Land-Use Change and Stream Water Fluxes: Decadal Dynamics in Watershed Nitrate Exports

Stream water exports of nutrients and pollutants to water bodies integrate internal and external watershed processes that vary in both space and time. In this paper, we explore nitrate (NO₃) fluxes for the 326 km² mixed-land use Fall Creek watershed in central New York for 1972–2005, and consider internal factors such as changes in land use/land cover, dynamics in agricultural production and fertilizer use, and external factors such as atmospheric deposition. Segmented regression analysis was applied independently to dormant and growing seasons for three portions of the period of record, which indicated that stream water NO₃ concentrations increased in both dormant and growing seasons from the 1970s to the early 1990s at all volumes of streamflow discharge. Dormant season NO₃ concentrations then decreased at all flow conditions between the periods 1987–1993 and 1994–2005. Results from a regression-based stream water loading model (LOADEST) normalized to mean annual concentrations showed annual modeled NO₃ concentration in stream water increased by 34% during the 1970s and 1980s (from 1.15 to 1.54 mg l⁻¹), peaked in about 1989, and then decreased by 29% through 2005 (to 1.09 mg l⁻¹). Annual precipitation had the strongest correlation with stream water NO₃ concentrations (r = −0.62, P = 0.01). Among land use factors, corn production for grain was the variable most highly correlated to stream water NO₃ concentrations (r = 0.53, P = 0.01). The strongest associative trend determined using Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) was found between stream water NO₃ concentrations and N-equivalence of dairy production (Bonferroni adjusted P value = 0.0003). Large increases in dairy production were coincident with declining nitrate concentrations over the past decade, which suggest that dairy management practices may have improved in the watershed. However, because dairy production in the Fall Creek watershed has been fueled by large increases in feed imports, the environmental costs of feed production have likely been externalized to other watersheds.     

全球气候变化对沈阳地区春玉米生长的可能影响

利用玉米（Ｚｅａ ｍａｙｓ Ｌ．）生长生理生态学模拟模型（ＭＰＥＳＭ）,分别模拟了未来气候变化的１２种气候条件下（ＣＯ２浓度倍增,平均气温上升１．５℃、３．０℃和４．５℃,降水量增加２０％、减少２０％、减少４０％和降水量不变）,沈阳地区土壤湿度、玉米发育和玉米生长的变化,并与当前条件下进行了比较,以评价玉米生长对各气候因子变化的敏感性和全球气候变化下沈阳地区春玉米的生长趋势。研究表明：土壤湿度对降     

Discretizing a Normal Prior for Change Point Estimation in Switching Regressions

Bayes decision procedures are considered for change point estimation in the simple bilinear segmented model. A discretized normal prior density is employed as the prior distribution for the change point index. Posterior probability functions are developed for this index under a vague prior formulation on the regression parameters. The procedure is applied to an example involving mercury toxicity data.     

A Generic View of Classic Microbial Growth Models

General theoretical aspects are reviewed of models for microbial growth and endogenous metabolism. The focus is on a generic cell model with two components. Growth is represented as the increase of one of these components (the structural scaffolding or 'frame'). A novel feature of the present generic model is the explicit modelling of (partial) metabolic shutdown under conditions where maintenance requirements cannot be met.Two different approaches to mechanistic underpinnings for the classic models are outlined. The first approach is based on a bimolecular reaction between the non-permanent biomass component and the permanent biomass component. The second approach is based on cellular control systems.     

种群增长的分段指数模型及其参数估计

本文给出了种群增长的分段指数模型其中N（t）是在时刻t种群的密度,No=N（t0）,r0和rl是群群的内禀增长率,t0是转变点,H（t-t0）=1,t≥t0,H（t-t0）=0,t＜t0．利用非线性模型的正割法（DUD,Doesn’tusederivatives）,可同时确定模型的所有参数（包括交点t0在内）．并用于描述长爪沙鼠种群动态．     

Improved Estimation of Coefficients in Regression Models with Incomplete Prior Information

The method of mixed regression is considered for the estimation of coefficients in a linear regression model when incomplete prior information is available, and two families of improved estimators stemming from Stein-rule are proposed. Their properties are studied when disturbances are normal but small.     

