Demographic and genetic status of an isolated population of bog turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Glyptemys muhlenbergii</Emphasis>): implications for managing small populations of long-lived animals

In this study, we sought to determine the population stability and genetic diversity of one isolated population of the federally-threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) in North Carolina. Using capture–recapture data, we estimated adult survival and population growth rate from 1992 to 2007. We found that the population decreased from an estimated 36 adult turtles in 1994 to approximately 11 adult turtles in 2007. We found a constant adult survival of 0.893 (SE = 0.018, 95% confidence interval, 0.853–0.924) between 1992 and 2007. Using 18 microsatellite markers, we compared the genetic status of this population with five other bog turtle populations. The target population displayed allelic richness (4.8 ± 0.5) and observed heterozygosity (0.619 ± 0.064) within the range of the other bog turtle populations. Coalescent analysis of population growth rate, effective population size, and timing of population structuring event also indicated the genetics of the target population were comparable to the other populations studied. Estimates of effective population size were a proportion of the census size in all populations except the target population, in which the effective population size was larger than the census size (30 turtles vs. 11 turtles). We attribute the high genetic diversity in the target population to the presence of multiple generations of old turtles. This study illustrates that the demographic status of populations of long-lived species may not be reflected genetically if a decline occurred recently. Consequently, the genetic integrity of populations of long-lived animals experiencing rapid demographic bottlenecks may be preserved through conservation efforts effective in addressing demographic problems.     

Estimating demographic parameters for loggerhead sea turtles using mark–recapture data and a multistate model

The survival for adult loggerhead sea turtles from a saturation tagging study on Bald Head Island, NC, USA, was estimated using a multistate model with unobservable states to relax assumptions that are violated when survival is estimated from multistate models and produce more accurate estimates of survival, recapture, and breeding transition probabilities. The influence of time, trap dependence, and low site fidelity to the study nesting beach on survival and recapture were examined. The best model given the data included an imprecise site-fidelity effect on survival, constrained the reproductive cycle to 4 years, and contained a time effect on recapture rates. The estimate of annual survival for adult females was of 0.85, producing the highest estimate in the literature for loggerhead sea turtles. Multistate models should be applied to other nesting beach data for sea turtles to improve survival estimates and in turn the ability to model and manage populations.     

Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem,Montana

We estimated grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate (m_x) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Survivorship of a declining population of southern elephant seals, Mirounga leonina, in relation to age, sex and cohort

This study quantified both the age- and sex-specific survival rates of juveniles and adults, and tested for interannual differences in age-specific survival rates of the southern elephant seal population at Marion Island. Pups were tagged on an annual basis from 1983 onwards at Marion Island, and a consistent recapture program yielded data that was analysed using the software package MARK to obtain maximum-likelihood estimates of survival and capture probability. On average, 1st-year survival was 0.58 and 0.62, and survival rate averaged over the first 3 years of life, 0.69 and 0.74 for males and females, respectively. From years 4 to 9, the average survival rate was 0.66 and 0.75 for males and females, respectively. Survival estimates for elephant seals in their 10th–13th year are also presented, although these are based on very small sample sizes. Averages of age-specific survival estimates from the earlier (mostly 1983–1987 cohorts) and later (mostly 1988–1992 cohorts) periods were compared and considerable reductions were observed in 4th- and 5th-year male survival, and 4th-year female survival. The comparatively low adult survival is suggested as the proximate cause, and food limitation as deduced from the decline in survival of elephant seals with comparatively high energetic demands as the ultimate cause behind the population decline at Marion Island. Although not tied in with the decline of the population, 1987, 1990 and 1993 were identified as high-mortality years. Received: 14 December 1998 / Accepted: 14 June 1999     

Juvenile proportion as a predictor of freshwater turtle population change

The extreme longevity of turtles and tortoises can make it difficult to determine the conservation status of their populations because high annual adult survival may mask gradual attrition due to low levels of recruitment. When long-term demographic trends are unknown and available data are insufficient for population modelling, it may be assumed that a scarcity of juveniles indicates low recruitment that will result in population ageing and numerical decline. However, the reliability with which the proportion of juveniles foreshadows demographic change is uncertain. We tested the hypothesis that a low proportion of juveniles in a turtle population presages its ageing by analysing over 20 years of survey data for five discrete populations of the Australian western saw-shelled turtle (Myuchelys bellii: Chelidae), a listed threatened species. The analysis tested whether the initial proportion of juvenile turtles in each population was related to its temporal trend in average body size. The five populations had varied structure and trends, with the initial proportion of juvenile turtles ranging from 10% to 39% and average body size increasing over time in some populations and decreasing in others. Contrary to expectation, the initial proportion of juveniles was unrelated to the trend in average body size and, by inference, average age, indicating that effective trend forecasting requires more detailed demographic information than merely population structure.     

