Oil palm expansion increases the vectorial capacity of dengue vectors in Malaysian Borneo

Changes in land-use and the associated shifts in environmental conditions can have large effects on the transmission and emergence of mosquito-borne disease. Mosquito-borne disease are particularly sensitive to these changes because mosquito growth, reproduction, survival and susceptibility to infection are all thermally sensitive traits, and land use change dramatically alters local microclimate. Predicting disease transmission under environmental change is increasingly critical for targeting mosquito-borne disease control and for identifying hotspots of disease emergence. Mechanistic models offer a powerful tool for improving these predictions. However, these approaches are limited by the quality and scale of temperature data and the thermal response curves that underlie predictions. Here, we used fine-scale temperature monitoring and a combination of empirical, laboratory and temperature-dependent estimates to estimate the vectorial capacity of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes across a tropical forest–oil palm plantation conversion gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We found that fine-scale differences in temperature between logged forest and oil palm plantation sites were not sufficient to produce differences in temperature-dependent demographic trait estimates using published thermal performance curves. However, when measured under field conditions a key parameter, adult abundance, differed significantly between land-use types, resulting in estimates of vectorial capacity that were 1.5 times higher in plantations than in forests. The prediction that oil palm plantations would support mosquito populations with higher vectorial capacity was robust to uncertainties in our adult survival estimates. These results provide a mechanistic basis for understanding the effects of forest conversion to agriculture on mosquito-borne disease risk, and a framework for interpreting emergent relationships between land-use and disease transmission. As the burden of Ae. albopictus-vectored diseases, such as dengue virus, increases globally and rising demand for palm oil products drives continued expansion of plantations, these findings have important implications for conservation, land management and public health policy at the global scale.     

Temporal abundance of Aedes aegypti in Manaus,Brazil, measured by two trap types for adult mosquitoes

A longitudinal study was conducted in Manaus, Brazil, to monitor changes of adult Aedes aegypti (L.) abundance. The objectives were to compare mosquito collections of two trap types, to characterise temporal changes of the mosquito population, to investigate the influence of meteorological variables on mosquito collections and to analyse the association between mosquito collections and dengue incidence. Mosquito monitoring was performed fortnightly using MosquiTRAPs (MQT) and BG-Sentinel (BGS) traps between December 2008-June 2010. The two traps revealed opposing temporal infestation patterns, with highest mosquito collections of MQTs during the dry season and highest collections of BGS during the rainy seasons. Several meteorological variables were significant predictors of mosquito collections in the BGS. The best predictor was the relative humidity, lagged two weeks (in a positive relationship). For MQT, only the number of rainy days in the previous week was significant (in a negative relationship). The correlation between monthly dengue incidence and mosquito abundance in BGS and MQT was moderately positive and negative, respectively. Catches of BGS traps reflected better the dynamic of dengue incidence. The findings help to understand the effects of meteorological variables on mosquito infestation indices of two different traps for adult dengue vectors in Manaus.     

Bird community responses to afforested eucalyptus plantations in the Argentine pampas

Land-use change driven by human population growth and economic activity will continue to impact both natural habitats and land currently being used for food, fiber, and fuel production. The effects of this conversion on economically important ecological services will in large part depend on how native biodiversity responds to these changes. We investigated how agriculture-related land use change influences the avian community in northeastern Argentina by examining common agricultural land uses (pasture/annual crops, young and mature large-scale eucalyptus plantations, mixed-use farms with citrus, blueberry and small stands of eucalyptus) and remnant native espinal savannas. In this region, afforested eucalyptus plantations represent a new land-use change from the land cover of pasture with intermixed annual crops that has dominated the region. In this mosaic, we used point counts to assess how avian diversity and community structure differed between land uses. Bird species richness was lowest in older plantations and highest in the espinal savanna, with the other land uses having intermediate richness. Abundance trends followed the same pattern, with low overall abundance in the plantations, intermediate levels for pasture/annual crops, and highest abundance in the espinal. Distinct bird community assemblages were strongly associated with each land use, and between young and mature eucalyptus stands. Birds can be useful indicators for biodiversity as a whole, and the depopulated and depauperate avian community within the eucalyptus plantations will likely lead to reduced provision of many ecosystem services in this region if the spatial extent of plantations continues to expand.     

