Sagittal Abdominal Diameter Is an Independent Predictor of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Backgrounds and Aims

Visceral fat has a crucial role in the development and progression of cardiovascular disease, the major cause of death in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Although sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), as an index of visceral fat, significantly correlated with mortality in the general population, the impact of SAD on clinical outcomes has never been explored in ESRD patients. Therefore, we sought to elucidate the prognostic value of SAD in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients.

Methods

We prospectively determined SAD by lateral abdominal X-ray at PD initiation, and evaluated the association of SAD with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in 418 incident PD patients.

Results

The mean SAD was 24.5±4.3 cm, and during a mean follow-up of 39.4 months, 97 patients (23.2%) died, and 49.4% of them died due to cardiovascular disease. SAD was a significant independent predictor of all-cause [3rd versus 1st tertile, HR (hazard ratio): 3.333, 95% CI (confidence interval): 1.514–7.388, P = 0.01; per 1 cm increase, HR: 1.071, 95% CI: 1.005–1.141, P = 0.03] and cardiovascular mortality (3rd versus 1st tertile, HR: 8.021, 95% CI: 1.994–32.273, P = 0.01; per 1 cm increase, HR: 1.106, 95% CI: 1.007–1.214, P = 0.03). Multivariate fractional polynomial analysis also showed that all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk increased steadily with higher SAD values. In addition, SAD provided higher predictive value for all-cause (AUC: 0.691 vs. 0.547, P<0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (AUC: 0.644 vs. 0.483, P<0.001) than body mass index (BMI). Subgroup analysis revealed higher SAD (≥24.2 cm) was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in men, women, younger patients (<65 years), and patients with lower BMI (<22.3 kg/m²).

Conclusions

SAD determined by lateral abdominal X-ray at PD initiation was a significant independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in incident PD patients. Estimating visceral fat by SAD could be useful to stratify mortality risk in these patients.     

Hypomagnesemia Is Associated with Increased Mortality among Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Objective

Hypomagnesemia has been associated with an increase in mortality among the general population as well as patients with chronic kidney disease or those on hemodialysis. However, this association has not been thoroughly studied in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between serum magnesium concentrations and all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities in peritoneal dialysis patients.

Methods

This single-center retrospective study included 253 incident peritoneal dialysis patients enrolled between July 1, 2005 and December 31, 2014 and followed to June 30, 2015. Patient’s demographic characteristics as well as clinical and laboratory measurements were collected.

Results

Of 253 patients evaluated, 36 patients (14.2%) suffered from hypomagnesemia. During a median follow-up of 29 months (range: 4–120 months), 60 patients (23.7%) died, and 35 (58.3%) of these deaths were attributed to cardiovascular causes. Low serum magnesium was positively associated with peritoneal dialysis duration (r = 0.303, p < 0.001) as well as serum concentrations of albumin (r = 0.220, p < 0.001), triglycerides (r = 0.160, p = 0.011), potassium (r = 0.156, p = 0.013), calcium(r = 0.299, p < 0.001)and phosphate (r = 0.191, p = 0.002). Patients in the hypomagnesemia group had a lower survival rate than those in the normal magnesium groups (p < 0.001). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, serum magnesium was an independent negative predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.075, p = 0.011) and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.003, p < 0.001), especially in female patients. However, in univariate and multivariate Cox analysis, △Mg(difference between 1-year magnesium and baseline magnesium) was not an independent predictor of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality.

Conclusion

Hypomagnesemia was common among peritoneal dialysis patients and was independently associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality.     

Pneumonia and Mortality Risk in Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis Patients with Diabetic Nephropathy

Background

Although clinical experience suggests that patients with diabetes mellitus are more susceptible to several types of infections, the overall scope of pneumonia in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients with diabetic nephropathy (DN) has received little attention.

Methods

This was a prospective observational cohort study in CAPD patients in which prognostic risks of pneumonia were evaluated in DN and non-DN patients by Cox regression analysis. Hazard ratios of pneumonia events, all-cause and pneumonia-related mortality were calculated by Kaplan-Meier curves and the Cox proportional hazards model for DN versus non-DN patients.

