Climate change may account for the decline in British ring ouzels Turdus torquatus

1. Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, but the number of species for which reliable models relate weather and climate to demographic parameters is low. 2. We modelled the effect of temperature and rainfall on the breeding success and territory occupancy of ring ouzels Turdus torquatus (L.) in northern Britain, using data from a range of study areas, including one where there was a long-term decline in ring ouzel abundance. 3. Timing of breeding was significantly related to meteorological variables affecting birds in the early spring, though there was no evidence that laying dates had advanced. Breeding success was not significantly related to weather variables; instead, over 90% of annual variation in this parameter could be explained by density dependence. 4. Annual change in territory occupancy was linked to rainfall and temperature the preceding summer, after the main breeding season and to rainfall in the wintering grounds 24 months previously, coincident with the period of juniper Juniperus sp. (L.) flowering. High temperature in late summer, intermediate levels of late summer rainfall, and high spring rainfall in Morocco 24 months previously all had negative impacts on territory occupancy the following year. 5. All three weather variables have changed over recent decades, with a significant increase in summer temperature, a significant decrease in summer rainfall, and a nonsignificant decline in Moroccan spring rainfall. A model based on these trends alone predicted an annual decline in occupancy of 3.6% (compared with an observed decline of 1.2%), and suggested that increased summer temperatures may underlie declines in the British ring ouzel population. 6. Changes in summer temperature after the main breeding period could affect the survival rates of adult and/or juvenile birds. An improved understanding of the post-breeding ecology of ring ouzels is required to elucidate the mechanisms and causes of this relationship. Such knowledge might allow management aimed at buffering the impacts of climate change on ring ouzels.     

Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross species

Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long‐term data (1985–2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub‐Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.     

Seabirds and sandeels: the conflict between exploitation and conservation in the northern North Sea

Sandeels, especiallyAmmodytes marinus are a major component of the diet of many predatory fish, seabirds and seals. The industrial fishery for sandeels is now the largest of the North Sea fisheries. A sandeel fishery in the Shetland area began in 1974 but has recently declined. This change was accompanied by dramatic declines in the breeding success of certain seabirds, particularly Arctic terns and kittiwakes. Current information on seabirds and sandeels in the Shetland area is reviewed and areas where further research is needed, highlighted. The Shetland problem illustrates the difficulties of reconciling conservation and exploitation when fundamental ecological and behavioural knowledge is lacking, and also the need to obtain further information on the ecological impact of industrial fisheries.     

Environmental variation and experience-related differences in the demography of the long-lived black-browed albatross

1. It has been largely demonstrated that demographic performances of animals increase with age or experience as a result of an improvement of foraging skills, an increasing reproductive effort or a selection process. However, little is known about the age or experience-related response of populations to environmental variations. Theoretical studies consider that age-related variations of the performances are greater under more restricting conditions, but this has rarely been tested. 2. We tested this hypothesis on a long-lived species, black browed albatross Thalassarche melanophrys Temminck, using a long-term capture-mark-recapture data set. We investigated the responses of a population to climate, by studying the effects of climatic factors and breeding experience on survival and breeding success. 3. First-time breeders appear to be poorer performers compared with experienced adults, with lower reproductive success and lower survival. In addition, interannual variations of demographic traits were partly explained by climatic indices, reflecting environmental variations. The survival probability of black-browed albatrosses varied with experience and climate, and differences being greater under harsh conditions. By contrast, the reproductive success of inexperienced individuals was affected by climatic fluctuations in the same way as the experienced ones. 4. First breeding event acts as a strong selective process on the highly heterogeneous class of inexperienced individuals, suggesting the increase in survival and breeding success with experience may mainly reflect a reduction in the heterogeneity among individual qualities.     