基于土地利用变化的四川省凉山州移民生态效应研究

土地利用变化是自然演变与人类活动共同作用的结果,大量的人口流动一定程度上将影响土地利用方式,进而对区域生态环境质量产生影响作用。因此,研究人口流动对土地利用变化的影响及生态效应,能为合理调控区域人地关系,促进区域生态环境与经济的平衡发展提供理论支持。基于长时序高空间分辨率土地利用数据,以具有典型移民现象的四川省凉山州为研究区,针对移民驱动下的土地利用时空变化特征及其诱发的生态效应进行研究分析。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年间,受人口迁移影响,凉山州土地资源的利用结构和程度都发生了相应改变,以耕地、草地、林地及不透水面的面积变化最为显著。在人口迁入较多的西昌、冕宁和德昌等县市内,供人类生活、生存所需要的耕地和建筑用地的数量显著增加;相反,对于大量人口迁出的喜德、昭觉和美姑等地区,人类活动强度的降低为生态用地的恢复和重建提供了条件,生态用地面积不断上涨。(2)受土地利用类型、地形条件、人口分布等因素的影响,凉山州整体生态环境质量呈西高东低、北高南低的空间分布格局。2000-2020年,整体生态环境质量仅下降了0.36%,总体较为稳定。(3)生态环境质量改善区域集中于东部的越西、美姑及昭觉等县市,而生态环境质量降低的区域主要位于盐源、会里、西昌和德昌等县市。生态环境质量的改变与区域移民活动存在紧密联系,其中由移民迁入引发的耕地和不透水面对生态用地的挤占,对生态环境质量退化贡献比重达87.97%,而随着移民迁出为生态工程的实施提供条件,凉山州内生态用地面积共增加775.84 km²。     

Pyrosequencing Reveals Changes in Soil Bacterial Communities after Conversion of Yungas Forests to Agriculture

The Southern Andean Yungas in Northwest Argentina constitute one of the main biodiversity hotspots in the world. Considerable changes in land use have taken place in this ecoregion, predominantly related to forest conversion to croplands, inducing losses in above-ground biodiversity and with potential impact on soil microbial communities. In this study, we used high-throughput pyrosequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene to assess whether land-use change and time under agriculture affect the composition and diversity of soil bacterial communities. We selected two areas dedicated to sugarcane and soybean production, comprising both short- and long-term agricultural sites, and used the adjacent native forest soils as a reference. Land-use change altered the composition of bacterial communities, with differences between productive areas despite the similarities between both forests. At the phylum level, only Verrucomicrobia and Firmicutes changed in abundance after deforestation for sugarcane and soybean cropping, respectively. In cultivated soils, Verrucomicrobia decreased sharply (~80%), while Firmicutes were more abundant. Despite the fact that local diversity was increased in sugarcane systems and was not altered by soybean cropping, phylogenetic beta diversity declined along both chronosequences, evidencing a homogenization of soil bacterial communities over time. In spite of the detected alteration in composition and diversity, we found a core microbiome resistant to the disturbances caused by the conversion of forests to cultivated lands and few or none exclusive OTUs for each land-use type. The overall changes in the relative abundance of copiotrophic and oligotrophic taxa may have an impact in soil ecosystem functionality. However, communities with many taxa in common may also share many functional attributes, allowing to maintain at least some soil ecosystem services after forest conversion to croplands.     

Impacts of climate, land use, and biological invasion on the ecology of immature aedes mosquitoes: implications for la crosse emergence

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) cause many diseases worldwide and their transmission is likely to change with land use and climate changes. La Crosse virus (LACV) is historically transmitted by the native mosquito Aedes triseriatus (Say) in the upper Midwestern US, but the invasive congeners Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and A. japonicus (Theobald), which co-occur with A. triseriatus in water-holding containers, may be important accessory vectors in the Appalachian region where La Crosse encephalitis is an emerging disease. This review focuses on evidence for how climate, land use, and biological invasions may have direct abiotic and indirect community-level impacts on immature developmental stages (eggs and larvae) of Aedes mosquitoes. Because vector-borne diseases usually vary in space and time and are related to the ecology of the vector species, we propose that the ecology of its mosquito vectors, particularly at their immature stages, has played an important role in the emergence of La Crosse encephalitis in the Appalachian region and represents a model for investigating the effects of environmental changes on other vector-borne diseases. We summarize the health effects of LACV and associated socioeconomic costs that make it the most important native mosquito-borne disease in the US. We review of the transmission of LACV, and present evidence for the impacts of climate, land use, and biological invasions on Aedes mosquito communities. Finally, we discuss important questions about the ecology of LACV mosquito vectors that may improve our understanding of the impacts of environmental changes on LACV and other arboviruses.     

