Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population''s evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population''s evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population''s evolvability under rapid environmental change.     

Population structure and local selection yield high genomic variation in Mimulus guttatus

Across western North America, Mimulus guttatus exists as many local populations adapted to site‐specific environmental challenges. Gene flow between locally adapted populations will affect genetic diversity both within demes and across the larger metapopulation. Here, we analyse 34 whole‐genome sequences from the intensively studied Iron Mountain population (IM) in conjunction with sequences from 22 Mimulus individuals sampled from across western North America. Three striking features of these data address hypotheses about migration and selection in a locally adapted population. First, we find very high levels of intrapopulation polymorphism (synonymous π = 0.033). Variation outside of genes is likely even higher but difficult to estimate because excessive divergence reduces the efficiency of read mapping. Second, IM exhibits a significantly positive genomewide average for Tajima's D. This indicates allele frequencies are typically more intermediate than expected from neutrality, opposite the pattern observed in many other species. Third, IM exhibits a distinctive haplotype structure with a genomewide excess of positive associations between rarer alleles at linked loci. This suggests an important effect of gene flow from other Mimulus populations, although a residual effect of population founding might also contribute. The combination of multiple analyses, including a novel tree‐based analytic method, illustrates how the balance of local selection, limited dispersal and metapopulation dynamics manifests across the genome. The overall genomic pattern of sequence diversity suggests successful gene flow of divergent immigrant genotypes into IM. However, many loci show patterns indicative of local adaptation, particularly at SNPs associated with chromosomal inversions.     

Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low‐latitude/low‐elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate‐induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient. We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual‐based model. We compare range‐wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs), and for a single climate genotype vs. multiple genotypes locally adapted to temperature. During climate stability, dispersal decreased towards RLs when fitness was uniform, but increased when fitness declined towards RLs, due to highly dispersive genotypes maintaining sink populations at RLs, increased kin selection in smaller populations, and an emergent fitness asymmetry that favoured dispersal in low‐quality habitat. However, this initial dispersal advantage at low‐fitness RLs did not facilitate climate tracking, as it was outweighed by an increased probability of extinction. Locally adapted genotypes benefited from staying close to their climate optima; this selected against dispersal under stable climates but for increased dispersal throughout shifting ranges, compared to cases without local adaptation. Dispersal increased at expanding RLs in most scenarios, but only increased at the range centre and contracting RLs given local adaptation to climate.     

Habitat-specific natural selection at a flowering-time QTL is a main driver of local adaptation in two wild barley populations

Understanding the genetic basis of local adaptation requires insight in the fitness effects of individual loci under natural field conditions. While rapid progress is made in the search for genes that control differences between plant populations, it is typically unknown whether the genes under study are in fact key targets of habitat-specific natural selection. Using a quantitative trait loci (QTL) approach, we show that a QTL associated with flowering-time variation between two locally adapted wild barley populations is an important determinant of fitness in one, but not in the other population's native habitat. The QTL mapped to the same position as a habitat-specific QTL for field fitness that affected plant reproductive output in only one of the parental habitats, indicating that the genomic region is under differential selection between the native habitats. Consistent with the QTL results, phenotypic selection of flowering time differed between the two environments, whereas other traits (growth rate and seed weight) were under selection but experienced no habitat-specific differential selection. This implies the flowering-time QTL as a driver of adaptive population divergence. Our results from phenotypic selection and QTL analysis are consistent with local adaptation without genetic trade-offs in performance across environments, i.e. without alleles or traits having opposing fitness effects in contrasting environments.     

Tracking climate change in a dispersal-limited species: reduced spatial and genetic connectivity in a montane salamander

Tropical montane taxa are often locally adapted to very specific climatic conditions, contributing to their lower dispersal potential across complex landscapes. Climate and landscape features in montane regions affect population genetic structure in predictable ways, yet few empirical studies quantify the effects of both factors in shaping genetic structure of montane-adapted taxa. Here, we considered temporal and spatial variability in climate to explain contemporary genetic differentiation between populations of the montane salamander, Pseudoeurycea leprosa. Specifically, we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) and measured spatial connectivity and gene flow (using both mtDNA and microsatellite markers) across extant populations of P. leprosa in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TVB). Our results indicate significant spatial and genetic isolation among populations, but we cannot distinguish between isolation by distance over time or current landscape barriers as mechanisms shaping population genetic divergences. Combining ecological niche modelling, spatial connectivity analyses, and historical and contemporary genetic signatures from different classes of genetic markers allows for inference of historical evolutionary processes and predictions of the impacts future climate change will have on the genetic diversity of montane taxa with low dispersal rates. Pseudoeurycea leprosa is one montane species among many endemic to this region and thus is a case study for the continued persistence of spatially and genetically isolated populations in the highly biodiverse TVB of central Mexico.     