Life‐history constraints on maximum population growth for loggerhead turtles in the northwest Atlantic

Conservation planning for protected species often relies on estimates of life‐history parameters. A commonly used parameter is the instantaneous maximum population growth rate (r_max) that can be used to limit removals and design recovery targets. Estimation of r_max can be challenging because of limited availability of species‐ and population‐specific data and life‐history information. We applied a method proposed by Neil and Lebreton, originally developed for birds, to loggerhead turtles. The method uses age‐at‐first‐reproduction and adult survival to estimate r_max. We used a variety of datasets and matrix population models to confirm an allometric assumption required by the method, and to generate estimates of age‐at‐first‐reproduction and adult survival. A meta‐analysis was applied to parameters from reported growth curves, which were then combined with the size distribution of neophyte nesters to derive estimates of age‐at‐first‐reproduction. Adult survival rates were obtained from an existing matrix population model. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to combine the estimates of the allometric coefficients, age‐at‐first‐reproduction, and adult survival to obtain a probability distribution of approximate r_max values. Estimated annual maximum population growth rates averaged 0.024, with a mode of 0.017 and a 95% highest density interval of 0.006–0.047. These estimates were similar to values reported by others using different methods and captured the variability in positive, annual change estimates across nesting beach sites for the northwest Atlantic loggerhead population. The use of life‐history parameters has a long history in wildlife and fisheries management and conservation planning. Our estimates of r_max, while having some biases and uncertainty, encompassed values presently used in recovery planning for loggerhead turtles and offer additional information for the management of endangered and threatened species.     

Black Brant Harvest,Density Dependence,and Survival: A Record of Population Dynamics

ABSTRACT We analyzed 53 years of banding and band recovery data along with estimates of harvest and population size to assess the role of harvest and density dependence in survival patterns and population dynamics of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) over the period 1950–2003. The black brant population has declined steadily since complete annual surveys began in 1960, so the role of harvest in the dynamics of this population is of considerable interest. We used Brownie models implemented in Program MARK to analyze banding data. In some models, we incorporated estimated sport harvest to test hypotheses about the role of harvest in survival. We also examined the hypothesis of density-dependent regulation of mortality by incorporating estimates of population size as a covariate into models of survival. For a shorter period (1985–2003), we also assessed hypotheses about the role of subsistence harvest and predation as sources of mortality. The best supported model of variation in survival and band recovery allowed survival rates to vary among 2 age classes (juv, second-yr plus ad brant) and the 2 sexes. We constrained survival probabilities to be constant within decades but allowed them to vary among decades. We also constrained band recovery rates to be constant within decades and to vary in parallel among age and sex classes. We were limited to decade-specific estimates of survival and band recovery rates because some years before 1984 lacked any banding, and banding in some other years was sparse. A competitive model constrained survival estimates to be the same for males and females. No model containing harvest or population size was competitive with models lacking these covariates (relative quasi-Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size [βQAIC_c] > 13). In the best supported model, band recovery rates declined from 0.038 ± 0.0028 (F) and 0.040 ± 0.0031 (M) to 0.007 ± 0.0007 (F) and 0.007 ± 0.0007 (M) between the 1950s and 2000s, a clear indication that harvest rates declined over this period. Survival rates increased from 0.70 ± 0.02 and 0.71 ± 0.02 for adult males and females, respectively, in the 1950s to 0.88 ± 0.009 and 0.88 ± 0.01 for males and females, respectively, in the 1990s. Survival rates in the 1990s were among the highest estimated for brant and did not increase in the 2000s with additional reductions in sport harvest. For the shorter data set from 1985 to 2003, models containing covariates for either sport or subsistence harvest were less competitive than models lacking these terms (βQAIC_c > 3). For the best model containing subsistence harvest, the estimate of β linking subsistence harvest to survival, although imprecisely estimated, was near zero (β = −0.04 ± 0.30), consistent with the hypothesis that subsistence harvest had little impact on survival during this period. We conclude that while harvest likely influenced survival and population dynamics in earlier decades, it is most likely that continued population decline at least since 1990 is a result of low recruitment.     