Reproduction and survival of Glaucous Gulls breeding in an Arctic seabird colony

ABSTRACT.   Despite being widespread and easily observed, little is known about the life history of Glaucous Gulls ( Larus hyperboreus ). From 1984 to 2007, we examined their breeding biology and demography at Coats Island, Nunavut, Canada, where they nest alongside a colony of 30,000 pairs of Thick-billed Murres ( Uria lomvia ). The gulls fed mainly on murre eggs and chicks and by scavenging adult carcasses. The median age at first breeding was 5 yr, and the mean age was 4.8 ± 0.9 yr. Adult survival was estimated as 0.84 ± 0.03 (SE). The mean clutch size was 2.56 eggs and the mean number of young reared per year was 1.6 (range = 0.9–2.2). Birds reared at the colony provided 40% of recruits. Assuming that survival of locally reared chicks that emigrated was similar to that of chicks that returned to the colony, about 22% of the young gulls survived to breeding age. The timing of breeding by Glaucous Gulls appeared related to the timing of laying by murres. Although the demographic characteristics of Glaucous Gulls in our study were similar to those of populations of other large gulls, adult survival was at the lower end of the range for populations of large Larus gulls. There is some evidence that Glaucous Gulls exhibit lower survival than large gulls breeding in temperate areas, possibly because of contaminant burdens. In general, however, the demographic characteristics of large gulls show little variation and are probably a product of their common phylogeny.     

Disentangling the spatial and temporal causes of decline in a bird population

The difficulties in understanding the underlying reasons of a population decline lie in the typical short duration of field studies, the often too small size already reached by a declining population or the multitude of environmental factors that may influence population trend. In this difficult context, useful demographic tools such as integrated population models (IPM) may help disentangling the main reasons for a population decline. To understand why a hoopoe Upupa epops population has declined, we followed a three step model analysis. We built an IPM structured with respect to habitat quality (approximated by the expected availability of mole crickets, the main prey in our population) and estimated the contributions of habitat‐specific demographic rates to population variation and decline. We quantified how much each demographic rate has decreased and investigated whether habitat quality influenced this decline. We tested how much weather conditions and research activities contributed to the decrease in the different demographic rates. The decline of the hoopoe population was mainly explained by a decrease in first‐year apparent survival and a reduced number of fledglings produced, particularly in habitats of high quality. Since a majority of pairs bred in habitats of the highest quality, the decrease in the production of locally recruited yearlings in high‐quality habitat was the main driver of the population decline despite a homogeneous drop of recruitment across habitats. Overall, the explanatory variables we tested only accounted for 19% of the decrease in the population growth rate. Among these variables, the effects of spring temperature (49% of the explained variance) contributed more to population decline than spring precipitation (36%) and research activities (maternal capture delay, 15%). This study shows the power of IPMs for identifying the vital rates involved in population declines and thus paves the way for targeted conservation and management actions.     

Sooty Falcon Falco concolor reproduction and population dynamics on the islands in the Sea of Oman

Knowledge of demographic parameters affecting population dynamics is critical to the formulation of effective conservation strategies. Sooty Falcon Falco concolor is a little‐studied, Near‐threatened species; estimates of global population size and trend for this species are uncertain. They lay eggs during mid‐summer and sometimes nest in colonies. This unusual breeding ecology suggests that demographic parameters driving their population growth rate may differ from those of most other falcons. We studied Sooty Falcon reproduction at breeding aggregations on Fahal Island and the Daymaniyat islands in the Sea of Oman during 2007–2014, modelled population growth and identified important life history parameters using elasticity analysis. The mean (± se) clutch and brood size was 2.83 ± 0.06 and 2.11 ± 0.07, respectively. Overall, 11.7% of nests failed between the egg and nestling stages, and the failure rate differed significantly between Fahal and the Daymaniyats, and across years. The mean proportion of eggs that hatched annually was 0.66 ± 0.02, and broods were significantly smaller on the Daymaniyats than on Fahal. Falcons on Fahal Island had a higher rate of hatching, a higher rate of nests that produced at least one chick, and produced more chicks per nest than on the Daymaniyats. We suggest that Fahal's proximity to the mainland gives breeding Sooty Falcons access to a more plentiful and stable source of food, especially during the period between arrival from the wintering grounds and the onset of the autumn migration of prey birds, resulting in the better reproductive rates for falcons on Fahal Island, relative to those on the Daymaniyat Islands. The annual asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75–0.99), suggesting a declining population, although Sooty Falcons enjoyed a slightly higher population growth rate on Fahal than on the Daymaniyats. Because our study population is on the edge of the breeding range and is isolated from other breeding areas, measures to improve reproductive success of Sooty Falcons breeding on the islands in the Sea of Oman could be important for conservation of Sooty Falcons in Oman.     

