A geographical sampling method for surveys of mosquito larvae in an urban area using high-resolution satellite imagery

Entomological surveys in urban areas are often biased by selecting houses or locations with known high vector densities. A sampling strategy was developed for Puntarenas, Costa Rica, using high-resolution satellite imagery. Grids from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer and a QuickBird classified land cover map were used to determine the optimal final grid area for surveys. A random sample (10% of cells) was selected, and sample suitability was assessed by comparing the mean percentage of tree cover between sample and total cells. Sample cells were used to obtain entomological data from 581 locations: 26.3% of all locations positive for mosquito larvae were not households, they contained 29.5% of mosquito-positive habitats and 16% of Aedes aegypti pupae collected. Entomological indices for Ae. aegypti (pupae per person, Breteau index, container index, location index) were slightly lower when only household data were analyzed. High-resolution satellite imagery and geographical information systems appear useful for evaluating urban sites and randomly selecting locations for accurate entomological surveys.     

An appraisal of the epidemiologic situation of onchocerciasis in Ethiopia

The existence of onchocerciasis in Ethiopia has been known since 1939 as a result of investigation by Italians in south-western Ethiopia. In the last fifty years onchocerciasis has been spreading to previously non-endemic regions of Ethiopia. Although comprehensive epidemiological surveys are lacking, it is estimated that 7.3 million people or 17.4% of the population of Ethiopia is at risk from this disease. The principal vectors are S. damnosum complex and S. woodi ethiopiense. The clinical picture is mainly dermal and ocular manifestations are rare. In view of agricultural development projects and resettlement of millions of people from the highlands into endemic areas in southern and north-western parts of Ethiopia, further spread of onchocerciasis is expected. Experience gained in the control of the disease in west Africa by WHO and the introduction of effective mass chemotherapeutic agents as well as primary health care programmes and activities currently underway in Ethiopia indicate the feasibility of starting control programmes. A plea is therefore made to consider the control of onchocerciasis in Ethiopia urgently.     

Climate variability and Aedes vector indices in the southern Philippines: An empirical analysis

BackgroundVector surveillance is an essential public health tool to aid in the prediction and prevention of mosquito borne diseases. This study compared spatial and temporal trends of vector surveillance indices for Aedes vectors in the southern Philippines, and assessed potential links between vector indices and climate factors.MethodsWe analysed routinely collected larval and pupal surveillance data from residential areas of 14 cities and 51 municipalities during 2013–2018 (House, Container, Breteau and Pupal Indices), and used linear regression to explore potential relationships between vector indices and climate variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation).ResultsWe found substantial spatial and temporal variation in monthly Aedes vector indices between cities during the study period, and no seasonal trend apparent. The House (HI), Container (CI) and Breteau (BI) Indices remained at comparable levels across most surveys (mean HI = 15, mean CI = 16, mean BI = 24), while the Pupal Productivity Index (PPI) was relatively lower in most months (usually below 5) except for two main peak periods (mean = 49 overall). A small proportion of locations recorded high values across all entomological indices in multiple surveys. Each of the vector indices were significantly correlated with one or more climate variables when matched to data from the same month or the previous 1 or 2 months, although the effect sizes were small. Significant associations were identified between minimum temperature and HI, CI and BI in the same month (R² = 0.038, p = 0.007; R² = 0.029, p = 0.018; and R² = 0.034, p = 0.011, respectively), maximum temperature and PPI with a 2-month lag (R² = 0.031, p = 0.032), and precipitation and HI in the same month (R² = 0.023, p = 0.04).ConclusionsOur findings indicated that larval and pupal surveillance indices were highly variable, were regularly above the threshold for triggering vector control responses, and that vector indices based on household surveys were weakly yet significantly correlated with city-level climate variables. We suggest that more detailed spatial and temporal analyses of entomological, climate, socio-environmental and Aedes-borne disease incidence data are necessary to ascertain the most effective use of entomological indices in guiding vector control responses, and reduction of human disease risk.     

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.     

