The epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus in South Africa

We review the epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa where the prevalence of HIV infection is among the highest in the world. The epidemic reached South Africa relatively recently but the prevalence of infection has increased rapidly and there are significant differences among provinces. Although few 15-year-old people are infected the prevalence increases rapidly with age thereafter, especially among women. The prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2 exceeds that of HIV and curable sexually transmitted infections are common. 'Circular migration' may help to explain the high rates and rapid spread of HIV in the region. The incidence of tuberculosis has increased dramatically as a result of the HIV epidemic. Antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of vertical transmission has been shown to be effective in local conditions but transmission through breast-feeding remains problematical. While some epidemiological models have been developed, much more needs to be done in this regard in order to plan, coordinate and evaluate an effective response to the epidemic. We conclude by discussing some of the research that is needed and steps that could be taken to reduce the continued spread of the infection.     

HIV epidemics in Africa: what explains the variations in HIV prevalence?

There are large differences in the prevalence of HIV infection between different regions in sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from less than 10% in pregnant women in most of West Africa, to over 25% in pregnant women in large cities in Eastern and Southern Africa. These differences in HIV prevalence are in many instances due to differences in rate of spread of the virus. The multicenter study on factors determining the differential spread of HIV in four African cities tried to identify factors that could explain differences in spread of HIV between different regions in sub-Saharan Africa. The study was conducted in four cities, including two cities with a relatively low HIV prevalence (Cotonou in Bénin and Yaoundé in Cameroon) and two cities with a high HIV prevalence (Kisumu in Kenya and Ndola in Zambia). The difference in HIV prevalence between the four cities could not be explained by differences in sexual behavior. Any differences in sexual behavior were outweighed by differences in factors that influence HIV transmission, i.e. male circumcision and HSV-2 infection. These findings have important implications for the design of interventions.     

HIV infection in Russia and Commonwealth of Independent States: current situation and prospective

The dynamics of the spread of HIV infection in Russia and the CIS countries is presented. The relationship between the spread of HIV infection and an increase in the number of injection drug users is substantiated. The factors inhibiting the spread of the epidemic of HIV/AIDS in Russia and the CIS countries are analyzed with due regard to the world experience. Attention is paid to the development of the epidemic situation in HIV infection due to, similarly to Russia and to more than 100 countries of the world, drug addiction. The effectiveness of the activity of the Russian health service organs in controlling this epidemic is emphasized. The prospects of prophylactic measures for controlling HIV infection in Russia and the CIS countries are determined.     

Tuberculosis and HIV: a deadly interaction.

The spread of the HIV epidemic has been one of the major factors contributing to the worldwide resurgence of the tuberculosis epidemic. It was estimated that in 1997 8% of global tuberculosis cases may be attributed to HIV infection. The highest burden of HIV-associated tuberculosis is concentrated in resource-poor countries. HIV infection increases the individual's susceptibility to tuberculosis by impairing immune response to mycobacterial infection. In addition, HIV-associated tuberculosis is more difficult both to diagnose and to treat. A strong international commitment to the development of innovative strategies of diagnosis, treatment, and the prevention and integration between tuberculosis and HIV prevention programs are urgently needed to face the threat of HIV-associated tuberculosis.     

Serial human passage of simian immunodeficiency virus by unsterile injections and the emergence of epidemic human immunodeficiency virus in Africa

There is compelling evidence that both human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) types emerged from two dissimilar simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIVs) in separate geographical regions of Africa. Each of the two HIVs has its own simian progenitor and specific genetic precursor, and all of the primates that carry these SIVs have been in close contact with humans for thousands of years without the emergence of epidemic HIV. To date no plausible mechanism has been identified to account for the sudden emergence in the mid-20th century of these epidemic HIVs. In this study we examine the conditions needed for SIV to complete the genetic transition from individual human SIV infections to epidemic HIV in humans. The genetic distance from SIV to HIV and the mutational activity needed to achieve this degree of adaptation to human hosts is placed within a mathematical model to estimate the probabilities of SIV completing this transition within a single SIV-infected human host. We found that the emergence of even one epidemic HIV strain, following a single human exposure to SIV, was very unlikely. And the probability of four or more such transitions (i.e. HIV-1 groups M, O and HIV-2 subtypes A and B) occurring in a brief period is vanishingly small. We conclude that SIV cannot become a zoonosis, but requires adaptive mutations to become HIV. Some modern event must have aided in the transition of SIV to HIV. Our research indicates that serial passage of partially adapted SIV between humans could produce the series of cumulative mutations sufficient for the emergence of epidemic HIV strains. We examined the rapid growth of unsterile injections in Africa beginning in the 1950s as a biologically plausible event capable of greatly increasing serial human passage of SIV and generating HIV by a series of multiple genetic transitions. We conclude that increased unsterile injecting in Africa during the period 1950-1970 provided the agent for SIV human infections to emerge as epidemic HIV in the modern era.     

