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In a recent articleBocquet-Appel & Masset (1985) renew their criticism of paleodemography and criticizeVan Gerven & Armelagos' (1983) defense of paleodemographic methods. In the present analysis we respond toBocquet-Appel andMasset's criticisms ofVan Gerven andArmelagos and then address the question of whether paleodemographic methods are capable of producing plausible results based on what is known about contemporary human populations. This is done by expanding the life tables previously analysed byVan Gerven and co-workers for the Medieval Christian site of Kulubnarti in Nubia'sBatn el Hajar. The expanded results are then compared to data obtained from contemporary human populations as well as interpreted in light of Nubian culture history.  相似文献   

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The relationship between age, sex and histomorphometry in femoral cortical bone was examined in a skeletal population of late Medieval antiquity (AD 1250–1450) from Kulubnarti, in Sudanese Nubia. These skeletal remains are naturally mummified and in an excellent state of preservation. The study sample consisted of femoral cross sections from 24 females and 19 males ranging in age from 20 to 50+ years. Femoral cross sections were examined using an image analysis system. Numbers of secondary osteons and osteon fragments were counted, osteon area and Haversian canal area were measured, and several variables were calculated to assess differences between sexes and among age groups in bone remodeling variables. The results indicate significant differences between the sexes in osteon number and size. Males had significantly more intact osteons than females, whereas females had significantly larger osteons than males. Haversian canal dimensions were not statistically significant between the sexes. Sex differences in activity patterns in which males were involved in more physically strenuous tasks may have contributed to differences in remodeling variables. Interpopulational comparisons suggest that mechanical strain affects the microstructural features examined in this study. In particular, small Haversian canals in some archaeological skeletal populations are associated with higher bone volume, which may result from high levels of mechanical strain. Am J Phys Anthropol 104:133–146, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.  相似文献   

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Diet and growth of leaf-shredding caddisfly larvae, Pycnopsyche spp.,were examined in streams draining a reference catchment and a 16-year-oldclear-cut (disturbed) catchment at Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory insouthwestern North Carolina, USA. The objective was to explain why shredderproduction is higher in the disturbed streams despite the larvae having lessfood (i.e., leaves) available. We predicted larvae would grow faster onfast-decaying leaf material representative of the disturbed streams. Larvaeconsumed mostly leaf detritus in three streams draining each catchment overthree seasons (fall, winter, and spring), which showed larvae did notconsume higher quality foods (e.g., algae and animal material) in disturbedstreams. When fed 2-month-old conditioned black birch (Betula lenta L.) (afast-decaying leaf species) and white oak (Quercus alba L.) (a slow-decayingleaf species) leaves in the laboratory, larvae grew significantly faster onthe birch leaves. However, when larvae were fed the same leaf types after3-months conditioning, larvae grew significantly faster on oak leaves. Afield growth experiment conducted for 42 d using mixed-species leaf dietsrepresentative of each catchment and initially conditioned for 2 monthsfound that Pycnopsyche grew significantly better on the diet representativeof the reference catchment. The reference diet contained more oak leaveswhich apparently became a more acceptable food as the experiment proceeded.High shredder production in the disturbed streams could not be explained byhigh Pycnopsyche growth rates on fast-decaying leaves. Instead, larvae grewbetter on leaves that were apparently conditioned optimally regardless ofconditioning rate.  相似文献   

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Sustainable use of tropical forest systems requires continuous monitoring of biological diversity and ecosystem functions. This can be efficiently done with early warning (short-cycle) indicator groups of non-economical insects, whose population levels and resources are readily measured. Twenty-one groups of insects are evaluated as focal indicator taxa for rapid assessment of changes in Neotropical forest systems. Composite environmental indices for heterogeneity, richness, and natural disturbance are correlated positively with butterfly diversity in 56 Neotropical sites studied over many years. Various components of alpha, beta and gamma-diversity show typical responses to increased disturbance and different land-use regimes. Diversity often increases with disturbance near or below natural levels, but some sensitive species and genes are eliminated at very low levels of interference. Agricultural and silvicultural mosaics with over 30% conversion, including selective logging of three or more large trees per hectare, show shifts in species composition with irreversible loss of many components of the butterfly community, indicating non-sustainable land and resource use and reduction of future options. Monitoring of several insect indicator groups by local residents in a species-rich Brazilian Amazon extractive reserve has helped suggest guidelines for cologically, economically, and socially sustainable zoning and use regimes.  相似文献   

