Modeled distributions of Aedes japonicus japonicus and Aedes togoi (Diptera: Culicidae) in the United States,Canada, and northern Latin America

The Asian bush mosquito, Aedes japonicus japonicus, and the coastal rock pool mosquito, Aedes togoi, are potential disease vectors present in both East Asia and North America. While their ranges are fairly well‐documented in Asia, this is not the case for North America. We used maximum entropy modeling to estimate the potential distributions of Ae. togoi and Ae. j. japonicus in the United States, Canada, and northern Latin America under contemporary and future climatic conditions. Our results suggest suitable habitat that is not known to be occupied for Ae. j. japonicus in Atlantic and western Canada, Alaska, the western, midwestern, southern, and northeastern United States, and Latin America, and for Ae. togoi along the Pacific coast of North America and the Hawaiian Islands. Such areas are at risk of future invasion or may already contain undetected populations of these species. Our findings further predict that the limits of suitable habitat for each species will expand northward under future climatic conditions.     

Evidence for transmission of the zoonotic apicomplexan parasite Babesia duncani by the tick Dermacentor albipictus

Babesiosis is a potentially fatal tick-borne zoonotic disease caused by a species complex of blood parasites that can infect a variety of vertebrates, particularly dogs, cattle, and humans. In the United States, human babesiosis is caused by two distinct parasites, Babesia microti and Babesia duncani. The enzootic cycle of B. microti, endemic in the northeastern and upper midwestern regions, has been well characterised. In the western United States, however, the natural reservoir host and tick vector have not been identified for B. duncani, greatly impeding efforts to understand and manage this zoonotic disease. Two and a half decades after B. duncani was first described in a human patient in Washington State, USA, we provide evidence that the enzootic tick vector is the winter tick, Dermacentor albipictus, and the reservoir host is likely the mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus. The broad, overlapping ranges of these two species covers a large portion of far-western North America, and is consistent with confirmed cases of B. duncani in the far-western United States.     

Population genetic data suggest a role for mosquito‐mediated dispersal of West Nile virus across the western United States

After introduction, West Nile virus (WNV) spread rapidly across the western United States between the years 2001 and 2004. This westward movement is thought to have been mediated by random dispersive movements of resident birds. Little attention has been placed on the role of mosquito vectors in virus dispersal across North America. The mosquito vector largely responsible for WNV amplification and transmission of WNV in the western USA is Culex tarsalis. Here we present population genetic data that suggest a potential role for C. tarsalis in the dispersal of WNV across the western USA. Population genetic structure across the species range of C. tarsalis in the USA was characterized in 16 states using 12 microsatellite loci. structure and geneland analyses indicated the presence of three broad population clusters. Barriers to gene flow were resolved near the Sonoran desert in southern Arizona and between the eastern Rocky Mountains and High Plains plateau. Small genetic distances among populations within clusters indicated that gene flow was not obstructed over large portions of the West Coast and within the Great Plains region. Overall, gene flow in C. tarsalis appears to be extensive, potentially mediated by movement of mosquitoes among neighbouring populations and hindered in geographically limited parts of its range. The pattern of genetic clustering in C. tarsalis is congruent with the pattern of invasion of WNV across the western United States, raising the possibility that movement of this important vector may be involved in viral dispersal.     

Geographic patterns in morphometric and genetic variation for coyote populations with emphasis on southeastern coyotes

Prior to 1900, coyotes (Canis latrans) were restricted to the western and central regions of North America, but by the early 2000s, coyotes became ubiquitous throughout the eastern United States. Information regarding morphological and genetic structure of coyote populations in the southeastern United States is limited, and where data exist, they are rarely compared to those from other regions of North America. We assessed geographic patterns in morphology and genetics of coyotes with special consideration of coyotes in the southeastern United States. Mean body mass of coyote populations increased along a west‐to‐east gradient, with southeastern coyotes being intermediate to western and northeastern coyotes. Similarly, principal component analysis of body mass and linear body measurements suggested that southeastern coyotes were intermediate to western and northeastern coyotes in body size but exhibited shorter tails and ears from other populations. Genetic analyses indicated that southeastern coyotes represented a distinct genetic cluster that differentiated strongly from western and northeastern coyotes. We postulate that southeastern coyotes experienced lower immigration from western populations than did northeastern coyotes, and over time, genetically diverged from both western and northeastern populations. Coyotes colonizing eastern North America experienced different selective pressures than did stable populations in the core range, and we offer that the larger body size of eastern coyotes reflects an adaptation that improved dispersal capabilities of individuals in the expanding range.     