Results

A total of 1148 patients (58.6% male, 48.34±15.78 years) had a median follow-up of 23.8 months and a maximum follow-up of 72.0 months. The pneumonia incidence rate of 62.3/1,000 patient-years in CAPD patients with DN was significantly higher than that of 28.5/1,000 patient-years in non-DN patients. On multivariate analysis, independent predictors of pneumonia occurrence in CAPD patients with DN were high body mass index (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.31; P = 0.037) and low serum albumin level (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.78–0.98; P = 0.014). Older age (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.35–1.96; P<0.001) was an independent risk factor for the presence of pneumonia in non-DN patients. CAPD patients with DN had higher pneumonia-related mortality (HR, 4.424; 95% CI, 1.871–10.461; P<0.001) and all-cause mortality (HR, 2.608; 95% CI, 1.890–3.599; P<0.001) hazards than their non-DN counterparts, even when extensive demographics, comorbidities, and lab adjustments were made.

Conclusions

The pneumonia and all-cause mortality risks were strikingly higher in CAPD patients with DN than in non-DN counterparts, which may warrant further investigation and therapeutic care intensification.     

Progression of Aortic Arch Calcification Over 1 Year Is an Independent Predictor of Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Backgrounds and Aims

The presence and progression of vascular calcification have been demonstrated as important risk factors for mortality in dialysis patients. However, since the majority of subjects included in most previous studies were hemodialysis patients, limited information was available in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of aortic arch calcification (AoAC) and prognostic value of AoAC progression in PD patients.

Methods

We prospectively determined AoAC by chest X-ray at PD start and after 12 months, and evaluated the impact of AoAC progression on mortality in 415 incident PD patients.

Results

Of 415 patients, 169 patients (40.7%) had AoAC at baseline with a mean of 18.1±11.2%. The presence of baseline AoAC was an independent predictor of all-cause [Hazard ratio (HR): 2.181, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.336–3.561, P = 0.002] and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 3.582, 95% CI: 1.577–8.132, P = 0.002). Among 363 patients with follow-up chest X-rays at 12 months after PD start, the proportion of patients with AoAC progression was significantly higher in patients with baseline AoAC (64.2 vs. 5.3%, P<0.001). Moreover, all-cause and cardiovascular death rates were significantly higher in the progression groups than in the non-progression group (P<0.001). Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that AoAC progression was an independent predictor for all-cause (HR: 2.625, 95% CI: 1.150–5.991, P = 0.022) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 4.008, 95% CI: 1.079–14.890, P = 0.038) in patients with AoAC at baseline.

Conclusions

The presence and progression of AoAC assessed by chest X-ray were independently associated with unfavorable outcomes in incident PD patients. Regular follow-up by chest X-ray could be a simple and useful method to stratify mortality risk in these patients.     

The Relation between Serum Phosphorus Levels and Clinical Outcomes after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background

Elevated serum phosphorus levels have been linked with cardiovascular disease and mortality with conflicting results, especially in the presence of normal renal function.

Methods

We studied the association between serum phosphorus levels and clinical outcomes in 1663 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Patients were categorized into 4 groups based on serum phosphorus levels (<2.50, 2.51–3.5, 3.51–4.50 and >4.50 mg/dL). Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine the association between serum phosphorus and clinical outcomes after adjustment for potential confounders.

Results

The mean follow up was 45 months. The lowest mortality occurred in patients with serum phosphorus between 2.5–3.5 mg/dL, with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.24 (95% CI 0.85–1.80), 1.35 (95% CI 1.05–1.74), and 1.75 (95% CI 1.27–2.40) in patients with serum phosphorus of <2.50, 3.51–4.50 and >4.50 mg/dL, respectively. Higher phosphorus levels were also associated with increased risk of heart failure, but not the risk of myocardial infarction or stroke. The effect of elevated phosphorus was more pronounced in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The hazard ratio for mortality in patients with serum phosphorus >4.5 mg/dL compared to patients with serum phosphorus 2.50–3.50 mg/dL was 2.34 (95% CI 1.55–3.54) with CKD and 1.53 (95% CI 0.87–2.69) without CKD.

Conclusion

We found a graded, independent association between serum phosphorus and all-cause mortality and heart failure in patients after AMI. The risk for mortality appears to increase with serum phosphorus levels within the normal range and is more prominent in the presence of CKD.     

