Quantitative genetic variation for thermal performance curves within and among natural populations of Drosophila serrata

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) provide a powerful framework for studying the evolution of continuous reaction norms and for testing hypotheses of thermal adaptation. Although featured heavily in comparative studies, the framework has been comparatively underutilized for quantitative genetic tests of thermal adaptation. We assayed the distribution of genetic (co)variance for TPC (locomotor activity) within and among three natural populations of Drosophila serrata and performed replicated tests of two hypotheses of thermal adaptation--that 'hotter is better' and that a generalist-specialist trade-off underpins the evolution of thermal sensitivity. We detected significant genetic variance within, and divergence among, populations. The 'hotter is better' hypothesis was not supported as the genetic correlations between optimal temperature (T(opt)) and maximum performance (z(max)) were consistently negative. A pattern of variation consistent with a generalist-specialist trade-off was detected within populations and divergence among populations indicated that performance curves were narrower and had higher optimal temperatures in the warmer, but less variable tropical population.     

Integrating phylogeography and physiology reveals divergence of thermal traits between central and peripheral lineages of tropical rainforest lizards

Tropical ectotherms are regarded as being especially threatened by global warming, but the extent to which populations vary in key thermal physiological traits is little known. In general, central and peripheral populations are most likely to differ where divergent selection pressures are un-opposed by gene flow. This leads to the prediction that persistent and long-isolated lineages in peripheral regions, as revealed by phylogeography, may differ physiologically from larger centrally located lineages. We test this prediction through comparative assays of critical thermal limits (minimum and maximum critical thermal limits, CT(min), CT(max)) and optimal performance parameters (B80 and T(opt)) across central and peripheral lineages of three species of ground-dwelling skinks endemic to the rainforests of northeast Australia. Peripheral lineages show significantly increased optimal performance temperatures (T(opt)) relative to central populations as well as elevated CT(min), with the latter trait also inversely related to elevation. CT(max) did not vary between central and peripheral lineages, but was higher in a forest edge species than in the forest interior species. The results suggest that long-isolated populations in peripheral rainforests harbour genotypes that confer resilience to future warming, emphasizing the need to protect these as well as larger central habitats.     

Macroecological Patterns of Climatic Niche Breadth Variation in Lacertid Lizards

Measuring climatic niche position and breadth may help to determine where species can occur over space and time. Using GIS-based and phylogenetic comparative methods, we investigated global patterns of variation in climatic niche breadth in lacertid lizards to test the following three hypotheses about climatic niche widths. First, does a species' temperature or precipitation niche breadth relate to its temperature or precipitation niche position(the mean value of annual mean temperature or annual precipitation across sampled localities in the range of each species)? Second, are there trade-offs between a species' temperature niche breadth and precipitation niche breadth? Third, does a species' temperature or precipitation niche breadth relate to altitude or latitude? We expect that:(1) species distributed in cold regions are specialized for low-temperature environments(i.e. narrow niche breadth center around low temperatures);(2) a negative relationship between species niche breadth on temperature and precipitation axes according to the tradeoff hypothesis(i.e. species that tolerate a broad range of precipitation regimes cannot also tolerate a broad range of temperatures);(3) precipitation niche breadth decreases with altitude or latitude, whereas temperature climatic niche breadth increases with altitude or latitude. Based on the analytical results we found that:(1) temperature niche breadth and position are negatively related, while precipitation niche breadth and position are positively related;(2) there is no trade-off between temperature and precipitation niche breadths; and (3) temperature niche breadth and latitude/altitude are positively related, but precipitation niche breadth and latitude/altitude are not significantly related. Our results show many similarities with previous studies on climatic niche widths reported for amphibians and lizards, which provide further evidence that such macroecological patterns of variation in climatic niche breadths may be widespread.     

Local thermal adaptation and local temperature regimes drive the performance of a parasitic helminth under climate change: The case of Marshallagia marshalli from wild ungulates

Across a species' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature-sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free-living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life-cycle-based host–parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location-specific climate-change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location-specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location-specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site-specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections.     