Impact of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission: assessing the empirical evidence that repeated ivermectin mass treatments may lead to elimination/eradication in West-Africa

BACKGROUND: The Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa has been closed down at the end of 2002. All subsequent control will be transferred to the participating countries and will almost entirely be based on periodic mass treatment with ivermectin. This makes the question whether elimination of infection or eradication of onchocerciasis can be achieved using this strategy of critical importance. This study was undertaken to explore this issue. METHODS: An empirical approach was adopted in which a comprehensive analysis was undertaken of available data on the impact of more than a decade of ivermectin treatment on onchocerciasis infection and transmission. Relevant entomological and epidemiological data from 14 river basins in the OCP and one basin in Cameroon were reviewed. Areas were distinguished by frequency of treatment (6-monthly or annually), endemicity level and additional control measures such as vector control. Assessment of results were in terms of epidemiological and entomological parameters, and as a measure of inputs, therapeutic and geographical coverage rates were used. RESULTS: In all of the river basins studied, ivermectin treatment sharply reduced prevalence and intensity of infection. Significant transmission, however, is still ongoing in some basins after 10-12 years of ivermectin treatment. In other basins, transmission may have been interrupted, but this needs to be confirmed by in-depth evaluations. In one mesoendemic basin, where 20 rounds of four-monthly treatment reduced prevalence of infection to levels as low as 2-3%, there was significant recrudescence of infection within a few years after interruption of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Ivermectin treatment has been very successful in eliminating onchocerciasis as a public health problem. However, the results presented in this paper make it almost certain that repeated ivermectin mass treatment will not lead to the elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis from West Africa. Data on 6-monthly treatments are not sufficient to draw definitive conclusions.     

Final report of the Conference on the eradicability of Onchocerciasis

Sixty-four experts from a variety of disciplines attended a Conference on the Eradicability of Onchocerciasis at The Carter Center, in Atlanta GA, held January 22-24, 2002. The Conference, which was organized by The Carter Center and the World Health Organization, with funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, addressed the question: "Is onchocerciasis (River Blindness) eradicable with current knowledge and tools?" Former US President Jimmy Carter attended part of the final plenary proceedings on January 24.The Conference consisted of a series of presentations by invited expert speakers (Appendix C) and further deliberations in four workgroups (Appendix D) followed by plenary discussion of major conclusions. The presentations underlined epidemiological and entomological differences between onchocerciasis in Africa and the Americas. Whilst onchocerciasis in Africa covers extensive areas and is associated with striking human and fly population migrations and remarkably efficient black fly vectors, in the Americas onchocerciasis is found in limited foci. Human and fly population migration are not major problems in the Americas, where most black fly species are inefficient, though some efficient black flies are also found there. Vector control has been effectively applied in the Onchocerciasis Control Program in West Africa (OCP) with remarkable results, interrupting transmission in most parts of the original Program area. The use of ivermectin has given variable results: while ivermectin treatment has been effective in all endemic areas in controlling onchocerciasis as a public health problem, its potential for interrupting transmission is more promising in hypo- and mesoendemic areas. The African Program for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC), which supports onchocerciasis control in endemic African countries outside the OCP, applies ivermectin, its principal control tool, to communities in high-risk areas as determined by rapid epidemiological mapping of onchocerciasis (REMO) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In the Americas, through support of the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program in the Americas (OEPA), a strategy of bi-annual ivermectin treatment of at least 85% of the eligible populations in all endemic communities is showing very good results and promises to be effective in eliminating onchocerciasis in the region.The Conference concluded that onchocerciasis is not eradicable using current tools due to the major barriers to eradication in Africa. However, the Conference also concluded that in most if not all the Americas, and possibly Yemen and some sites in Africa, transmission of onchocerciasis can be eliminated using current tools. The Conference recommended that where interruption of transmission is feasible and cost effective, programs should aim for that goal using all appropriate and available interventions so that the Onchocerca volvulus can eventually be eliminated and interventions halted. Although interruption of transmission of onchocerciasis cannot currently be achieved in most of Africa, the Conference recommended that efforts be made to preserve areas in West Africa made free of onchocerciasis transmission through the Onchocerciasis Control Program over the past 25 years. In the remaining hyper and mesoendemic foci in Africa, continued annual distribution of ivermectin will keep onchocerciasis controlled to a point where it is no longer a public health problem or constraint to economic development.     

