Bias correction of bounded location error in binary data

Binary regression models for spatial data are commonly used in disciplines such as epidemiology and ecology. Many spatially referenced binary data sets suffer from location error, which occurs when the recorded location of an observation differs from its true location. When location error occurs, values of the covariates associated with the true spatial locations of the observations cannot be obtained. We show how a change of support (COS) can be applied to regression models for binary data to provide coefficient estimates when the true values of the covariates are unavailable, but the unknown location of the observations are contained within nonoverlapping arbitrarily shaped polygons. The COS accommodates spatial and nonspatial covariates and preserves the convenient interpretation of methods such as logistic and probit regression. Using a simulation experiment, we compare binary regression models with a COS to naive approaches that ignore location error. We illustrate the flexibility of the COS by modeling individual-level disease risk in a population using a binary data set where the locations of the observations are unknown but contained within administrative units. Our simulation experiment and data illustration corroborate that conventional regression models for binary data that ignore location error are unreliable, but that the COS can be used to eliminate bias while preserving model choice.     

Multiple imputation in the presence of an incomplete binary variable created from an underlying continuous variable

Multiple imputation (MI) is used to handle missing at random (MAR) data. Despite warnings from statisticians, continuous variables are often recoded into binary variables. With MI it is important that the imputation and analysis models are compatible; variables should be imputed in the same form they appear in the analysis model. With an encoded binary variable more accurate imputations may be obtained by imputing the underlying continuous variable. We conducted a simulation study to explore how best to impute a binary variable that was created from an underlying continuous variable. We generated a completely observed continuous outcome associated with an incomplete binary covariate that is a categorized version of an underlying continuous covariate, and an auxiliary variable associated with the underlying continuous covariate. We simulated data with several sample sizes, and set 25% and 50% of data in the covariate to MAR dependent on the outcome and the auxiliary variable. We compared the performance of five different imputation methods: (a) Imputation of the binary variable using logistic regression; (b) imputation of the continuous variable using linear regression, then categorizing into the binary variable; (c, d) imputation of both the continuous and binary variables using fully conditional specification (FCS) and multivariate normal imputation; (e) substantive-model compatible (SMC) FCS. Bias and standard errors were large when the continuous variable only was imputed. The other methods performed adequately. Imputation of both the binary and continuous variables using FCS often encountered mathematical difficulties. We recommend the SMC-FCS method as it performed best in our simulation studies.     

Double‐wavelet transform for multisubject task‐induced functional magnetic resonance imaging data

The goal of this article is to model multisubject task‐induced functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) response among predefined regions of interest (ROIs) of the human brain. Conventional approaches to fMRI analysis only take into account temporal correlations, but do not rigorously model the underlying spatial correlation due to the complexity of estimating and inverting the high dimensional spatio‐temporal covariance matrix. Other spatio‐temporal model approaches estimate the covariance matrix with the assumption of stationary time series, which is not always feasible. To address these limitations, we propose a double‐wavelet approach for modeling the spatio‐temporal brain process. Working with wavelet coefficients simplifies temporal and spatial covariance structure because under regularity conditions, wavelet coefficients are approximately uncorrelated. Different wavelet functions were used to capture different correlation structures in the spatio‐temporal model. The main advantages of the wavelet approach are that it is scalable and that it deals with nonstationarity in brain signals. Simulation studies showed that our method could reduce false‐positive and false‐negative rates by taking into account spatial and temporal correlations simultaneously. We also applied our method to fMRI data to study activation in prespecified ROIs in the prefontal cortex. Data analysis showed that the result using the double‐wavelet approach was more consistent than the conventional approach when sample size decreased.     

Topographic Factor Analysis: A Bayesian Model for Inferring Brain Networks from Neural Data

The neural patterns recorded during a neuroscientific experiment reflect complex interactions between many brain regions, each comprising millions of neurons. However, the measurements themselves are typically abstracted from that underlying structure. For example, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) datasets comprise a time series of three-dimensional images, where each voxel in an image (roughly) reflects the activity of the brain structure(s)–located at the corresponding point in space–at the time the image was collected. FMRI data often exhibit strong spatial correlations, whereby nearby voxels behave similarly over time as the underlying brain structure modulates its activity. Here we develop topographic factor analysis (TFA), a technique that exploits spatial correlations in fMRI data to recover the underlying structure that the images reflect. Specifically, TFA casts each brain image as a weighted sum of spatial functions. The parameters of those spatial functions, which may be learned by applying TFA to an fMRI dataset, reveal the locations and sizes of the brain structures activated while the data were collected, as well as the interactions between those structures.     

Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information: a key for reconciling ecological theory and application

We suggest that the conscious use of information that is "hidden" in distinct structures in nature itself and in data extracted from nature (=pattern) during the process of modeling (=pattern-oriented modeling) can substantially improve models in ecological application and conservation. Observed patterns, such as time-series patterns and spatial patterns of presence/absence in habitat patches, contain a great deal of data on scales, site-history, parameters and processes. Use of these data provides criteria for aggregating the biological information in the model, relates the model explicitly to the relevant scales of the system, facilitates the use of helpful techniques of indirect parameter estimation with independent data, and helps detect underlying ecological processes. Additionally, pattern-oriented models produce comparative predictions that can be tested in the field. We developed a step-by-step protocol for pattern-oriented modeling and illustrate the potential of this protocol by discussing three pattern-oriented population models: (1) a population viability analysis for brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) in northern Spain using time-series data on females with cubs of the year to adjust unknown model parameters; (2) a savanna model for detecting underlying ecological processes from spatial patterns of tree distribution; and (3) the incidence function model of metapopulation dynamics as an example of process integration and model generalization. We conclude that using the pattern-oriented approach to its full potential will require a major paradigm shift in the strategies of modeling and data collection, and we argue that more emphasis must be placed on observing and documenting relevant patterns in addition to attempts to obtain direct estimates of model parameters.     

A likelihood approach to estimating animal density from binary acoustic transects

We propose an approximate maximum likelihood method for estimating animal density and abundance from binary passive acoustic transects, when both the probability of detection and the range of detection are unknown. The transect survey is purposely designed so that successive data points are dependent, and this dependence is exploited to simultaneously estimate density, range of detection, and probability of detection. The data are assumed to follow a homogeneous Poisson process in space, and a second-order Markov approximation to the likelihood is used. Simulations show that this method has small bias under the assumptions used to derive the likelihood, although it performs better when the probability of detection is close to 1. The effects of violations of these assumptions are also investigated, and the approach is found to be sensitive to spatial trends in density and clustering. The method is illustrated using real acoustic data from a survey of sperm and humpback whales.     

Network modeling of dynamic brain interactions predicts emergence of neural information that supports human cognitive behavior

How cognitive task behavior is generated by brain network interactions is a central question in neuroscience. Answering this question calls for the development of novel analysis tools that can firstly capture neural signatures of task information with high spatial and temporal precision (the “where and when”) and then allow for empirical testing of alternative network models of brain function that link information to behavior (the “how”). We outline a novel network modeling approach suited to this purpose that is applied to noninvasive functional neuroimaging data in humans. We first dynamically decoded the spatiotemporal signatures of task information in the human brain by combining MRI-individualized source electroencephalography (EEG) with multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA). A newly developed network modeling approach—dynamic activity flow modeling—then simulated the flow of task-evoked activity over more causally interpretable (relative to standard functional connectivity [FC] approaches) resting-state functional connections (dynamic, lagged, direct, and directional). We demonstrate the utility of this modeling approach by applying it to elucidate network processes underlying sensory–motor information flow in the brain, revealing accurate predictions of empirical response information dynamics underlying behavior. Extending the model toward simulating network lesions suggested a role for the cognitive control networks (CCNs) as primary drivers of response information flow, transitioning from early dorsal attention network-dominated sensory-to-response transformation to later collaborative CCN engagement during response selection. These results demonstrate the utility of the dynamic activity flow modeling approach in identifying the generative network processes underlying neurocognitive phenomena.

How is cognitive task behavior generated by brain network interactions? This study describes a novel network modeling approach and applies it to source electroencephalography data. The model accurately predicts future information dynamics underlying behavior and (via simulated lesioning) suggests a role for cognitive control networks as key drivers of response information flow.     

Multiple peak alignment in sequential data analysis: a scale-space-based approach

In this paper, we address the multiple peak alignment problem in sequential data analysis with an approach based on the Gaussian scale-space theory. We assume that multiple sets of detected peaks are the observed samples of a set of common peaks. We also assume that the locations of the observed peaks follow unimodal distributions (e.g., normal distribution) with their means equal to the corresponding locations of the common peaks and variances reflecting the extension of their variations. Under these assumptions, we convert the problem of estimating locations of the unknown number of common peaks from multiple sets of detected peaks into a much simpler problem of searching for local maxima in the scale-space representation. The optimization of the scale parameter is achieved using an energy minimization approach. We compare our approach with a hierarchical clustering method using both simulated data and real mass spectrometry data. We also demonstrate the merit of extending the binary peak detection method (i.e., a candidate is considered either as a peak or as a nonpeak) with a quantitative scoring measure-based approach (i.e., we assign to each candidate a possibility of being a peak).     