Association of Body Mass Index with All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the Elderly

Objectives

To evaluate the associations of body mass index (BMI) with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and expanded CVD mortality in the elderly.

Design

Observational cohort study.

Setting

Annual physical examination program for the elderly from 2006 to 2010.

Participants

We included 77,541 Taipei residents aged ≥65 years (39,365 men and 38,176 women).

Measurements

BMI was categorized as underweight (BMI<18.5), normal weight (18.5≤BMI<25), overweight (25≤BMI<30), grade 1 obesity (30≤BMI<35), or grade 2–3 obesity (BMI≥35). Mortality was ascertained by national death files.

Results

Underweight (hazard ratios [HRs] of all-cause, CVD, and expanded CVD mortality: 1.92, 1.74, and 1.77, respectively), grade 2–3 obesity (HRs: 1.59, 2.36, and 2.22, respectively), older age, male sex, smoking, and high fasting blood sugar were significant predictors of mortality. Meanwhile, being married/cohabitating, higher education, alcohol consumption, more regular exercise, and high total cholesterol were inversely associated with mortality. Multivariate stratified subgroup analyses verified smokers (HRs of all-cause, CVD, and expanded CVD mortality: 3.25, 10.71, and 7.86, respectively, for grade 2–3 obesity), the high triglyceride group (HRs: 5.82, 10.99, and 14.22, respectively for underweight), and patients with 3–4 factors related to metabolic syndrome (HRs: 4.86, 12.72, and 11.42, respectively, for underweight) were associated with mortality.

Conclusion

The associations of BMI with all-cause, CVD, expanded CVD mortality in the elderly are represented by U-shaped curves, suggesting unilateral promotions or interventions in weight reduction in the elderly may be inappropriate. Heterogeneous effects of grades 1 and 2–3 obesity on mortality were observed and should be treated as different levels of obesity.     

Association of Left Ventricular Mass with All-Cause Mortality,Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

Background

Our aim was to assess the association of left ventricular mass with mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular events.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Left ventricular mass was measured by echocardiography in 40138 adult patients (mean age 61.1±16.4 years, 52.5% male). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints included nonfatal myocardial infarction and nonfatal stroke. During a mean follow-up period of 5.6±3.9 years, 9181 patients died, 901 patients had a nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 2139 patients had a nonfatal stroke. Cumulative 10-year mortality was 26.8%, 31.9%, 37.4% and 46.4% in patients with normal, mildly, moderately and severely increased left ventricular mass, respectively (p<0.001). Ten-year rates of nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke ranged from 3.2% and 6.7% in patients with normal left ventricular mass to 5.3% and 12.7% in those with severe increase in left ventricular mass, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, left ventricular mass remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per 100 g increase 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–1–27, p<0.001 in women, and HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04–1–13, p<0.001 in men), myocardial infarction (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.31–1.94, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.29, p = 0.019 in men) and stroke (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.13–1.40, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09–1.30, p<0.001 in men).

Conclusions/Significance

Left ventricular mass has a graded and independent association with all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke.     

Iron Supplementation and Mortality in Incident Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study

Background

Studies on the association between iron supplementation and mortality in dialysis patients are rare and conflicting.

Methods

In our observational single-center cohort study (INVOR study) we prospectively studied 235 incident dialysis patients. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models using all measured laboratory values for up to 7.6 years were applied to study the association between iron supplementation and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular and sepsis-related mortality. Furthermore, the time-dependent association of ferritin levels with mortality in patients with normal C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (<0.5 mg/dL) and elevated CRP levels (≧0.5 mg/dL) was evaluated by using non-linear P-splines to allow flexible modeling of the association.

Results

One hundred and ninety-one (81.3%) patients received intravenous iron, 13 (5.5%) patients oral iron, whereas 31 (13.2%) patients were never supplemented with iron throughout the observation period. Eighty-two (35%) patients died during a median follow-up of 34 months, 38 patients due to cardiovascular events and 21 patients from sepsis. Baseline CRP levels were not different between patients with and without iron supplementation. However, baseline serum ferritin levels were lower in patients receiving iron during follow up (median 93 vs 251 ng/mL, p<0.001). Iron supplementation was associated with a significantly reduced all-cause mortality [HR (95%CI): 0.22 (0.08–0.58); p = 0.002] and a reduced cardiovascular and sepsis-related mortality [HR (95%CI): 0.31 (0.09–1.04); p = 0.06]. Increasing ferritin concentrations in patients with normal CRP were associated with a decreasing mortality, whereas in patients with elevated CRP values ferritin levels>800 ng/mL were linked with increased mortality.