Response of instream animal communities to a short-term extreme event and to longer-term cumulative impacts in a strategic water resource area,South Africa

Disturbance plays an integral part in generating heterogeneity required for ecosystem persistence, but the increased amplitude and duration of disturbances linked to drivers of global change could result in ecosystem shifts or collapse. Biomonitoring over time provides insights into trajectories of ecosystem change. The responses of two instream animal taxa to two contrasting disturbance events, a major flood event and the long-term cumulative effects of land-use changes, were assessed in 1999–2012 by quantifying variation and change in abundance of functional groups based on flow rate sensitivity, water quality and metrics of ecological condition. All metrics recovered to pre-flood conditions within seven months after the flood event. Similarly, cumulative impacts of land use effected significant decreases in some but not all metrics. Indices that did not change, including SASS total score and ASPT, were the result of insufficient consideration of the decrease in the abundance of sensitive taxa specifically, and the abundance of all taxa in general. The decrease in abundance of sensitive taxa could signal imminent collapse in certain metrics. Evidence is also provided for a shift in the structure of fish assemblages linked to the decrease and loss of taxa sensitive to ecosystem degradation caused by the longer-term impacts of land-use change.     

The Effects of Climate Change and Globalization on Mosquito Vectors: Evidence from Jeju Island,South Korea on the Potential for Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) Influxes and Survival from Vietnam Rather Than Japan

Background

Climate change affects the survival and transmission of arthropod vectors as well as the development rates of vector-borne pathogens. Increased international travel is also an important factor in the spread of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) such as dengue, West Nile, yellow fever, chikungunya, and malaria. Dengue is the most important vector-borne viral disease. An estimated 2.5 billion people are at risk of infection in the world and there are approximately 50 million dengue infections and an estimated 500,000 individuals are hospitalized with dengue haemorrhagic fever annually. The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is one of the vectors of dengue virus, and populations already exist on Jeju Island, South Korea. Currently, colder winter temperatures kill off Asian tiger mosquito populations and there is no evidence of the mosquitos being vectors for the dengue virus in this location. However, dengue virus-bearing mosquito vectors can inflow to Jeju Island from endemic area such as Vietnam by increased international travel, and this mosquito vector''s survival during colder winter months will likely occur due to the effects of climate change.

Methods and Results

In this section, we show the geographical distribution of medically important mosquito vectors such as Ae. albopictus, a vector of both dengue and chikungunya viruses; Culex pipiens, a vector of West Nile virus; and Anopheles sinensis, a vector of Plasmodium vivax, within Jeju Island, South Korea. We found a significant association between the mean temperature, amount of precipitation, and density of mosquitoes. The phylogenetic analyses show that an Ae. albopictus, collected in southern area of Jeju Island, was identical to specimens found in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, and not Nagasaki, Japan.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that mosquito vectors or virus-bearing vectors can transmit from epidemic regions of Southeast Asia to Jeju Island and can survive during colder winter months. Therefore, Jeju Island is no longer safe from vector borne diseases (VBDs) due to the effects of globalization and climate change, and we should immediately monitor regional climate change to identify newly emerging VBDs.     

三峡库区典型流域聚落变迁的土地利用效应

三峡库区是典型的移民区和生态敏感区,探究其由于聚落变迁所引发的土地利用转移效应对于区域社会经济发展和生态恢复具有重要意义。以库区腹地草堂溪流域为研究对象,基于2000—2018年GOOGLE EARTH高分影像,结合当地自然地理环境和社会经济发展从微观尺度对山区聚落变迁的土地利用效应进行剖析。研究表明:(1)扩张型聚落周边以耕地转为果园为主;衰退型聚落周边土地利用转型主要表现为耕地向果园、有林地转变;自然增长型聚落周边以耕地和灌木林地向有林地,果园转化;消没型聚落周边以耕地,果园转为林草地,撂荒地为主,经济和生态效益均有所提高;且除消没型聚落外,另外3种聚落类型周边土地利用功能逐渐向生产生态功能转变,消没型周边土地利用功能逐渐侧重于生态功能。(2)2000—2010年,聚落变迁劳动力转移是聚落周边用地类型变化的根本因素,政府政策是是造成土地利用转型的直接因素;2010—2018年社会经济发展是土地利用转型的直接驱动因素,而农户生计需求是引发用地类型变化的根本驱动力;(3)聚落的变迁,不仅驱动了土地利用转型而且促使流域内经营主体由农户个体经营向政府、企业为主的经营主体转变。研究结果对于库...     