Localizing Genes to Cerebellar Layers by Classifying ISH Images

Gene expression controls how the brain develops and functions. Understanding control processes in the brain is particularly hard since they involve numerous types of neurons and glia, and very little is known about which genes are expressed in which cells and brain layers. Here we describe an approach to detect genes whose expression is primarily localized to a specific brain layer and apply it to the mouse cerebellum. We learn typical spatial patterns of expression from a few markers that are known to be localized to specific layers, and use these patterns to predict localization for new genes. We analyze images of in-situ hybridization (ISH) experiments, which we represent using histograms of local binary patterns (LBP) and train image classifiers and gene classifiers for four layers of the cerebellum: the Purkinje, granular, molecular and white matter layer. On held-out data, the layer classifiers achieve accuracy above 94% (AUC) by representing each image at multiple scales and by combining multiple image scores into a single gene-level decision. When applied to the full mouse genome, the classifiers predict specific layer localization for hundreds of new genes in the Purkinje and granular layers. Many genes localized to the Purkinje layer are likely to be expressed in astrocytes, and many others are involved in lipid metabolism, possibly due to the unusual size of Purkinje cells.     

Exploiting the potential of three dimensional spatial wavelet analysis to explore nesting of temporal oscillations and spatial variance in simultaneous EEG-fMRI data

Synchronization of the activity in neural networks is a fundamental mechanism of brain function, putatively serving the integration of computations on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Time scales are thought to be nested within distinct spatial scales, so that whereas fast oscillations may integrate local networks, slow oscillations might integrate computations across distributed brain areas. We here describe a newly developed approach that provides potential for the further substantiation of this hypothesis in future studies. We demonstrate the feasibility and important caveats of a novel wavelet-based means of relating time series of three-dimensional spatial variance (energy) of fMRI data to time series of temporal variance of EEG. The spatial variance of fMRI data was determined by employing the three-dimensional dual-tree complex wavelet transform. The temporal variance of EEG data was estimated by using traditional continuous complex wavelets. We tested our algorithm on artificial signals with known signal-to-noise ratios and on empirical resting state EEG-fMRI data obtained from four healthy human subjects. By employing the human posterior alpha rhythm as an exemplar, we demonstrated face validity of the approach. We believe that the proposed method can serve as a suitable tool for future research on the spatiotemporal properties of brain dynamics, hence moving beyond analyses based exclusively in one domain or the other.     

Multivariate Bayesian analysis of Gaussian,right censored Gaussian,ordered categorical and binary traits using Gibbs sampling

A fully Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling and data augmentation in a multivariate model of Gaussian, right censored, and grouped Gaussian traits is described. The grouped Gaussian traits are either ordered categorical traits (with more than two categories) or binary traits, where the grouping is determined via thresholds on the underlying Gaussian scale, the liability scale. Allowances are made for unequal models, unknown covariance matrices and missing data. Having outlined the theory, strategies for implementation are reviewed. These include joint sampling of location parameters; efficient sampling from the fully conditional posterior distribution of augmented data, a multivariate truncated normal distribution; and sampling from the conditional inverse Wishart distribution, the fully conditional posterior distribution of the residual covariance matrix. Finally, a simulated dataset was analysed to illustrate the methodology. This paper concentrates on a model where residuals associated with liabilities of the binary traits are assumed to be independent. A Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling is outlined for the model where this assumption is relaxed.     