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Ansquer P  Duru M  Theau JP  Cruz P 《Annals of botany》2009,103(1):117-126
Background and Aims: Fodder provision in species-rich grasslands, i.e. herbage growth,proportion of leaf, and leaf and stem digestibility, is difficultto predict for short periods of time, such as between two defoliationsor less. The value of two methods based on plant traits forevaluating these agronomic properties was examined. Methods: One method is based on plant trait measurements on the plantcommunity (leaf dry matter content, plant height, floweringdate); the other is on vegetation composition expressed as plantfunctional types (acquisitive versus conservative PFTs) establishedby measuring leaf dry matter content on pure grass stands. Theexperiment consisted of 18 fields with three different defoliationregimes (combinations of cutting and grazing) and two levelsof fertilization. To establish a growth curve over the firstgrowth cycle, herbage was sampled about 10 times in spring. Key Results: Coefficients of correlation between agronomic properties ofthe vegetation and its functional composition were higher whenthe latter was assessed through PFT and an indicator of theplant nutrient status (Ni) instead of measured plant traits.The date at which the ceiling yield occurred for the standingherbage mass or only the leaf component, which varied by upto 500 degree-days between treatments, and the leaf proportion,depended entirely on the PFT, and largely so for the leaf digestibility.The standing herbage mass at the time of ceiling yield dependedonly on Ni, or mainly so in the case of the daily herbage growthrate. Similar plant digestibility between plant communitieswas found at flowering time, although there were big differencesin PFT composition. The shape of the growth curve was flatterwhen there was great functional diversity in the plant community. Conclusions: The PFT composition and the Ni were more reliable than the plantfunctional traits measured in the field for evaluating herbagegrowth pattern and digestibility in spring.  相似文献   

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This paper presents an analysis of conversion of natural habitat to human use on a global scale. Human disturbance of natural systems is classified in a three-category system and ranked using a Habitat Index based on remaining undisturbed and partially disturbed land. Data is analysed by biome and biogeographic province, allowing identification of the biomes and provinces which have been the most impacted by human activity. Temperate biomes are found to be generally more disturbed than tropical biomes. Four of the top five most disturbed biomes are temperate. Certain biomes and geographic areas stand out as conservation priorities, notably the islands of Southeast Asia, Mediterranean vegetation types, Temperate Broadleaf Forests and Tropical Dry Forests. Areas for which data deficiencies exist are identified.  相似文献   

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We assayed the diurnal concentrations of growth hormone (GH) and prolactin (PRL) in 6 healthy male volunteers to evaluate the self-similar features in the time series of each hormone on the basis of fractal theory and to determine the fractal dimension as an index of the complexity of the diurnal variation. In addition, we assessed the effects of a 6-hour delay in the sleep period on the complexity of the diurnal variaton of these hormones. There was a statistically significant fractal feature in the serum levels of GH both under the nocturnal-sleep and delayed-sleep conditions in all subjects. The time series of the serum PRL concentrations also showed a statistically significant fractal feature under the nocturnal-sleep and delayed-sleep conditions in all subjects. The fractal dimensions of the patterns of the GH or PRL levels were 1.879 and 1.929 or 1.754 and 1.785 under the nocturnal-sleep and delayed-sleep conditions, respectively. Two-way ANOVA revealed no significant difference in the fractal dimension between the two sleep conditions but did reveal a significant difference between the fractal dimensions of the GH and PRL levels. These results showed (1) that delayed sleep had no significant effect on the complexity of the diurnal pattern of these hormones, and (2) that the diurnal pattern of the GH levels was more complex than that of the PRL levels.  相似文献   