Conclusions

Iron supplementation is associated with reduced all-cause mortality in incident dialysis patients. While serum ferritin levels up to 800 ng/mL appear to be safe, higher ferritin levels are associated with increased mortality in the setting of concomitant inflammation.     

Duration of Thyroid Dysfunction Correlates with All-Cause Mortality. The OPENTHYRO Register Cohort

Introduction and Aim

The association between thyroid dysfunction and mortality is controversial. Moreover, the impact of duration of thyroid dysfunction is unclarified. Our aim was to investigate the correlation between biochemically assessed thyroid function as well as dysfunction duration and mortality.

Methods

Register-based follow-up study of 239,768 individuals with a serum TSH measurement from hospitals and/or general practice in Funen, Denmark. Measurements were performed at a single laboratory from January 1st 1995 to January 1st 2011. Cox regression was used for mortality analyses and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was used as comorbidity score.

Results

Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for mortality with decreased (<0.3 mIU/L) or elevated (>4.0 mIU/L) levels of TSH were 2.22; 2.14–2.30; P<0.0001 and 1.28; 1.22–1.35; P<0.0001, respectively. Adjusting for age, gender, CCI and diagnostic setting attenuated the risk estimates (HR 1.23; 95% CI: 1.19–1.28; P<0.0001, mean follow-up time 7.7 years, and HR 1.07; 95% CI: 1.02–1.13; P = 0.004, mean follow-up time 7.2 years) for decreased and elevated values of TSH, respectively. Mortality risk increased by a factor 1.09; 95% CI: 1.08–1.10; P<0.0001 or by a factor 1.03; 95% CI: 1.02–1.04; P<0.0001 for each six months a patient suffered from decreased or elevated TSH, respectively. Subdividing according to degree of thyroid dysfunction, overt hyperthyroidism (HR_overt 1.12; 95% CI: 1.06–1.19; P<0.0001), subclinical hyperthyroidism (HR_subclinical 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02–1.17; P = 0.02) and overt hypothyroidism (HR_overt 1.57; 95% CI: 1.34–1.83; P<0.0001), but not subclinical hypothyroidism (HR_subclinical 1.03; 95% CI: 0.97–1.09; P = 0.4) were associated with increased mortality.

Conclusions and Relevance

In a large-scale, population-based cohort with long-term follow-up (median 7.4 years), overt and subclinical hyperthyroidism and overt but not subclinical hypothyroidism were associated with increased mortality. Excess mortality with increasing duration of decreased or elevated serum TSH suggests the importance of timely intervention in individuals with thyroid dysfunction.     

Serum Levels of Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality among Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

Background

Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) is an important chemokine at multiple phases of atherosclerosis in animals, but human studies are few and inconsistent. The aim of this study is to investigate the association of serum MCP-1with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among coronary artery disease (CAD) patients and determine whether this biomarker can add secondary prognostic value to standard risk predictors.

Methods

MCP-1 was measured at baseline in 1411 CAD patients who were 40–85 years of age. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association of MCP-1 levels with death risk.

Results

During a median follow-up of 3.3 years, 117 deaths were recorded, 88 of which were due to CVD. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios across tertiles of MCP-1 were 1.51 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.89–2.58), 1.00, and 2.11 (95% CI 1.31–3.40) for all-cause mortality, and 1.50 (95% CI 0.80–2.81), 1.00, and 2.21 (95% CI 1.27–3.87) for CVD mortality. The addition of serum MCP-1 to the fully adjusted model increased the C-index by 0.009 (p<0.0001) for all-cause mortality and 0.008 (p<0.0001) for CVD mortality and significantly improved the predictive ability by 12.1% (P = 0.006) on all-cause mortality and 12.6% (P = 0.003) on CVD mortality using the net reclassification improvement method.

Conclusions

Both lower and higher MCP-1 levels are associated with an increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality among CAD patients. More research is needed to confirm its clinical relevance.     