一个推广增长曲线模型协差阵的最小二乘估计及其优良性

在准正态情形与独立同分布情形下,分别给出了一个推广增长曲线模型中协差阵的最小二乘估计,并得到了最小二乘估计成为一致最小方差不变二次无偏估计的充要条件．     

Stein‐Rule Estimation in Mixed Regression Models

This paper considers a Stein‐rule mixed regression estimator for estimating a normal linear regression model in the presence of stochastic linear constraints. We derive the small disturbance asymptotic bias and risk of the proposed estimator, and analytically compare its risk with other related estimators. A Monte‐Carlo experiment investigates the empirical risk performance of the proposed estimator.     

On the Detection of Unusual Points in Regression

Some procedures, based on studentized residuals and the diagonal elements of the ‘hat’ matrix, for the detection of unusual points in regression are discussed. These procedures are quite simple but effective to uncover unusual structure of the data. Some examples are given.     

Optimal Experimental Design and Accuracy of Parameter Estimation for Nonlinear Regression Models Used in Long-term Selection

An experimental design problem is considered for the analysis of long-term selection experiments with nonlinear regression models. For a 3-parametric exponential regression function whose parameters have also a reasonable biological interpretation approximate formulas for the determination of the necessary number of observations at each generation are constructed in such a way that the half expected length of an (1 — α)-confidence interval for a chosen parameter is not greater than a given value. In this sense the accuracy of the parameter estimators can be described.     

A Selective Method of Estimation of Bacitracin in the Presence of Other Antibiotics and Growth Factors

The plum cankerworm moth, Cystidia couaggaria couaggaria (Geometridae: Ennominae), is a defoliator of Chinese plum trees (Prunus mume). The pheromone components of the female were analyzed by gas chromatography (GC) with an electro-antennographic (EAG) detector and GC coupled with mass spectrometry. The crude pheromone extract included several EAG-active components, i.e., trienyl, dienyl, and saturated hydrocarbons, with a C₂₁–C₂₅ straight chain. The characteristic mass spectra indicated the unsaturated hydrocarbons to be (3Z,6Z,9Z)-3,6,9-trienes and (6Z,9Z)-6,9-dienes. In the fields, mixtures of the synthetic C₂₁ and C₂₃ trienes in a ratio of 2:3 and 1:4 successfully attracted males of this diurnal species during daytime. While the male antennae responded to the C₂₅ triene and saturated hydrocarbons, their synergistic effects were not observed on the male attraction in the fields. Addition of the C₂₁ diene interestingly inhibited the activity of the triene mixture. Males of Cystidia truncangulata, a sympatric diurnal congener of C. c. couaggaria, showed similar EAG responses to the unsaturated hydrocarbons, but no C. truncangulata males were attracted by the lures tested for C. c. couaggaria males, indicating that the identified hydrocarbons comprised the species-specific pheromone of C. c. couaggaria females.     

Estimation of Individual Growth Curves by Empirically Weighted Least Squares

The simultaneous estimation of individual growth curves and a mean growth curve is accomplished by weighted least squares. A polynomial curve is fitted for each individual and the polynomial parameters are linear functions of parameters corresponding to covariates. A simple, computationally efficient variance-covariance estimator is derived. The resultant estimate is used in the weighted least squares estimation. The results are compared to empirical Bayes estimation.     

Regression Techniques for Examining Land Use/Cover Change: A Case Study of a Mediterranean Landscape

In many areas of the northern Mediterranean Basin the abundance of forest and scrubland vegetation is increasing, commensurate with decreases in agricultural land use(s). Much of the land use/cover change (LUCC) in this region is associated with the marginalization of traditional agricultural practices due to ongoing socioeconomic shifts and subsequent ecological change. Regression-based models of LUCC have two purposes: (i) to aid explanation of the processes driving change and/or (ii) spatial projection of the changes themselves. The independent variables contained in the single ‘best’ regression model (that is, that which minimizes variation in the dependent variable) cannot be inferred as providing the strongest causal relationship with the dependent variable. Here, we examine the utility of hierarchical partitioning and multinomial regression models for, respectively, explanation and prediction of LUCC in EU Special Protection Area 56, ‘Encinares del río Alberche y Cofio’ (SPA 56) near Madrid, Spain. Hierarchical partitioning estimates the contribution of regression model variables, both independently and in conjunction with other variables in a model, to the total variance explained by that model and is a tool to isolate important causal variables. By using hierarchical partitioning we find that the combined effects of factors driving land cover transitions varies with land cover classification, with a coarser classification reducing explained variance in LUCC. We use multinomial logistic regression models solely for projecting change, finding that accuracies of maps produced vary by land cover classification and are influenced by differing spatial resolutions of socioeconomic and biophysical data. When examining LUCC in human-dominated landscapes such as those of the Mediterranean Basin, the availability and analysis of spatial data at scales that match causal processes is vital to the performance of the statistical modelling techniques used here.     

