Generating carbon finance through avoided deforestation and its potential to create climatic, conservation and human development benefits

Recent proposals to compensate developing countries for reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) under forthcoming climate change mitigation regimes are receiving increasing attention. Here we demonstrate that if RED credits were traded on international carbon markets, even moderate decreases in deforestation rates could generate billions of Euros annually for tropical forest conservation. We also discuss the main challenges for a RED mechanism that delivers real climatic benefits. These include providing sufficient incentives while only rewarding deforestation reductions beyond business-as-usual scenarios, addressing risks arising from forest degradation and international leakage, and ensuring permanence of emission reductions. Governance may become a formidable challenge for RED because some countries with the highest RED potentials score poorly on governance indices. In addition to climate mitigation, RED funds could help achieve substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation and human development. However, this will probably require targeted additional support because the highest biodiversity threats and human development needs may exist in countries that have limited income potentials from RED. In conclusion, how successfully a market-based RED mechanism can contribute to climate change mitigation, conservation and development will strongly depend on accompanying measures and carefully designed incentive structures involving governments, business, as well as the conservation and development communities.     

工厂化堆肥温室气体排放和氨气同位素特征

畜禽废弃物堆肥处理过程中产生的二氧化碳(CO₂)、氧化亚氮(N₂O)、甲烷(CH₄)和氨气(NH₃)等是重要的温室气体和大气污染物。但目前有关该过程气体排放的研究多基于室内小型模拟的反应器式堆肥,在工厂化堆肥条件下的原位气体排放监测较少。为探究工厂化堆肥产生气体对区域环境的影响,本研究对沈阳某堆肥厂畜禽废弃物堆体的气体排放进行了19 d的监测,并量化了排放氨气的自然丰度¹⁵N(δ¹⁵N)特征。结果表明: 堆置周期内,CO₂、CH₄、N₂O和NH₃的平均排放速率分别为86.8 g CO₂-C·d^-1·m^-2、9.8 g CH₄-C·d^-1·m^-2、3.7 mg N₂O-N·d^-1·m^-2和736.6 mg NH₃-N·d^-1·m^-2。温室气体日增温潜势(GWP)的贡献大小为CH₄>CO₂>NH₃(间接)>N₂O,其中CH₄贡献了65％。堆肥排放NH₃的δ¹⁵N在-21.8‰～-7.2‰,平均-11.6‰±1.2‰。本研究结果可为区域畜禽废弃物堆肥过程中温室气体排放的核算及大气氨溯源提供数据支持。     

博斯腾湖人工和天然芦苇湿地土壤CO2、CH4和N2O排放通量

为研究干旱区淡水湖泊人工、天然芦苇湿地土壤温室气体源汇强度及其影响因素,采用静态箱-气相色谱法,于2015年1月—12月对博斯腾湖人工和天然芦苇湿地土壤CO_2、CH_4和N_2O通量进行全年观测。结果表明,人工芦苇湿地土壤CO_2、CH_4和N_2O排放通量变化范围分别为:10.1—588.4mg m~(-2)h~(-1)、2.9—82.4μg m~(-2)h~(-1)和1.32—29.7μg m~(-2)h~(-1),天然芦苇湿地土壤CO_2、CH_4和N_2O排放通量变化范围分别为10.3—469.6mg m~(-2)h~(-1)、3.1—64.8μg m~(-2)h~(-1)和1.9—14.3μg m~(-2)h~(-1)。人工和天然芦苇湿地夏季土壤CO_2排放通量均明显高于其他季节,而土壤CH_4和N_2O排放通量较大值多集中在春末夏初。全年观测期间,人工芦苇湿地土壤CO_2、CH_4和N_2O排放通量高于天然芦苇湿地(P0.05);温度是影响人工、天然芦苇湿地土壤CO_2和N_2O排放通量的关键因素,近地面温度和5cm土壤温度与CO_2和N_2O排放通量呈现极显著的正相关关系(P0.01)。土壤CH_4排放通量是温度和水分二者共同影响的,由近地表温度、5cm土壤温度和土壤含水量共同拟合的方程可以分别解释人工、天然芦苇湿地土壤CH_4排放通量的71%、74.5%;土壤有机碳、pH、盐分、NH_4~+-N、NO_3~--N也是人工、天然芦苇湿地土壤CO_2、CH_4和N_2O排放通量的影响因素;人工和天然芦苇湿地土壤均是CO_2、CH_4和N_2O的\"源\"。基于100年尺度,由3种温室气体计算全球增温潜势得出,人工芦苇湿地全球增温潜势大于天然芦苇湿地(15150.18kg/hm~212484.21kg/hm~2)。     