Fine scale spatial urban land cover factors associated with adult mosquito abundance and risk in Tucson,Arizona

It is currently unclear what role microhabitat land cover plays in determining the seasonal spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus, disease vectors of dengue and West Nile Virus, respectively, in Tucson, AZ. We compared mosquito abundance to sixteen land cover variables derived from 2010 NAIP multispectral data and 2008 LiDAR height data. Mosquitoes were trapped with 30–9 traps from May to October of 2010 and 2011. Variables were extracted for five buffer zones (10–50 m radii at 10 m intervals) around trapping sites. Stepwise regression was performed to determine the best scale for observation and the influential land cover variables. The 30 m radius buffer was determined to be the best for observing the land cover‐mosquito abundance relationship. Ae. aegypti presence was positively associated with structure and medium height trees and negatively associated with bare earth; Cx. quinquefasciatus presence was positively associated with pavement and medium height trees and negatively associated with shrubs. These findings emphasize vegetation, impervious surfaces, and soil influences on mosquito presence in an urban setting. Lastly, the land cover‐mosquito abundance relationships were used to produce risk maps of seasonal presence that highlight high risk areas in Tucson, which may be useful for focusing mosquito control program actions.     

Spatial Evaluation and Modeling of Dengue Seroprevalence and Vector Density in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Background

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, experienced a severe dengue fever epidemic in 2008. This was the worst epidemic ever, characterized by a sharp increase in case-fatality rate, mainly among younger individuals. A combination of factors, such as climate, mosquito abundance, buildup of the susceptible population, or viral evolution, could explain the severity of this epidemic. The main objective of this study is to model the spatial patterns of dengue seroprevalence in three neighborhoods with different socioeconomic profiles in Rio de Janeiro. As blood sampling coincided with the peak of dengue transmission, we were also able to identify recent dengue infections and visually relate them to Aedes aegypti spatial distribution abundance. We analyzed individual and spatial factors associated with seroprevalence using Generalized Additive Model (GAM).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Three neighborhoods were investigated: a central urban neighborhood, and two isolated areas characterized as a slum and a suburban area. Weekly mosquito collections started in September 2006 and continued until March 2008. In each study area, 40 adult traps and 40 egg traps were installed in a random sample of premises, and two infestation indexes calculated: mean adult density and mean egg density. Sera from individuals living in the three neighborhoods were collected before the 2008 epidemic (July through November 2007) and during the epidemic (February through April 2008). Sera were tested for DENV-reactive IgM, IgG, Nested RT-PCR, and Real Time RT-PCR. From the before–after epidemics paired data, we described seroprevalence, recent dengue infections (asymptomatic or not), and seroconversion. Recent dengue infection varied from 1.3% to 14.1% among study areas. The highest IgM seropositivity occurred in the slum, where mosquito abundance was the lowest, but household conditions were the best for promoting contact between hosts and vectors. By fitting spatial GAM we found dengue seroprevalence hotspots located at the entrances of the two isolated communities, which are commercial activity areas with high human movement. No association between recent dengue infection and household''s high mosquito abundance was observed in this sample.

Conclusions/Significance

This study contributes to better understanding the dynamics of dengue in Rio de Janeiro by assessing the relationship between dengue seroprevalence, recent dengue infection, and vector density. In conclusion, the variation in spatial seroprevalence patterns inside the neighborhoods, with significantly higher risk patches close to the areas with large human movement, suggests that humans may be responsible for virus inflow to small neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro. Surveillance guidelines should be further discussed, considering these findings, particularly the spatial patterns for both human and mosquito populations.     

