干旱高温及高浓度CO2复合胁迫对冬小麦生长的影响

研究了不同CO₂浓度、不同温度和水分条件及其组合对冬小麦产量、光合及水分的影响,以阐明气候变化对冬小麦的影响.结果表明: CO₂浓度升高对冬小麦光合速率没有影响,而升温和干旱均使光合速率显著下降.升高CO₂浓度与温度对冬小麦旗叶水分条件没有影响,干旱胁迫下旗叶相对含水量显著降低,而升温与干旱同时发生可降低旗叶水势.气温、CO₂浓度升高以及干旱胁迫共同作用下,冬小麦光合速率和旗叶水分条件显著降低,产量下降41.4%.CO₂浓度升高使冬小麦增产21.2%,温度升高使产量降低12.3%,CO₂浓度和温度同时升高对产量没有影响,干旱胁迫下产量下降程度更大.未来气候变化情景下,保持较高的土壤水分含量是减少气候变暖危害的重要手段.
     

干旱高温及高浓度CO2复合胁迫对冬小麦生长的影响

研究了不同CO₂浓度、不同温度和水分条件及其组合对冬小麦产量、光合及水分的影响,以阐明气候变化对冬小麦的影响.结果表明: CO₂浓度升高对冬小麦光合速率没有影响,而升温和干旱均使光合速率显著下降.升高CO₂浓度与温度对冬小麦旗叶水分条件没有影响,干旱胁迫下旗叶相对含水量显著降低,而升温与干旱同时发生可降低旗叶水势.气温、CO₂浓度升高以及干旱胁迫共同作用下,冬小麦光合速率和旗叶水分条件显著降低,产量下降41.4%.CO₂浓度升高使冬小麦增产21.2%,温度升高使产量降低12.3%,CO₂浓度和温度同时升高对产量没有影响,干旱胁迫下产量下降程度更大.未来气候变化情景下,保持较高的土壤水分含量是减少气候变暖危害的重要手段.
     

干旱、CO2和温度升高对春小麦光合、蒸发蒸腾及水分利用效率的影响

研究了干旱、CO₂浓度和温度升高对春小麦生育期、光合速率(P_n)、蒸发蒸腾(ET)及水分利用效率(WUE)的影响.结果表明,大气CO₂浓度升高(550、700μmol·mol^-1)虽可延长抽穗成熟期,但高温(日平均温度高于正常日平均温度约4.8℃)对生育期的影响远大于高CO₂影响,使得高CO₂、高温下抽穗成熟期缩短,且种子提前萌发;CO₂浓度升高和高温共同作用使各水分处理的小麦光合增强、气孔阻力增加、叶片水平的水分利用效率(WUEl)和群体水平的水分利用效率(WUE)增大,但对蒸腾速率影响不显著.对蒸发蒸腾的影响因不同的土壤水分而不同,在高(田间持水量的75%～85%)、中(田间持水量的55%～65%)水分条件下,高温和高CO₂使蒸发蒸腾增加,而在低水分条件(田间持水量的35%～45%)下,高温和高CO₂使蒸发蒸腾减少.     