The HIV epidemic: medical and social challenges

The sudden appearance, rapid spread, and devastating clinical impact of HIV infection in Africa, Europe and North America has created a medical problem unprecedented in the modern era. HIV is sexually transmitted, afflicts sexual and racial minorities in developed countries, and appears likely to be fatal and incurable in a majority of infected people. Its epidemiology (transmission and natural history) and clinical manifestations have been well described, but treatment of HIV remains minimally effective, creating only a short respite from progressive deterioration. In the absence of effective vaccination, HIV will continue to spread, abetted by a long period of asymptomatic carriage during which carriers are infectious. It has spread internationally to most undeveloped countries aided by fear and ignorance. The problem will resist simple technological solutions and adversely impact the lives of tens of millions of people in these areas over the next several decades. In developed countries HIV will strain medical resources and kill several million people before the end of the century. Despite the tremendous problems created by the AIDS epidemic, it has driven a remarkable expansion of virologic and immunologic understanding which promises to ultimately lead to control of not only AIDS, but a variety of other serious diseases. The following reviews of pivotal issues in AIDS research document this progress.     

HIV Competition Dynamics over Sexual Networks: First Comer Advantage Conserves Founder Effects

Outside Africa, the global phylogeography of HIV is characterized by compartmentalized local epidemics that are typically dominated by a single subtype, which indicates strong founder effects. We hypothesized that the competition of viral strains at the epidemic level may involve an advantage of the resident strain that was the first to colonize a population. Such an effect would slow down the invasion of new strains, and thus also the diversification of the epidemic. We developed a stochastic modelling framework to simulate HIV epidemics over dynamic contact networks. We simulated epidemics in which the second strain was introduced into a population where the first strain had established a steady-state epidemic, and assessed whether, and on what time scale, the second strain was able to spread in the population. Simulations were parameterized based on empirical data; we tested scenarios with varying levels of overall prevalence. The spread of the second strain occurred on a much slower time scale compared with the initial expansion of the first strain. With strains of equal transmission efficiency, the second strain was unable to invade on a time scale relevant for the history of the HIV pandemic. To become dominant over a time scale of decades, the second strain needed considerable (>25%) advantage in transmission efficiency over the resident strain. The inhibition effect was weaker if the second strain was introduced while the first strain was still in its growth phase. We also tested how possible mechanisms of interference (inhibition of superinfection, depletion of highly connected hubs in the network, one-time acute peak of infectiousness) contribute to the inhibition effect. Our simulations confirmed a strong first comer advantage in the competition dynamics of HIV at the population level, which may explain the global phylogeography of the virus and may influence the future evolution of the pandemic.     

The AIDS epidemic: profiles of development

As all HIV-infected subjects become virus carriers, the epidemic will not attain a "steady state" until the number of deletions (from death and other factors) equals or outnumbers that of new cases, i.e. each HIV-infected subject transmits the infection to only one subject in the course of his lifespan. A full stop of all spreading of HIV will most likely require worldwide vaccination. By simple mathematical models it is shown that calculation of the number of HIV infected individuals based on the number of AIDS cases is very uncertain. The ratio of HIV infected subjects to AIDS cases is greatly influenced by the length of the incubation period and the case doubling time. Since the growth of the epidemic is exponential, all efforts to control the epidemic should be continuously intensified as single measures will only retard the rate of spread. The effect of saturation/deletion on the number of susceptible individuals is insignificant in this phase of the epidemic, except in small groups at special risk.     

