Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate‐mediated range shifts

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad‐scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment‐only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment‐only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate forecasts lead to ineffective prioritization of conservation activities and potentially to avoidable species extinctions.     

Climate tolerance and interspecific variation in geographic range size

The fact that climate influences the continental-scale distributions of species is one of the central tenets of ecology and biogeography. Equally elemental is that species exhibit enormous variation in geographic range size, with most occupying comparatively small areas. The degree to which climate can account for this variation remains unclear. Here, I test three alternative climate-based hypotheses for variation in range size using a large sample of tree and shrub species native to North America north of Mexico. I show that the lowest value of January average daily minimum temperature encompassed by a species' geographic range (T(MIN)), representing the 'climate extremes hypothesis', explains almost 80% of the variation in range size. Hypotheses based on seasonality and climate optima find substantially less support. The relationship between range size and T(MIN) does not change across the breadth of latitudes examined, and is general for conifers and hardwoods, and growth form (tree versus shrub). Differential freezing resistance gains support as the mechanism underlying interspecific variation in range size: using 35 species for which data were available, both T(MIN) and range size are shown to be strongly correlated with measures of freezing resistance.     

Translating crustacean biological responses from CO2 bubbling experiments into population-level predictions

Many studies of animal responses to ocean acidification focus on uniformly conditioned age cohorts that lack complexities typically found in wild populations. These studies have become the primary data source for predicting higher level ecological effects, but the roles of intraspecific interactions in re-shaping biological, demographic and evolutionary responses are not commonly considered. To explore this problem, I assessed responses in the mysid Americamysis bahia to bubbling of CO₂-enriched and un-enriched air into the seawater supply in flow-through aquariums. I conducted one experiment using isolated age cohorts and a separate experiment using intact populations. The seawater supply was continuously input from Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island, USA). The 28-day cohort study was maintained without resource or spatial limitations, whereas the 5-month population study consisted of stage-structured populations that were allowed to self-regulate. These differences are common features of experiments and were intentionally retained to demonstrate the effect of methodological approaches on perceptions of effect mechanisms. The CO₂ treatment reduced neonate abundance in the cohort experiment (24% reduction due to a mean pH difference of −0.27) but not in the population experiment, where effects were small and were strongest for adult and stage 1 survival (3% change due to a mean pH difference of −0.25). I also found evidence of competition in the population experiment, further complicating relationships with cohort experiments. These results point to limitations of standard cohort tests. Such experiments should be complimented by studies of intact populations where responses may be affected by evolution, acclimation, and competition.     

Microsatellite variation in cod Gadus morhua throughout its geographic range

Previous genetic studies using neutral markers such as allozymes, mtDNA and minisatellite loci have demonstrated varying amounts of population structure in cod Gadus morhua throughout the Atlantic. Microsatellite loci, which are potentially the most informative of presently available neutral genetic markers, have been applied extensively within western and eastern Atlantic areas but not on a range-wide basis. In the present study, six microsatellite DNA loci were used to screen cod samples from nine locations throughout the geographic range from the Scotian Shelf in the West Atlantic to the Barents and Baltic Seas in the east. Overall F _ST value was 0·03 ( P = < 0·001) across all samples. Statistically significant population differences over all loci combined were evident between more geographically distant samples, using either heterogeneity tests or F _ST analysis, with at least one locus showing significant differences between all samples (prior to Bonferroni correction). A significant correlation was observed between genetic and geographical distance, suggesting a higher level of historical and contemporary gene flow between adjacent populations than more distant populations. Samples from either end of the geographic range (Scotian Shelf and Baltic Sea) were particularly distinct when analysed using the STRUCTURE programme and also showed a high level of self-assignment when individuals of either the Scotian Shelf or Baltic Sea were tested against the entire data set. The present microsatellite study demonstrates a high level of geographic population structure between the western Atlantic, middle and eastern Atlantic and Baltic Sea, and thus, the findings should be useful in devising overall management and conservation strategies for the species.     

Incorporating phylogeographic information in alien bird distribution models increases geographic extent but not accuracy of predictions

Biological Invasions - Species distribution models (SDM) have been proposed as valuable first screening tools for predicting species responses to new environmental conditions. SDMs are usually...     