Climate and demography of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus off northern California: implications for population change

1. We performed demographic analyses on Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, a zooplanktivorous seabird inhabiting the variable California Current System, to understand how temporal environmental variability influences population dynamics. 2. We used capture-recapture data from 1986 to 2002 to rank models of interannual variation in survival, breeding propensity, breeding success, and recruitment. 3. All demographic parameters exhibited temporal variability. Interannual variation in survival was best modelled as a nonlinear function of the winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Breeding propensity was best modelled as a threshold function of local sea surface temperature. Breeding success and recruitment were best modelled with year-dependent annual variation. 4. Changes in the SOI force El Ni?o/La Ni?a events, which in turn alter prey availability to seabirds in this system. Demographic responses varied during El Ni?os/La Ni?as. Survival diminished substantially during the 1997-98 El Ni?o event, while breeding propensity was affected during both the 1992 and 1998 El Ni?os. Breeding success was reduced during the 1992, 1993, and 1998 El Ni?os, but was unusually high in 2002. Recruitment was higher at the beginning and end of this time-series. 5. While demographic responses varied interannually, parameter values covaried in a positive fashion, a situation conducive to rapid population change. During the 11 years study period, the Farallon auklet breeding population declined at 6.05 +/- 0.80% (SE) per year, a cumulative decline of 49.7%. This study demonstrates how climate variability has influenced key demographic processes for this diminished marine bird population.     

Drivers of the breeding success of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus frazari) at a critical site in Sinaloa,Mexico

Understanding breeding phenology and success can elucidate population dynamics, which is especially important for species in need of conservation. We describe the factors affecting the breeding biology of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus frazari) at El Rancho Island, a critical site that contains ~ 7% of the total estimated population, on the coast of Sinaloa, Mexico. We monitored 192 nests over four years (2016–2019). The breeding season lasted from March to June and mean laying dates differed among years, with the mean laying date in 2019 an average of 20 days earlier than in 2016. Clutch sizes decreased as the breeding season progressed. Both breeding success and productivity differed among years, with the lowest values in 2016 (30% hatching success and 0.6 chicks/nest) and the highest in 2019 (66% hatching success and 1.2 chicks/nest). Hatching success was affected by year, laying date, type of habitat, and distance to the high tide line. American Oystercatchers that laid eggs earlier in the season, used mixed marsh and dune habitat, and with nests relatively close to the waterline (< 50 m) had greater breeding success. Overall, however, the breeding success of American Oystercatchers was low and influenced by a combination of several intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Management measures may be required to increase breeding success and ensure the conservation of this subspecies.     

Local adaptation and oceanographic connectivity patterns explain genetic differentiation of a marine diatom across the North Sea–Baltic Sea salinity gradient