Molecular epidemiological analysis of the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the Novosibirsk region

The dynamics of the spread of individual subtypes of type 1 HIV (HIV-1), circulating in the Novosibirsk region during the epidemic rise of HIV infection was under study. The epidemic of HIV-1 in Novosibirsk has a pattern similar to that in Russia as a whole. At the initial stage of epidemics multiple sources of virus determine the heterogeneity of the isolated subtypes of HIV-1. Then the parenteral route of HIV transmission, connected with the intravenous use of narcotic drugs, becomes dominant. Recently the spread of HIV-1 from the group of intravenous drug users to other groups of the population has been observed. In the circulation of HIV-1 among drug users the leading role was shown to belong to subtype A, which ensures its rapid spread and dominating role in the epidemic process. Further spread of the HIV-1 epidemic is expected to proceed in parallel to the spread of viral hepatitis, sexually transmitted diseases and drug addiction. Thus, HIV-1, subtype A, may be assumed to be dominant in the Novosibirsk region in the nearest future.     

HIV infection in India: Epidemiology, molecular epidemiology and pathogenesis

The year 1986 saw first case of HIV infection as well as first report of AIDS case in India. Since then the epidemic has spread throughout the country. In the recent years there is evidence of epidemic being stabilized with decrease in new infections reported from some parts of the country. The absolute number of HIV infections in the country is expected to be close to 2.5 million and National AIDS Control Programme, phase III is geared to contain the epidemic. HIV viruses circulating in India predominantly belong to HIV-1 subtype C. However, there have been occasional reports of HIV-1 subtype A and B. Matter of concern is reports of A/C and B/C mosaic viruses that are being reported from different parts of the country. The data on HIV drug resistance from India is rather limited. Most of the studies have shown that the virus strains from drug naïve patients do not show significant level of drug resistance mutations. The few immunological studies in Indian patients show that the Indian HIV infected patients show both HIV-specific CTL responses as well as neutralizing antibody response. Mapping of CTL epitopes showed that while Indian patients identify same regions of Gag antigen as recognized by South African subtype C infected patients, some regions are uniquely recognized by Indian patients. There are very few studies on host genetic factors in India in context with HIV infection. However there are evidences reported of association of host genetic factors such as HLA types and haplotypes and HIV disease.     

Development,Calibration and Performance of an HIV Transmission Model Incorporating Natural History and Behavioral Patterns: Application in South Africa

Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values in the CDM and calibrated to HIV prevalence in South Africa pre-antiretroviral therapy. Using a multi-step fitting procedure based on Bayesian melding methodology, we performed 264,225 simulations of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and identified 3,750 parameter sets that created an epidemic and had behavioral characteristics representative of a South African population pre-ART. Of these parameter sets, 564 contributed 90% of the likelihood weight to the fit, and closely reproduced the UNAIDS HIV prevalence curve in South Africa from 1990–2002. The calibration was sensitive to changes in the rate of formation of short-duration partnerships and to the partnership acquisition rate among high-risk individuals, both of which impacted concurrency. Runs that closely fit to historical HIV prevalence reflect diverse ranges for individual parameter values and predict a wide range of possible steady-state prevalence in the absence of interventions, illustrating the value of the calibration procedure and utility of the model for evaluating interventions. This model, which includes detailed behavioral patterns and HIV natural history, closely fits HIV prevalence estimates.     

Epidemic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among intravenous drug users (IVDU)

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is epidemic among intravenous drug users (IVDU), particularly in the northeastern United States. IVDU are playing a critical role in the spread of HIV by infecting their heterosexual partners and children, as well as their needle-sharing partners. The epidemiology of HIV infection among IVDU is reviewed here, including a compilation of seroprevalence data. Relevant determinants of the future spread of HIV among IVDU are discussed, including the major risk factors for HIV seropositivity, the modes of HIV transmission, and aspects of the natural history of HIV infection in IVDU. The public health policy implications of these issues include the need for education of adolescents and the general public about the risks of drug injection and heterosexual intercourse with IVDU, as well as motivation of IVDU to stop injecting, never share injection paraphernalia, or, at least, clean needles effectively.     

Assessing the effects of drug misuse on HIV/AIDS prevalence

Drug misuse (injecting drug users-IDU) has been recognized to have a significant effect on the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic. A deterministic model to assess the contribution of drug misuse and sex in the spread of HIV/AIDS is investigated. The threshold parameters of the model are determined and stabilities are analysed. Analysis of the reproduction number has shown that increase in drug misuse results in an increase in HIV infections. Furthermore, numerical simulations of the model show that drug misuse enhances HIV transmission and progression to AIDS. Thus, in a population with intravenous drug users, advocating for safe sex alone will not be enough to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic.     