Geographic variation and environmental correlates of apparent survival rates in adult tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor

Determining demographic rates in wild animal populations and understanding why rates vary are important challenges in population ecology and conservation. Whereas reproductive success is reported frequently for many songbird species, there are relatively few corresponding estimates of annual survival for widespread populations of the same migratory species. We incorporated mark–recapture data into Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to estimate annual apparent survival and recapture rates of adult male and female tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor in eight local breeding populations across North America for periods of 7–33 yr. We found strong site‐specific and annual variation in apparent survival rates of adult swallows, and evidence of higher survival or site fidelity among males than females. There were no strong associations between putative overwintering region and survival. Strength and patterns of winter climate‐apparent survival relationships varied across four sites monitored for >15 yr; at one site, spring pond conditions, local spring precipitation and, to a lesser extent, winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index were credible predictors of annual apparent survival. Further work is needed to evaluate how survival is related to environmental conditions throughout the annual cycle and how these factors affect population dynamics of swallows and related species of conservation concern.     

Variation in reproductive output of marine turtles

Most marine turtle species are non-annual breeders and show variation in both the number of eggs laid per clutch and the number of clutches laid in a season. Large levels of inter-annual variation in the number of nesting females have been well documented in green turtle nesting populations and may be linked to environmental conditions. Other species of marine turtle exhibit less variation in nesting numbers. This inter-specific difference is thought to be linked to trophic status. To examine whether individual reproductive output is more variable in the herbivorous green turtle (Chelonia mydas Linneaeus 1758) than the carnivorous loggerhead (Caretta caretta Linneaeus 1758), we examined the nesting of both species in Cyprus over nine seasons. Green turtles showed slower annual growth rates (0.11 cm year⁻¹ curved carapace length (CCL) and 0.27 cm year⁻¹ curved carapace width (CCW)) than loggerhead turtles (0.36 cm year⁻¹ CCL, 0.51 cm year⁻¹ CCW). CCL was highly correlated to mean clutch size in both green (R²=0.51) and loggerhead turtles (R²=0.61) and maximal clutch size of green turtles (R²=0.58). Larger females did not lay a greater number of clutches or have a shorter remigration interval than smaller females of either species. On average, the size of green turtle clutches increased and that of loggerhead turtles decreased as the season progressed. Individual green turtles, however, produced more eggs per clutch through the season to a maximum in the third or fourth clutch. In loggerhead turtles, clutches 1-4 were very similar in size but the fifth clutch was 38% smaller than the first. No individuals of either species were recorded laying more than five clutches. Green turtles may not be able to achieve their maximum reproductive output with respect to clutch size throughout the season, whereas only loggerhead turtles laying five clutches (n=5) appear to become resource depleted. Green turtles nesting in years when large numbers of nests were recorded laid a greater number of clutches than females nesting in years with lower levels of nesting.     

Not all management is equal: a comparison of methods to increase wood turtle population viability

Management generally targets the most tractable life stage to rescue declining populations; however, that stage may not have the largest influence on recovery. Freshwater turtles are declining globally and early stages are frequently targeted for management, although the effectiveness of these actions on population growth are relatively unknown because of incomplete demographic data. We estimated the hatchling yearly survival rate for a freshwater turtle in the field using in situ enclosures to collect missing demographic information. We used these data to develop demographic models to calculate growth rate for a hypothetical, declining population of wood turtles (Glyptemys insculpta) in Wisconsin, USA, 2014–2019. We modeled growth for populations across a range of scenarios from no management to combinations of nest protection and head-starting at varying levels of effort. Nest protection alone did not increase population growth rate, while head-starting alone increased population growth by 0.07, with the largest increase in growth rate, 0.11, resulting from combinations of both approaches. No combination of nest protection and head-starting, without an increase in adult survival rate from the observed 0.88 to ≥0.95, led to population stabilization or increase. Populations of freshwater turtles, like the wood turtle, will likely only recover with a multi-faceted approach that targets multiple life stages simultaneously.     