Fire risks in forest carbon projects in Indonesia

It is well known that forest carbon or sink projects have not been included in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), one of the flexible mechanismscreated under the Kyoto Protocol. The main concern for postponing sink projectsis related to issues of methodology and integrity. Project eligibility needs tobe judged in a transparent manner if they are real, measurable, provide long-term benefits to mitigate climate change, and provide additional benefits to thosethat would occur in the absence of a certified project.One of the biggest challenges in implementing sink projects is fire risks and the associated biophysical and socio-economic underlying causes. This study attempts to assess fire probability and use it as a tool to estimate fire risk in carbon sink projects. Fire risks may not only threaten ongoing projects but may also cause leakage of carbon stocks in other areas, especially in protected areas. This exercise was carried out in the Berbak National Park located in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia and the surrounding areas. Fire probability is associated with (i) the means by which access to a given area is possible, and (ii) vegetation type or fuel load. Although most fires were intentionally ignited, fire escape is common and is enhanced by long spell of dryweather. When this occurs, secondary road was the most frequently used means, and it was certainly the case during 1997/1998 big fires when damage to natural vegetation (natural and secondary forests) was substantial. Burnt natural vegetation was 120000 ha or 95% of the total burnt areas, and released more than 7 Mt of carbon into the atmosphere.     

Seasonal variation in nitrous oxide and methane emissions from subtropical estuary and coastal mangrove sediments, Australia

Mangrove sediments can act as sources of the greenhouse trace gases, nitrous oxide (N(2) O) and methane (CH(4) ). Confident reporting of trace gas emissions from mangrove sediments at local levels is important for regional emissions inventories, since small changes in N(2) O and CH(4) fluxes greatly influence greenhouse gas budgets due to their high global warming potentials. It is also important to identify the drivers of trace gas emission, to prioritize management for minimising emissions. We measured N(2) O and CH(4) fluxes and abiotic sediment parameters at midday low tide in winter and summer seasons, at four sites (27°33'S, 152°59'E) ranging from estuary to ocean sub-tropical mangrove sediments, having varied anthropogenic impacts. At all sites, sediment N(2) O and CH(4) emissions were significantly lower during winter (7-26 μg N(2) O m(-2) · h(-1); 47-466 μg CH(4) m(-2) · h(-1)) compared to summer (28-202 μg N(2) Om(-2) · h(-1); 247-1570 μg CH(4) m(-2) · h(-1)). Sediment temperature, ranging from 18 to 33°C, strongly influenced N(2) O and CH(4) emissions. Highest emissions (202 μg N(2) O m(-2) · h(-1), 1570 μg CH(4) m(-2) · h(-1) ) were detected at human-impacted estuary sites, which generally had higher total carbon (<8%) and total nitrogen (<0.4%) in sediments and reduced salinity (<16 dS · m(-1)). Large between-site variation highlights the need for regular monitoring of sub-tropical mangroves to capture short-lived, episodic N(2) O and CH(4) flux events that are affected by sediment biophysico-chemical conditions at site level. This is important, particularly at sites receiving anthropogenic nutrients, and that have variable freshwater inputs and tidal hydrology.     

