Health and agricultural intensification in the prehistoric Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico

The effects of agricultural intensification on health are examined in prehistoric populations of the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico. Agriculture was practiced in the Valley of Oaxaca by the beginning of the Early Formative period (ca. 1400 B.C.), and had intensified by the Late Formative (ca. 500 B.C.). Skeletal remains from 14 archaeological sites in the Valley are pooled by temporal affiliation into a nonintensive agriculture group (1400-500 B.C.) and an intensive agriculture group (500 B.C.-1400 A.D.). The health effects of agricultural intensification are assessed by comparing the frequency of periosteal reactions, cribra orbitalia, and enamel hypoplasia between the intensive and nonintensive agricultural groups. Overall, no significant differences (alpha = 0.05) are found between the nonintensive and intensive groups. Power analyses of the chi-square tests indicate that the tests have a high probability of rejecting a false null hypothesis. The intensification of agriculture does not appear to have had a deleterious effect on the health of the prehistoric population of the Valley. The differences between this study and previous studies of health and agricultural development may be explained by differences between the processes of intensification and development or by differences between primary and secondary centers of agricultural development.     

Landscape structure and agricultural intensification are weak predictors of host range and parasitism rate of cereal aphids

Proportions of specialist and generalist primary parasitoids have been described by the resource breadth and the trade-off hypothesis. These alternative hypotheses predict either decreased or increased, respectively, parasitism rate of shared aphid species by specialist parasitoids. We tested both hypotheses and the confounding effects of landscape structure and agricultural intensification (AI) using extensive samplings of aphids and their parasitoids in Polish agricultural landscapes. Abundances, species composition of aphids, primary parasitoids, and parasitism rate of aphids by specialists and generalist parasitoids were analysed. Contrary to our expectations we found equally decreased parasitism rates by both types of primary parasitoids at higher aphid densities and thus proportion of specialists to generalists did not change with increasing host density. In line with the resource breadth hypothesis, specialist parasitoids had always lower abundances and parasitism rates than generalist parasitoids. Landscape diversity and agricultural intensification did not influence the host-parasitoid population dynamics. We speculate that these contrasting results could be caused by the additional density effects of secondary parasitoids. We conclude that simplistic two-trophic-level population models are not able to fully describe the complex dynamics of trophic networks. We also argue that agricultural intensification has lower effects on abundance and effectiveness of parasitoids than predicted by respective predator–prey models and empirical studies performed in controlled and artificial conditions.     

Agrarian Change and the Changing Relationships Between Toil and Soil in Maragoli, Western Kenya (1900–1994)

Theories of agrarian change in Africa normally treat agricultural intensification as a linear unidirectional process that gradually engulfs entire agrarian systems as human population increases. Focusing on soil management practices, this paper disputes the alleged uniformity of intensification and argues that periodic, contrary processes may occur simultaneously. Written and oral historical data, and survey data describing current farmers' practices and perceptions of change in densely settled Maragoli, western Kenya, are used to support this argument. Farmers' soil fertility management practices have changed in response to migration, social differentiation, and economic change, and the interplay between changing social and ecological conditions. Despite rapid population growth, Luhya farmers manage their soils both more and less intensively in response to this interplay and create a heterogeneous pattern of management in space and time. The implications of this variability for contemporary applied agricultural research in the region are assessed.     

How increasing levels of private land enrollment in conservation agreements affect the population viability of grassland birds

There is a growing recognition that to effectively conserve biodiversity efforts have to extend into the realm of engaging private landowners. Agricultural lands have been particularly attractive targets for integrating conservation and production goals. Changes in hayfield management associated with agricultural intensification, including earlier and more frequent harvests, have a severe impact on grassland birds. Government-administered conservation incentive programs benefit grassland birds by delaying harvest dates on enrolled land to allow nesting pairs to successfully fledge at least one brood during the breeding season. In contrast, hayfields that are mowed during the breeding season support sink populations and may function as ecological traps. We examined the effect of increasing levels of hayfield enrollment on grasshopper sparrow population viability using a spatially-explicit, stage-structured, stochastic model of a grasshopper sparrow metapopulation in an urbanizing region of New Jersey. The probability of metapopulation extinction (POE) decreased as the proportion of enrolled hayfields increased and fell below 10% when about half of all available agricultural land was enrolled. POE also decreased with increasing numbers of enrolled hayfields most likely because hayfield enrollment removes a sink population from the landscape in addition to creating a source population. Our results are encouraging as they demonstrate that extinction risk for this grassland-dependent imperiled species can be reduced without having to protect or manage all remaining grassland habitat in the landscape.     