Susceptibility and barriers to infection of Colorado mosquitoes with Rift Valley fever virus

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) causes morbidity and mortality in humans and domestic ungulates in sub-Saharan Africa, Egypt, and the Arabian Peninsula. Mosquito vectors transmit RVFV between vertebrates by bite, and also vertically to produce infectious progeny. Arrival of RVFV into the United States by infected mosquitoes or humans could result in significant impacts on food security, human health, and wildlife health. Elucidation of the vectors involved in the post-introduction RVFV ecology is paramount to rapid implementation of vector control. We performed vector competence experiments in which field-collected mosquitoes were orally exposed to an epidemic strain of RVFV via infectious blood meals. We targeted floodwater Aedes species known to feed on cattle, and/or deer species (Aedes melanimon Dyar, Aedes increpitus Dyar, Aedes vexans [Meigen]). Two permanent-water-breeding species were targeted as well: Culiseta inornata (Williston) of unknown competence considering United States populations, and Culex tarsalis Coquillett as a control species for which transmission efficiency is known. We tested the potential for midgut infection, midgut escape (dissemination), ovarian infection (vertical transmission), and transmission by bite (infectious saliva). Tissues were assayed by plaque assay and RT-qPCR, to quantify infectious virus and confirm virus identity. Tissue infection data were analyzed using a within-host model under a Bayesian framework to determine the probabilities of infection outcomes (midgut-limited infection, disseminated infection, etc.) while estimating barriers to infection between tissues. Permanent-water-breeding mosquitoes (Cx. tarsalis and Cs. inornata) exhibited more efficient horizontal transmission, as well as potential for vertical transmission, which is contrary to the current assumptions of RVFV ecology. Barrier estimates trended higher for Aedes spp., suggesting systemic factors in the differences between these species and Cx. tarsalis and Cs. inornata. These data indicate higher potential for vertical transmission than previously appreciated, and support the consensus of RVFV transmission including a broad range of potential vectors.     

Epidemic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among intravenous drug users (IVDU)

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is epidemic among intravenous drug users (IVDU), particularly in the northeastern United States. IVDU are playing a critical role in the spread of HIV by infecting their heterosexual partners and children, as well as their needle-sharing partners. The epidemiology of HIV infection among IVDU is reviewed here, including a compilation of seroprevalence data. Relevant determinants of the future spread of HIV among IVDU are discussed, including the major risk factors for HIV seropositivity, the modes of HIV transmission, and aspects of the natural history of HIV infection in IVDU. The public health policy implications of these issues include the need for education of adolescents and the general public about the risks of drug injection and heterosexual intercourse with IVDU, as well as motivation of IVDU to stop injecting, never share injection paraphernalia, or, at least, clean needles effectively.     

Vector Capability of Xiphinema americanum sensu lato in California

Seven field populations of Xiphinema americanum sensu lato from California''s major agronomic areas were tested for their ability to transmit two nepoviruses, including the prune brownline, peach yellow bud, and grapevine yellow vein strains of tomato ringspot virus and the bud blight strain of tobacco ringspot virus. Two field populations transmitted all isolates, one population transmitted all tomato ringspot virus isolates but failed to transmit bud blight strain of tobacco ringspot virus, and the remaining four populations failed to transmit any virus. Only one population, which transmitted all isolates, bad been associated with field spread of a nepovirus. As two California populations of Xiphinema americanum sensu lato were shown to have the ability to vector two different nepoviruses, a nematode taxonomy based on a parsimony of virus-vector relationship is not practical for these populations. Because two California populations of X. americanum were able to vector tobacco ringspot virus, commonly vectored by X. americanum in the eastern United States, these western populations cannot be differentiated from eastern populations by vector capability tests using tobacco ringspot virus.     

