Exploring the impact of fossil constraints on the divergence time estimates of derived liverworts

In this study, we evaluate the impact of fossil assignments and different models of calibration on divergence time estimates carried out as Bayesian analyses. Estimated ages from preceding studies and liverwort inclusions from Baltic amber are used as constraints on a molecular phylogeny of Cephaloziineae (Jungermanniopsida) obtained from sequences of two chloroplast coding regions: rbcL and psbA. In total, the comparison of 12 different analyses demonstrates that an increased reliability of the chronograms is linked to the number of fossils assigned and to the accuracy of their assignments. Inclusion of fossil constraints leads to older ages of most crown groups, but has no influence on lineage through time plots suggesting a nearly constant accumulation of diversity since the origin of Cephaloziineae in the early to Middle Jurassic. Our results provide a note of caution regarding the interpretation of chronograms derived from DNA sequence variation of extant species based on a single calibration point and/or low accuracy of the assignment of fossils to nodes in the phylogeny.     

Assessing concordance of fossil calibration points in molecular clock studies: an example using turtles

Although still controversial, estimation of divergence times using molecular data has emerged as a powerful tool to examine the tempo and mode of evolutionary change. Two primary obstacles in improving the accuracy of molecular dating are heterogeneity in DNA substitution rates and accuracy of the fossil record as calibration points. Recent methodological advances have provided powerful methods that estimate relative divergence times in the face of heterogeneity of nucleotide substitution rates among lineages. However, relatively little attention has focused on the accuracy of fossil calibration points that allow one to translate relative divergence times into absolute time. We present a new cross-validation method that identifies inconsistent fossils when multiple fossil calibrations are available for a clade and apply our method to a molecular phylogeny of living turtles with fossil calibration times for 17 of the 22 internal nodes in the tree. Our cross-validation procedure identified seven inconsistent fossils. Using the consistent fossils as calibration points, we found that despite their overall antiquity as a lineage, the most species-rich clades of turtles diversified well within the Cenozoic. Many of the truly ancient lineages of turtles are currently represented by a few, often endangered species that deserve high priority as conservation targets.     

Fossil calibration of molecular divergence infers a moderate mutation rate and recent radiations for pinus

Silent mutation rate estimates for Pinus vary 50-fold, ranging from angiosperm-like to among the slowest reported for plants. These differences either reflect extraordinary genomic processes or inconsistent fossil calibration, and they have important consequences for population and biogeographical inferences. Here we estimate mutation rates from 4 Pinus species that represent the major lineages using 11 nuclear and 4 chloroplast loci. Calibration was tested at the divergence of Pinus subgenera with the oldest leaf fossil from subg. Strobus (Eocene; 45 MYA) or a recently published subg. Strobus wood fossil (Cretaceous; 85 MYA). These calibrations place the origin of Pinus 190-102 MYA and give absolute silent rate estimates of 0.70-1.31x10(-9) and 0.22-0.42x10(-9).site-1.year-1 for the nuclear and chloroplast genomes, respectively. These rates are approximately 4- to 20-fold slower than angiosperms, but unlike many previous estimates, they are more consistent with the high per-generation deleterious mutation rates observed in pines. Chronograms from nuclear and chloroplast genomes show that the divergence of subgenera accounts for about half of the time since Pinus diverged from Picea, with subsequent radiations occurring more recently. By extending the sampling to encompass the phylogenetic diversity of Pinus, we predict that most extant subsections diverged during the Miocene. Moreover, subsect. Australes, Ponderosae, and Contortae, containing over 50 extant species, radiated within a 5 Myr time span starting as recently as 18 MYA. An Eocene divergence of pine subgenera (using leaf fossils) does not conflict with fossil-based estimates of the Pinus-Picea split, but a Cretaceous divergence using wood fossils accommodates Oligocene fossils that may represent modern subsections. Because homoplasy and polarity of character states have not been tested for fossil pine assignments, the choice of fossil and calibration node represents a significant source of uncertainty. Based on several lines of evidence (including agreement with ages inferred using calibrations outside of Pinus), we conclude that the 85 MYA calibration at the divergence of pine subgenera provides a reasonable lower bound and that further refinements in age and mutation rate estimates will require a synthetic examination of pine fossil history.     