CO2浓度升高、增温和冬小麦种植对土壤酶活性的影响

研究农田土壤酶活性对CO₂浓度升高和增温的响应,可为气候变化背景下农田生态系统养分管理提供科学依据。本研究在人工模拟气候室进行盆栽控制试验,设置了4种气候情景,分别为对照(CK,CO₂浓度400 μmol·mol^-1+正常环境温度)、CO₂浓度升高(ECO₂,CO₂浓度800 μmol·mol^-1+正常环境温度)、增温(ET,CO₂浓度400 μmol·mol^-1+增温4 ℃)及CO₂浓度和温度均升高(ECO₂+T,CO₂浓度800 μmol·mol^-1+增温4 ℃),研究有、无冬小麦生长下β--葡萄糖苷酶(βG)、β-N-乙酰葡糖苷酶(NAG)、碱性磷酸单脂酶(ALP)和多酚氧化酶(PPO)4种土壤酶活性在冬小麦拔节期(JS)、开花期(AS)、灌浆期(FS)和成熟期(MS)对CO₂浓度升高和增温的响应。结果表明:无冬小麦生长下,ECO₂与CK间4种土壤酶活性差异不显著,而ET和ECO₂+T处理对4种土壤酶活性有显著抑制作用。有冬小麦生长条件下,与CK相比,ECO₂和ECO₂+T处理对4种土壤酶活性均无显著影响;ET处理对土壤ALP和PPO活性有显著影响;ECO₂+T与ET间4种土壤酶活性有显著差异,与ET相比,ECO₂+T处理的土壤βG活性在JS期显著增加,NAG活性在JS期显著降低,ALP活性在AS和FS期显著增加,PPO活性在JS期显著降低,而在AS期显著增加。CO₂浓度升高与增温的交互作用在有、无冬小麦生长下均对土壤NAG和ALP活性有显著影响;无冬小麦生长下,增温和试验时段的交互作用对4种土壤酶活性有显著影响,而在有冬小麦生长下,增温和生育期的交互作用仅对ALP和PPO活性有显著影响;CO₂浓度升高、增温与试验时段的交互作用在无冬小麦生长下对土壤βG、ALP和PPO活性有显著影响,而在有冬小麦生长下CO₂浓度升高、增温与生育期对土壤NAG、ALP和PPO活性有显著影响。冬小麦生长对土壤βG、NAG和ALP活性在前两个生育期(JS+AS期)表现为显著抑制作用,在后两个生育期(FS+MS期)表现为显著促进作用,对土壤PPO活性在全生育期均表现为显著抑制作用。总体上,CO₂浓度升高对冬小麦土壤酶活性的影响不显著,而CO₂浓度与温度均升高对冬小麦土壤酶活性的影响在不同生育期因土壤酶种类不同而不同;此外,有、无冬小麦条件下4种土壤酶活性对CO₂浓度升高与增温的交互作用响应程度不一。     

2020-2050年CO2施肥效应促进全球陆地生态系统碳吸收

CO₂施肥效应是全球变绿的主要原因,随着大气中CO₂浓度的持续增加,预估未来气候变化条件下,CO₂施肥效应对陆地生态系统的影响对减缓全球气候变化具有重大意义。基于未来气候情景数据和Farquhar模型,并结合生态过程模型BEPS(Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator),定量化研究2020—2050年CO₂施肥效应对全球叶面积指数(LAI)和总初级生产力(GPP)的影响。研究结果显示2020—2050年,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下,CO₂施肥效应导致的LAI年际变化趋势分别为0.002、0.003和0.005 m^-2m^-2a^-1;三个气候情景下CO₂施肥效应对LAI的影响为CO₂每增加0.1%,LAI平均增加约8.1%—9.2%,由此导致GPP对应增加7.9%—14.6%;由CO₂施...     

高CO2浓度、干旱及其互作对不同持绿型小麦幼苗的影响

以小麦持绿型品种‘烟农19'和非持绿型品种‘旱选3号'为试材,在开放式气室(OTC)内设置正常CO₂浓度(370 μmol·mol^-1)和高CO₂浓度(550 μmol·mol^-1),干旱(田间持水量的45%～55%)和灌溉(田间持水量的75%～85%),共4个环境处理,采用盆栽法研究高CO₂浓度、干旱及其互作对不同持绿型小麦幼苗生长性状、生物量积累和生理性状的影响。结果表明: 干旱显著抑制了小麦幼苗的生长发育;高CO₂浓度对小麦幼苗的生长发育有明显的促进作用,对分蘖数的影响更显著,干旱条件下高CO₂浓度使旱选3号和烟农19的分蘖数分别增加了61.0%和42.3%。两种水分条件下,高CO₂浓度显著增加了小麦幼苗的生物量,降低了幼苗叶片过氧化物酶和脯氨酸的含量。干旱条件下,高CO₂浓度表现出更好的“肥效作用”。此外,不同持绿型小麦品种对高CO₂浓度的响应存在差异,旱选3号对CO₂的响应更敏感。因此,在未来气候变化背景下,CO₂浓度升高时可以适当减少田间灌水量,合理利用水资源,还需注意选择适宜的品种。     