Mortality among Methadone Maintenance Clients in China: A Six-Year Cohort Study

Objective

To assess the overall mortality of methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) clients in China and its associated factors.

Methods

A total of 1,511 MMT clients, all of whom enrolled in China''s first eight MMT clinics between March and December 2004, were included in this cohort study and followed for approximately six years, until June 2010. Mortality and its predictors were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression models.

Results

A total of 154 deaths were observed within 5,391 person-years (PY) of follow-up for an all-cause mortality rate of 28.6 per 1,000 PY. The leading causes of death were drug overdose (33.8%), HIV/AIDS-unrelated disease (21.4%), and HIV/AIDS (16.9%). The all-cause mortality rate of clients engaged in MMT for one year or less was roughly three times that of clients who stayed in MMT for four years or more (14.0 vs. 4.6, p<0.0001), HIV-positive subjects was nearly four times mortality rate than that of HIV-negative individuals (28.1 vs.6.8, p<0.0001). ART-naive HIV-positive subjects had approximately two times higher mortality rate than those receiving ART (31.2 vs. 17.3, <0.0001). After adjusting for confounding variables, we found that being male (HR = 1.63, CI: 1.03–2.57, p = 0.0355) and being HIV-positive (HR = 5.16, CI: 3.70–7.10, p<0.0001) were both associated with higher risk of death whereas increased durations of methadone treatment were associated with a lower risk of death (HR = 0.26, CI: 0.18–0.38, p<0.0001 for two to three years, HR = 0.08, CI: 0.05–0.14, p<0.0001 for four or more years).

Conclusion

Overall mortality was high among MMT clients in China. Specific interventions aimed at decreasing mortality among MMT clients are needed. Our study supports the need for keeping client at MMT longer and for expanding ART coverage and suggests the potential benefits of integrated MMT and ART services for drug users in China.     

The Association between Body Mass Index and Mortality in Incident Dialysis Patients

Objectives

To study the body mass index (BMI) trajectory in patients with incident end-stage kidney disease and its association with all-cause mortality.

Methods

This longitudinal cohort study included 17022 adult patients commencing hemodialysis [HD] (n = 10860) or peritoneal dialysis [PD] (n = 6162) between 2001 and 2008 and had ≥6-month follow-up and ≥2 weight measurements, using the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry data. The association of time-varying BMI with all-cause mortality was explored using multivariate Cox regression models.

Results

The median follow-up was 2.3 years. There was a non-linear change in the mean BMI (kg/m²) over time, with an initial decrease from 27.6 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27.5, 27.7) to 26.7 (95% CI: 26.6, 26.9) at 3-month, followed by increments to 27.1 (95% CI: 27, 27.2) at 1-year and 27.2 (95% CI: 26.8, 27.1) at 3-year, and a gradual decrease subsequently. The BMI trajectory was significantly lower in HD patients who died than those who survived, although this pattern was not observed in PD patients. Compared to the reference time-varying BMI category of 25.1–28 kg/m², the mortality risks of both HD and PD patients were greater in all categories of time-varying BMI <25 kg/m². The mortality risks were significantly lower in all categories of time-varying BMI >28.1 kg/m² among HD patients, but only in the category 28.1–31 kg/m² among PD patients.

Conclusions

BMI changed over time in a non-linear fashion in incident dialysis patients. Time-varying measures of BMI were significantly associated with mortality risk in both HD and PD patients.     

Hyponatremia as a Predictor of Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

Background and Aim

Hyponatremia is common in patients with chronic kidney disease and is associated with increased mortality in hemodialysis patients. However, few studies have addressed this issue in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients.

Methods

This prospective observational study included a total of 441 incident patients who started PD between January 2000 and December 2005. Using time-averaged serum sodium (TA-Na) levels, we aimed to investigate whether hyponatremia can predict mortality in these patients.

Results

Among the baseline parameters, serum sodium level was positively associated with serum albumin (β = 0.145; p = 0.003) and residual renal function (RRF) (β = 0.130; p = 0.018) and inversely associated with PD ultrafiltration (β = −0.114; p = 0.024) in a multivariable linear regression analysis. During a median follow-up of 34.8 months, 149 deaths were recorded. All-cause death occurred in 81 (55.9%) patients in the lowest tertile compared to 37 (25.0%) and 31 (20.9%) patients in the middle and highest tertiles, respectively. After adjusting for multiple potentially confounding covariates, increased TA-Na level was associated with a significantly decreased risk of all-cause (HR per 1 mEq/L increase, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.73–0.86; p<0.001) and infection-related (HR per 1 mEq/L increase, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.70–0.85; p<0.001) deaths.