On the potential strength and consequences for nonrandom gene flow caused by local adaptation in flowering time

Gene flow is generally considered a random process, that is the loci under consideration have no effect on dispersal success. Edelaar and Bolnick (Trends Ecol Evol, 27, 2012 659) recently argued that nonrandom gene flow could exert a significant evolutionary force. It can, for instance, ameliorate the maladaptive effects of immigration into locally adapted populations. I examined the potential strength for nonrandom gene flow for flowering time genes, a trait frequently found to be locally adapted. The idea is that plants that successfully export pollen into a locally adapted resident population will be a genetically biased subset of their natal population – they will have resident‐like flowering times. Reciprocally, recipients will be more migrant‐like than the resident population average. I quantified the potential for biased pollen exchange among three populations along a flowering time cline in Brassica rapa from southern California. A two‐generation line cross experiment demonstrated genetic variance in flowering time, both within and among populations. Calculations based on the variation in individual flowering schedules showed that resident plants with the most migrant‐like flowering times could expect to have up to 10 times more of the their flowers pollinated by immigrant pollen than the least migrant‐like. Further, the mean flowering time of the pollen exporters that have access to resident mates differs by up to 4 weeks from the mean in the exporters’ natal population. The data from these three populations suggest that the bias in gene flow for flowering time cuts the impact on the resident population by as much as half. This implies that when selection is divergent between populations, migrants with the highest mating success tend to be resident‐like in their flowering times, and so, fewer maladaptive alleles will be introduced into the locally adapting gene pool.     

Evolutionary rescue by beneficial mutations in environments that change in space and time

A factor that may limit the ability of many populations to adapt to changing conditions is the rate at which beneficial mutations can become established. We study the probability that mutations become established in changing environments by extending the classic theory for branching processes. When environments change in time, under quite general conditions, the establishment probability is approximately twice the ‘effective selection coefficient’, whose value is an average that gives most weight to a mutant''s fitness in the generations immediately after it appears. When fitness varies along a gradient in a continuous habitat, increased dispersal generally decreases the chance a mutation establishes because mutations move out of areas where they are most adapted. When there is a patch of favourable habitat that moves in time, there is a maximum speed of movement above which mutations cannot become established, regardless of when and where they first appear. This critical speed limit, which is proportional to the mutation''s maximum selective advantage, represents an absolute constraint on the potential of locally adapted mutations to contribute to evolutionary rescue.     

Local adaptation along smooth ecological gradients causes phylogeographic breaks and phenotypic clustering

Coalescent theory has provided a basis for evolutionary biologists to build sophisticated methods for inferring population history from variation in genetic markers, but these methods leave out a major conceptual cornerstone of modern evolutionary theory: natural selection. I provide the first quantitative analysis of the effects of selection on genealogical patterns in a continuously distributed population in which the selective optimum for a trait linked to the marker varies gradually and continuously across the landscape. Simulations show that relatively weak selection for local adaptation can lead to strong phylogeographic structure, in which highly divergent genealogical groups (i.e., clades) are geographically localized and differentially adapted, and dramatically increased standing variation (e.g., coalescence time) compared to neutral expectations. This pattern becomes more likely with increasing population size and with decreasing dispersal distances, mutation rates, and mutation sizes. Under some conditions, the system alternates between a nearly neutral behavior and a behavior in which highly divergent clades are locally adapted. Natural selection on markers commonly used in phylogeographic studies (such as mitochondrial DNA) presents a major challenge to the inference of biogeographic history but also provides exciting opportunities to study how selection affects both between- and within-species biodiversity.     

Antagonism between local dispersal and self-incompatibility systems in a continuous plant population

Many self-incompatible plant species exist in continuous populations in which individuals disperse locally. Local dispersal of pollen and seeds facilitates inbreeding because pollen pools are likely to contain relatives. Self-incompatibility promotes outbreeding because relatives are likely to carry incompatible alleles. Therefore, populations can experience an antagonism between these forces. In this study, a novel computational model is used to explore the effects of this antagonism on gene flow, allelic diversity, neighbourhood sizes, and identity by descent. I confirm that this antagonism is sensitive to dispersal levels and linkage. However, the results suggest that there is little to no difference between the effects of gametophytic and sporophytic self-incompatibility systems (GSI and SSI) on unlinked loci. More importantly, both GSI and SSI affect unlinked loci in a manner similar to obligate outcrossing without mating types. This suggests that the primary evolutionary impact of self-incompatibility systems may be to prevent selfing, and prevention of biparental inbreeding might be a beneficial side-effect.     