Aids, Policy and Bioethics: Ethical Dilemmas Facing China in HIV Prevention

The present situation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is very grim in China. The probability of China becoming a country with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS cannot be excluded because there have been factors which promote the wide spread of HIV if we fail to take timely action to prevent it at the opportune moment. However, China's HIV prevention policy is inadequate. Health professionals and programmers believed that they could take a conventional public health approach to cope with the HIV epidemic. They simply ignored the fact that HIV infection is an epidemic so special that their approach is not effective to deter the epidemic. Many health professionals and programmers bypassed ethical issues that had emerged in the prevention of the HIV epidemic. Even some health educators, sexologists and officials believe that `AIDS is the punishment for promiscuity', and this belief has led to discrimination and stigmatization of AIDS patients, HIV positive people, their family members and high risk groups. Although homosexuality is not illegal, the police can always find any reason to detain homosexuals. A difficult ethical issue is about the laws prohibiting prostitution and drug use in China which force prostitutes and intravenous drug users underground, giving them no chance to access information, education and the services needed to protect them. The dilemma facing China is whether to stay with a restrictive policy for the reason of ideology cleansing or to turn to a more supportive policy. It is necessary to have some change in the ethical framework to evaluate the action in HIV prevention. Tolerance should be the first ethical principle.     

AIDS, policy and bioethics: ethical dilemmas facing China in HIV prevention: a report from China

The present situation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is very grim in China. The probability of China becoming a country with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS cannot be excluded because there have been factors which promote the wide spread of HIV if we fail to take timely action to prevent it at the opportune moment. However, China's HIV prevention policy is inadequate. Health professionals and programmers believed that they could take a conventional public health approach to cope with the HIV epidemic. They simply ignored the fact that HIV infection is an epidemic so special that their approach is not effective to deter the epidemic. Many health professionals and programmers bypassed ethical issues that had emerged in the prevention of the HIV epidemic. Even some health educators, sexologists and officials believe that `AIDS is the punishment for promiscuity', and this belief has led to discrimination and stigmatization of AIDS patients, HIV positive people, their family members and high risk groups. Although homosexuality is not illegal, the police can always find any reason to detain homosexuals. A difficult ethical issue is about the laws prohibiting prostitution and drug use in China which force prostitutes and intravenous drug users underground, giving them no chance to access information, education and the services needed to protect them. The dilemma facing China is whether to stay with a restrictive policy for the reason of ideology cleansing or to turn to a more supportive policy. It is necessary to have some change in the ethical framework to evaluate the action in HIV prevention. Tolerance should be the first ethical principle.     

UN warns that AIDS deaths are set to reach record level

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) warns that AIDS deaths are set to reach a record level during the year 1999. Estimates from UNAIDS reveal that 2.6 million people will die from diseases related to HIV and AIDS during 1999--a higher global total than any year since the beginning of the epidemic. In addition, 32.4 million adults and 1.2 million children are estimated to be living with HIV infection by the end of 1999. About 95% of those infected live in the developing world, and this proportion was predicted to rise even further as infection rates continued to rise in countries where poverty, poor health systems, and limited resources for prevention and care fueled the spread of the virus. The highest prevalence of the infection is seen in sub-Saharan Africa; close to 70% of the global total of HIV-positive people come from this region. However, the challenge also remains in industrialized countries, where unsafe sexual behavior and drug injection are practiced.     

Assessing the Potential Impact of Hormonal-Based Contraceptives on HIV Transmission Dynamics Among Heterosexuals

HIV susceptibility linked to hormonal contraception (HC) has been studied before, but with mixed results. Reports from some of the recent findings have prompted the World Health Organisation to encourage women who use HC to concurrently use condoms in order to prevent HIV infection in the light of possible increased HIV risk of infection associated with hormone-based contraceptives. A two-sex HIV model classifying women into three risk groups consisting of individuals who use condoms, natural methods, and hormone-based contraceptives is formulated and analysed to assess the possible effects of various birth control strategies on the transmission dynamics of the disease. Our model results showed that women who use HC could be key drivers of the epidemic and that their increased infectivity may be critical in driving the epidemic. Women who use hormone-based contraceptives potentially act as a core group from which men get infected and in turn transmit the disease to other population groups. We fitted the model to HIV prevalence data for Zimbabwe reported by UNAIDS and Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care and used the model fit to project HIV prevalence. Predictions using HIV data for Zimbabwe suggest that a hypothesised increase in susceptibility and infectivity of two-, three-, and fourfold would result in a 25, 50, and 100% increase in baseline HIV prevalence projection, respectively, thus suggesting possible increased disease burden even in countries reporting plausible HIV prevalence declines. Although a possible causal relationship between HIV susceptibility and HC use remains subject of continuing scientific probe, its inclusion as part of birth control strategy has been shown in this study, to possibly increase HIV transmission. If proven, HC use may potentially explain the inordinate spread of HIV within the sub-Saharan Africa region and therefore compel for urgent assessment with a view to reorienting birth control methods in use in settings with generalised epidemics.     