The Brazilian focus of onchocerciasis: new observations in the areas of the Mucajaí and Catrimani rivers, Territory of Roraima

A recent survey for onchocerciasis conducted among the Yanomami Indians living on the middle reaches of the Mucajaí and Catrimani Rivers (Territory of Roraima) has failed to show any alteration in the local pattern of the disease. In fact, after a decade from the first surveys in these areas located at the periphery of the Yanomami focus, the prevalence and the intensity of infection have not experienced a significant change. Considering only the residents in the villages inside the surveyed areas, the prevalence varied from zero in the neighbourhood of the Catrimani mission to 3.1 per cent near the Mucajaí mission. Had there been a competent vector of Onchocerca volvulus in the region higher rates might be expected due to the Yanomami custom of periodic visits among the groups of the tribe. In some of these visits, numbers of highly infected Indians from the central and mountainous part of the Yanomami territory--where more than 90 per cent of the adults have onchocerciasis--come to the villages in the lowland area, attracted by the facilities offered by the mission posts. As the visitors stay in the host villages for several days or weeks, the residents could become exposed to the disease. Simulium oyapockense s.1., a man-biting species of black fly, widely distributed in Northern Brazil, is the only possible vector of O. volvulus in the investigated areas, on the grounds of its local abundance.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Elimination of vector-borne transmission of Chagas disease

The control of the vector-borne transmission of Chagas disease in Brazil was organized as a national program in 1975, when two large entomological and sero-epidemiological surveys were conducted in the country in order to identify areas at highest risk of transmission and to guide interventions regarding the chemical treatment of domestic vectors of the disease. The authors present the baseline data gathered through these studies and compare them with more recent data. The evaluation performed shows that the transmission by Triatoma infestans is virtually interrupted and that the transmission by other native species of triatominae from different regions of the country is possibly very low. It is emphasized the need to maintain permanent actions of entomological surveillance in order to prevent recurrent transmission.     

The status of Simulium oyapockense and S.limbatum as vectors of human onchocerciasis in Brazilian Amazonia

In an attempt to explain the current distribution of onchocerciasis in the forests of northern Brazil (Moraes et al., 1979, 1986), and its potential for dispersal to other areas, this study compares the vector status of Simulium oyapockense Floch and Abonnenc, 1946 in both a hypoendemic and an onchocerciasis free area with that of S. limbatum Knab, 1915 in the latter area. Both species allowed the full development of Onchocerca volvulus (Leuckart) to the infective L3 stage after experimental infection with microfilariae. Their vector competence was significantly lower than for other efficient vector species in South America and Africa because of the lethal effect of the cibarial armature on ingested microfilariae. The low vector capacity of S. oyapockense, together with the low prevalence and intensity of infection of O. volvulus, probably explains why onchocerciasis has not significantly increased in intensity over the last 10 years in the hypoendemic part of the Amazonian focus. Omnipresence of both vector species in the adjacent savanna region, however, could facilitate the spread of onchocerciasis if human population movements continue from the hyperendemic part of the onchocerciasis focus.     

Benefit of Insecticide-Treated Nets,Curtains and Screening on Vector Borne Diseases,Excluding Malaria: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Introduction

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the main interventions used for malaria control. However, these nets may also be effective against other vector borne diseases (VBDs). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the efficacy of ITNs, insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) and insecticide-treated house screening (ITS) against Chagas disease, cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis, dengue, human African trypanosomiasis, Japanese encephalitis, lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS and Tropical Disease Bulletin databases were searched using intervention, vector- and disease-specific search terms. Cluster or individually randomised controlled trials, non-randomised trials with pre- and post-intervention data and rotational design studies were included. Analysis assessed the efficacy of ITNs, ITCs or ITS versus no intervention. Meta-analysis of clinical data was performed and percentage reduction in vector density calculated.

Results

Twenty-one studies were identified which met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of clinical data could only be performed for four cutaneous leishmaniasis studies which together showed a protective efficacy of ITNs of 77% (95%CI: 39%–91%). Studies of ITC and ITS against cutaneous leishmaniasis also reported significant reductions in disease incidence. Single studies reported a high protective efficacy of ITS against dengue and ITNs against Japanese encephalitis. No studies of Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis or onchocerciasis were identified.

Conclusion

There are likely to be considerable collateral benefits of ITN roll out on cutaneous leishmaniasis where this disease is co-endemic with malaria. Due to the low number of studies identified, issues with reporting of entomological outcomes, and few studies reporting clinical outcomes, it is difficult to make strong conclusions on the effect of ITNs, ITCs or ITS on other VBDs and therefore further studies be conducted. Nonetheless, it is clear that insecticide-treated materials such as ITNs have the potential to reduce pathogen transmission and morbidity from VBDs where vectors enter houses.     