Drivers of population genetic structure are still poorly understood in marine micro‐organisms. We exploited the North Sea–Baltic Sea transition for investigating the seascape genetics of a marine diatom, Skeletonema marinoi. Eight polymorphic microsatellite loci were analysed in 354 individuals from ten locations to analyse population structure of the species along a 1500‐km‐long salinity gradient ranging from 3 to 30 psu. To test for salinity adaptation, salinity reaction norms were determined for sets of strains originating from three different salinity regimes of the gradient. Modelled oceanographic connectivity was compared to directional relative migration by correlation analyses to examine oceanographic drivers. Population genetic analyses showed distinct genetic divergence of a low‐salinity Baltic Sea population and a high‐salinity North Sea population, coinciding with the most evident physical dispersal barrier in the area, the Danish Straits. Baltic Sea populations displayed reduced genetic diversity compared to North Sea populations. Growth optima of low salinity isolates were significantly lower than those of strains from higher native salinities, indicating local salinity adaptation. Although the North Sea–Baltic Sea transition was identified as a barrier to gene flow, migration between Baltic Sea and North Sea populations occurred. However, the presence of differentiated neutral markers on each side of the transition zone suggests that migrants are maladapted. It is concluded that local salinity adaptation, supported by oceanographic connectivity patterns creating an asymmetric migration pattern between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, determines genetic differentiation patterns in the transition zone.     

The impact of subsidies on the ecological sustainability and future profits from North Sea fisheries

Background

This study examines the impact of subsidies on the profitability and ecological stability of the North Sea fisheries over the past 20 years. It shows the negative impact that subsidies can have on both the biomass of important fish species and the possible profit from fisheries. The study includes subsidies in an ecosystem model of the North Sea and examines the possible effects of eliminating fishery subsidies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Hindcast analysis between 1991 and 2003 indicates that subsidies reduced the profitability of the fishery even though gross revenue might have been high for specific fisheries sectors. Simulations seeking to maximise the total revenue between 2004 and 2010 suggest that this can be achieved by increasing the effort of Nephrops trawlers, beam trawlers, and the pelagic trawl-and-seine fleet, while reducing the effort of demersal trawlers. Simulations show that ecological stability can be realised by reducing the effort of the beam trawlers, Nephrops trawlers, pelagic- and demersal trawl-and-seine fleets. This analysis also shows that when subsidies are included, effort will always be higher for all fleets, because it effectively reduces the cost of fishing.

Conclusions/Significance

The study found that while removing subsidies might reduce the total catch and revenue, it increases the overall profitability of the fishery and the total biomass of commercially important species. For example, cod, haddock, herring and plaice biomass increased over the simulation when optimising for profit, and when optimising for ecological stability, the biomass for cod, plaice and sole also increased. When subsidies are eliminated, the study shows that rather than forcing those involved in the fishery into the red, fisheries become more profitable, despite a decrease in total revenue due to a loss of subsidies from the government.     

Is reversing the decline of Asian elephants in North American zoos possible? An individual‐based modeling approach

Demographic models are important tools for assessing population status, diagnosing potential causes of population decline, and comparing management strategies that might change population trajectory. The population of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) maintained in North American zoos has been declining for the past decade, and Wiese ([2000] Zoo. Biol. 19:299–309) predicted a continued decline in the population using an age‐based matrix model. We developed an individual‐based model to further explore the demographic issues of the population. Our model allowed us to quantitatively evaluate the prospects for slowing or reversing the decline given the potential management strategies of improving reproduction, reducing infant mortality, altering birth sex ratio, and recruiting additional individuals from outside the population. Our simulations showed that if current demographic trends continued, the population would continue to decline at 2%/year. It was possible to create sustainable simulations, but these required a large increase in the annual number of births produced. Increasing reproduction was the most effective strategy to slow the decline, whereas other management strategies had the most impact when combined with increases in reproduction. Almost all simulations resulted in large changes in population structure, with increases in the male population and decreases in the female population. Given the population's demographic issues, it will be difficult to either increase the population substantially or sustain it at its current size. Zoo Biol 25:201–218, 2006. © 2005 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Historic and current habitat use by North Pacific right whales Eubalaena japonica in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska

1. To help define areas and ecological parameters critical to the survival and recovery of the remnant population of North Pacific right whales, habitat use was investigated by examining all available sighting and catch records in the south-eastern Bering Sea (SEBS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA) over the past two centuries. 2. Based on re-analyses of commercial whaling records, search effort, and resultant catches and sightings, waters of the: (i) SEBS slope and shelf, (ii) eastern Aleutian Islands and (iii) GOA slope and abyssal plain were important habitat for North Pacific right whales through the late 1960s. 3. Since 1980, the only area where right whales have been seen consistently is on the SEBS middle shelf. However, acoustic detections and single sightings have been reported in all other regions except the SEBS slope and oceanic GOA (areas where little, if any, acoustic and visual effort has occurred). 4. Sightings since 1979 were in waters < 200 m deep which may simply reflect the paucity of search effort elsewhere. From the commercial whaling era to the late 1960s, right whales were commonly seen in waters > 2000 m deep, indicating that their distribution is not restricted to shallow continental shelves. 5. North Pacific right whale sightings through the centuries have been associated with a variety of oceanic features, and there is little in common in the bathymetry of these regions. These whales appear to have a greater pelagic distribution than that observed in the North Atlantic, which may be related to the availability of larger copepods across the SEBS and GOA.     

The effects of predator removal on mallard production and population change in northeastern North Dakota

In 1994, Delta Waterfowl Foundation began trapping mammalian meso-predators in North Dakota during the breeding season in an attempt to increase waterfowl nest success and enhance recruitment into the fall flight and subsequent breeding population. Multiple studies on these sites demonstrated that removing predators results in near doubling of nest success, which previous simulation modeling suggests is the most influential vital rate influencing the population growth rate of mid-continent mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We present an assessment of the impact of predator removal on mallard production using population models. We conducted this study on 9 township-sized (93.2 km²) sites (4–8 sites annually per vital rate) in northeastern North Dakota from 2006–2008. Trappers removed mammalian meso-predators on 5 sites and the other 4 served as unmanaged reference sites. To estimate recruitment, we used derived estimates and process variance of pair numbers, hen success (nest survival corrected for renesting), initial brood size, pre-fledging survival, and post-fledging survival, along with previously published estimates of breeding propensity and adult female survival rates. Trapped sites had greater hen success (H = 0.69, = 0.03) than reference sites (H = 0.53, = 0.06), but similar indicated breeding pairs, initial brood size, and pre-fledging survival. We estimated that females on trapped sites added 140 more mallards of both sexes to the fall flight than females on reference sites, at an approximate cost of $74.29 per incremental mallard. Additionally, trapping predators provided a marginal increase (0.04) in finite population growth. We found that predator removal targeted at mammalian nest predators did not produce as many incremental mallards as previously thought and may not be a viable strategy for increasing mallard productivity under conditions similar to those observed during this study. We conducted a sensitivity analysis and determined that pre-fledging survival was the most influential factor regulating mallard population growth. Although hen success increased as a result of trapping, duckling survival became a limiting factor. We suggest that waterfowl managers assess multiple vital rates to determine the likelihood that management actions focused on a single parameter, such as nest success, will yield desired population level effects. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Growth and decline of a penguin colony and the influence on nesting density and reproductive success

Colonial breeding is characteristic of seabirds but nesting at high density has both advantages and disadvantages and may reduce survival and fecundity. African penguins (Spheniscus demersus) initiated breeding at Robben Island, South Africa in 1983. The breeding population on the island increased in the late 1990s and early 2000s before decreasing rapidly until 2010. Before the number breeding peaked, local nest density in the areas where the colony was initiated plateaued, suggesting that preferred nests sites were mostly occupied, and the area used by breeding birds expanded. However, it did not contract again as the population decreased, so that nesting density varied substantially. Breeding success was related positively to the prey available to the breeding birds and negatively to local nest density, particularly during the chick-rearing period, suggesting a density-dependence operating through social interactions in the colony, possibly exacerbated by poor prey availability when the breeding population was large. Although nest density at Robben Island was not high, nesting burrows, which probably reduce the incidence of aggressive encounters in the colony, are scarce and our results suggest that habitat alteration has modified the strength of density-dependent relationships for African penguins. Gaining a better understanding of how density dependence affects fecundity and population growth rates in colonial breeders is important for informing conservation management of the African penguin and other threatened taxa.