大气CO2浓度升高对干旱条件下冬小麦叶片光合适应的影响

大气CO₂浓度升高是全球气候变化的主要特征,但大气CO₂浓度长期升高条件下冬小麦叶片发生光合适应的机制尚不十分清楚。本研究以盆栽冬小麦‘郑麦9023’为试验材料,在人工气候控制室内设置2个CO₂浓度(400和600 μmol·mol^-1)、2个水分条件(田间持水量的80%±5%和55%±5%),测定拔节期和抽穗期的光合特征曲线、叶绿素荧光动力学参数、叶氮含量和收获后的籽粒产量等指标,探讨干旱条件下库源关系改变对叶片光合适应的影响。结果表明: 在小麦拔节期,干旱条件下CO₂浓度升高处理的小麦PSⅡ实际光化学效率没有显著增加,但通过提升最大电子传递速率和电子向光化学方向的传递比例,增强了Rubisco的羧化速率,从而提高了最大净光合速率;在抽穗期,功能叶最大电子传递速率和电子向光化学方向的传递比例虽然较高,但PSⅡ实际光化学转换效率降低,Rubisco羧化速率和丙糖磷酸利用效率下降,以致最大净光合速率降低。干旱条件下,CO₂浓度升高增加了小麦单茎生物量、单穗粒数和穗粒重,降低了不孕小穗数,提高了籽粒产量。土壤干旱条件下,CO₂浓度升高对收获期小麦单茎籽粒产量的促进作用可能主要来自于生长前期的光合产物积累。生长后期光合适应发生的主要原因是功能叶PSⅡ实际光化学转换效率和丙糖磷酸利用效率的降低,而不是最大电子传递速率、光化学方向的电子传递比例和新叶库强的变化。     

未来气候变化对福建省水稻产量影响的模拟

为了科学评价未来气候变化对福建省水稻产量的影响,将福建省划分为3个稻区,选取66个样点,7个代表性品种,以及2种典型浓度路径(中端稳定路径RCP4.5和高端路径RCP8.5),利用BCC_CSM(Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model)气候模式,基于这2种典型浓度路径情景RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway)下的气候预估结果,结合作物生长模型CERES-Rice,分雨养与灌溉两种情形,模拟分析气候变化对水稻生产的影响。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下福建省各站点水稻生育期将明显缩短,生育期内平均温度均有所升高;不考虑CO2肥效作用时,无论早稻、后季稻、单季稻,其产量相对于基准年份均普遍减产,减产幅度不超过12%,其中雨养水稻的减产幅度略高于灌溉水稻;不同情景下水稻产量变化也有所差别,其中RCP8.5情景下水稻的减产幅度明显大于RCP4.5情景;而在考虑CO2肥效作用时,模拟结果比较乐观,各研究站点普遍表现为增产,最大增产幅度可达15.2%。     

CO2浓度增加对半干旱区春小麦生产和水分利用效率的影响

为了解CO₂浓度升高条件下春小麦生产和水分利用效率(WUE)的响应特征,在典型半干旱区定西,利用开顶式气室(OTC)试验平台开展了CO₂浓度增加模拟试验.试验设对照(390 μmol·mol^-1)、480 μmol·mol^-1和570 μmol·mol^-1 3个CO₂浓度.结果表明: CO₂浓度升高使春小麦冠层空气温度小幅上升,10 cm深处的土壤环境温度下降;CO₂浓度增加对春小麦各器官生物量和总生物量都有明显促进作用,在480和570 μmol·mol^-1浓度下,地上干物质量平均增长20.6%和41.5%,总干物质量平均增长19.3%和39.6%.生物量增加主要是由茎叶干物质量增加所致,与生育中期物质生产能力明显增强有关;在两种CO₂浓度处理下,植株根冠比分别降低7.3%和11.8%,CO₂浓度增加对春小麦地上部分干物质积累的贡献大于地下部分;CO₂浓度升高主要通过影响穗粒数来影响最终产量,在480和570 μmol·mol^-1浓度下,小麦产量分别增加了8.9%和19.9%;大气CO₂浓度升高对春小麦光合作用影响的长期效应不明显,随CO₂浓度升高,光合速率显著提高,蒸腾速率降低,蒸发蒸腾量减小.随CO₂浓度升高,叶片、群体和产量3个水平的WUE都增加,其中群体水平的WUE增幅最大,产量水平的WUE增幅最小.     