Striking a new balance between agricultural production and biodiversity

Agricultural policy in Europe is changing from supporting production to encouraging environmental benefits in the context of sustainable rural development. As a result, there is a window of opportunity to reconsider the balance between agricultural production and biodiversity management on British farmland, to seek to redress the problems for biodiversity that accrued during intensification without reducing the capacity to meet the coming challenges of global change and population increase. These challenges are discussed in the context of longer term historical change, and in terms of how readily they can be overcome. Current policies can deliver conservation targets that are within the control of individual land managers, and are likely to increase landscape heterogeneity significantly. However, it will be more dif. cult to plan landscapes to deliver agricultural production, ecosystem services and conserve biodiversity in the face of nutrient deposition and climate change. There can be no theoretical “optimum” balance between production and biodiversity, as environmental goals depend greatly upon decisions about scales (from local to global, immediate to long) and the viewpoints of stakeholders. Indeed, the social challenge of delivering sustainable agricultural landscapes is far greater than the scientific one of researching what they might be like.     

Habitat percolation transition undermines sustainability in social-ecological agricultural systems

Steady increases in human population size and resource consumption are driving rampant agricultural expansion and intensification. Habitat loss caused by agriculture puts the integrity of ecosystems at risk and threatens the persistence of human societies that rely on ecosystem services. We develop a spatially explicit model describing the coupled dynamics of an agricultural landscape and human population size to assess the effect of different land-use management strategies, defined by agricultural clustering and intensification, on the sustainability of the social-ecological system. We show how agricultural expansion can cause natural habitats to undergo a percolation transition leading to abrupt habitat fragmentation that feedbacks on human's decision making, aggravating landscape degradation. We found that agricultural intensification to spare land from conversion is a successful strategy only in highly natural landscapes, and that clustering agricultural land is the most effective measure to preserve large connected natural fragments, prevent severe fragmentation and thus, enhance sustainability.     

Modelling of landscape changes derived from the dynamics of socio-ecological systems: A case of study in a semiarid Mediterranean landscape

Europe's cultural landscape has undergone notable changes in the last few decades. In particular, conserving the cultural rural landscape of the Mediterranean basin constitutes a difficult task due to the fact that, on one hand, rural abandonment, and on the other, agricultural intensification, are generating a new type of landscape which is apparently less appealing than the traditional one. Indeed, this landscape depends upon the maintenance of traditional agricultural uses and their associated activities, both of which depend on local environmental conditions and on socio-economic conditioning factors. The latter are increasingly being seen as the causes of the changes. Modifications in the social structure and processes affect and alter the rural environment, so that ecological and socio-economic information must be integrated for use as a basis for land use planning and management.In the present paper we have applied numerical analyses which associate territorial structure with economic and socio-cultural structure, predicting new types of landscape by means of experimental scenarios of socio-economic changes. The configuration of the traditional rural landscape studied and its spatial heterogeneity depend upon the proportion of the agriculture, pasture and woodland components of the traditional systems. Formalization of this landscape–socio-economy dependence enables us to consider scenarios of socio-economic change and to deduce variations in the landscape. We simulated changes related to the promotion or abandonment of agriculture. The model developed can be considered as an effective agri-environmental indicator, as it provides most of the characteristics required for analysis and environmental appraisal at landscape level.     

Land Reform and Land-Use Changes in the Lower Amazon: Implications for Agricultural Intensification

Land tenure has been considered one of the key factors that define patterns and change in land-use systems. This paper examines the implications of land reform for household decisions regarding patterns of land use, agricultural intensification, and forest conservation. We look at an Amazonian caboclo settlement in the Lower Amazon that had experienced land reform by the end of the 1980s. Results show that defined land tenure is not enough to guarantee agricultural intensification and forest conservation. In fact, several factors working at different scales are affecting land-use change in the region. At the settlement level, privatization of upland forest has led to an overall increase in cultivated land—pasture and annual crops—and increasing deforestation rates. However, at the farm-property level, different systems of agricultural production—intensive, extensive, or abandonment of land—occur according to availability of labor, and capital, and access to different natural resources.     

Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics

Agriculture is now facing the ‘perfect storm’ of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic‐assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change.     

Land cover change or land‐use intensification: simulating land system change with a global‐scale land change model

Land‐use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land‐use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970–2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models.     

Patterns of land use,extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940–2012) and productivity (1990–2012) in Brazil using a new high‐resolution (approximately 1 km²) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision‐making.     

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37‐year observation of cotton bollworms

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro‐ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37‐year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time‐series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long‐term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro‐ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.     