Effects of taxon sampling on molecular dating for within-genus divergence events, when deep fossils are used for calibration

A universal method of molecular dating that can be applied to all families and genera regardless of their fossil records, or lack thereof, is highly desirable. A possible method for eudicots is to use a large phylogeny calibrated using deep fossils including tricolpate pollen as a fixed （124 mya） calibration point. This method was used to calculate node ages within three species-poor disjunct basal eudicot genera, Caulophyllum, Podophyllum and Pachysandra, and sensitivity of these ages to effects such as taxon sampling were then quantified. By deleting from one to three accessions related to each genus in 112 different combinations, a confidence range describing variation due only to taxon sampling was generated. Ranges for Caulophyllum, Podophyllum and Pachysandra were 8.4-10.6, 7.6-20.0, and 17.6-25.0 mya, respectively. However, the confidence ranges calculated using bootstrapping were much wider, at 3-19, 0-32 and 11-32 mya, respectively. Furthermore, deleting 10 adjacent taxa had a large effect in Pachysandra only, indicating that undersampling effects are significant among Buxales. Changes to sampling density in neighboring clades, or to the position of the fixed fossil calibration point had small to negligible effects. Non-parametric rate smoothing was more sensitive to taxon sampling effects than was penalized likelihood. The wide range for Podophyllum, compared to the other two genera, was probably due to a high degree of rate heterogeneity within this genus. Confidence ranges calculated by this method could be narrowed by sampling more individuals within the genus of interest, and by sequencing multiple DNA regions from all species in the phylogeny.     

Effects of taxon sampling on molecular dating for within‐genus divergence events,when deep fossils are used for calibration

A universal method of molecular dating that can be applied to all families and genera regardless of their fossil records, or lack thereof, is highly desirable. A possible method for eudicots is to use a large phylogeny calibrated using deep fossils including tricolpate pollen as a fixed (124 mya) calibration point. This method was used to calculate node ages within three species‐poor disjunct basal eudicot genera, Caulophyllum, Podophyllum and Pachysandra, and sensitivity of these ages to effects such as taxon sampling were then quantified. By deleting from one to three accessions related to each genus in 112 different combinations, a confidence range describing variation due only to taxon sampling was generated. Ranges for Caulophyllum, Podophyllum and Pachysandra were 8.4–10.6, 7.6–20.0, and 17.6–25.0 mya, respectively. However, the confidence ranges calculated using bootstrapping were much wider, at 3–19, 0–32 and 11–32 mya, respectively. Furthermore, deleting 10 adjacent taxa had a large effect in Pachysandra only, indicating that undersampling effects are significant among Buxales. Changes to sampling density in neighboring clades, or to the position of the fixed fossil calibration point had small to negligible effects. Non‐parametric rate smoothing was more sensitive to taxon sampling effects than was penalized likelihood. The wide range for Podophyllum, compared to the other two genera, was probably due to a high degree of rate heterogeneity within this genus. Confidence ranges calculated by this method could be narrowed by sampling more individuals within the genus of interest, and by sequencing multiple DNA regions from all species in the phylogeny.     

Testing the impact of calibration on molecular divergence times using a fossil-rich group: the case of Nothofagus (Fagales)

Although temporal calibration is widely recognized as critical for obtaining accurate divergence-time estimates using molecular dating methods, few studies have evaluated the variation resulting from different calibration strategies. Depending on the information available, researchers have often used primary calibrations from the fossil record or secondary calibrations from previous molecular dating studies. In analyses of flowering plants, primary calibration data can be obtained from macro- and mesofossils (e.g., leaves, flowers, and fruits) or microfossils (e.g., pollen). Fossil data can vary substantially in accuracy and precision, presenting a difficult choice when selecting appropriate calibrations. Here, we test the impact of eight plausible calibration scenarios for Nothofagus (Nothofagaceae, Fagales), a plant genus with a particularly rich and well-studied fossil record. To do so, we reviewed the phylogenetic placement and geochronology of 38 fossil taxa of Nothofagus and other Fagales, and we identified minimum age constraints for up to 18 nodes of the phylogeny of Fagales. Molecular dating analyses were conducted for each scenario using maximum likelihood (RAxML + r8s) and Bayesian (BEAST) approaches on sequence data from six regions of the chloroplast and nuclear genomes. Using either ingroup or outgroup constraints, or both, led to similar age estimates, except near strongly influential calibration nodes. Using "early but risky" fossil constraints in addition to "safe but late" constraints, or using assumptions of vicariance instead of fossil constraints, led to older age estimates. In contrast, using secondary calibration points yielded drastically younger age estimates. This empirical study highlights the critical influence of calibration on molecular dating analyses. Even in a best-case situation, with many thoroughly vetted fossils available, substantial uncertainties can remain in the estimates of divergence times. For example, our estimates for the crown group age of Nothofagus varied from 13 to 113 Ma across our full range of calibration scenarios. We suggest that increased background research should be made at all stages of the calibration process to reduce errors wherever possible, from verifying the geochronological data on the fossils to critical reassessment of their phylogenetic position.     

Dated Phylogenies of the Sister Genera Macaranga and Mallotus (Euphorbiaceae): Congruence in Historical Biogeographic Patterns?