The performance of range maps and species distribution models representing the geographic variation of species richness at different resolutions

Aim The method used to generate hypotheses about species distributions, in addition to spatial scale, may affect the biodiversity patterns that are then observed. We compared the performance of range maps and MaxEnt species distribution models at different spatial resolutions by examining the degree of similarity between predicted species richness and composition against observed values from well‐surveyed cells (WSCs). Location Mexico. Methods We estimated amphibian richness distributions at five spatial resolutions (from 0.083° to 2°) by overlaying 370 individual range maps or MaxEnt predictions, comparing the similarity of the spatial patterns and correlating predicted values with the observed values for WSCs. Additionally, we looked at species composition and assessed commission and omission errors associated with each method. Results MaxEnt predictions reveal greater geographic differences in richness between species rich and species poor regions than the range maps did at the five resolutions assessed. Correlations between species richness values estimated by either of the two procedures and the observed values from the WSCs increased with decreasing resolution. The slopes of the regressions between the predicted and observed values indicate that MaxEnt overpredicts observed species richness at all of the resolutions used, while range maps underpredict them, except at the finest resolution. Prediction errors did not vary significantly between methods at any resolution and tended to decrease with decreasing resolution. The accuracy of both procedures was clearly different when commission and omission errors were examined separately. Main conclusions Despite the congruent increase in the geographic richness patterns obtained from both procedures as resolution decreases, the maps created with these methods cannot be used interchangeably because of notable differences in the species compositions they report.     

Incorporating intraspecific variation into species distribution models improves distribution predictions,but cannot predict species traits for a wide-spread plant species

The most common approach to predicting how species ranges and ecological functions will shift with climate change is to construct correlative species distribution models (SDMs). These models use a species’ climatic distribution to determine currently suitable areas for the species and project its potential distribution under future climate scenarios. A core, rarely tested, assumption of SDMs is that all populations will respond equivalently to climate. Few studies have examined this assumption, and those that have rarely dissect the reasons for intraspecific differences. Focusing on the arctic-alpine cushion plant Silene acaulis, we compared predictive accuracy from SDMs constructed using the species’ full global distribution with composite predictions from separate SDMs constructed using subpopulations defined either by genetic or habitat differences. This is one of the first studies to compare multiple ways of constructing intraspecific-level SDMs with a species-level SDM. We also examine the contested relationship between relative probability of occurrence and species performance or ecological function, testing if SDM output can predict individual performance (plant size) and biotic interactions (facilitation). We found that both genetic- and habitat-informed SDMs are considerably more accurate than a species-level SDM, and that the genetic model substantially differs from and outperforms the habitat model. While SDMs have been used to infer population performance and possibly even biotic interactions, in our system these relationships were extremely weak. Our results indicate that individual subpopulations may respond differently to climate, although we discuss and explore several alternative explanations for the superior performance of intraspecific-level SDMs. We emphasize the need to carefully examine how to best define intraspecific-level SDMs as well as how potential genetic, environmental, or sampling variation within species ranges can critically affect SDM predictions. We urge caution in inferring population performance or biotic interactions from SDM predictions, as these often-assumed relationships are not supported in our study.     

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean‐warming hotspot

Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean‐warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small‐ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.     

Lack of genetic variation prevents adaptation at the geographic range margin in a damselfly

What limits a species' distribution in the absence of physical barriers? Genetic load due to asymmetric gene flow and the absence of genetic variation due to lack of gene flow are hypothesized to constrain adaptation to novel environments in marginal populations, preventing range expansion. Here, we examined the genetic structure and geographic variation in morphological traits in two damselflies (Ischnura asiatica and I. senegalensis) along a latitudinal gradient in Japan, which is the distribution centre of I. asiatica and the northern limit of I. senegalensis. Genomewide genetic analyses found a loss of genetic diversity at the edge of distribution in I. senegalensis but consistently high diversity in I. asiatica. Gene flow was asymmetric in a south–north direction in both species. Although body size and wing loading showed decreasing latitudinal clines (smaller in north) in I. asiatica in Japan, increasing latitudinal clines (larger in north) in these phenotypic markers were observed in I. senegalensis, particularly near the northern boundary, which coincided well with the location where genetic diversity began a sharp decline. In ectothermic animals, increasing latitudinal cline in these traits was suggested to be established when they failed to adapt to thermal gradient. Therefore, our findings support the possibility that a lack of genetic variation rather than geneflow swamping is responsible for the constraint of adaptation at the margin of geographic distribution.     