Monitoring of canine leishmaniasis in northern Italy: an update from a scientific network

Canine leishmaniasis (CanL) due to Leishmania infantum is a disease of great veterinary importance and a serious public health problem. In humans, L. infantum causes visceral (VL) and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and the distribution of VL overlaps that of CanL. Currently, VL is considered by WHO as an emerging zoonosis in southern Europe. The dog is the only domestic reservoir of the infection and phlebotomine sandflies are the only proven vectors of leishmaniasis for dogs and humans. CanL is endemic in Italy, particularly in central and southern regions, including islands. Until 1983, all regions of northern Italy but Liguria and some territories of Emilia Romagna were considered free from CanL. From early '90s new stable foci of CanL have appeared, most of them located within classical endemic areas including territories of Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Umbria, Marche, and Abruzzi regions. But the most relevant aspect, from an epidemiological point of view, has been the appearance of stable CanL foci in northern Italy, namely in Veneto and Piedmont regions. In these two foci, entomological surveys showed the presence of P. perniciosus and of a second phlebotomine vector, P. neglectus, which may have played a role in the CanL diffusion in some parts of northern Italy. Furthermore, in these areas, autochthonous human VL cases have occurred. There is therefore a realistic risk that CanL infection could rapidly spread through northern latitudes and a surveillance activity is strongly needed. For this reason, in October 2002, thanks to the collaboration and support of Intervet Italia, the network "LeishMap" was created, with the main purpose of monitoring the spread of CanL and vectors in northern Italy. LeishMap consists of scientific and sanitary institutions with proven experience both in field surveys and diagnostic methodologies on CanL and phlebotomine vector. It is organised in 4 Operational Units (OU), represented by researchers of the Veterinary Faculties of the University of Bologna, Padua, Milan and Turin, under the scientific coordination of the MIPI Department, ISS of Rome and with the collaboration of private and public veterinarians operating in the regions under study. During the first year of activity, each OU was involved in the serological and entomological surveillance of several territories in the respective regions, where recent autochthonous CanL cases were registered. The studies have involved five regions, namely Valle D'Aosta, Piedmont, Lombardia, Veneto, Trentino-Alto Adige and Emilia Romagna. In the Symposium 6 of this Congress we report detailed results of a retrospective analysis of data concerning CanL and vectors in northern Italy till 2002 and the preliminary results of 2003 on the seroprevalence rates observed in foci studied and on the entomological surveys carried out. In summary, the results outlined that already known foci of CanL are expanding from the original sites. Several new foci have been identified and many others are at high risk of evolving toward a stable endemicity. P. perniciosus has been found in all but one the suspected new foci. In Emilia Romagna region P. perfiliewi was identified in 2 areas and in one was the only species present. The occurrence of P. neglectus was confirmed in three regions, Veneto, Lombardia and Piedmont. In conclusion, from the 2002-2003 LeishMap activities it appears that further monitoring activities are necessary to identify new endemic foci of CanL, this representing the prerequisite for the implementation of programs for leishmaniasis control in northern Italy.     

Reducing Human-Tsetse Contact Significantly Enhances the Efficacy of Sleeping Sickness Active Screening Campaigns: A Promising Result in the Context of Elimination

Background

Control of gambiense sleeping sickness, a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination by 2020, relies mainly on mass screening of populations at risk and treatment of cases. This strategy is however challenged by the existence of undetected reservoirs of parasites that contribute to the maintenance of transmission. In this study, performed in the Boffa disease focus of Guinea, we evaluated the value of adding vector control to medical surveys and measured its impact on disease burden.

Methods

The focus was divided into two parts (screen and treat in the western part; screen and treat plus vector control in the eastern part) separated by the Rio Pongo river. Population census and baseline entomological data were collected from the entire focus at the beginning of the study and insecticide impregnated targets were deployed on the eastern bank only. Medical surveys were performed in both areas in 2012 and 2013.

Findings

In the vector control area, there was an 80% decrease in tsetse density, resulting in a significant decrease of human tsetse contacts, and a decrease of disease prevalence (from 0.3% to 0.1%; p=0.01), and an almost nil incidence of new infections (<0.1%). In contrast, incidence was 10 times higher in the area without vector control (>1%, p<0.0001) with a disease prevalence increasing slightly (from 0.5 to 0.7%, p=0.34).

Interpretation

Combining medical and vector control was decisive in reducing T. b. gambiense transmission and in speeding up progress towards elimination. Similar strategies could be applied in other foci.     