Dynamics of Mycoplasmal Conjunctivitis in the Native and Introduced Range of the Host

In 1994, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, a common bacterial poultry pathogen, caused an epidemic in house finches in the eastern part of their North American range where the species had been introduced in the 1940s. Birds with mycoplasmal conjunctivitis were reported across the entire eastern United States within 3–4 years. Here we track the course of the Mycoplasma gallisepticum epidemic as it reached native, western North American populations of the house finch. In 2002, Mycoplasma gallisepticum was first observed in a native house finch population in Missoula, MT, where it gradually increased in prevalence during the next 2 years. Concurrently, house finches with conjunctivitis were reported with increasing number in the Pacific Northwest. In native populations of the host, the epidemic expanded more slowly, and reached lower levels of prevalence than in the eastern, introduced range of the species. Maximal prevalence was about half in the Missoula population than in local populations in the East. Although many factors can contribute to these differences, we argue that it is most likely the higher genetic heterogeneity in western than in eastern populations caused the lower impact of the pathogen.     

Spatial Dynamics of Lyme Disease: A Review

Lyme disease (LD), the most frequently reported vector-borne disease in the United States, requires that humans, infected vector ticks, and infected hosts all occur in close spatial proximity. Understanding the spatial dynamics of LD requires an understanding of the spatial determinants of each of these organisms. We review the literature on spatial patterns and environmental correlates of human cases of LD and the vector ticks, Ixodes scapularis in the northeastern and midwestern United States and Ixodes pacificus in the western United States. The results of this review highlight a need for a more standardized and comprehensive approach to studying the spatial dynamics of the LD system. Specifically, we found that the only environmental variable consistently associated with increased LD risk and incidence was the presence of forests. However, the reasons why some forests are associated with higher risk and incidence than others are still poorly understood. We suspect that the discordance among studies is due, in part, to the rapid developments in both conceptual and technological aspects of spatial ecology hastening the obsolescence of earlier approaches. Significant progress in identifying the determinants of spatial variation in LD risk and incidence requires that: (1) existing knowledge of the biology of the individual components of each LD system is utilized in the development of spatial models; (2) spatial data are collected over longer periods of time; (3) data collection and analysis among regions are more standardized; and (4) the effect of the same environmental variables is tested at multiple spatial scales.     

First U.S. record of the hard tick Ixodes (Pholeoixodes) gregsoni Lindquist, Wu, and Redner

Ixodes (Pholeoixodes) gregsoni Lindquist, Wu, and Redner, a species of hard tick described in 1999 in Canada, was recovered from a harvested fisher (Martes pennanti Erxleben) and a domestic cat (Felis silvestris catus Ragni and Randi) in Vermont in 2001 and from harvested mink (Mustela vison Schreber) in Maine in 2003. These samples are the first records of this species within the United States. Although knowledge of this tick's natural history and distribution are still preliminary, these records indicate a possible greater distribution for I. gregsoni than initially perceived. Although its status as a disease vector is presently unknown, natural resource professionals should be aware of the possibility of this tick's occurrence in the northeastern United States.     

Molecular Epidemiology of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses from Pakistan in 2009-2010

Background

In early 2009, a novel influenza A(H1N1) virus that emerged in Mexico and United States rapidly disseminated worldwide. The spread of this virus caused considerable morbidity with over 18000 recorded deaths. The new virus was found to be a reassortant containing gene segments from human, avian and swine influenza viruses.

Methods/Results

The first case of human infection with A(H1N1)pdm09 in Pakistan was detected on 18^th June 2009. Since then, 262 laboratory-confirmed cases have been detected during various outbreaks with 29 deaths (as of 31^st August 2010). The peak of the epidemic was observed in December with over 51% of total respiratory cases positive for influenza. Representative isolates from Pakistan viruses were sequenced and analyzed antigenically. Sequence analysis of genes coding for surface glycoproteins HA and NA showed high degree of high levels of sequence identity with corresponding genes of regional viruses circulating South East Asia. All tested viruses were sensitive to Oseltamivir in the Neuraminidase Inhibition assays.

Conclusions

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses from Pakistan form a homogenous group of viruses. Their HA genes belong to clade 7 and show antigenic profile similar to the vaccine strain A/California/07/2009. These isolates do not show any amino acid changes indicative of high pathogenicity and virulence. It is imperative to continue monitoring of these viruses for identification of potential variants of high virulence or drug resistance.     