Product Cum Difference Method of Estimation Using two Auxiliary Variables

Product method of estimation (MURTHY, 1964) using supplementary information on an auxiliary variable having high negative correlation with the main variable under our study, is well known. In this paper, we propose product-cum-difference method of estimation for the population total and the product of population parameters when supplementary information is available on two auxiliary variables. A comparison of product-cum-difference method of estimation with the usual product method of estimation using single auxiliary character and the estimators by SINGH (1965) for the estimation of product of population parameters has been made along with an empirical study.     

作物生长温度效应的非线性模型及其比较研究

通过严密的数学证明,发现了前人关于作物生长温度效应非线性模型之间的内在联系,修正了有关学者对模型参数定义的局限性,提出了一个通用的作物生长温度效应非线性模型,本研究还将该模型与笔者最近提出的基于高斯方程的非线性模型进行了比较研究,介绍了应用SAS软件求取两个模型相关参数的方法,并以马铃薯生育期模拟为例进行了实证研究,表明这两个模型均有良好的适用性。     

沙地云杉小树高生长与环境条件关系的数量化模型

沙地云杉小树高生长与环境条件关系的数量化模型郑元润徐文铎（中国科学院植物研究所,北京１０００９３）（中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,１１００１５）ＴｈｅＭｏｄｅｌｓｏｆＲｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐｂｅｔｗｅｅｎＨｅｉｇｈｔＧｒｏｗｔｈｏｆＰｉｃｅａｍｏｎｇ...     

用不同模型估计绒山羊早期生长性状遗传参数的比较

利用内蒙古伊盟阿尔巴斯白绒山羊种羊场从1993年至2000年间白绒山羊的早期生长性状(包括出生重、断乳重、日增重和周岁重)的场内测定数据,对4种不同动物模型估计遗传参数的差异进行了比较分析。不同模型中对母体遗传效应和母体环境效应作了不同的考虑：模型I,不考虑母体遗传效应和母体环境效应;模型Ⅱ,仅考虑母体遗传效应;模型Ⅲ,仅考虑母体环境效应;模型Ⅳ,同时考虑母体遗传效应和母体环境效应。利用MTD-FREML程序采用非求导约束最大似然法(DFREML)估计各模型中的方差组分,用似然比检验对不同模型的差异进行检验。结果表明：对于出生重,母体遗传效应和母体环境效应都有极显著的影响,应采用模型Ⅳ进行分析;对于断乳重和日增重,母体遗传效应的影响不显著,而母体环境效应的影响极显著,应采用模型Ⅲ进行分析;对于周岁重,母体环境效应的影响不显著,而母体遗传效应的影响显著,应采用模型Ⅱ进行分析。     

胎儿生长受限模型及其胎盘的病理学观察

目的证实胎儿生长受限大鼠模型的建立方法;观察胎儿生长受限(FGR)大鼠胎盘的组织形态及超微结构特征。方法健康Wistar雌鼠24只,按妊娠先后顺序随机分为两组:正常对照组(正常组)、模型组(烟酒处理组),采用烟酒混合因素建立大鼠FGR模型;比较两组胎鼠的体重、鼻臀长度、体重系数及FGR发生率,两组胎盘组织行HE染色,并应用光镜和电镜观察其病理变化。结果①模型组胎仔平均体重、鼻臀长度、体重系数较正常组分别减轻46.0%、21.9%、35.0%(P0.01)。对照组FGR发生率仅为12.5%,模型组FGR发生率为79.3%,显著高于对照组(P0.01)。②模型组胎盘形态学明显改变。结论通过烟酒干预的方法,成功建立缺血缺氧性FGR孕鼠模型。烟酒可导致胎盘形态结构的改变,这种病理改变是造成FGR胎盘功能减退的形态学基础。