Simulation of watershed hydrology and stream water quality under land use and climate change scenarios in Teshio River watershed,northern Japan

Quantitative prediction of environmental impacts of land-use and climate change scenarios in a watershed can serve as a basis for developing sound watershed management schemes. Water quantity and quality are key environmental indicators which are sensitive to various external perturbations. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impacts of land-use and climate changes on water quantity and quality at watershed scale and to understand relationships between hydrologic components and water quality at that scale under different climate and land-use scenarios. We developed an approach for modeling and examining impacts of land-use and climate change scenarios on the water and nutrient cycles. We used an empirical land-use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE) and a watershed hydrology and nutrient model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) for the Teshio River watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Predicted future land-use change (from paddy field to farmland) under baseline climate conditions reduced loads of sediment, total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorous (P) from the watershed to the river. This was attributable to higher nutrient uptake by crops and less nutrient mineralization by microbes, reduced nutrient leaching from soil, and lower water yields on farmland. The climate changes (precipitation and temperature) were projected to have greater impact in increasing surface runoff, lateral flow, groundwater discharge and water yield than would land-use change. Surface runoff especially decreased in April and May and increased in March and September with rising temperature. Under the climate change scenarios, the sediment and nutrient loads increased during the snowmelt and rainy seasons, while N and P uptakes by crops increased during the period when fertilizer is normally applied (May through August). The sediment and nutrient loads also increased with increasing winter rainfall because of warming in that season. Organic nutrient mineralization and nutrient leaching increased as well under climate change scenarios. Therefore, we predicted annual water yield, sediment and nutrient loads to increase under climate change scenarios. The sediment and nutrient loads were mainly supplied from agricultural land under land use in each climate change scenario, suggesting that riparian zones and adequate fertilizer management would be a potential mitigation strategy for reducing these negative impacts of land-use and climate changes on water quality. The proposed approach provides a useful source of information for assessing the consequences of hydrology processes and water quality in future land-use and climate change scenarios.     

Taxonomic and functional approaches reveal different responses of ant assemblages to land-use changes

Land-use change is well documented to cause species loss. However, our understanding of the effects of land-use change on other aspects of biodiversity is still limited. We evaluated if different land-use changes (Eucalyptus plantation and planted pasture) affect ant species and functional groups in similar ways across three Cerrado vegetation types (grassland, savanna and savanna-forest). We found that ant species and functional responses differed with land-use change in relation to frequency of occurrence and habitat specificity and fidelity. Land-use change affected species frequency of occurrence but not functional groups, indicating that species are more sensitive than functional groups to habitat transformation. Native habitats had different indicator species and functional groups compared with converted habitats. However, we did not find functional group indicators of converted habitats in any vegetation type; indicating that there is no specificity and fidelity of functional group to converted habitats and that such an approach is less sensitive to land-use changes. In savanna and savanna-forest, species and functional groups showed the same response in relation to composition with differences between native and converted habitats. Thus, functional groups will be lost when ant species are lost. In grasslands, functional group composition was similar between native and converted habitats indicating a turnover of species within functional groups. We demonstrate that both Eucalyptus plantation and planted pasture affect ant species and functional groups in different ways, with negative impacts both taxonomically and less so functionally. Therefore, we show that the two aspects of biodiversity can respond independently to land-use changes and, hence, the importance of using both taxonomic and functional group approaches to evaluate the effects of land-use change on biodiversity in savanna systems.     

Assessing the effects of land-use change on plant traits, communities and ecosystem functioning in grasslands: a standardized methodology and lessons from an application to 11 European sites

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A standardized methodology to assess the impacts of land-use changes on vegetation and ecosystem functioning is presented. It assumes that species traits are central to these impacts, and is designed to be applicable in different historical, climatic contexts and local settings. Preliminary results are presented to show its applicability. METHODS: Eleven sites, representative of various types of land-use changes occurring in marginal agro-ecosystems across Europe and Israel, were selected. Climatic data were obtained at the site level; soil data, disturbance and nutrition indices were described at the plot level within sites. Sixteen traits describing plant stature, leaf characteristics and reproductive phase were recorded on the most abundant species of each treatment. These data were combined with species abundance to calculate trait values weighed by the abundance of species in the communities. The ecosystem properties selected were components of above-ground net primary productivity and decomposition of litter. KEY RESULTS: The wide variety of land-use systems that characterize marginal landscapes across Europe was reflected by the different disturbance indices, and were also reflected in soil and/or nutrient availability gradients. The trait toolkit allowed us to describe adequately the functional response of vegetation to land-use changes, but we suggest that some traits (vegetative plant height, stem dry matter content) should be omitted in studies involving mainly herbaceous species. Using the example of the relationship between leaf dry matter content and above-ground dead material, we demonstrate how the data collected may be used to analyse direct effects of climate and land use on ecosystem properties vs. indirect effects via changes in plant traits. CONCLUSIONS: This work shows the applicability of a set of protocols that can be widely applied to assess the impacts of global change drivers on species, communities and ecosystems.     