Population structure and pattern of geographic variation in Muscari comosum along its range of distribution

Genetic variation for six loci in 37 populations of Muscari comosum L. (Liliaeeae) is surveyed. One locus is monomorphic and identical in all the populations. The remaining loci are polymorphic. Although the GOT-1 and GOT-3 loci show a pronounced heterozygote deficit explained by selection acting upon these loci (or on genes linked to them), the remaining loci nearly conform to Hardy-Weinberg proportions. The overall pattern shows a low level of heterozygote deficit (F_IS=0.08) explained by the mixed mating system. The organization of genetic variation shows a low level of interpopulation differentiation (F_ST or G_ST=0.04). At the same time, autocorrelation analysis shows no pattern of geographical variation. It is concluded that gene flow and selection interact to produce the overall pattern of genetic variation.     

Evolutionary shifts to self‐fertilisation restricted to geographic range margins in North American Arabidopsis lyrata

Cross‐fertilisation predominates in eukaryotes, but shifts to self‐fertilisation are common and ecologically and evolutionarily important. Reproductive assurance under outcross gamete limitation is one eco‐evolutionary process held responsible for the shift to selfing. Although small effective population size is a situation where selfing plants could theoretically benefit from reproductive assurance, empirical tests of the role of population size are rare. Here, we show that selfing evolved repeatedly at range margins, where historical demographic processes produced low effective population sizes. Outcrossing populations of North American Arabidopsis lyrata have low genetic diversity at geographic margins, with a signature of post‐glacial range expansion in the north and rear‐edge isolation in the south. Selfing populations occur at the margins of two genetic groups and never in their interior. These results corroborate small effective population size as the promoter of self‐fertilisation and have important implications for our understanding of species turnover, range limits and range dynamics.     

Incorporating density dependence into the oviposition preference-offspring performance hypothesis

1. Although theory predicts a positive relationship between oviposition preferences and the developmental performance of offspring, the strength of this relationship may depend not only on breeding site quality, but also on the complex interactions between environmental heterogeneity and density-dependent processes. Environmental heterogeneity may not only alter the strength of density dependence, but may also fundamentally alter density-dependent relationships and the preference-performance relationship. 2. Here I present results from a series of field experiments testing the effects of environmental heterogeneity and density-dependent feedback on offspring performance in tree-hole mosquitoes. Specifically, I asked: (i) how do oviposition activity, patterns of colonization and larval density differ among habitats and among oviposition sites with different resources; and (ii) how is performance influenced by the density of conspecifics, the type of resource in the oviposition site, and the type of habitat in which the oviposition site is located? 3. Performance did not differ among habitats at low offspring densities, but was higher in deciduous forest habitats than in evergreen forest habitats at high densities. Oviposition activity and larval densities were also higher in deciduous forests, suggesting a weak preference for these habitats. 4. The observed divergence of fitness among habitats with increasing density may select for consistent but weak preferences for deciduous habitats if regional abundances vary temporally. This would generate a negative preference-performance relationship when population densities are low, but a positive relationship when population densities are high. 5. This study demonstrates that failure to recognize that fitness differences among habitats may themselves be density-dependent may bias our assumptions about the ecological and evolutionary processes determining oviposition preferences in natural systems.     

Interacting environmental mosaics drive geographic variation in mussel performance and predation vulnerability

Although theory suggests geographic variation in species' performance is determined by multiple niche parameters, little consideration has been given to the spatial structure of interacting stressors that may shape local and regional vulnerability to global change. Here, we use spatially explicit mosaics of carbonate chemistry, food availability and temperature spanning 1280 km of coastline to test whether persistent, overlapping environmental mosaics mediate the growth and predation vulnerability of a critical foundation species, the mussel Mytilus californianus. We find growth was highest and predation vulnerability was lowest in dynamic environments with frequent exposure to low pH seawater and consistent food. In contrast, growth was lowest and predation vulnerability highest when exposure to low pH seawater was decoupled from high food availability, or in exceptionally warm locations. These results illustrate how interactions among multiple drivers can cause unexpected, yet persistent geographic mosaics of species performance, interactions and vulnerability to environmental change.     

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower

Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, “leading” edges of species’ ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a 7-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species’ geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate.     