In the presence of population structure: From genomics to candidate genes underlying local adaptation

Understanding the genomic signatures, genes, and traits underlying local adaptation of organisms to heterogeneous environments is of central importance to the field evolutionary biology. To identify loci underlying local adaptation, models that combine allelic and environmental variation while controlling for the effects of population structure have emerged as the method of choice. Despite being evaluated in simulation studies, there has not been a thorough investigation of empirical evidence supporting local adaptation across these alleles. To evaluate these methods, we use 875 Arabidopsis thaliana Eurasian accessions and two mixed models (GEMMA and LFMM) to identify candidate SNPs underlying local adaptation to climate. Subsequently, to assess evidence of local adaptation and function among significant SNPs, we examine allele frequency differentiation and recent selection across Eurasian populations, in addition to their distribution along quantitative trait loci (QTL) explaining fitness variation between Italy and Sweden populations and cis‐regulatory/nonsynonymous sites showing significant selective constraint. Our results indicate that significant LFMM/GEMMA SNPs show low allele frequency differentiation and linkage disequilibrium across locally adapted Italy and Sweden populations, in addition to a poor association with fitness QTL peaks (highest logarithm of odds score). Furthermore, when examining derived allele frequencies across the Eurasian range, we find that these SNPs are enriched in low‐frequency variants that show very large climatic differentiation but low levels of linkage disequilibrium. These results suggest that their enrichment along putative functional sites most likely represents deleterious variation that is independent of local adaptation. Among all the genomic signatures examined, only SNPs showing high absolute allele frequency differentiation (AFD) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) between Italy and Sweden populations showed a strong association with fitness QTL peaks and were enriched along selectively constrained cis‐regulatory/nonsynonymous sites. Using these SNPs, we find strong evidence linking flowering time, freezing tolerance, and the abscisic‐acid pathway to local adaptation.     

Matching habitat choice promotes species persistence under climate change

Species may survive under contemporary climate change by either shifting their range or adapting locally to the warmer conditions. Theoretical and empirical studies recently underlined that dispersal, the central mechanism behind these responses, may depend on the match between an individuals’ phenotype and local environment. Such matching habitat choice is expected to induce an adaptive gene flow, but it now remains to be studied whether this local process could promote species’ responses to climate change. Here, we investigate this by developing an individual‐based model including either random dispersal or temperature‐dependent matching habitat choice. We monitored population composition and distribution through space and time under climate change. Relative to random dispersal, matching habitat choice induced an adaptive gene flow that lessened spatial range loss during climate warming by improving populations’ viability within the range (i.e. limiting range fragmentation) and by facilitating colonization of new habitats at the cold margin. The model even predicted range contraction under random dispersal but range expansion under optimal matching habitat choice. These benefits of matching habitat choice for population persistence mostly resulted from adaptive immigration decision and were greater for populations with larger dispersal distance and higher emigration probability. We also found that environmental stochasticity resulted in suboptimal matching habitat choice, decreasing the benefits of this dispersal mode under climate change. However population persistence was still better under suboptimal matching habitat choice than under random dispersal. Our results highlight the urgent need to implement more realistic mechanisms of dispersal such as matching habitat choice into models predicting the impacts of ongoing climate change on biodiversity.     

Population subdivision in Australian temperate marine invertebrates: Larval connections versus historical factors*

This paper reviews the use of genetic data, in combination with manipulative experimentation, to infer the mode of reproduction and the extent and directionality of dispersal for a range of Australian temperate marine invertebrates. Local populations of obligately sexually reproducing species have been inferred to be strongly interconnected by larval dispersal, over distances of thousands of kilometres. Their larvae may be subject to strong post-settlement selection, but this selection is independent of obvious geographic or intertidal gradients. Within local populations selection may therefore result in apparently chaotic genetic patchiness which is eliminated by the effects of sexual reproduction and the widespread dispersal and mixing of the colonizing larvae of each generation. In partial contrast, local populations of species which rely on asexual reproduction for the maintenance of populations show evidence of similar larval connections, but no recent settlement of their sexually generated larvae has been demonstrated. The apparent connectedness of these populations may reflect either historical events or a more episodic pattern of settlement by sexually generated larvae. Local populations of these species are more highly differentiated as a result of the continued asexual replication of a limited number of genotypes. In one of these species, reciprocal transplantation of the clones within and among populations has revealed that resident clones can be highly locally adapted (as reflected by much higher asexual fecundity), which implies that selection is an important determinant of the composition of local populations. Nevertheless, the failure to detect continuing sexual recruitment into these populations obscures the evolutionary significance of this finding.     