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Summary As a quantitative approach to the life history, the present paper numerically analyzed a relation among growth, reproduction and mortality for nine fish populations with a technique of optimal control theory, the discrete maximum principle. The analytical method used was derived on the postulate that natural selection maximized the net reproductive rate subject to a few constraints. A comparison between the theoretical and observed survival rate showed that the former was discernibly lower than the latter in all the populations except the three species. For the reasons mentioned below, however, the analyzed life history data should not be interpreted as a refutation of the adopted postulate and the method. First, it is generally very difficult to obtain a good estimate of the rate with traditional methods. Moreover, it is probable in most fish populations that the rate considerably changes with age even in the adult stage though it is usually estimated on the assumption that it is constant in a certain age range. Second, an intense fishing pressure possibly alters the life history characteristics of fish populations to some extent.  相似文献   

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This paper concludes a collection of contributions presented at the 8th Workshop of the International Association of Phytoplankton Taxonomy and Ecology. It derives a consensus as to the virtues and strengths of J. H. Connell's Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis (IDH), its applicability to phytoplankton ecology and its theoretical and practical weaknesses. The view is expressed that the IDH is too useful a concept to reject and that, as a word model, it provides a powerful link between diversity and disturbance. The more robust investigations that are necessary to consolidate the tenancy of IDH need to concentrate upon the separation and quantification of the stimulus- and response-components of disturbance.  相似文献   

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《Ostrich》2013,84(2):227-234
A collection of almost 830 specimens of birds and their eggs was made at Deelfontein, Northern Cape province, South Africa, in 1901 and 1902, by two soldiers who had enlisted in the Yeomanry during the South African (Boer) War. A total of 151 bird species has been recorded in the Deelfontein area in two periods, 1901–1902 and 1987–1992. There has been no apparent change in occurrence in 82 species, but 40 species were recorded only in 1901–1902, and 29 species were recorded only by observers who completed field cards for the area for the SABAP surveys in 1987–1992. It is suggested that the differences in bird species composition are most likely associated with anthropogenic influences including land-use changes and over-utilisation of shrublands as grazing for domestic livestock.  相似文献   

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Measuring trends in the size of prehistoric populations is fundamental to our understanding of the demography of ancient people and their responses to environmental change. Archaeologists commonly use the temporal distribution of radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population trends, but this can give a false picture of population growth because of the loss of evidence from older sites. We demonstrate a method for quantifying this bias, and we use it to test for population growth through the Holocene of Australia. We used model simulations to show how turnover of site occupation across an archaeological landscape, interacting with erasure of evidence at abandoned sites, can create an increase in apparent site occupation towards the present when occupation density is actually constant. By estimating the probabilities of abandonment and erasure from archaeological data, we then used the model to show that this effect does not account for the observed increase in occupation through the Holocene in Australia. This is best explained by population growth, which was low for the first part of the Holocene but accelerated about 5000 years ago. Our results provide new evidence for the dynamism of non-agricultural populations through the Holocene.  相似文献   