Linking species thermal tolerance to elevational range shifts in upland dung beetles

Climate warming has been proposed as the main cause of the recent range shifts seen in many species. Although species' thermal tolerances are thought to play a key role in determining responses to climate change, especially in ectotherms, empirical evidence is still limited. We investigate the connection between species' thermal tolerances, elevational range and shifts in the lower elevational limit of dung beetle species (Coleoptera, Aphodiidea) in an upland region in the northwest of England. We measured thermal tolerances in the laboratory, and used current and historical distribution data to test specific hypotheses about the area's three dominant species, particularly the species most likely to suffer from warming: Agollinus lapponum. We found marked differences between species in their minimum and maximum thermal tolerance and in their elevational range and patterns of abundance. Overall, differences in thermal limits among species matched the abundance patterns along the elevation gradient expected if distributions were constrained by climate. Agollinus lapponum abundance increased with elevation and this species showed lower maximum and minimum thermal limits than Acrossus depressus, for which abundance declined with elevation. Consistent with lower tolerance to high temperature, we recorded an uphill retreat of the low elevation limit of A. lapponum (177 m over 57 yr) in line with the increase in summer temperature observed in the region over the same period. Moreover, this species has been replaced at low and mid‐elevations by the other two warm‐tolerant species (A. depressus and Agrilinus ater). Our results provide empirical evidence that species' thermal tolerance constrains elevational ranges and contributes to explain the observed responses to climate warming. A mechanistic understanding of how climate change directly affects species, such as the one presented here, will provide a robust base to inform predictions of how individual species and whole assemblages may change in the future.     

Intraspecific geographic variation in thermal limits and acclimatory capacity in a wide distributed endemic frog

Intraspecific variation in physiological traits and the standard metabolic rate (SMR) is common in widely distributed ectotherms since populations at contrasting latitudes experiences different thermal conditions. The climatic variability hypothesis (CVH) states that populations at higher latitudes presents higher acclimation capacity than those at lower latitudes, given the wider range of climatic variability they experience. The endemic four-eyed frog, Pleurodema thaul is widely distributed in Chile. We examined the variation in maximum and minimum critical temperatures (CT_max and CT_min), preferred temperature (T_Pref), SMR and their acclimatory capacity in two populations from the northern and center of its distribution. All the traits are higher in the warmer population. The capacity for acclimation varies between traits and, with the exception of CT_max and T_Pref, it is similar between populations. This pattern could be explained by the higher daily thermal variability in desert environments, that increases plasticity to the levels found in the high latitude population. However, we found low acclimatory capacity in all physiological traits, of only about 3% for CT_min, 10% for CT_max and T_Pref, and 1% for SMR. Thus, despite the fact that Pleurodema thaul possess some ability to adjust thermal tolerances in response to changing thermal conditions, this acclimatory capacity seems to be unable to prevent substantial buffering when body temperatures rise. The low acclimatory capacity found for P. thaul suggests that this species use behavioral rather than physiological adjustments to compensate for environmental variation, by exploiting available micro-environments with more stable thermal conditions.     

Understanding bias in geographic range size estimates

Aim Estimates of geographic range size derived from natural history museum specimens are probably biased for many species. We aim to determine how bias in these estimates relates to range size. Location We conducted computer simulations based on herbarium specimen records from localities ranging from the southern United States to northern Argentina. Methods We used theory on the sampling distribution of the mean and variance to develop working hypotheses about how range size, defined as area of occupancy (AOO), was related to the inter‐specific distribution of: (1) mean collection effort per area across the range of a species (MC); (2) variance in collection effort per area across the range of a species (VC); and (3) proportional bias in AOO estimates (PBias: the difference between the expected value of the estimate of AOO and true AOO, divided by true AOO). We tested predictions from these hypotheses using computer simulations based on a dataset of more than 29,000 herbarium specimen records documenting occurrences of 377 plant species in the tribe Bignonieae (Bignoniaceae). Results The working hypotheses predicted that the mean of the inter‐specific distribution of MC, VC and PBias were independent of AOO, but that the respective variance and skewness decreased with increasing AOO. Computer simulations supported all but one prediction: the variance of the inter‐specific distribution of VC did not decrease with increasing AOO. Main conclusions Our results suggest that, despite an invariant mean, the dispersion and symmetry of the inter‐specific distribution of PBias decreases as AOO increases. As AOO increased, range size was less severely underestimated for a large proportion of simulated species. However, as AOO increased, range size estimates having extremely low bias were less common.