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower

Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, “leading” edges of species’ ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a 7-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species’ geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate.     

Growth and development of an invasive forest insect under current and future projected temperature regimes

Temperature and its impact on fitness are fundamental for understanding range shifts and population dynamics under climate change. Geographic climate heterogeneity, behavioral and physiological plasticity, and thermal adaptation to local climates make predicting the responses of species to climate change complex. Using larvae from seven geographically distinct wild populations in the eastern United States of the non‐native forest pest Lymantria dispar dispar (L.), we conducted a simulated reciprocal transplant experiment in environmental chambers using six custom temperature regimes representing contemporary conditions near the southern and northern extremes of the US invasion front and projections under two climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Larval growth and development rates increased with climate warming compared with current thermal regimes and tended to be greater for individuals originally sourced from southern rather than northern populations. Although increases in growth and development rates with warming varied somewhat by region of the source population, there was not strong evidence of local adaptation, southern populations tended to outperform those from northern populations in all thermal regimes. Our study demonstrates the utility of simulating thermal regimes under climate change in environmental chambers and emphasizes how the impacts from future increases in temperature can vary based on geographic differences in climate‐related performance among populations.     

Adaptation of malate dehydrogenase to environmental temperature variability in two populations of Potentilla glandulosa Lindl.

Summary The responses of the kinetic properties of malate dehydrogenase to environmental temperature variability were compared for two populations of Potentilla glandulosa (Rosaceae). The two populations are native to regions of contrasting climates, with the inland population experiencing a high level of temperature variability during growth and the coastal populaton a low level of temperature variability. The substrate binding ability, as measured by apparent K _m of both populations was relatively insensitive to assay temperature (Q ₁₀<2.0) over the range of temperatures likely to be encountered during growth. The breadth of this thermal optimum was different for the two populations with the K _m of the inland plants exhibiting relative temperature insensitivity over a much wider range of temperatures than the K _m of the coastal plants. There was no difference between the two populations in the thermal stability of MDH activity.     

A framework for elucidating the temperature dependence of fitness

Climate warming is predicted to cause large-scale extinctions, particularly of ectothermic species. A striking difference between tropical and temperate ectotherms is that tropical species experience a mean habitat temperature that is closer to the temperature at which fitness is maximized (T(opt)) and an upper temperature limit for survival (T(max)) that is closer to T(opt) than do temperate species. Thus, even a small increase in environmental temperature could put tropical ectotherms at high risk of extinction, whereas temperate ectotherms have a wider temperature cushion. Although this pattern is widely observed, the mechanisms that produce it are not well understood. Here we develop a mathematical framework to partition the temperature response of fitness into its components (fecundity, mortality, and development) and test model predictions with data for insects. We find that fitness declines at high temperatures because the temperature responses of fecundity and mortality act in opposite ways: fecundity decreases with temperature when temperatures exceed the optimal range, whereas mortality continues to increase. The proximity of T(opt) to T(max) depends on how the temperature response of development mediates the interaction between fecundity and mortality. When development is highly temperature sensitive, mortality exceeds reproduction only after fecundity has started to decline with temperature, which causes fitness to decline rapidly to zero when temperatures exceed T(opt). The model correctly predicts empirically observed fitness-temperature relationships in insects from different latitudes. It also suggests explanations for the widely reported phenological shifts in many ectotherms and the latitudinal differences in fitness responses.     