不同恢复方式下大兴安岭重度火烧迹地林地土壤温室气体通量

为研究大兴安岭重度火烧迹地在不同恢复方式下林地土壤CO₂、CH₄和N₂O排放特征及其影响因素,采用静态箱/气相色谱法,在2017年生长季（6月-9月）对3种恢复方式（人工更新、天然更新和人工促进天然更新）林地土壤温室气体CO₂、CH₄、N₂O通量进行了原位观测。研究结果表明：（1）3种恢复方式林地土壤在生长季均为大气CO₂、N₂O的源,CH₄的汇;生长季林地土壤CO₂排放通量大小关系为人工促进天然更新（（634.40±246.52）mg m^-2 h^-1） > 人工更新（（603.63±213.22）mg m^-2 h^-1） > 天然更新（（575.81±244.12）mg m^-2 h^-1）,3种恢复方式间无显著差异;人工更新林地土壤CH₄吸收通量显著高于人工促进天然更新;天然更新林地土壤N₂O排放通量显著高于其他两种恢复方式。（2）土壤温度是影响3种恢复方式林地土壤温室气体通量的关键因素;土壤水分仅对人工更新林地土壤N₂O通量有极显著影响（P < 0.01）;3种恢复方式林地土壤CO₂通量与大气湿度具有极显著的响应（P < 0.01）;土壤pH仅与天然更新林地土壤CO₂通量显著相关（P < 0.05）;土壤全氮含量仅与人工促进天然更新林地土壤CH₄通量显著相关（P < 0.05）。（3）基于100年尺度,由3种温室气体计算全球增温潜势得出,人工促进天然更新（1.83×10⁴ kg CO₂/hm²） > 人工更新（1.74×10⁴ kg CO₂/hm²） > 天然更新（1.67×10⁴ kg CO₂/hm²）。（4）阿木尔地区林地土壤年生长季CO₂和N₂O排放量为8.85×10⁶ t和1.88×10² t,CH₄吸收量为1.05×10³ t。     

Soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4, CO2, NOx,and N2O in the Colorado shortgrass steppe under elevated CO2

In late March 1997, an open-top-chamber (OTC) CO₂ enrichment study was begun in the Colorado shortgrass steppe. The main objectives of the study were to determine the effect of elevated CO₂ (720 mol mol^–1) on plant production, photosynthesis, and water use of this mixed C₃/C₄ plant community, soil nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycling and the impact of changes induced by CO₂ on trace gas exchange. From this study, we report here our weekly measurements of CO₂, CH₄, NO_x and N₂O fluxes within control (unchambered), ambient CO₂ and elevated CO₂ OTCs. Soil water and temperature were measured at each flux measurement time from early April 1997, year round, through October 2000. Even though both C₃ and C₄ plant biomass increased under elevated CO₂ and soil moisture content was typically higher than under ambient CO₂ conditions, none of the trace gas fluxes were significantly altered by CO₂ enrichment. Over the 43 month period of observation NO_x and N₂O flux averaged 4.3 and 1.7 in ambient and 4.1 and 1.7 g N m^–2 hr ^–1 in elevated CO₂ OTCs, respectively. NO_x flux was negatively correlated to plant biomass production. Methane oxidation rates averaged –31 and –34 g C m^–2 hr^–1 and ecosystem respiration averaged 43 and 44 mg C m^–2 hr^–1 under ambient and elevated CO₂, respectively, over the same time period.     

Managing Global Atmospheric Change: A U.S. Policy Perspective

There are several air pollution issues that concern the international community at the regional and global level, including acid deposition, heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climate change. Governments at the regional and global levels have entered into various agreements in an effort to deal with these problems. This paper deals with two major global atmospheric change issues: stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change. The focus is on the policy responses of the United States to these global issues. The United States has signed and ratified international agreements to deal with both problems. The Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer have led to an effort in both developed and developing countries to phase out ozone depleting substances. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been signed and ratified by over 180 countries. The UNFCC contained no binding targets and timetables for emissions reductions. The Kyoto Protocol (1997) to the UNFCCC did contain targets and timetables for reductions of greenhouse gases on the part of developed countries. The United States has signed but not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. The United States has experienced some movement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the part of various levels of government as well as the private sector. The policy process is constantly informed by scientific research. In the case of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, much of this work is carried out under the auspices of international scientific panels. From a policy perspective, there is a great deal of interest in the use of indicators for assessing the scope and magnitude of these problems, both for fashioning policy responses as well as assessing the impact of adopted programs to reduce ozone depleting substances, and potentially, greenhouse gases. This paper will discuss some of the indicators used for stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.     

Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point

Some model experiments predict a large-scale substitution of Amazon forest by savannah-like vegetation by the end of the twenty-first century. Expanding global demands for biofuels and grains, positive feedbacks in the Amazon forest fire regime and drought may drive a faster process of forest degradation that could lead to a near-term forest dieback. Rising worldwide demands for biofuel and meat are creating powerful new incentives for agro-industrial expansion into Amazon forest regions. Forest fires, drought and logging increase susceptibility to further burning while deforestation and smoke can inhibit rainfall, exacerbating fire risk. If sea surface temperature anomalies (such as El Niño episodes) and associated Amazon droughts of the last decade continue into the future, approximately 55% of the forests of the Amazon will be cleared, logged, damaged by drought or burned over the next 20 years, emitting 15–26 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere. Several important trends could prevent a near-term dieback. As fire-sensitive investments accumulate in the landscape, property holders use less fire and invest more in fire control. Commodity markets are demanding higher environmental performance from farmers and cattle ranchers. Protected areas have been established in the pathway of expanding agricultural frontiers. Finally, emerging carbon market incentives for reductions in deforestation could support these trends.     

Modelling effects of habitat fragmentation on the ability of trees to respond to climatic warming

The ability of trees to migrate in response to climatic warming was simulated under various conditions of habitat availability. The model uses Holocene tree migration rates to approximate maximum migration rates in a forested landscape. Habitat availability and local population size was varied systematically under two dispersal and colonization models. These dispersal models varied in the likelihood of long-distance dispersal events. The first model used a negative exponential function that severely limited the probability of long-distance dispersal. The results of this model indicate that migration rate could decline an order of magnitude where the habitat availability is reduced from 80 to 20% of the matrix. The second model, using an inverse power function, carried a higher probability of long-distance dispersal events. The results from this model predict relatively small declines in migration rates when habitat availability is reduced to 50% of the simulation matrix. Below 50% habitat availability, mean migration rate was similar to the negative exponential model. These results predict a failure of many trees to respond to future climatic change through range expansion.     

模拟增温对荒漠生物土壤结皮-土壤系统CO2、CH4和N2O通量的影响

目前, 有关增温条件下荒漠生物土壤结皮(BSCs)-土壤系统与大气之间主要温室气体(CO₂、CH₄和N₂O)通量变化的研究十分匮乏, 以致很难准确地评估荒漠生态系统温室气体通量对气候变暖的响应与反馈的方向和程度。该文选择腾格里沙漠东南缘天然植被区由藻类、藓类以及二者混生的3种类型的BSCs覆盖土壤为研究对象, 以开顶式生长室(OTC)为增温方式模拟全球变暖, 采用静态箱-气相色谱法探究了2012年7月至2013年6月增温和不增温处理下CO₂、CH₄和N₂O通量的变化特征。结果表明: 增温和结皮类型对CO₂、CH₄和N₂O通量没有显著影响。采样日期、结皮类型与采样日期, 以及增温与结皮类型和采样日期的互作显著影响CO₂和CH₄通量, 增温和采样日期互作显著影响CH₄通量。BSCs-土壤系统的CO₂、CH₄和N₂O年通量及其增温潜能在增温和不增温处理下的差异均不显著。CO₂通量与5 cm深度的土壤温度呈显著的指数正相关关系, 与10 cm深度的土壤湿度呈线性正相关关系; 藓类、混生结皮的CH₄通量与5 cm深度的土壤温度和10 cm深度的土壤湿度均呈显著的线性负相关关系; 3种结皮类型的N₂O通量与5 cm深度的土壤温度均无相关关系, 藓类结皮的N₂O通量与10 cm深度的土壤湿度呈显著的线性负相关关系。藓类结皮的CO₂和CH₄在增温和不增温两种处理下的通量差异与5 cm深度的土壤温度差异呈显著的负线性相关, 藻类结皮N₂O的通量差异与温度差异呈近似正相关关系(p = 0.051)。以上结果说明: 在全球变暖的背景下, 荒漠BSCs-土壤系统主要温室气体通量不会有明显的变化, 意味着荒漠生态系统温室气体的排放可能对气候变暖没有明显的 反馈。