Transmission potential of chikungunya virus and control measures: the case of Italy

During summer 2007 Italy has experienced an epidemic caused by Chikungunya virus - the first large outbreak documented in a temperate climate country - with approximately 161 laboratory confirmed cases concentrated in two bordering villages in North-Eastern Italy comprising 3,968 inhabitants. The seroprevalence was recently estimated to be 10.2%. In this work we provide estimates of the transmission potential of the virus and we assess the efficacy of the measures undertaken by public health authorities to control the epidemic spread. To such aim, we developed a model describing the temporal dynamics of the competent vector, known as Aedes albopictus, explicitly depending on climatic factors, coupled to an epidemic transmission model describing the spread of the epidemic in both humans and mosquitoes. The cumulative number of notified cases predicted by the model was 185 on average (95% CI 117-278), in good agreement with observed data. The probability of observing a major outbreak after the introduction of an infective human case was estimated to be in the range of 32%-76%. We found that the basic reproduction number was in the range of 1.8-6 but it could have been even larger, depending on the density of mosquitoes, which in turn depends on seasonal meteorological effects, besides other local abiotic factors. These results confirm the increasing risk of tropical vector-borne diseases in temperate climate countries, as a consequence of globalization. However, our results show that an epidemic can be controlled by performing a timely intervention, even if the transmission potential of Chikungunya virus is sensibly high.     

Vector Competence of American Mosquitoes for Three Strains of Zika Virus

In 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV; Flaviviridae; Flavivirus) emerged in the Americas, causing millions of infections in dozens of countries. The rapid spread of the virus and the association with disease outcomes such as Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly make understanding transmission dynamics essential. Currently, there are no reports of vector competence (VC) of American mosquitoes for ZIKV isolates from the Americas. Further, it is not clear whether ZIKV strains from other genetic lineages can be transmitted by American Aedes aegypti populations, and whether the scope of the current epidemic is in part facilitated by viral factors such as enhanced replicative fitness or increased vector competence. Therefore, we characterized replication of three ZIKV strains, one from each of the three phylogenetic clades in several cell lines and assessed their abilities to be transmitted by Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. Additionally, laboratory colonies of different Culex spp. were infected with an American outbreak strain of ZIKV to assess VC. Replication rates were variable and depended on virus strain, cell line and MOI. African strains used in this study outcompeted the American strain in vitro in both mammalian and mosquito cell culture. West and East African strains of ZIKV tested here were more efficiently transmitted by Ae. aegypti from Mexico than was the currently circulating American strain of the Asian lineage. Long-established laboratory colonies of Culex mosquitoes were not efficient ZIKV vectors. These data demonstrate the capacity for additional ZIKV strains to infect and replicate in American Aedes mosquitoes and suggest that neither enhanced virus replicative fitness nor virus adaptation to local vector mosquitoes seems likely to explain the extent and intensity of ZIKV transmission in the Americas.     

Implications of seasonal variation in nitrate export from forested ecosystems: a review from the hydrological perspective of ecosystem dynamics

In recent decades, the seasonal variation in NO₃ ^? discharge from forest ecosystems has been used increasingly by ecologists and hydrologists as a diagnostic indicator of the nutrient status of ecosystems. Major factors underlying the seasonal patterns of stream NO₃ ^? concentration include seasonal variations in (1) ecosystem nutrient demand, (2) solute transport capability of the hydrological condition, and (3) in-stream nutrient usage and supply. In this article I show how case studies have helped elucidate the dominant controlling factors by comparing data from Japanese catchments with previously compiled data from studies in North America and Europe. Moreover, I explain the different influences that hydrological and biogeochemical controls exert in regions with rainy (Japan) and dry (northeastern United States and Europe) summers. The seasonal variation in hydrological conditions is the predominant controlling factor in Japanese forests, whereas nutrient demand may predominate in the northeastern United States and Europe. I emphasize the importance of comparing seasonal patterns among regions with differing climates to obtain more universal explanations of seasonal variations in NO₃ ^?-related biogeochemical and hydrological dynamics in a forest ecosystem. In addition, multi-scale investigations will be needed to provide insight into the relative contributions of hillslope biogeochemical effects and in-stream biological activities.     