Conclusions about niche expansion in introduced Impatiens walleriana populations depend on method of analysis

Determining the degree to which climate niches are conserved across plant species' native and introduced ranges is valuable to developing successful strategies to limit the introduction and spread of invasive plants, and also has important ecological and evolutionary implications. Here, we test whether climate niches differ between native and introduced populations of Impatiens walleriana, globally one of the most popular horticultural species. We use approaches based on both raw climate data associated with occurrence points and ecological niche models (ENMs) developed with Maxent. We include comparisons of climate niche breadth in both geographic and environmental spaces, taking into account differences in available habitats between the distributional areas. We find significant differences in climate envelopes between native and introduced populations when comparing raw climate variables, with introduced populations appearing to expand into wetter and cooler climates. However, analyses controlling for differences in available habitat in each region do not indicate expansion of climate niches. We therefore cannot reject the hypothesis that observed differences in climate envelopes reflect only the limited environments available within the species' native range in East Africa. Our results suggest that models built from only native range occurrence data will not provide an accurate prediction of the potential for invasiveness if applied to areas containing a greater range of environmental combinations, and that tests of niche expansion may overestimate shifts in climate niches if they do not control carefully for environmental differences between distributional areas.     

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071–2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5‐EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4‐GEM2‐ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.     

Changes in habitat specificity of species at their climatic range boundaries

Species are thought to have more restricted niches towards their range boundaries, although this has rarely been quantified systematically. We analysed transect data for 41 butterfly species along climatic gradients within Britain and show that 71% of species have broader niches at sites with milder winters. Shifts in habitat associations are considerable across most species' ranges; averaged across all 41 species, we estimate that if 26% of individuals were associated with the favoured habitat on the species' warmest transect, then 70% of individuals would be confined to this habitat on the species' coldest transect. Species with more southerly distributions in Britain showed the greatest changes in their habitat associations. We conclude that geographic variation in realized niche breadth is common and relatively large, especially near range boundaries, and should be taken into account in conserving species under changing climates.     

Correlates of range size and dispersal ability: a comparative analysis of sphingid moths from the Indo-Australian tropics

Aim  We tested various species-level traits for their potential to explain species' range sizes and dispersal abilities.
Location  Southeast Asia and Malay Archipelago.
Methods  We used published maps of geographical distribution estimates for sphingid moths to calculate range areas and classify species according to their dispersion across (present or historical) water straits in the Malay Archipelago. We tested forewing length (FWL), wing load (thorax width/FWL), presence or absence of a functional proboscis (i.e. adult feeding), larval diet breadth and larval diet composition for univariate correlations with range size and inter-island dispersion. We used multivariate, phylogenetically controlled models to test for independent effects of parameters.
Results  Range size correlated strongly with larval diet breadth, a result that was also confirmed in the multivariate model. Adult feeding had a significant impact on range sizes only within the multivariate model, but not in the univariate correlation. Dispersal class also correlated with larval diet breadth, but was additionally influenced by forewing length, wing load and larval diet composition. A univariate effect of adult feeding became non-significant in the multivariate, phylogenetically controlled model.
Main conclusions  Larval diet breadth is the best predictor of range size as well as inter-island dispersion, confirming the importance of niche breadth on the geographic ranges of species. A number of other factors are shown to have additional impact on predictions of range size or inter-island dispersal ability. Our analyses cannot determine the causal mechanisms of these correlations, but may stimulate further research on the adaptive significance of traits affecting range size and dispersal in this system.     

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.     

Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States

Shifts in biodiversity and ecological processes in stream ecosystems in response to rapid climate change will depend on how numerically and functionally dominant aquatic insect species respond to changes in stream temperature and hydrology. Across 253 minimally perturbed streams in eight ecoregions in the western USA, we modeled the distribution of 88 individual insect taxa in relation to existing combinations of maximum summer temperature, mean annual streamflow, and their interaction. We used a heat map approach along with downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of warming and streamflow change to estimate site‐specific extirpation likelihood for each taxon, allowing estimation of whole‐community change in streams across these ecoregions. Conservative climate change projections indicate a 30–40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and 10–20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions where taxa are relatively buffered from projected warming and hydrologic change. Differential vulnerability of taxa with key functional foraging roles in processing basal resources suggests that climate change has the potential to modify stream trophic structure and function (e.g., alter rates of detrital decomposition and algal consumption), particularly in warmer and drier ecoregions. We show that streamflow change is equally as important as warming in projected risk to stream community composition and that the relative threat posed by these two fundamental drivers varies across ecoregions according to projected gradients of temperature and hydrologic change. Results also suggest that direct human modification of streams through actions such as water abstraction is likely to further exacerbate loss of taxa and ecosystem alteration, especially in drying climates. Management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on stream ecosystems or to proactively adapt to them will require regional calibration, due to geographic variation in insect sensitivity and in exposure to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change.     