CO2浓度增加对半干旱区春小麦生产和水分利用效率的影响

为了解CO₂浓度升高条件下春小麦生产和水分利用效率(WUE)的响应特征,在典型半干旱区定西,利用开顶式气室(OTC)试验平台开展了CO₂浓度增加模拟试验.试验设对照(390 μmol·mol^-1)、480 μmol·mol^-1和570 μmol·mol^-1 3个CO₂浓度.结果表明: CO₂浓度升高使春小麦冠层空气温度小幅上升,10 cm深处的土壤环境温度下降;CO₂浓度增加对春小麦各器官生物量和总生物量都有明显促进作用,在480和570 μmol·mol^-1浓度下,地上干物质量平均增长20.6%和41.5%,总干物质量平均增长19.3%和39.6%.生物量增加主要是由茎叶干物质量增加所致,与生育中期物质生产能力明显增强有关;在两种CO₂浓度处理下,植株根冠比分别降低7.3%和11.8%,CO₂浓度增加对春小麦地上部分干物质积累的贡献大于地下部分;CO₂浓度升高主要通过影响穗粒数来影响最终产量,在480和570 μmol·mol^-1浓度下,小麦产量分别增加了8.9%和19.9%;大气CO₂浓度升高对春小麦光合作用影响的长期效应不明显,随CO₂浓度升高,光合速率显著提高,蒸腾速率降低,蒸发蒸腾量减小.随CO₂浓度升高,叶片、群体和产量3个水平的WUE都增加,其中群体水平的WUE增幅最大,产量水平的WUE增幅最小.     

Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China

A regional climate change model (PRECIS) for China, developed by the UK's Hadley Centre, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average annual temperature increase in China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between 3 and 4 degrees C. Regional crop models were driven by PRECIS output to predict changes in yields of key Chinese food crops: rice, maize and wheat. Modelling suggests that climate change without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization could reduce the rice, maize and wheat yields by up to 37% in the next 20-80 years. Interactions of CO2 with limiting factors, especially water and nitrogen, are increasingly well understood and capable of strongly modulating observed growth responses in crops. More complete reporting of free-air carbon enrichment experiments than was possible in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report confirms that CO2 enrichment under field conditions consistently increases biomass and yields in the range of 5-15%, with CO2 concentration elevated to 550 ppm Levels of CO2 that are elevated to more than 450 ppm will probably cause some deleterious effects in grain quality. It seems likely that the extent of the CO2 fertilization effect will depend upon other factors such as optimum breeding, irrigation and nutrient applications.     

气候变化对我国华北地区冬小麦发育和产量的影响

验证作物模型在我国华北冬小麦主产区是否适应的基础上,采用作物模型与气候模式相结合的研究方法,定量化地模拟预测了未来100年气候变化对华北冬小麦生产的影响.结果表明,从2000～2004年,华北地区冬小麦产量的模拟值与实测值的变化趋势基本一致,且生育期和产量变化不大.未来100年内华北地区冬小麦的生长期可能会有所缩短,平均缩短8.4 d;产量也会有不同程度的下降,平均减产10.1％.适当采取应对措施可以有效降低冬小麦的减产趋势.     

华北地区冬小麦灌溉制度及其环境效应研究进展

充分利用有限的灌溉水资源确保冬小麦安全生产是华北地区冬小麦稳产高产面临的严峻挑战,解决这一问题的关键在于如何基于环境效应科学地进行灌溉管理。综述了国内外有关冬小麦的灌溉管理制度,即充分灌溉与非充分灌溉管理制度以及冬小麦关键灌溉期的环境效应,在此基础上提出了华北地区冬小麦科学灌溉拟重点关注的研究任务:(1)冬小麦生长发育需水时间与需水量的控制机制研究;(2)冬小麦干旱发生发展过程与致灾临界气象条件研究;(3)气候变化背景下极端干旱事件的冬小麦脆弱性诊断与适应性管理,以为华北地区冬小麦安全生产措施制定提供依据。     

Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria

The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in north‐eastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8 °C from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop‐growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels of CO₂ concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO₂ effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.     

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat‐growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041–2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO₂ emission scenario by 2081–2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat‐growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.     

Climate change increases risk of fusarium ear blight on wheat in central China

To estimate potential impact of climate change on wheat fusarium ear blight (FEB), simulated weather for the A1B climate change scenario was input into a model for estimating FEB in central China. In this article, a logistic weather‐based regression model for estimating incidence of wheat FEB in central China was developed, using up to 10 years (2001–2010) of disease, anthesis date and weather data available for 10 locations in Anhui and Hubei provinces. In the model, the weather variables were defined with respect to the anthesis date for each location in each year. The model suggested that incidence of FEB is related to number of days of rainfall in a 30‐day period after anthesis and that high temperatures before anthesis increase the incidence of disease. Validation was done to test whether this relationship was satisfied for another five locations in Anhui province with FEB data for 4–5 years but no nearby weather data, using simulated weather data obtained employing the regional climate modelling system PRECIS. How climate change may affect wheat anthesis date and FEB in central China was investigated for period 2020–2050 using wheat growth model Sirius and climate data simulated using PRECIS. The projection suggested that wheat anthesis dates will generally be earlier and FEB incidence will increase substantially for most locations.     