Effects of road proximity on genetic diversity and reproductive success of the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta)

Roads have a severe impact on wildlife. Reptiles are particularly susceptible due to their attraction to roads and their low car-avoidance capacity. For example, a high number of road killed freshwater turtles resulted from females selecting the unpaved side of roads as nesting sites. However, roads are harmful not only for adults, but are also expected to affect egg survival and recruitment. In this work, we indirectly determined whether the proximity to roads affects the reproductive success of freshwater turtles. The painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) was chosen for its population density, which is higher than most turtle species considered endangered. Locations near roads (<100 m) and in natural areas (>500 m) were sampled in three geographically distant ecoregions. We estimated the diversity of microsatellite loci from nuclear and mitochondrial genomes to assess the size of the kin groups as a proxy of the reproductive success of females. Similar diversity at nuclear markers suggested a comparable historical and demographic background among populations. However, lower mitochondrial diversity, higher mean and variance in the size of kin groups as well as a lower number of kin groups were strongly associated with the proximity to roads. Results indicated that a lower proportion of females participated in the recruitment of populations close to the roads than in natural areas, resulting in fewer but larger families near roads. We expect similar results for species nesting on the roadside. Barriers or fences that prevent individuals from reaching the road may help reduce their impacts on these populations.     

Accounting for Imperfect Detection Is Critical for Inferring Marine Turtle Nesting Population Trends

Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.     

Survival and Recovery Rate of Canada Geese Staging in Interior Alaska

Abstract: Lesser Canada geese (Branta canadensis parvipes) are indistinguishable from other subspecies of small Canada geese on the wintering grounds using current survey methods. Consequently, managers are unable to adequately measure their abundance. Without direct estimates of abundance, researchers often use estimates of vital rates that influence abundance (e.g., annual survival) to monitor potential impact of harvest on the population. Based on capture and re-sighting data records of 567 geese marked from 1994 through 1998, we calculated annual survival and recovery rates for different age and sex classes of white-cheeked geese staging in interior Alaska. We compared those survival and recovery rates with those of other neck-collared white-cheeked geese. The best approximating model allowed survival to vary by age class while holding Seber's recovery probability (r̂) constant over sex, age class, and time. We estimated annual survival to be 0.49 (SE = 0.05) for hatch-year geese and 0.68 (SE = 0.03) for after-hatch-year geese based on the weighted average of all models with a change in Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and lack of fit < 4. Estimates of annual survival of white-cheeked geese in this study are among the lowest and recovery estimates are among the highest for migratory populations of neck-collared geese. Low survival estimates of Canada geese in our study suggest that harvest rates may be higher than in many other populations. Surveys to estimate abundance or other population parameters such as reproductive success and recruitment are necessary to determine whether this population is self-sustaining. Furthermore, we recommend monitoring abundance and harvest of small white-cheeked geese east and west of the Cascade Mountain Range separately to better determine harvest pressure on white-cheeked geese wintering east of the Cascades.     

An Integrated Population Model for Harvest Management of Atlantic Brant

Atlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) are important game birds in the Atlantic Flyway and several long-term monitoring data sets could assist with harvest management, including a count-based survey and demographic data. Considering their relative strengths and weaknesses, integrated analysis to these data would likely improve harvest management, but tools for integration have not yet been developed. Managers currently use an aerial count survey on the wintering grounds, the mid-winter survey, to set harvest regulations. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) for Atlantic brant that uses multiple data sources to simultaneously estimate population abundance, survival, and productivity. The IPM abundance estimates for data from 1975–2018 were less variable than annual mid-winter survey counts or Lincoln estimates, presumably reflecting better accounting for observer error and incorporation of demographic estimates by the IPM. Posterior estimates of adult survival were high (0.77–0.87), and harvest rates of adults and juveniles were positively correlated with more liberal hunting regulations (i.e., hunting days and the daily bag limit). Productivity was variable, with the percent of juveniles in the winter population ranging from 1% to >40%. We found no evidence for environmental relationships with productivity. Using IPM-predicted population abundances rather than mid-winter survey counts alone would have meant fewer annual changes to hunting regulations since 2004. Use of the IPM could improve harvest management for Atlantic brant by providing the ability to predict abundance before annual hunting regulations are set, and by providing more stable hunting regulations, with fewer annual changes. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Population estimate and body size of European pond turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Emys orbicularis</Emphasis>) from Pazarağaç (Afyonkarahisar/Turkey)

Data on population size, adult sex ratio, body size and mass are provided for a population of the turtle Emys orbicularis near Pazara?aç (Afyonkarahisar/Turkey). Using the mark-recapture method (triple catch), a population size of 664 turtles was estimated (95% confidence interval, range 332–996), corresponding to a density of 83 turtles per hectare (range 41.5–124.5). The adult sex-ratio was significantly skewed in favor of males (2.02 males: 1 female; P < 0.001). Almost all recorded specimens were adult (98.1%). Mean straight carapace length (SCL) and body mass (BM) of adult turtles were: SCL = 128.65 mm, BM = 345 g for males (n = 168) and SCL = 135.37 mm, BM = 463 g for females (n = 83).     