Individualistic vs community modelling of species distributions under climate change

Studies investigating the consequences of future climate changes on species distributions usually start with the assumption that species respond to climate changes in an individualistic fashion. This assumption has led researchers to use bioclimate envelope models that use present climate-range relationships to characterize species' limits of tolerance to climate, and then apply climate-change scenarios to enable projections of altered species distributions. However, there are techniques that combine climate variables together with information on the composition of assemblages to enable projections that are expected to mimic community dynamics. Here, we compare, for the first time, the performance of GLM (generalized linear model) and CQO (canonical quadratic ordination; a type of community-based GLM) for projecting distributions of species under climate change scenarios. We found that projections from these two methods varied both in terms of accuracy (GLM providing generally more accurate projections than CQO) and in the broad diversity patterns yielded (higher species richness values projected with CQO). Model outputs were also affected by species-specific traits, such as species range size and species geographical positions, supporting the view that methods are sensitive to different degrees of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. This study reveals differences in projections between individual- and community-based approaches that require further scrutiny, but it does not find support for unsupervised use community-based models for investigating climate change impacts on species distributions. Reasons for this lack of support are discussed.     

Is there a trade-off between peak performance and performance breadth across temperatures for aerobic scope in teleost fishes?

The physiology and behaviour of ectotherms are strongly influenced by environmental temperature. A general hypothesis is that for performance traits, such as those related to growth, metabolism or locomotion, species face a trade-off between being a thermal specialist or a thermal generalist, implying a negative correlation between peak performance and performance breadth across a range of temperatures. Focusing on teleost fishes, we performed a phylogenetically informed comparative analysis of the relationship between performance peak and breadth for aerobic scope (AS), which represents whole-animal capacity available to carry out simultaneous oxygen-demanding processes (e.g. growth, locomotion, reproduction) above maintenance. Literature data for 28 species indicate that peak aerobic capacity is not linked to thermal performance breadth and that other physiological factors affecting thermal tolerance may prevent such a trade-off from emerging. The results therefore suggest that functional links between peak and thermal breadth for AS may not constrain evolutionary responses to environmental changes such as climate warming.     

Temperature Alters Host Genotype-Specific Susceptibility to Chytrid Infection

The cost of parasitism often depends on environmental conditions and host identity. Therefore, variation in the biotic and abiotic environment can have repercussions on both, species-level host-parasite interaction patterns but also on host genotype-specific susceptibility to disease. We exposed seven genetically different but concurrent strains of the diatom Asterionella formosa to one genotype of its naturally co-occurring chytrid parasite Zygorhizidium planktonicum across five environmentally relevant temperatures. We found that the thermal tolerance range of the tested parasite genotype was narrower than that of its host, providing the host with a “cold” and “hot” thermal refuge of very low or no infection. Susceptibility to disease was host genotype-specific and varied with temperature level so that no genotype was most or least resistant across all temperatures. This suggests a role of thermal variation in the maintenance of diversity in disease related traits in this phytoplankton host. The duration and intensity of chytrid parasite pressure on host populations is likely to be affected by the projected changes in temperature patterns due to climate warming both through altering temperature dependent disease susceptibility of the host and, potentially, through en- or disabling thermal host refugia. This, in turn may affect the selective strength of the parasite on the genetic architecture of the host population.     