Conclusions

This study showed that hyponatremia is an independent predictor of mortality in PD patients. Nevertheless, whether correcting hyponatremia improves patient survival is unknown. Future interventional studies should address this question more appropriately.     

The Incidence and Relative Risk of Stroke among Patients with Bipolar Disorder: A Seven-Year Follow-Up Study

Objective

This study aimed to estimate the incidence and relative risk of stroke and post-stroke all-cause mortality among patients with bipolar disorder.

Methods

This study identified a study population from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) between 1999 and 2003 that included 16,821 patients with bipolar disorder and 67,284 age- and sex-matched control participants without bipolar disorder. The participants who had experienced a stroke between 1999 and 2003 were excluded and were randomly selected from the NHIRD. The incidence of stroke (ICD-9-CM code 430–438) and patient survival after stroke were calculated for both groups using data from the NIHRD between 2004 and 2010. A Cox proportional-hazards model was used to compare the seven-year stroke-free survival rate and all-cause mortality rate across the two cohorts after adjusting for confounding risk factors.

Results

A total of 472 (2.81%) patients with bipolar disorder and 1,443 (2.14%) controls had strokes over seven years. Patients with bipolar disorder were 1.24 times more likely to have a stroke (95% CI = 1.12–1.38; p<0.0001) after adjusting for demographic characteristics and comorbid medical conditions. In addition, 513 (26.8%) patients who had a stroke died during the follow-up period. The all-cause mortality hazard ratio for patients with bipolar disorder was 1.28 (95% CI = 1.06–1.55; p = 0.012) after adjusting for patient, physician and hospital variables.

Conclusions

The likelihood of developing a stroke was greater among patients with bipolar disorder than controls, and the all-cause mortality rate was higher among patients with bipolar disorder than controls during a seven-year follow-up period.     

The Synergistic Effect of Functional Status and Comorbidity Burden on Mortality: A 16-Year Survival Analysis

Objectives

The relationship between disability and comorbidity on mortality is widely perceived as additive in clinical models of frailty.

Design

National data were retrospectively extracted from medical records of community hospital.

Data Sources

There were of 12,804 acutely-disabled patients admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in Singapore rehabilitation community hospitals from 1996 through 2005 were followed up for death till 31 December 2011.

Outcome Measure

Cox proportional-hazards regression to assess the interaction of comorbidity and disability at discharge on all-cause mortality.

Results

During a median follow-up of 10.9 years, there were 8,565 deaths (66.9%). The mean age was 73.0 (standard deviation: 11.5) years. Independent risk factors of mortality were higher comorbidity (p<0.001), severity of disability at discharge (p<0.001), being widowed (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.25–1.53), low socioeconomic status (aHR:1.40, 95%CI:1.29–1.53), discharge to nursing home (aHR:1.14, 95%CI:1.05–1.22) and re-admission into acute care (aHR:1.54, 95%CI:1.45–1.65). In the main effects model, those with high comorbidity had an aHR = 2.41 (95%CI:2.13–2.72) whereas those with total disability had an aHR = 2.28 (95%CI:2.12–2.46). In the interaction model, synergistic interaction existed between comorbidity and disability (p<0.001) where those with high comorbidity and total disability had much higher aHR = 6.57 (95%CI:5.15–8.37).

Conclusions

Patients with greater comorbidity and disability at discharge, discharge to nursing home or re-admission into acute care, lower socioeconomic status and being widowed had higher mortality risk. Our results identified predictive variables of mortality that map well onto the frailty cascade model. Increasing comorbidity and disability interacted synergistically to increase mortality risk.     

Red Blood Cell Distribution Width and Long-Term Outcome in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in the Drug-Eluting Stenting Era: A Two-Year Cohort Study

Background

Previous studies suggest the higher the red blood cell distribution width (RDW) the greater the risk of mortality in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the relationship between RDW and long-term outcome in CAD patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with a drug-eluting stent (DES) remains unclear. This study was designed to evaluate the long-term effect of RDW in patients treated with drug-eluting stent for CAD.