Human Onchocerciasis: Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme

Background

Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with Loa loa, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis–loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of Onchocerca volvulus infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance.     

Surveillance of Aedes aegypti: Comparison of House Index with Four Alternative Traps

Introduction

The mosquito Aedes aegypti, vector of dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever viruses, is an important target of vector control programs in tropical countries. Most mosquito surveillance programs are still based on the traditional household larval surveys, despite the availability of new trapping devices. We report the results of a multicentric entomological survey using four types of traps, besides the larval survey, to compare the entomological indices generated by these different surveillance tools in terms of their sensitivity to detect mosquito density variation.

Methods

The study was conducted in five mid-sized cities, representing variations of tropical climate regimens. Surveillance schemes using traps for adults (BG-Sentinel, Adultrap and MosquiTRAP) or eggs (ovitraps) were applied monthly to three 1 km² areas per city. Simultaneously, larval surveys were performed. Trap positivity and density indices in each area were calculated and regressed against meteorological variables to characterize the seasonal pattern of mosquito infestation in all cities, as measured by each of the four traps.

Results

The House Index was consistently low in most cities, with median always 0. Traps rarely produced null indices, pointing to their greater sensitivity in detecting the presence of Ae. aegypti in comparison to the larval survey. Trap positivity indices tend to plateau at high mosquito densities. Despite this, both indices, positivity and density, agreed on the seasonality of mosquito abundance in all cities. Mosquito seasonality associated preferentially with temperature than with precipitation even in areas where temperature variation is small.

Conclusions

All investigated traps performed better than the House Index in measuring the seasonal variation in mosquito abundance and should be considered as complements or alternatives to larval surveys. Choice between traps should further consider differences of cost and ease-of-use.     

Geographical patterns of onchocerciasis in southern Venezuela: relationships between environment and infection prevalence

Onchocerciasis is a chronic filarial infection transmitted by Simulium flies that has a focal geographical distribution in Latin America. The southern Venezuelan focus has a gradient of endemicity that includes the largest number of hyperendemic communities in the continent, many of them in remote forest and mountainous areas, where it is an important public health problem among the Yanomami indigenous population. The recent introduction of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tools and a landscape epidemiology approach for study of vector borne diseases is helping to understand relationships between environment and transmission dynamics of onchocerciasis. Striking differences in the transmission dynamics of onchocerciasis between different river courses were detected. A significant relationship between onchocerciasis and temperature was also demonstrated. The geologic substrate, kind of landscape and vegetation seemed also to influence the transmission of onchocerciasis. In the Venezuelan Amazon, different kinds of landscapes associated with distinctive vector species, show different intensities of transmission of onchocerciasis. In this sense, landscape analysis aided by GIS, may prove to be a useful tool for better identification of the spatial distribution of onchocerciasis risk in the Orinoco basin.     

Urbanization,land tenure security and vector-borne Chagas disease

Modern cities represent one of the fastest growing ecosystems on the planet. Urbanization occurs in stages; each stage characterized by a distinct habitat that may be more or less susceptible to the establishment of disease vector populations and the transmission of vector-borne pathogens. We performed longitudinal entomological and epidemiological surveys in households along a 1900 × 125 m transect of Arequipa, Peru, a major city of nearly one million inhabitants, in which the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of Chagas disease, by the insect vector Triatoma infestans, is an ongoing problem. The transect spans a cline of urban development from established communities to land invasions. We find that the vector is tracking the development of the city, and the parasite, in turn, is tracking the dispersal of the vector. New urbanizations are free of vector infestation for decades. T. cruzi transmission is very recent and concentrated in more established communities. The increase in land tenure security during the course of urbanization, if not accompanied by reasonable and enforceable zoning codes, initiates an influx of construction materials, people and animals that creates fertile conditions for epidemics of some vector-borne diseases.     

Inter-Model Comparison of the Landscape Determinants of Vector-Borne Disease: Implications for Epidemiological and Entomological Risk Modeling

Extrapolating landscape regression models for use in assessing vector-borne disease risk and other applications requires thoughtful evaluation of fundamental model choice issues. To examine implications of such choices, an analysis was conducted to explore the extent to which disparate landscape models agree in their epidemiological and entomological risk predictions when extrapolated to new regions. Agreement between six literature-drawn landscape models was examined by comparing predicted county-level distributions of either Lyme disease or Ixodes scapularis vector using Spearman ranked correlation. AUC analyses and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the ability of these extrapolated landscape models to predict observed national data. Three models based on measures of vegetation, habitat patch characteristics, and herbaceous landcover emerged as effective predictors of observed disease and vector distribution. An ensemble model containing these three models improved precision and predictive ability over individual models. A priori assessment of qualitative model characteristics effectively identified models that subsequently emerged as better predictors in quantitative analysis. Both a methodology for quantitative model comparison and a checklist for qualitative assessment of candidate models for extrapolation are provided; both tools aim to improve collaboration between those producing models and those interested in applying them to new areas and research questions.     