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On a measure of lack of fit in time series models   总被引:67,自引:0,他引:67  
LJUNG  G. M.; BOX  G. E. P. 《Biometrika》1978,65(2):297-303
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17.
Mutuku Mathooko  Jude 《Hydrobiologia》1997,362(1-3):211-218
Field experiments to examine the effect of continuous physical disturbance on the Ephemeroptera of the Naro Moru River, Kenya, wereundertaken from June 1993 to January 1994. Continuous disturbance wasadministered on a randomly selected subsite of the sediment surface.Artificial physical disturbance within the experimental subsite involvedcontinuous local displacement, shifting and stirring of the streambedsurface substrates (about 10 cm depth) by hand every one minute for 10 or 14min. Three control samples were also taken randomly from the sedimentsurface of an undisturbed stratified area of the study riffle at the startof each disturbance occasion. All samples were collected using a Hesssampler (surface sampling area of 3.142 dm2; meshsize 80μm). Seven mayfly species were particularly abundant and these included Afronurus sp., Afroptilum sudafricanum LESTAGE, Baetis s.l., Baetis(Nigrobaetis) sp. 1, Baetis (Nigrobaetis) sp. 2, Caenis sp. and Choroterpes(Euthraulus) sp. About 83,8% of the total mayfly density and88.1% of the biomass were removed from the streambed surface withinthe first three minutes of continuous physical disturbance. A mayfly biomassof 33.7391 mg dm2 and total density of 1357.6 inddm2 were collected from the disturbed subsite during the studyduration. Further, a biomass of about 42.8335 mg dm−2and total density of 2366 ind dm−2 were collected fromthe control sites. There was a near-complete depletion of mayflyindividuals from the topmost sediment layer within 14 min of continuousdisturbance. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

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Summary Environmental managers are often confronted with unplanned or accidental disturbances that may lead to environmental impacts. Procedures for detecting or measuring the size of such impacts are complicated because of the lack of data available before the disturbance and because of the intrinsic variability of most natural measures. Here, a protocol for detecting impacts is illustrated for single‐measure variables (numbers of individual species) and multivariate measures (relative abundances of invertebrates in assemblages). The present paper describes a case concerning drainage of acidified water into an estuary due to construction of a drainage channel in an area of wetland for which there had been no prior investigations (i.e. no ‘before’ data). The spatial extent of any impact was also unknowable. Sampling was, therefore, designed to allow for impacts of only a few tens of metres (using control sites 50 m from the mouth of the channel) and impacts covering much larger areas (500 m and 1 km from the mouth of the channel). Invertebrates in the mud around the channel and in control sites were sampled in replicated cores and the amount of seagrass in each core was weighed. Average abundances of invertebrate animals and weights of seagrass were compared, as was variation among samples in potentially impacted and control sites (using univariate analyses of variance). Sets of species were compared using multivariate methods to test the hypothesis that there was an impact at one of the scales examined. In fact, there was no evidence for any sort of impact on the fauna or seagrasses; the disturbance was a short‐term pulse without any obvious or sustained ecological response. One consequence of the study was that the local council was able to demonstrate no impact requiring remediation and no penalties were imposed for the unapproved construction of the channel. The implications of this type of study after an environmental disturbance are discussed. The present study identifies the need for clear definition of relevant hypotheses, coupled with rigorous planning of sampling and analyses, so that reliable answers are available to regulators and managers.  相似文献   

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Understanding the ways in which human environmental modifications affect biodiversity is a key challenge in conservation planning, pest control and evolutionary ecology. Parasitoid communities, particularly those associated with agricultural pests, may be susceptible to such modifications. We document here changes in the larval parasitoid communities of Ostrinia nubilalis--the main pest of maize--and its sibling species O. scapulalis, based on two historical datasets, one collected from 1921-1928 and the other from 2001-2005. Each of these datasets encompasses several years and large geographical areas and was based on several thousands/millions of host larvae. The 80-year interval between the two datasets was marked by a decrease in O. nubilalis parasitism to about two thirds its initial level, mostly due to a decrease in the rate of parasitism by hymenopterans. However, a well balanced loss and gain of species ensured that species richness remained stable. Conversely, O. scapulalis displayed stable rates of parasitism over this period, with a decline in the species richness of its parasitoid community. Rates of parasitism and species richness in regions colonized by O. nubilalis during the 1950s were one half to one third those in regions displaying long-term colonisation by this pest. During the recent human activity-driven expansion of its range, O. nubilalis has neither captured native parasitoids nor triggered parasite spill back or spill over.  相似文献   

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