Between‐year variations in Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax population densities are influenced by agricultural intensification and rainfall

The Little Bustard is suffering a widespread population decline mainly due to agricultural intensification. This study evaluates the effects of intensification level, habitat availability and rainfall on the population dynamics of this species. The population density of males was monitored for 7 years (2002–2008) at 184 points located within three sites with contrasting levels of agricultural intensification in southern Portugal. Densities decreased along the intensification gradient from 8.2 to 2.3 males / km². Overall, there was an approximately 50% population decline during the period 2002–2008, driven by a decline observed in one of the less intensive sites, whereas in the other two sites densities remained fairly constant. Yearly variations in male densities were influenced by intensification level, amount of grassland habitat and rainfall patterns. Thus, agricultural intensification is having a negative effect on population densities of this threatened species, particularly through the loss of grasslands (fallow fields and pastures) suitable for displaying males. The results also suggest a positive impact of rainfall on male densities, although this is more likely in grasslands within less intensive agricultural regions of poorer soil quality, where higher breeding male densities occur. Grassland habitat quality, driven by both climate and human management, probably plays a major role in the population dynamics of this threatened steppe bird in its strongholds.     

The role of natural habitats in agricultural systems for bird conservation: the case of the threatened Lesser Grey Shrike

Birds of agricultural systems are one of the most threatened groups of birds in Europe mainly due to their sharp population decline in recent decades. Habitat intensification resulting from more productive agricultural practices has been proposed as a major cause for these declines. However, especially in some regions such as Eastern European and Mediterranean countries, little is known about the ultimate factors linked to habitat intensification that drive population declines for different species. The Lesser Grey Shrike is a good study species for a better understanding of such processes since it is closely related to agricultural habitats in Europe and has suffered a strong decline in range and population size across the western half of the continent. In this study, we explored variations in breeding parameters of this shrike related to habitat composition and food supply at the territory level. We found that fledgling success of early breeders was related to the presence of natural (shrub lands) and semi-natural (fallows) habitats in the predominantly agricultural matrix that dominated breeding territories. Their influence on fledgling success appeared to be mediated by a higher arthropod availability on these habitats. Indeed, Lesser Grey Shrike showed a strong preference for these habitats as hunting locations. Our results highlight the importance of natural habitats in intensified agricultural land mosaics for the conservation of bird species. We suggest that management plans should pay special attention to the availability of habitats which serve as high quality food reservoirs and can potentially contribute to enhance the species population viability in an area. Finally, we discuss the possible link between agricultural intensification and Lesser Grey Shrike population declines in Western Europe.     

Impacts of intensifying or expanding cereal cropping in sub‐Saharan Africa on greenhouse gas emissions and food security

Cropping is responsible for substantial emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) worldwide through the use of fertilizers and through expansion of agricultural land and associated carbon losses. Especially in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), GHG emissions from these processes might increase steeply in coming decades, due to tripling demand for food until 2050 to match the steep population growth. This study assesses the impact of achieving cereal self‐sufficiency by the year 2050 for 10 SSA countries on GHG emissions related to different scenarios of increasing cereal production, ranging from intensifying production to agricultural area expansion. We also assessed different nutrient management variants in the intensification. Our analysis revealed that irrespective of intensification or extensification, GHG emissions of the 10 countries jointly are at least 50% higher in 2050 than in 2015. Intensification will come, depending on the nutrient use efficiency achieved, with large increases in nutrient inputs and associated GHG emissions. However, matching food demand through conversion of forest and grasslands to cereal area likely results in much higher GHG emissions. Moreover, many countries lack enough suitable land for cereal expansion to match food demand. In addition, we analysed the uncertainty in our GHG estimates and found that it is caused primarily by uncertainty in the IPCC Tier 1 coefficient for direct N₂O emissions, and by the agronomic nitrogen use efficiency (N‐AE). In conclusion, intensification scenarios are clearly superior to expansion scenarios in terms of climate change mitigation, but only if current N‐AE is increased to levels commonly achieved in, for example, the United States, and which have been demonstrated to be feasible in some locations in SSA. As such, intensifying cereal production with good agronomy and nutrient management is essential to moderate inevitable increases in GHG emissions. Sustainably increasing crop production in SSA is therefore a daunting challenge in the coming decades.     

Variation in ancient Egyptian stature and body proportions

Stature and the pattern of body proportions were investigated in a series of six time-successive Egyptian populations in order to investigate the biological effects on human growth of the development and intensification of agriculture, and the formation of state-level social organization. Univariate analyses of variance were performed to assess differences between the sexes and among various time periods. Significant differences were found both in stature and in raw long bone length measurements between the early semipastoral population and the later intensive agricultural population. The size differences were greater in males than in females. This disparity is suggested to be due to greater male response to poor nutrition in the earlier populations, and with the increasing development of social hierarchy, males were being provisioned preferentially over females. Little change in body shape was found through time, suggesting that all body segments were varying in size in response to environmental and social conditions. The change found in body plan is suggested to be the result of the later groups having a more tropical (Nilotic) form than the preceding populations.     

Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets

Agricultural expansion is a leading driver of biodiversity loss across the world, but little is known on how future land‐use change may encroach on remaining natural vegetation. This uncertainty is, in part, due to unknown levels of future agricultural intensification and international trade. Using an economic land‐use model, we assessed potential future losses of natural vegetation with a focus on how these may threaten biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. We analysed agricultural expansion under proactive and reactive biodiversity protection scenarios, and for different rates of pasture intensification. We found growing food demand to lead to a significant expansion of cropland at the expense of pastures and natural vegetation. In our reference scenario, global cropland area increased by more than 400 Mha between 2015 and 2050, mostly in Africa and Latin America. Grazing intensification was a main determinant of future land‐use change. In Africa, higher rates of pasture intensification resulted in smaller losses of natural vegetation, and reduced pressure on biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. Investments into raising pasture productivity in conjunction with proactive land‐use planning appear essential in Africa to reduce further losses of areas with high conservation value. In Latin America, in contrast, higher pasture productivity resulted in increased livestock exports, highlighting that unchecked trade can reduce the land savings of pasture intensification. Reactive protection of sensitive areas significantly reduced the conversion of natural ecosystems in Latin America. We conclude that protection strategies need to adapt to region‐specific trade positions. In regions with a high involvement in international trade, area‐based conservation measures should be preferred over strategies aimed at increasing pasture productivity, which by themselves might not be sufficient to protect biodiversity effectively.     

Population and agricultural intensity in the humid tropics

A review of models of agricultural intensification and their application to the agricultural systems of the humid tropics is presented. Taken into account are the distributions of these systems at various population densities, available data on labor efficiencies, the costs of establishing continuous cropping, and data regarding soils under cultivation and various types of fallow. The findings that fallows much longer than 10 or 15 years serve no known agronomic function, that given preindustrial technology, grass fallows are disadvantageous, even environmentally destructive, and that continuous cropping usually entails a considerable amount of environmental modification support the interpretations that agricultural intensification in the humid tropics is best understood in terms of ecologically optimal strategies at different population densities. Points needing further investigation are highlighted: the reasons for very long fallows, and the comparative labor efficiencies of fallow and continuous cropping systems where crops and environments are similar.     

Species diversity patterns in some present and prehistoric rodent communities

Summary Comparisons of prehistoric (A.D. 1100–1400) and extant cricetine-dominated rodent faunas from two locations in New Mexico and one in Arizona reveal temporal changes in both species diversity and taxonomic composition. The archaeological context of the prehistoric faunas permitted them to be dated rather accurately; paleoenvironmental inferences generated from other materials recovered in the excavations such as pollen samples, agricultural remains, and tree-ring specimens provided evidence about prehistoric environmental conditions in the study areas. Both richness and evenness components of diversity are lower in the present day faunas than in their prehistoric counterparts. At the beta (between-habitat or valley-wide) level of diversity the increased prehistoric species richness as well as the nature of the differences in present and prehistoric taxonomic composition can be accounted for by small climatic shifts which were occurring between A.D. 1100 and 1300 in the Southwest and the resultant biogeogrphic responses of certain rodent species. Alpha (or within-habitat) diversity is similar for all analyzed faunas. This suggests basic similarities in very local species packing despite observed spatial and temporal variation in valley-wide diversities. Environmental changes stemming from climatic shifts provide a reasonable explanation of the observed patterns of rodent species occurrence and diversity. Habitat destruction resulting from agricultural practies of prehistoric human populations appears to have had only a limited impact on these rodent communities.     

From the mouths of babes: Dental caries in infants and children and the intensification of agriculture in mainland Southeast Asia

Many bioarchaeological studies have established a link between increased dental caries prevalence and the intensification of agriculture. However, research in Southeast Asia challenges the global application of this theory. Although often overlooked, dental health of infants and children can provide a sensitive source of information concerning health and subsistence change. This article investigates the prevalence and location of caries in the dentition of infants and children (less than 15 years of age) from eight prehistoric mainland Southeast Asian sites collectively spanning the Neolithic to late Iron Age, during which time rice agriculture became an increasingly important subsistence mode. Caries prevalence varied among the sites but there was no correlation with chronological change. The absence of evidence of a decline in dental health over time can be attributed to the relative noncariogenicity of rice and retention of broad‐spectrum subsistence strategies. No differences in caries type indicating differences in dental health were found between the sites, apart from the Iron Age site of Muang Sema. There was a higher prevalence of caries in the deciduous dentition than the permanent dentition, likely due to a cariogenic weaning diet and the higher sensitivity of deciduous teeth to decay. The level of caries in the permanent dentition suggests an increased reliance on less cariogenic foods during childhood, including rice. The absence of a temporal decline in dental health of infants and children strengthens the argument that the relationship between caries and agricultural intensification in Southeast Asia was more complex than the general model suggests. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.