Erratum to: Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4 years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1 year old was consistently low (0.56 ± 0.18 for yearlings, 0.77 ± 0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55 ± 0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24 ± 0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ = 0.82 ± 0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes.     

Assessing Compensatory Versus Additive Harvest Mortality: An Example Using Greater Sage-Grouse

ABSTRACT We used band-recovery data from 2 populations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), one in Colorado, USA, and another in Nevada, USA, to examine the relationship between harvest rates and annual survival. We used a Seber parameterization to estimate parameters for both populations. We estimated the process correlation between reporting rate and annual survival using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in Program MARK. If hunting mortality is additive to other mortality factors, then the process correlation between reporting and survival rates will be negative. Annual survival estimates for adult and juvenile greater sage-grouse in Nevada were 0.42±0.07 (x̄±SE) for both age classes, whereas estimates of reporting rate were 0.15±0.02 and 0.16±0.03 for the 2 age classes, respectively. For Colorado, average reporting rates were 0.14±0.016, 0.14±0.010, 0.19±0.014, and 0.18±0.014 for adult females, adult males, juvenile females, and juvenile males, respectively. Corresponding mean annual survival estimates were 0.59±0.01, 0.37±0.03, 0.78±0.01, and 0.64±0.03. Estimated process correlation between logit-transformed reporting and survival rates for greater sage-grouse in Colorado was ρ = 0.68±0.26, whereas that for Nevada was ρ = 0.04±0.58. We found no support for an additive effect of harvest on survival in either population, although the Nevada study likely had low power. This finding will assist mangers in establishing harvest regulations and otherwise managing greater sage-grouse populations.     

Living on the Edge: Viability of Moose in Northeastern Minnesota

ABSTRACT North temperate species on the southern edge of their distribution are especially at risk to climate-induced changes. One such species is the moose (Alces alces), whose continental United States distribution is restricted to northern states or northern portions of the Rocky Mountain cordillera. We used a series of matrix models to evaluate the demographic implications of estimated survival and reproduction schedules for a moose population in northeastern Minnesota, USA, between 2002 and 2008. We used data from a telemetry study to calculate adult survival rates and estimated calf survival and fertility of adult females by using results of helicopter surveys. Estimated age- and year-specific survival rates showed a sinusoidal temporal pattern during our study and were lower for younger and old-aged animals. Estimates of annual adult survival (when assumed to be constant for ages >1.7 yr old) ranged from 0.74 to 0.85. Annual calf survival averaged 0.40, and the annual ratio of calves born to radiocollared females averaged 0.78. Point estimates for the finite rate of increase (λ) from yearly matrices ranged from 0.67 to 0.98 during our 6-year study, indicative of a long-term declining population. Assuming each matrix to be equally likely to occur in the future, we estimated a long-term stochastic growth rate of 0.85. Even if heat stress is not responsible for current levels of survival, continuation of this growth rate will ultimately result in a northward shift of the southern edge of moose distribution. Population growth rate, and its uncertainty, was most sensitive to changes in estimated adult survival rates. The relative importance of adult survival to population viability has important implications for harvest of large herbivores and the collection of information on wildlife fertility.     

Do Roads Reduce Painted Turtle (Chrysemys picta) Populations?

Road mortality is thought to be a leading cause of turtle population decline. However, empirical evidence of the direct negative effects of road mortality on turtle population abundance is lacking. The purpose of this study was to provide a strong test of the prediction that roads reduce turtle population abundance. While controlling for potentially confounding variables, we compared relative abundance of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) in 20 ponds in Eastern Ontario, 10 as close as possible to high traffic roads (Road sites) and 10 as far as possible from any major roads (No Road sites). There was no significant effect of roads on painted turtle relative abundance. Furthermore, our data do not support other predictions of the road mortality hypothesis; we observed neither a higher relative frequency of males to females at Road sites than at No Road sites, nor a lower average body size of turtles at Road than at No Road sites. We speculate that, although roads can cause substantial adult mortality in turtles, other factors, such as release from predation on adults and/or nests close to roads counter the negative effect of road mortality in some populations. We suggest that road mitigation for painted turtles can be limited to locations where turtles are forced to migrate across high traffic roads due, for example, to destruction of local nesting habitat or seasonal drying of ponds. This conclusion should not be extrapolated to other species of turtles, where road mortality could have a larger population-level effect than on painted turtles.