by applying species concepts based on phylogenetic and ecological patterns (e.g. phylogenetic, cohesive, evolutionary). Even so, the role of the niche partition within phylogenetic reconstruction may be a limited one.     

Predicting the distribution of non‐vagile taxa: a response to McNyset and Blackburn (2006) and re‐evaluation of Stockman et al. (2006)

This paper addresses the issues raised by McNyset and Blackburn (2006 ) in their response to Stockman et al. (2006 ). Re‐evaluation of our published GARP analyses by McNyset and Blackburn showed that a much improved ecological niche model is obtained for predicting the distribution of the trapdoor spider genus Promyrmekiaphila in central/northern California. The improved niche model results in a substantially reduced omission error rate and a predictive model comparable to models obtained using other methods (GLM and BIOCLIM). However, the improved GARP models have a high commission error rate (> 0.75); consequently, the inferences regarding difficulties in modelling non‐vagile taxa drawn by Stockman et al. remain valid. Finally, we discuss other relatively minor criticisms of our study raised by McNyset and Blackburn and issues related to the peer review of our original paper.     

Using ecological niche modelling to evaluate niche stability in deep time

Aim To investigate relative niche stability in species responses to various types of environmental pressure (biotic and abiotic) on geological time‐scales using the fossil record. Location The case study focuses on Late Ordovician articulate brachiopods of the Cincinnati Arch in eastern North America. Methods Species niches were modelled for a suite of fossil brachiopod species based on five environmental variables inferred from sedimentary parameters using GARP and Maxent . Niche stability was assessed by comparison of (1) the degree of overlap of species distribution models developed for a time‐slice and those generated by projecting niche models of the previous time‐slice onto environmental layers of a second time‐slice using GARP and Maxent , (2) Schoener’s D statistic, and (3) the similarity of the contribution of each environmental parameter within Maxent niche models between adjacent time‐slices. Results Late Ordovician brachiopod species conserved their niches with high fidelity during intervals of gradual environmental change but responded to inter‐basinal species invasions through niche evolution. Both native and invasive species exhibited similar levels of niche evolution in the invasion and post‐invasion intervals. Niche evolution was related mostly to decreased variance within the former ecological niche parameters rather than to shifts to new ecospace. Main conclusions Although the species examined exhibited morphological stasis during the study interval, high levels of niche conservatism were observed only during intervals of gradual environmental change. Rapid environmental change, notably inter‐basinal species invasions, resulted in high levels of niche evolution among the focal taxa. Both native and invasive species responded with similar levels of niche evolution during the invasion interval and subsequent environmental reorganization. The assumption of complete niche conservatism frequently employed in ecological niche modelling (ENM) analyses to forecast or hindcast species geographical distributions is more likely to be accurate for climate change studies than for invasive species analyses over geological time‐scales.