Methods

In total of 2169 non-anemic patients (1468 men, mean age 60.2±10.9 years) with CAD who had undergone successful PCI and had at least one drug-eluting stent were included in this study. Patients were grouped according to their baseline RDW: Quartile 1 (RDW<12.27%), Quartile 2 (12.27%≤RDW<13%), Quartile 3 (13%≤RDW<13.5%), and Quartile 4 (RDW≥13.5).

Results

The incidence of in-hospital mortality and death or myocardial infarction was significantly higher in Quartiles 3 and 4 compared with Quartile 1 (P<0.05). After a follow-up of 29 months, the incidence of all-cause death and stent thrombosis in Quartile 4 was higher than in Quartiles 1, 2, and 3 (P<0.05). The incidence of death/myocardial infarction/stroke and cardiac death in Quartile 4 was higher than in Quartiles 1 and 2 (P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that RDW was an independent predictor of all-cause death (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.15–1.62, P<0.001) and outcomes of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (HR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.04–1.39, P = 0.013). The cumulative survival rate of Quartile 4 was lower than that of Quartiles 1, 2, and 3 (P<0.05).

Conclusion

High RDW is an independent predictor of long-term adverse clinical outcomes in non-anemic patients with CAD treated with DES.     

Magnesium Modifies the Cardiovascular Mortality Risk Associated with Hyperphosphatemia in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis: A Cohort Study

Background

In vitro studies have shown inhibitory effects of magnesium (Mg) on phosphate-induced calcification of vascular smooth muscle cells, raising the possibility that maintaining a high Mg level may be useful for reducing cardiovascular risks of patients with hyperphosphatemia. We examined how serum Mg levels affect the association between serum phosphate levels and the risk of cardiovascular mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis.

Methods

A nationwide register-based cohort study was conducted using database of the Renal Data Registry of the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy in 2009. We identified 142,069 patients receiving in-center hemodialysis whose baseline serum Mg and phosphate levels were available. Study outcomes were one-year cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Serum Mg levels were categorized into three groups (lower, <2.7 mg/dL; intermediate, ≥2.7, <3.1 mg/dL; and higher, ≥3.1 mg/dL).

Results

During follow-up, 11,401 deaths occurred, out of which 4,751 (41.7%) were ascribed to cardiovascular disease. In multivariable analyses, an increase in serum phosphate levels elevated the risk of cardiovascular mortality in the lower- and intermediate-Mg groups, whereas no significant risk increment was observed in the higher-Mg group. Moreover, among patients with serum phosphate levels of ≥6.0 mg/dL, the cardiovascular mortality risk significantly decreased with increasing serum Mg levels (adjusted odds ratios [95% confidence intervals] of the lower-, intermediate-, and higher-Mg groups were 1.00 (reference), 0.81 [0.66–0.99], and 0.74 [0.56–0.97], respectively.). An interaction between Mg and phosphate on the risk of cardiovascular mortality was statistically significant (P = 0.03).

Conclusion

Serum Mg levels significantly modified the mortality risk associated with hyperphosphatemia in patients undergoing hemodialysis.     

Development and Validation of a Composite Programmatic Assessment Tool for HIV Therapy

Background

We developed and validated a new and simple metric, the Programmatic Compliance Score (PCS), based on the IAS-USA antiretroviral therapy management guidelines for HIV-infected adults, as a predictor of all-cause mortality, at a program-wide level. We hypothesized that non-compliance would be associated with the highest probability of mortality.

Methods and Findings

3543 antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected patients aged ≥19 years who initiated antiretroviral therapy between January 1, 2000 and August 31, 2009 in British Columbia (BC), Canada, were followed until August 31, 2010. The PCS is composed by six non-performance indicators based on the IAS-USA guidelines: (1) having <3 CD4 count tests in the first year after starting antiretroviral therapy; (2) having <3 plasma viral load tests in the first year after starting antiretroviral therapy; (3) not having drug resistance testing done prior to starting antiretroviral therapy; (4) starting on a non-recommended antiretroviral therapy regimen; (5) starting therapy with CD4 <200 cells/mm³; and (6) not achieving viral suppression within 6 months since antiretroviral therapy initiation. The sum of these six indicators was used to develop the PCS score - higher score indicates poorer performance. The main outcome was all-cause mortality. Each PCS component was independently associated with mortality. In the mortality analysis, the odds ratio (OR) for PCS ≥4 versus 0 was 22.37 (95% CI 10.46–47.84).