Determinants of Low Birth Weight in Malawi: Bayesian Geo-Additive Modelling

Studies on factors of low birth weight in Malawi have neglected the flexible approach of using smooth functions for some covariates in models. Such flexible approach reveals detailed relationship of covariates with the response. The study aimed at investigating risk factors of low birth weight in Malawi by assuming a flexible approach for continuous covariates and geographical random effect. A Bayesian geo-additive model for birth weight in kilograms and size of the child at birth (less than average or average and higher) with district as a spatial effect using the 2010 Malawi demographic and health survey data was adopted. A Gaussian model for birth weight in kilograms and a binary logistic model for the binary outcome (size of child at birth) were fitted. Continuous covariates were modelled by the penalized (p) splines and spatial effects were smoothed by the two dimensional p-spline. The study found that child birth order, mother weight and height are significant predictors of birth weight. Secondary education for mother, birth order categories 2-3 and 4-5, wealth index of richer family and mother height were significant predictors of child size at birth. The area associated with low birth weight was Chitipa and areas with increased risk to less than average size at birth were Chitipa and Mchinji. The study found support for the flexible modelling of some covariates that clearly have nonlinear influences. Nevertheless there is no strong support for inclusion of geographical spatial analysis. The spatial patterns though point to the influence of omitted variables with some spatial structure or possibly epidemiological processes that account for this spatial structure and the maps generated could be used for targeting development efforts at a glance.     

Power of quantitative trait locus mapping for polygenic binary traits using generalized and regression interval mapping in multi-family half-sib designs

A generalized interval mapping (GIM) method to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) for binary polygenic traits in a multi-family half-sib design is developed based on threshold theory and implemented using a Newton-Raphson algorithm. Statistical power and bias of QTL mapping for binary traits by GIM is compared with linear regression interval mapping (RIM) using simulation. Data on 20 paternal half-sib families were simulated with two genetic markers that bracketed an additive QTL. Data simulated and analysed were: (1) data on the underlying normally distributed liability (NDL) scale, (2) binary data created by truncating NDL data based on three thresholds yielding data sets with three different incidences, and (3) NDL data with polygenic and QTL effects reduced by a proportion equal to the ratio of the heritabilities on the binary versus NDL scale (reduced-NDL). Binary data were simulated with and without systematic environmental (herd) effects in an unbalanced design. GIM and RIM gave similar power to detect the QTL and similar estimates of QTL location, effects and variances. Presence of fixed effects caused differences in bias between RIM and GIM, where GIM showed smaller bias which was affected less by incidence. The original NDL data had higher power and lower bias in QTL parameter estimates than binary and reduced-NDL data. RIM for reduced-NDL and binary data gave similar power and estimates of QTL parameters, indicating that the impact of the binary nature of data on QTL analysis is equivalent to its impact on heritability.     

Mirror-symmetric tonotopic maps in human primary auditory cortex

Understanding the functional organization of the human primary auditory cortex (PAC) is an essential step in elucidating the neural mechanisms underlying the perception of sound, including speech and music. Based on invasive research in animals, it is believed that neurons in human PAC that respond selectively with respect to the spectral content of a sound form one or more maps in which neighboring patches on the cortical surface respond to similar frequencies (tonotopic maps). The number and the cortical layout of such tonotopic maps in the human brain, however, remain unknown. Here we use silent, event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging at 7 Tesla and a cortex-based analysis of functional data to delineate with high spatial resolution the detailed topography of two tonotopic maps in two adjacent subdivisions of PAC. These maps share a low-frequency border, are mirror symmetric, and clearly resemble those of presumably homologous fields in the macaque monkey.     

Applications of binary segmentation to the estimation of quantal response curves and spatial intensity

This paper explores the use of binary segmentation procedures in two applications. The first application is concerned with the estimation of nonparametric quantal response curves. With Bernoulli data and an assumed monotone increasing curve, this gives rise a change-point model where the change points are determined using a sequence of nested hypothesis tests of whether a change point exists. The second application concerns cluster identification and inference for spatial data where the shape of the clusters and the number of clusters is unknown. The procedure involves a sequence of nested hypothesis tests of a single cluster versus a pair of distinct clusters. Examples of both applications are provided.     

A Model of Functional Brain Connectivity and Background Noise as a Biomarker for Cognitive Phenotypes: Application to Autism