Integrating Urbanization into Landscape-level Ecological Assessments

Economists and ecologists are often asked to collaborate on landscape-level analyses designed to jointly assess economic and ecological conditions resulting from environmental policy scenarios. This trend toward multidisciplinary projects, coupled with the growing use of geographic information systems, has led to the development of spatially explicit models that can be used to examine and project land-use change. Although spatial land-use models are still evolving, most published efforts have modeled the conversion of nonurban land to urban uses as a function of explanatory variables based on population density and the spatial proximity of land to roads, markets, and population centers. In this paper, we use a gravity model to describe the urbanization potential of forest and agricultural land as a combination of population and proximity. We develop an empirical model that describes the probability that forests and agricultural land in western Oregon and western Washington were transformed to residential, commercial, or industrial uses over a 30-year period as a function of urbanization potential, other socioeconomic factors, and geographic and physical land characteristics. Land-use data were provided by the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program. We use this empirical model to generate geographic information system maps depicting the probability of future land-use change that can be integrated with landscape-level ecological models developed for western Oregon's Coast Range. Received 14 April 2000; accepted 17 August 2000.     

Surrounding land use significantly influences adult mosquito abundance and species richness in urban mangroves

Mangroves harbor mosquitoes capable of transmitting human pathogens; consequently, urban mangrove management must strike a balance between conservation and minimizing public health risks. Land use may play a key role in shaping the mosquito community within urban mangroves through either species spillover or altering the abundance of mosquitoes associated with the mangrove. In this study, we explore the impact of land use within 500 m of urban mangroves on the abundance and diversity of adult mosquito populations. Carbon dioxide baited traps were used to sample host-seeking female mosquitoes around nine mangrove forest sites along the Parramatta River, Sydney, Australia. Specimens were identified to species and for each site, mosquito species abundance, species richness and diversity were calculated and were analyzed in linear mixed effects models. We found that the percentage of residential land and bushland in the surrounding area had a negative effect on mosquito abundance and species richness. Conversely, the amount of mangrove had a significant positive effect on mosquito abundance, and the amount of industrial land had a significant positive effect on species richness. These results demonstrate the need for site-specific investigations of mosquito communities associated with specific habitat types and the importance of considering surrounding land use in moderating local mosquito communities. A greater understanding of local land use and its influence on mosquito habitats could add substantially to the predictive power of disease risk models and assist local authorities develop policies for urban development and wetland rehabilitation.     

Tracking changes in the land use,management and drainage status of organic soils as indicators of the effectiveness of mitigation strategies for climate change

The tracking of land use since 1990 presents a major challenge in greenhouse gas (GHG) reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol because there is often limited availability of data, especially for the base year of 1990. There is even less land management and soil moisture data, which are needed to track climate change mitigation activities since soil moisture is one of the main drivers of GHG emissions of organic soils. Information is also needed for the reporting of land-based activities such as grazing land management or wetland drainage and rewetting of organic soils. Different spatial and thematic resolutions of land-use data produce inconsistent time series with a strong overestimation of land-use change (LUC) if not adequately accounted for. Our aim was to create a consistent time series of land use since 1990 that is in line with GHG reporting under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol by combining official cadastral data with colour-infrared aerial photography used for biodiversity monitoring in six federal states in northern and eastern Germany. We developed a generic hierarchical classification by land use, management and drainage status, and a translation key for data harmonisation into a consistent time series. This time series enabled the quantification of LUC on organic soils between 1992 and 2013 in a spatially explicit manner. Furthermore we used this time series to develop indicators for changes in land management and drainage to evaluate the success of protection statuses on peatland restoration.The study area encompassed one million hectares, half of which had some type of legal nature protection status. Areas with no protection status tended to become more intensively farmed and drier, while highly protected areas (e.g. Natura 2000) showed the opposite trend. Land-use trends also differed greatly between federal states. In Schleswig-Holstein organic soils tended to become drier during the study period, while in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania they tended to become wetter overall. The trends and differences in LUC between federal states were linked to German reunification, changes in the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Germany's Renewable Energy Act (EEG). A large-scale peatland protection programme also had major impact.In conclusion, our study demonstrates how data derived for biodiversity monitoring and other highly detailed land-use data can be used to track changes in land use, management and drainage status in accordance with the reporting requirements under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol.     