Conclusions

PCS was strongly associated with all-cause mortality. These results lend independent validation to the IAS-USA treatment guidelines for HIV-infected adults. Further efforts are warranted to enhance the PCS as a means to further improve clinical outcomes. These should be specifically evaluated and targeted at healthcare providers and patients.     

Mortality Trends from 2003 to 2009 among Adolescents and Young Adults in Rural Western Kenya Using a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Targeted global efforts to improve survival of young adults need information on mortality trends; contributions from health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) are required.

Methods and Findings

This study aimed to explore changing trends in deaths among adolescents (15–19 years) and young adults (20–24 years), using census and verbal autopsy data in rural western Kenya using a HDSS. Mid-year population estimates were used to generate all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 population by age and gender, by communicable (CD) and non-communicable disease (NCD) causes. Linear trends from 2003 to 2009 were examined. In 2003, all-cause mortality rates of adolescents and young adults were 403 and 1,613 per 100,000 population, respectively, among females; and 217 and 716 per 100,000, respectively, among males. CD mortality rates among females and males 15–24 years were 500 and 191 per 100,000 (relative risk [RR] 2.6; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.7–4.0; p<0.001). NCD mortality rates in same aged females and males were similar (141 and 128 per 100,000, respectively; p = 0.76). By 2009, young adult female all-cause mortality rates fell 53% (χ² for linear trend 30.4; p<0.001) and 61.5% among adolescent females (χ² for linear trend 11.9; p<0.001). No significant CD mortality reductions occurred among males or for NCD mortality in either gender. By 2009, all-cause, CD, and NCD mortality rates were not significantly different between males and females, and among males, injuries equalled HIV as the top cause of death.

Conclusions

This study found significant reductions in adolescent and young adult female mortality rates, evidencing the effects of targeted public health programmes, however, all-cause and CD mortality rates among females remain alarmingly high. These data underscore the need to strengthen programmes and target strategies to reach both males and females, and to promote NCD as well as CD initiatives to reduce the mortality burden amongst both gender.     

Cytomegalovirus Viral Load Kinetics in Patients with HIV/AIDS Admitted to a Medical Intensive Care Unit: A Case for Pre-Emptive Therapy

Background

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is associated with severe diseases in immunosuppressed patients; however, there is a lack of data for pre-emptive therapy in patients with HIV/AIDS.

Method

This was a retrospective study, which enrolled patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS (CD4<200 cells/μl), who had detectable CMV viral load (VL) during their stay in an adult medical intensive care unit between 2009–2012.

Results

After screening 82 patients’ records, 41 patients met the enrolment criteria. Their median age was 37 (interquartile range [IQR]: 31–46), and median CD4 count was 29 cells/μl (IQR: 5–55). Sixteen patients (39%) had serial measurements of CMV VL before treatment with ganciclovir. Patients whose baseline CMV VL values were between 1,000–3,000 copies/ml had significantly higher values (median of 14,650 copies/ml) on follow-up testing done 4–12 days later. Those with undetectable VLs at baseline testing had detectable VLs (median of 1,590 copies/ml) mostly within 20 days of follow-up testing. Patients who had VLs >1,000 copies/ml at baseline testing had significantly higher mortality compared to those who had <1,000 copies/ml {hazard ratio of 3.46, p = 0.003 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.55–7.71]}. Analysis of the highest CMV VL per patient showed that patients who had VLs of >5,100 copies/ml and did not receive ganciclovir had 100% mortality compared to 58% mortality in those who received ganciclovir at VLs of >5,100 copies/ml, 50% mortality in those who were not treated and had low VLs of <5,100 copies/ml, and 44% mortality in those who had ganciclovir treatment at VLs of <5,100 copies/ml (p = 0.084, 0.046, 0.037, respectively).

Conclusion

This study showed a significantly increased mortality in patients with HIV/AIDS who had high CMV VLs, and suggests that a threshold value of 1,000 copies/ml may be appropriate for pre-emptive treatment in this group.