Elimination of Onchocerciasis from Mexico

Background

Mexico is one of the six countries formerly endemic for onchocerciasis in Latin America. Transmission has been interrupted in the three endemic foci of that country and mass drug distribution has ceased. Three years after mass drug distribution ended, post-treatment surveillance (PTS) surveys were undertaken which employed entomological indicators to check for transmission recrudescence.

Methodology/Principal findings

In-depth entomologic assessments were performed in 18 communities in the three endemic foci of Mexico. None of the 108,212 Simulium ochraceum s.l. collected from the three foci were found to contain parasite DNA when tested by polymerase chain reaction-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (PCR-ELISA), resulting in a maximum upper bound of the 95% confidence interval (95%-ULCI) of the infective rate in the vectors of 0.035/2,000 flies examined. This is an order of magnitude below the threshold of a 95%-ULCI of less than one infective fly per 2,000 flies tested, the current entomological criterion for interruption of transmission developed by the international community. The point estimate of seasonal transmission potential (STP) was zero, and the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the STP ranged from 1.2 to 1.7 L₃/person/season in the different foci. This value is below all previous estimates for the minimum transmission potential required to maintain the parasite population.

Conclusions/Significance

The results from the in-depth entomological post treatment surveillance surveys strongly suggest that transmission has not resumed in the three foci of Mexico during the three years since the last distribution of ivermectin occurred; it was concluded that transmission remains undetectable without intervention, and Onchocerca volvulus has been eliminated from Mexico.     

Entomological outcomes of cluster-randomised,community-driven dengue vector-suppression interventions in Kampong Cham province,Cambodia

Cambodia has one of the highest dengue infection rates in Southeast Asia. Here we report quantitative entomological results of a large-scale cluster-randomised trial assessing the impact on vector populations of a package of vector control interventions including larvivorous guppy fish in household water containers, mosquito trapping with gravid-ovitraps, solid waste management, breeding-container coverage through community education and engagement for behavioural change, particularly through the participation of school children. These activities resulted in major reductions in Container Index, House Index, Breteau Index, Pupal Index and Adult Index (all p-values 0.002 or lower) in the Intervention Arm compared with the Control Arm in a series of household surveys conducted over a follow-up period of more than one year, although the project was not able to measure the longer-term sustainability of the interventions. Despite comparative reductions in Adult Index between the study arms, the Adult Index was higher in the Intervention Arm in the final household survey than in the first household survey. This package of biophysical and community engagement interventions was highly effective in reducing entomological indices for dengue compared with the control group, but caution is required in extrapolating the reduction in household Adult Index to a reduction in the overall population of adult Aedes mosquitoes, and in interpreting the relationship between a reduction in entomological indices and a reduction in the number of dengue cases. The package of interventions should be trialled in other locations.     

Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus in Iquitos,Peru: Urban Transmission of a Sylvatic Strain

Enzootic strains of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) have been isolated from febrile patients in the Peruvian Amazon Basin at low but consistent levels since the early 1990s. Through a clinic-based febrile surveillance program, we detected an outbreak of VEEV infections in Iquitos, Peru, in the first half of 2006. The majority of these patients resided within urban areas of Iquitos, with no report of recent travel outside the city. To characterize the risk factors for VEEV infection within the city, an antibody prevalence study was carried out in a geographically stratified sample of urban areas of Iquitos. Additionally, entomological surveys were conducted to determine if previously incriminated vectors of enzootic VEEV were present within the city. We found that greater than 23% of Iquitos residents carried neutralizing antibodies against VEEV, with significant associations between increased antibody prevalence and age, occupation, mosquito net use, and overnight travel. Furthermore, potential vector mosquitoes were widely distributed across the city. Our results suggest that while VEEV infection is more common in rural areas, transmission also occurs within urban areas of Iquitos, and that further studies are warranted to identify the precise vectors and reservoirs involved in urban VEEV transmission.