Molecular epidemiology of A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 influenza virus during a single epidemic season in the United States

To determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of influenza A virus during a single epidemic, we examined whole-genome sequences of 284 A/H1N1 and 69 A/H3N2 viruses collected across the continental United States during the 2006-2007 influenza season, representing the largest study of its kind undertaken to date. A phylogenetic analysis revealed that multiple clades of both A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 entered and co-circulated in the United States during this season, even in localities that are distant from major metropolitan areas, and with no clear pattern of spatial spread. In addition, co-circulating clades of the same subtype exchanged genome segments through reassortment, producing both a minor clade of A/H3N2 viruses that appears to have re-acquired sensitivity to the adamantane class of antiviral drugs, as well as a likely antigenically distinct A/H1N1 clade that became globally dominant following this season. Overall, the co-circulation of multiple viral clades during the 2006-2007 epidemic season revealed patterns of spatial spread that are far more complex than observed previously, and suggests a major role for both migration and reassortment in shaping the epidemiological dynamics of human influenza A virus.     

Predicting the Mosquito Species and Vertebrate Species Involved in the Theoretical Transmission of Rift Valley Fever Virus in the United States

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne virus in the family Bunyaviridiae that has spread throughout continental Africa to Madagascar and the Arabian Peninsula. The establishment of RVFV in North America would have serious consequences for human and animal health in addition to a significant economic impact on the livestock industry. Published and unpublished data on RVFV vector competence, vertebrate host competence, and mosquito feeding patterns from the United States were combined to quantitatively implicate mosquito vectors and vertebrate hosts that may be important to RVFV transmission in the United States. A viremia-vector competence relationship based on published mosquito transmission studies was used to calculate a vertebrate host competence index which was then combined with mosquito blood feeding patterns to approximate the vector and vertebrate amplification fraction, defined as the relative contribution of the mosquito or vertebrate host to pathogen transmission. Results implicate several Aedes spp. mosquitoes and vertebrates in the order Artiodactyla as important hosts for RVFV transmission in the U.S. Moreover, this study identifies critical gaps in knowledge which would be necessary to complete a comprehensive analysis identifying the different contributions of mosquitoes and vertebrates to potential RVFV transmission in the U.S. Future research should focus on (1) the dose-dependent relationship between viremic exposure and the subsequent infectiousness of key mosquito species, (2) evaluation of vertebrate host competence for RVFV among North American mammal species, with particular emphasis on the order Artiodactyla, and (3) identification of areas with a high risk for RVFV introduction so data on local vector and host populations can help generate geographically appropriate amplification fraction estimates.     

Association of the invasive Haemaphysalis longicornis tick with vertebrate hosts,other native tick vectors,and tick-borne pathogens in New York City,USA

Haemaphysalis longicornis, the Asian longhorned tick, is an invasive ixodid tick that has rapidly spread across the northeastern and southeastern regions of the United States since first reported in 2017. The emergence of H. longicornis presents a potential threat for livestock, wildlife, and human health as the host associations and vector potential of this invasive pest in the United States are poorly understood. Previous field data from the United States has shown that H. longicornis was not associated with natural populations of small mammals or birds, but they show a preference for medium sized mammals in laboratory experiments. Therefore, medium and large sized mammals were sampled on Staten Island, New York, United States, to determine H. longicornis host associations and vector potential for a range of human and veterinary pathogens. A total of 97 hosts were sampled and five species of tick (Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, H. longicornis, Ixodes scapularis, Ixodes cookei) were found feeding concurrently on these hosts. Haemaphysalis longicornis was found in the highest proportions compared with other native tick species on raccoons (55.4%), Virginia opossums (28.9%), and white-tailed deer (11.5%). Tissue, blood, and engorged larvae were tested for 17 different pathogens using a nanoscale PCR platform. Infection with five pathogens (Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Rickettsia spp., Mycoplasma haemocanis, and Bartonella spp.) was detected in host samples, but no pathogens were found in any larval samples. These results suggest that although large and medium sized mammals feed large numbers of H. longicornis ticks in the environment, there is presently a low potential for H. longicornis to acquire pathogens from these wildlife hosts.     