Relating root structure and anatomy to whole-plant functioning in 14 herbaceous Mediterranean species

This study investigated the relationships between root structure and anatomy and whole-plant functioning in herbaceous species. Fourteen annual and perennial species representative of a Mediterranean old-field succession were grown in monocultures in a common-garden experiment. Whole-plant functioning was assessed by inherent relative growth rate (RGR(max)), measured in standardized conditions, and maximum height (H(max)). Root tissue density (TMD(r)), considered as a major component of root structure, was measured on roots harvested within in-growth cores. Anatomical characteristics were analysed on cross-sectional areas (CSA). TMD(r) was correlated positively with H(max) and negatively with RGR(max). Root CSA explained interspecific variation in H(max) but not that in TMD(r) and RGR(max). Root xylem CSA and xylem proportion in root CSA were positively correlated with TMD(r) and H(max) and negatively with RGR(max). Mean xylem vessel CSA did not account for variations in TMD(r), H(max) and RGR(max). These results suggested that RGR(max) and H(max) are constrained by opposite root structural and anatomical traits, which have potential links with hydraulic conductance, support and longevity.     

Conserved and narrow temperature limits in alpine insects: Thermal tolerance and supercooling points of the ice-crawlers,Grylloblatta (Insecta: Grylloblattodea: Grylloblattidae)

For many terrestrial species, habitat associations and range size are dependent on physiological limits, which in turn may influence large-scale patterns of species diversity. The temperature range experienced by individuals is considered to shape the breadth of the thermal niche, with species occupying temporally and/or geographically stable climates tolerating a narrow temperature range. High-elevation environments experience large temperature fluctuations, with frequent periods below 0 °C, but Grylloblatta (Grylloblattodea: Grylloblattidae) occupy climatically stable microhabitats within this region. Here we test critical thermal limits and supercooling points for five Grylloblatta populations from across a large geographic area, to examine whether the stable microhabitats of this group are associated with a narrow thermal niche and assess their capacity to tolerate cold conditions. Thermal limits are highly conserved in Grylloblatta, despite substantial genetic divergence among populations spanning 1500 m elevation and being separated by over 500 km. Further, Grylloblatta show exceptionally narrow thermal limits compared to other insect taxa with little capacity to improve cold tolerance via plasticity. In contrast, upper thermal limits were significantly depressed by cold acclimation. Grylloblatta maintain coordinated movement until they freeze, and they die upon freezing. Convergence of the critical thermal minima, supercooling point and lower lethal limits point to adaptation to a cold but, importantly, constant thermal environment. These physiological data provide an explanation for the high endemism and patchy distribution of Grylloblatta, which relies on subterranean retreats to accommodate narrow thermal limits. These retreats are currently buffered from temperature fluctuations by snow cover, and a declining snowpack thus places Grylloblatta at risk of exposure to temperatures beyond its tolerance capacity.     

What determines a species' geographical range? Thermal biology and latitudinal range size relationships in European diving beetles (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae)

1.  The geographical range sizes of individual species vary considerably in extent, although the factors underlying this variation remain poorly understood, and could include a number of ecological and evolutionary processes. A favoured explanation for range size variation is that this result from differences in fundamental niche breadths, suggesting a key role for physiology in determining range size, although to date empirical tests of these ideas remain limited.
2.  Here we explore relationships between thermal physiology and biogeography, whilst controlling for possible differences in dispersal ability and phylogenetic relatedness, across 14 ecologically similar congeners which differ in geographical range extent; European diving beetles of the genus Deronectes Sharp (Coleoptera, Dytiscidae). Absolute upper and lower temperature tolerance and acclimatory abilities are determined for populations of each species, following acclimation in the laboratory.
3.  Absolute thermal tolerance range is the best predictor of both species' latitudinal range extent and position, differences in dispersal ability (based on wing size) apparently being less important in this group. In addition, species' northern and southern range limits are related to their tolerance of low and high temperatures respectively. In all cases, absolute temperature tolerances, rather than acclimatory abilities are the best predictors of range parameters, whilst the use of independent contrasts suggested that species' thermal acclimation abilities may also relate to biogeography, although increased acclimatory ability does not appear to be associated with increased range size.
4.  Our study is the first to provide empirical support for a relationship between thermal physiology and range size variation in widespread and restricted species, conducted using the same experimental design, within a phylogenetically and ecologically controlled framework.