A policy to control the spread of HIV infection

Prevention of transmission of HIV infection is the most important public health concern of the AIDS epidemic. To date, unfortunately, we have failed to contain the epidemic. The increasingly rapid spread of HIV into the IV drug-abusing population and subsequent heterosexual transmission represent a further failure of the public health system. Current organization of the public health programs, especially the lack of independence and adequate financial and personnel support, is an extremely serious problem. More funding may not be the answer, unless there is better organization. Identification of infected individuals and a vigorous education program must be implemented. HIV antibody-positive individuals should be followed carefully in order to evaluate the risk factors for AIDS and efficacy of specific interventions.     

Epidemiology of Kaposi’s sarcoma in sub-Saharan Africa

Kaposi’s sarcoma (KS) has become a common AIDS-defining cancer in sub-Saharan Africa. Kaposi’s sarcoma-associated human herpesvirus strongly modulated by HIV-related immune suppression are the principal causes of this cancer. No other risk factors have been identified as playing a strong role. HIV prevention programs and good coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in developed countries resulted in a remarkable decline in HIV-KS incidence and better KS prognosis. By contrast, in sub-Saharan Africa, population ART rollout has lagged, but clinical studies have shown positive results in reduction of KS incidence and better KS prognosis. However, the effect of ART rollout in relation to population KS incidence is unclear. We describe the incidence of KS in sub-Saharan Africa, in four time-periods, (1) before 1980 (before HIV/AIDS era); (2) 1981–2000 (early HIV/AIDS era, limited or no ART coverage); (3) 2001–2010 (early ART coverage period); and (4) 2011–2016 (fair to good ART coverage period). We used KS incidence data available from WHO-International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) publications and the Africa Cancer Registry Network. National HIV prevalence and ART coverage data were derived from UNAIDS/WHO. A rapid increase in KS incidence was observed throughout sub-Saharan Africa as the HIV epidemic progressed, reaching peak incidences in Period 2 (pre-ART rollout) of 50.8 in males and 20.3 per 100 000 in females (Zimbabwe, Harare). The overall unweighted average decline in KS incidence between 2000 and 2010 and 2011–2016 was 27%, but this decline was not statistically significant across the region. ART rollout coincides with a decline in KS incidence across several regions in sub-Saharan Africa. The importance of other risk factors such as reductions in HIV incidence could not be ascertained.     

Phylodynamics of HIV-1 Subtype C Epidemic in East Africa

The HIV-1 subtype C accounts for an important fraction of HIV infections in east Africa, but little is known about the genetic characteristics and evolutionary history of this epidemic. Here we reconstruct the origin and spatiotemporal dynamics of the major HIV-1 subtype C clades circulating in east Africa. A large number (n = 1,981) of subtype C pol sequences were retrieved from public databases to explore relationships between strains from the east, southern and central African regions. Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis of those sequences revealed that most (>70%) strains from east Africa segregated in a single regional-specific monophyletic group, here called C_EA. A second major Ethiopian subtype C lineage and a large collection of minor Kenyan and Tanzanian subtype C clades of southern African origin were also detected. A Bayesian coalescent-based method was then used to reconstruct evolutionary parameters and migration pathways of the C_EA African lineage. This analysis indicates that the C_EA clade most probably originated in Burundi around the early 1960s, and later spread to Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, giving rise to major country-specific monophyletic sub-clusters between the early 1970s and early 1980s. The results presented here demonstrate that a substantial proportion of subtype C infections in east Africa resulted from dissemination of a single HIV local variant, probably originated in Burundi during the 1960s. Burundi was the most important hub of dissemination of that subtype C clade in east Africa, fueling the origin of new local epidemics in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Subtype C lineages of southern African origin have also been introduced in east Africa, but seem to have had a much more restricted spread.