Geographic uniformity of the Lyme disease spirochete (Borrelia burgdorferi) and its shared history with tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) in the Northeastern United States

Over 80% of reported cases of Lyme disease in the United States occur in coastal regions of northeastern and mid-Atlantic states. The genetic structure of the Lyme disease spirochete (Borrelia burgdorferi) and its main tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) was studied concurrently and comparatively by sampling natural populations of I. scapularis ticks along the East Coast from 1996 to 1998. Borrelia is genetically highly diverse at the outer surface protein ospC. Since Borrelia is highly clonal, the ospC alleles can be used to define clones. A newly designed reverse line blotting (RLB) assay shows that up to 10 Borrelia clones can infect a single tick. The clone frequencies in Borrelia populations are the same across the Northeast. On the other hand, I. scapularis populations show strong regional divergence (among northeastern, mid-Atlantic, and southern states) as well as local differentiation. The high genetic diversity within Borrelia populations and the disparity in the genetic structure between Borrelia and its tick vector are likely consequences of strong balancing selection on local Borrelia clones. Demographically, both Borrelia and I. scapularis populations in the Northeast show the characteristics of a species that has recently expanded from a population bottleneck. Major geological and ecological events, such as the last glacial maximum (18,000 years ago) and the modern-day expansion of tick habitats, are likely causes of the observed "founder effects" for the two organisms in the Northeast. We therefore conclude that the genetic structure of B. burgdorferi has been intimately shaped by the natural history of its main vector, the northern lineage of I. scapularis ticks.     

West Nile virus recombinant DNA vaccine protects mouse and horse from virus challenge and expresses in vitro a noninfectious recombinant antigen that can be used in enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays

Introduction of West Nile (WN) virus into the United States in 1999 created major human and animal health concerns. Currently, no human or veterinary vaccine is available to prevent WN viral infection, and mosquito control is the only practical strategy to combat the spread of disease. Starting with a previously designed eukaryotic expression vector, we constructed a recombinant plasmid (pCBWN) that expressed the WN virus prM and E proteins. A single intramuscular injection of pCBWN DNA induced protective immunity, preventing WN virus infection in mice and horses. Recombinant plasmid-transformed COS-1 cells expressed and secreted high levels of WN virus prM and E proteins into the culture medium. The medium was treated with polyethylene glycol to concentrate proteins. The resultant, containing high-titered recombinant WN virus antigen, proved to be an excellent alternative to the more traditional suckling-mouse brain WN virus antigen used in the immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibody-capture and indirect IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. This recombinant antigen has great potential to become the antigen of choice and will facilitate the standardization of reagents and implementation of WN virus surveillance in the United States and elsewhere.     

Modeling Dynamic Introduction of Chikungunya Virus in the United States

Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection of humans that previously was confined to regions in central Africa. However, during this century, the virus has shown surprising potential for geographic expansion as it invaded other countries including more temperate regions. With no vaccine and no specific treatment, the main control strategy for Chikungunya remains preventive control of mosquito populations. In consideration for the risk of Chikungunya introduction to the US, we developed a model for disease introduction based on virus introduction by one individual. Our study combines a climate-based mosquito population dynamics stochastic model with an epidemiological model to identify temporal windows that have epidemic risk. We ran this model with temperature data from different locations to study the geographic sensitivity of epidemic potential. We found that in locations with marked seasonal variation in temperature there also was a season of epidemic risk matching the period of the year in which mosquito populations survive and grow. In these locations controlling mosquito population sizes might be an efficient strategy. But, in other locations where the temperature supports mosquito development all year the epidemic risk is high and (practically) constant. In these locations, mosquito population control alone might not be an efficient disease control strategy and other approaches should be implemented to complement it. Our results strongly suggest that, in the event of an introduction and establishment of Chikungunya in the US, endemic and epidemic regions would emerge initially, primarily defined by environmental factors controlling annual mosquito population cycles. These regions should be identified to plan different intervention measures. In addition, reducing vector: human ratios can lower the probability and magnitude of outbreaks for regions with strong seasonal temperature patterns. This is the first model to consider Chikungunya risk in the US and can be applied to other vector borne diseases.