两种温室气体排放方案下我国水稻产量变化模拟

利用最新的温室气体和SO₂排放方案,即政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式PRECIS和作物模型CERES-Rcie相嵌套,在50 km×50 km网格尺度下,模拟了未来2080年我国水稻产量的变化.结果表明,两种温室气体排放方案下,我国水稻的年平均单产水平各地有增有减,增产地区主要集中在长江及长江流域以南地区,其中四川和湖北交界的山区增产幅度最大,减产地区主要集中在华北平原和东北平原;由于CO₂的肥效作用,A2温室气体排放方案对我国水稻单产的正面影响大于B2方案,A2排放方案下,我国水稻总产呈现一定程度的上升趋势,B2排放方案下,水稻总产表现为少量下降.     

大气CO2升高及气候变化对中国陆地生态系统结构与功能的制约和影响（英文）

在本顶研究中,我们探讨了大气CO2加倍和气候变化条件下,中国陆地生态系统的结构与功能的变化。与多数研究不同的是,我们耦合了两个以地理空间为参照的生态系统模型,即生物地理模型（KBIOME）和生物地球化学模型（TEM）,用此研究现状和未来的环境下,中国的植被分布和年净初级生产力（NPP）的状况,我们采用3个大气环流模型,（GFDL－Q,GISS和OSU）预测的结果代表潜在气候变化。3个气候模型的预测都煌中国将变得更温暖并总体上更湿润。耦合的模型预测中国陆地生态系统的结构与功能都将产生十分显著的变化。植被的变迁表现为：1）中国东部森林带北移,温带常绿阔叶林面积扩大,较南的森林取代较北的类型;2）森林和草地的总面积增加,这是作为取代干旱藻木林、沙漠和高山苔原的结果。年净初级生产力在大气CO2加倍和气候变化条件下,增加30％左右,与其它研究不同的另一点是,我们可能进一步区分生产力变化的原因,在所增加的生产力中,12％－21％是源于生态系统的取代较低产的生态系统的结果。这项研究预测了未来中国植被和生产力潜在的变化并给出了变化的范围,为同类的研究以及有关的政策评估提供了有用的参考信息。     

Estimating climate change,CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran

Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran’s population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO₂ concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO₂ concentration (1 ppm^?1) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO₂. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from ?28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.     

Impacts of climate change on virtual water content of crops in China

Looming water scarcity and climate change pose big challenges for China's food security. Previous studies have focus on the impacts of climate change either on agriculture or on water resources. Few studies have linked water and agriculture together in the context of climate change, and demonstrated how climate change will affect the amount of water used to produce per unit of crop, or virtual water content (VWC). We used a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model to analyze the current spatial distribution of VWC of various crops in China and the impacts of climate change on VWC in different future scenarios. The results show that C4 crops (e.g. irrigated maize with a VWC of 0.73 m³ kg^− 1 in baseline) generally have a lower VWC than C3 crops (e.g. irrigated wheat with a VWC of 1.1 m³ kg^− 1 in baseline), and the VWC of C4 crops responds less sensitively to the CO₂ concentration change in future climate scenarios. Three general change trends exist for future VWC of crops: continuous decline (for soybean and rice without considering CO₂ concentration changes) and continuous increase (for rice with considering CO₂ concentration changes) and first-decline-then-increase (other crop-scenario combinations). The trends reflect the responses of different crops to changes in precipitation, temperature as well as CO₂ concentration. From south to north along the latitude, there is a high-low-high distribution trend of the aggregated VWC of the crops. Precipitation and temperature changes combined can lead to negative effects on crop yield and higher VWC particularly in the far future e.g. the 2090s, but when CO₂ concentration change is taken into consideration, it is likely that crop yield will increase and crop VWC will decrease for the whole China. Integrated effects of precipitation, temperature and CO₂ concentration changes will benefit agricultural productivity and crop water productivity through all the future periods till the end of the century. Hence, climate change is likely to benefit food security and help alleviate water scarcity in China.