Range margin populations show high climate adaptation lags in European trees

How populations of long‐living species respond to climate change depends on phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. Marginal populations are expected to have lags in adaptation (i.e. differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes population fitness and the local climate) because they receive pre‐adapted alleles from core populations preventing them from reaching a local optimum in their climatically marginal habitat. Yet, whether adaptation lags in marginal populations are a common feature across phylogenetically and ecologically different species and how lags can change with climate change remain unexplored. To test for range‐wide patterns of phenotypic variation and adaptation lags of populations to climate, we (a) built model ensembles of tree height accounting for the climate of population origin and the climate of the site for 706 populations monitored in 97 common garden experiments covering the range of six European forest tree species; (b) estimated populations' adaptation lags as the differences between the climatic optimum that maximizes tree height and the climate of the origin of each population; (c) identified adaptation lag patterns for populations coming from the warm/dry and cold/wet margins and from the distribution core of each species range. We found that (a) phenotypic variation is driven by either temperature or precipitation; (b) adaptation lags are consistently higher in climatic margin populations (cold/warm, dry/wet) than in core populations; (c) predictions for future warmer climates suggest adaptation lags would decrease in cold margin populations, slightly increasing tree height, while adaptation lags would increase in core and warm margin populations, sharply decreasing tree height. Our results suggest that warm margin populations are the most vulnerable to climate change, but understanding how these populations can cope with future climates depend on whether other fitness‐related traits could show similar adaptation lag patterns.     

The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche‐modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population‐level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.     

Whither Pst? The approximation of Qst by Pst in evolutionary and conservation biology

Local adaptation through natural selection can be inferred in case the additive genetic divergence in a quantitative trait across populations (Q(st)) exceeds the neutral expectation based on differentiation of neutral alleles across these populations (e.g. F(st)). As such, measuring Q(st) in relation to neutral differentiation presents a first-line investigation applicable in evolutionary biology (selection on functional genes) and conservation biology (identification of locally adapted coding genes). However, many species, especially those in need of conservation actions, are not amenable for the kind of breeding design required to estimate either narrow- or broad-sense Q(st). In such cases, Q(st) has been approximated by the phenotypic divergence in a trait across populations (P(st)). I here argue that the critical aspect for how well P(st) approximates Q(st) depends on the extent that additive genetic effects determine variation between populations relative to within populations. I review how the sensitivity of conclusions regarding local adaptation based on P(st) have been evaluated in the literature and find that many studies make a anticonservative null assumption in estimating P(st) and/or use a nonconservative approach to explore sensitivity of their conclusions. Data from two studies that have provided a second, independent assessment of selection in their system suggest that P(st)-F(st) comparisons should be interpreted very conservatively. I conclude with recommendations for improving the robustness of the inferences drawn from comparing P(st) with neutral differentiation.     

Revisiting the provenance delineation of a widespread shrub, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Frangula alnus</Emphasis>—the role of spatial,temporal and environmental patterns

Including population genetic aspects into the selection of planting material within the framework of conservation and restoration measures is of vital importance for the long-term persistence of populations. This is especially true facing climate change since genetic diversity and the spread of potentially beneficial alleles are important for the adaptability of populations. Therefore, knowledge about genetic variability within and between populations is a critical aspect when determining provenance regions. In our study, we investigated the population genetic structure of a widespread, insect-pollinated and mainly bird-dispersed shrub species, Frangula alnus, on the basis of seven microsatellites and two chloroplast DNA markers throughout Germany. The aim was to determine the spatial, temporal and ecological processes genetically structuring populations to critically revise existing provenance regions. Therefore, we conducted analyses on different spatial scales (country-wide, regional and local) using the two different marker sets in addition to environmental variables. We detected distinct patterns on all spatial scales which indicated influences of historic recolonization processes, regional differences of seed dispersal across the landscape, as well as small-scale spatial genetic structures attributable to local dispersal processes. No relation of underlying environmental gradients such as temperature or precipitation and genetic patterns was found. We conclude that different aspects of historic and more recent gene flow shape population genetic structures and that a thorough analysis on a variety of spatial, temporal and environmental scales is necessary to appropriately select planting material for conservation and restoration measures. Correspondingly, management advice regarding provenance delineations will be provided.     