Resource-Mediated Indirect Effects of Grassland Management on Arthropod Diversity

Intensive land use is a driving force for biodiversity decline in many ecosystems. In semi-natural grasslands, land-use activities such as mowing, grazing and fertilization affect the diversity of plants and arthropods, but the combined effects of different drivers and the chain of effects are largely unknown. In this study we used structural equation modelling to analyse how the arthropod communities in managed grasslands respond to land use and whether these responses are mediated through changes in resource diversity or resource quantity (biomass). Plants were considered resources for herbivores which themselves were considered resources for predators. Plant and arthropod (herbivores and predators) communities were sampled on 141 meadows, pastures and mown pastures within three regions in Germany in 2008 and 2009. Increasing land-use intensity generally increased plant biomass and decreased plant diversity, mainly through increasing fertilization. Herbivore diversity decreased together with plant diversity but showed no response to changes in plant biomass. Hence, land-use effects on herbivore diversity were mediated through resource diversity rather than quantity. Land-use effects on predator diversity were mediated by both herbivore diversity (resource diversity) and herbivore quantity (herbivore biomass), but indirect effects through resource quantity were stronger. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing both direct and indirect effects of land-use intensity and mode on different trophic levels. In addition to the overall effects, there were subtle differences between the different regions, pointing to the importance of regional land-use specificities. Our study underlines the commonly observed strong effect of grassland land use on biodiversity. It also highlights that mechanistic approaches help us to understand how different land-use modes affect biodiversity.     

The role of land-use history in major invasions by woody plant species in the northeastern North American landscape

Land-use history as a predictor of invasive alien plant distributions has received little study, especially across large spatial and temporal scales. Here we evaluate the importance of land-use history and other environmental characteristics as predictors of the distributions of a suite important invasive woody plant species in the northeastern United States. Using historical aerial photographs, we delineated 69 years (1934–2003) of land-use change across a typically heterogeneous 95 km² landscape. We randomly surveyed over 500 sites for six invasive plant species. We found that land use history patterns strongly affected presence and abundance of the invasive plants as a group, but affected some species more than others. Generally, past agricultural use favored invasive species, whereas intact forest blocks discouraged them. Current land-use trends toward residential/commercial development favor disturbance-adapted species like Celastrus orbiculatus (asiatic bittersweet) and will probably slow the spread of post-agricultural specialists such as Berberis thunbergii (Japanese barberry).     

Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities

Background

Dengue infection is endemic in many regions throughout the world. While insecticide fogging targeting the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major control measure against dengue epidemics, the impact of this method remains controversial. A previous mathematical simulation study indicated that insecticide fogging minimized cases when conducted soon after peak disease prevalence, although the impact was minimal, possibly because seasonality and population immunity were not considered. Periodic outbreak patterns are also highly influenced by seasonal climatic conditions. Thus, these factors are important considerations when assessing the effect of vector control against dengue. We used mathematical simulations to identify the appropriate timing of insecticide fogging, considering seasonal change of vector populations, and to evaluate its impact on reducing dengue cases with various levels of transmission intensity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We created the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model of dengue virus transmission. Mosquito lifespan was assumed to change seasonally and the optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue incidence under various lengths of the wet season was investigated. We also assessed whether insecticide fogging was equally effective at higher and lower endemic levels by running simulations over a 500-year period with various transmission intensities to produce an endemic state. In contrast to the previous study, the optimal application of insecticide fogging was between the onset of the wet season and the prevalence peak. Although it has less impact in areas that have higher endemicity and longer wet seasons, insecticide fogging can prevent a considerable number of dengue cases if applied at the optimal time.

Conclusions/Significance

The optimal timing of insecticide fogging and its impact on reducing dengue cases were greatly influenced by seasonality and the level of transmission intensity. We suggest that these factors should be considered when planning a control strategy against dengue vectors.