We present an efficient approach to discriminate between typical and atypical brains from macroscopic neural dynamics recorded as magnetoencephalograms (MEG). Our approach is based on the fact that spontaneous brain activity can be accurately described with stochastic dynamics, as a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (mOUP). By fitting the data to a mOUP we obtain: 1) the functional connectivity matrix, corresponding to the drift operator, and 2) the traces of background stochastic activity (noise) driving the brain. We applied this method to investigate functional connectivity and background noise in juvenile patients (n = 9) with Asperger’s syndrome, a form of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and compared them to age-matched juvenile control subjects (n = 10). Our analysis reveals significant alterations in both functional brain connectivity and background noise in ASD patients. The dominant connectivity change in ASD relative to control shows enhanced functional excitation from occipital to frontal areas along a parasagittal axis. Background noise in ASD patients is spatially correlated over wide areas, as opposed to control, where areas driven by correlated noise form smaller patches. An analysis of the spatial complexity reveals that it is significantly lower in ASD subjects. Although the detailed physiological mechanisms underlying these alterations cannot be determined from macroscopic brain recordings, we speculate that enhanced occipital-frontal excitation may result from changes in white matter density in ASD, as suggested in previous studies. We also venture that long-range spatial correlations in the background noise may result from less specificity (or more promiscuity) of thalamo-cortical projections. All the calculations involved in our analysis are highly efficient and outperform other algorithms to discriminate typical and atypical brains with a comparable level of accuracy. Altogether our results demonstrate a promising potential of our approach as an efficient biomarker for altered brain dynamics associated with a cognitive phenotype.     

Novel application of a quantitative spatial comparison tool to species distribution data

Comparing geographically referenced maps has become an important aspect of spatial ecology (e.g. assessing change in distribution over time). Whilst humans are adept at recognising and extracting structure from maps (i.e. identifying spatial patterns), quantifying these structures can be difficult. Here, we show how the Structural Similarity (SSIM) index, a spatial comparison method adapted from techniques developed in computer science to determine the quality of image compression, can be used to extract additional information from spatial ecological data. We enhance the SSIM index to incorporate uncertainty from the underlying spatial models, and provide a software algorithm to correct for internal edge effects so that loss of spatial information from the map comparison is limited. The SSIM index uses a spatially-local window to calculate statistics based on local mean, variance, and covariance between the maps being compared. A number of statistics can be calculated using the SSIM index, ranging from a single summary statistic to quantify similarities between two maps, to maps of similarities in mean, variance, and covariance that can provide additional insight into underlying biological processes. We demonstrate the applicability of the SSIM approach using a case study of sperm whales in the Mediterranean Sea and identify areas where local-scale differences in space-use between groups and singleton whales occur. We show how novel insights into spatial structure can be extracted, which could not be obtained by visual inspection or cell-by-cell subtraction. As an approach, SSIM is applicable to a broad range of spatial ecological data, providing a novel, implementable tool for map comparison.     

A high-dimensional mediation model for a neuroimaging mediator: Integrating clinical,neuroimaging, and neurocognitive data to mitigate late effects in pediatric cancer

Pediatric cancer treatment, especially for brain tumors, can have profound and complicated late effects. With the survival rates increasing because of improved detection and treatment, a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of current treatments on neurocognitive function and brain structure is critically needed. A frontline medulloblastoma clinical trial (SJMB03) has collected data, including treatment, clinical, neuroimaging, and cognitive variables. Advanced methods for modeling and integrating these data are critically needed to understand the mediation pathway from the treatment through brain structure to neurocognitive outcomes. We propose an integrative Bayesian mediation analysis approach to model jointly a treatment exposure, a high-dimensional structural neuroimaging mediator, and a neurocognitive outcome and to uncover the mediation pathway. The high-dimensional imaging-related coefficients are modeled via a binary Ising–Gaussian Markov random field prior (BI-GMRF), addressing the sparsity, spatial dependency, and smoothness and increasing the power to detect brain regions with mediation effects. Numerical simulations demonstrate the estimation accuracy, power, and robustness. For the SJMB03 study, the BI-GMRF method has identified white matter microstructure that is damaged by cancer-directed treatment and impacts late neurocognitive outcomes. The results provide guidance on improving treatment planning to minimize long-term cognitive sequela for pediatric brain tumor patients.     

A statistical-reaction-diffusion approach for analyzing expansion processes

In this article, we propose a method for analyzing the spatial variations in the range expansion of the pine processionary moth (PPM), an invasive species in France. Based on binary measurements - the presence or absence of PPM nests - the proposed method allows us to infer the local effect of the environment on PPM population expansion. This effect is estimated at each position x using a parameter F(x) that corresponds to the local PPM fitness. The data type and the two stage PPM life cycle make estimating this parameter difficult. To overcome these difficulties we adopt a mechanistic-statistical approach that combines a statistical model for the observation process with a hierarchical,reaction-diffusion based mechanistic model for the expansion process. Bayesian inference of the parameter F(x) reveals that PPM fitness is spatially heterogeneous and highlights the existence of large regions associated with lower fitness. The factors underlying this lower fitness are yet to be determined.