A multiscale analysis of gene flow for the New England cottontail,an imperiled habitat specialist in a fragmented landscape

Landscape features of anthropogenic or natural origin can influence organisms' dispersal patterns and the connectivity of populations. Understanding these relationships is of broad interest in ecology and evolutionary biology and provides key insights for habitat conservation planning at the landscape scale. This knowledge is germane to restoration efforts for the New England cottontail (Sylvilagus transitionalis), an early successional habitat specialist of conservation concern. We evaluated local population structure and measures of genetic diversity of a geographically isolated population of cottontails in the northeastern United States. We also conducted a multiscale landscape genetic analysis, in which we assessed genetic discontinuities relative to the landscape and developed several resistance models to test hypotheses about landscape features that promote or inhibit cottontail dispersal within and across the local populations. Bayesian clustering identified four genetically distinct populations, with very little migration among them, and additional substructure within one of those populations. These populations had private alleles, low genetic diversity, critically low effective population sizes (3.2–36.7), and evidence of recent genetic bottlenecks. Major highways and a river were found to limit cottontail dispersal and to separate populations. The habitat along roadsides, railroad beds, and utility corridors, on the other hand, was found to facilitate cottontail movement among patches. The relative importance of dispersal barriers and facilitators on gene flow varied among populations in relation to landscape composition, demonstrating the complexity and context dependency of factors influencing gene flow and highlighting the importance of replication and scale in landscape genetic studies. Our findings provide information for the design of restoration landscapes for the New England cottontail and also highlight the dual influence of roads, as both barriers and facilitators of dispersal for an early successional habitat specialist in a fragmented landscape.     

Selection, load and inbreeding depression in a large metapopulation

The subdivision of a species into local populations causes its response to selection to change, even if selection is uniform across space. Population structure increases the frequency of homozygotes and therefore makes selection on homozygous effects more effective. However, population subdivision can increase the probability of competition among relatives, which may reduce the efficacy of selection. As a result, the response to selection can be either increased or decreased in a subdivided population relative to an undivided one, depending on the dominance coefficient F(ST) and whether selection is hard or soft. Realistic levels of population structure tend to reduce the mean frequency of deleterious alleles. The mutation load tends to be decreased in a subdivided population for recessive alleles, as does the expected inbreeding depression. The magnitude of the effects of population subdivision tends to be greatest in species with hard selection rather than soft selection. Population structure can play an important role in determining the mean fitness of populations at equilibrium between mutation and selection.     

The genetic basis of adaptive population differentiation: a quantitative trait locus analysis of fitness traits in two wild barley populations from contrasting habitats

We used a quantitative trait locus (QTL) approach to study the genetic basis of population differentiation in wild barley, Hordeum spontaneum. Several ecotypes are recognized in this model species, and population genetic studies and reciprocal transplant experiments have indicated the role of local adaptation in shaping population differences. We derived a mapping population from a cross between a coastal Mediterranean population and a steppe inland population from Israel and assessed F3 progeny fitness in the natural growing environments of the two parental populations. Dilution of the local gene pool, estimated as the proportion of native alleles at 96 marker loci in the recombinant lines, negatively affected fitness traits at both sites. QTLs for fitness traits tended to differ in the magnitude but not in the direction of their effects across sites, with beneficial alleles generally conferring a greater fitness advantage at their native site. Several QTLs showed fitness effects at one site only, but no opposite selection on individual QTLs was observed across the sites. In a common-garden experiment, we explored the hypothesis that the two populations have adapted to divergent nutrient availabilities. In the different nutrient environments of this experiment, but not under field conditions, fitness of the F3 progeny lines increased with the number of heterozygous marker loci. Comparison of QTL-effects that underlie genotype x nutrient interaction in the common-garden experiment and genotype x site interaction in the field suggested that population differentiation at the field sites may have been driven by divergent nutrient availabilities to a limited extent. Also in this experiment no QTLs were observed with opposite fitness effects in contrasting environments. Our data are consistent with the view that adaptive differentiation can be based on selection on multiple traits changing gradually along ecological gradients. This can occur without QTLs showing opposite fitness effects in the different environments, that is, in the absence of genetic trade-offs in performance between environments.