Molecular phylogenies and estimates of divergence times within the sister genera Macaranga and Mallotus were estimated using Bayesian relaxed clock analyses of two generic data sets, one per genus. Both data sets were based on different molecular markers and largely different samples. Per genus three calibration points were utilised. The basal calibration point (crown node of all taxa used) was taken from literature and used for both taxa. The other three calibrations were based on fossils of which two were used per genus. We compared patterns of dispersal and diversification in Macaranga and Mallotus using ancestral area reconstruction in RASP (S-DIVA option) and contrasted our results with biogeographical and geological records to assess accuracy of inferred age estimates. A check of the fossil calibration point showed that the Japanese fossil, used for dating the divergence of Mallotus, probably had to be attached to a lower node, the stem node of all pioneer species, but even then the divergence time was still younger than the estimated age of the fossil. The African (only used in the Macaranga data set) and New Zealand fossils (used for both genera) seemed reliably placed. Our results are in line with existing geological data and the presence of stepping stones that provided dispersal pathways from Borneo to New Guinea-Australia, from Borneo to mainland Asia and additionally at least once to Africa and Madagascar via land and back to India via Indian Ocean island chains. The two genera show congruence in dispersal patterns, which corroborate divergence time estimates, although the overall mode and tempo of dispersal and diversification differ significantly as shown by distribution patterns of extant species.     

The effects of fossil placement and calibration on divergence times and rates: An example from the termites (Insecta: Isoptera)

Among insects, eusocial behavior occurs in termites, ants, some bees and wasps. Isoptera and Hymenoptera convergently share social behavior, and for both taxa its evolution remains poorly understood. While dating analyses provide researchers with the opportunity to date the origin of eusociality, fossil calibration methodology may mislead subsequent ecological interpretations. Using a comprehensive termite dataset, we explored the effect of fossil placement and calibration methodology. A combined molecular and morphological dataset for 42 extant termite lineages was used, and a second dataset including these 42 taxa, plus an additional 39 fossil lineages for which we had only morphological data. MrBayes doublet-model analyses recovered similar topologies, with one minor exception (Stolotermitidae is sister to the Hodotermitidae, s.s., in the 42-taxon analysis but is in a polytomy with Hodotermitidae and (Kalotermitidae + Neoisoptera) in the 81-taxon analysis). Analyses using the r8s program on these topologies were run with either minimum/maximum constraints (analysis a = 42-taxon and analysis c = 81-taxon analyses) or with the fossil taxon ages fixed (ages fixed to be the geological age of the deposit from which they came, analysis b = 81-taxon analysis). Confidence intervals were determined for the resulting ultrametric trees, and for most major clades there was significant overlap between dates recovered for analyses A and C (with exceptions, such as the nodes Neoisoptera, and Euisoptera). With the exception of isopteran and eusiopteran node ages, however, none of the major clade ages overlapped when analysis B is compared with either analysis A or C. Future studies on Dictyoptera should note that the age of Kalotermitidae was underestimated in absence of kalotermitid fossils with fixed ages.     

Integrating fossils in a molecular‐based phylogeny and testing them as calibration points for divergence time estimates in Menispermaceae

Abstract The phylogeny of extant Menispermaceae (Ranunculales) is reconstructed based on DNA sequences of two chloroplast genes (rbcL and atpB) from 94 species belonging to 56 genera. Fossilized endocarps represent 34 genera. The positions of these are inferred using 30 morphological characters and the molecular phylogeny as a backbone constraint. Nine of the thirteen nodes that are each dated by a fossil are used as calibration points for the estimates of molecular divergence times. BEAST is used to estimate stem age (121.2 Myr) and crown age (105.4 Myr) for Menispermaceae. This method does not require an input tree topology and can also account for rate heterogeneity among lineages. The sensitivity of these estimates to fossil constraints is then evaluated by a cross‐validation procedure. The estimated origin for Menispermaceae is dated to the mid‐Jurassic if the customary maximum age of 125 Myr for eudicots is not implemented. All constraints when used alone failed to estimate node ages in some parts of the tree. Fossils from the Palaeocene and Eocene impose strict constraints. Likewise, the use of Prototinomiscium as a dating constraint for Menispermaceae appears to be a conservative approach.     

Model-based multi-locus estimation of decapod phylogeny and divergence times

Phylogenetic relationships among all of the major decapod infraorders have never been estimated using molecular data, while morphological studies produce conflicting results. In the present study, the phylogenetic relationships among the decapod basal suborder Dendrobranchiata and all of the currently recognized decapod infraorders within the suborder Pleocyemata (Caridea, Stenopodidea, Achelata, Astacidea, Thalassinidea, Anomala, and Brachyura) were inferred using 16S mtDNA, 18S and 28S rRNA, and the histone H3 gene. Phylogenies were reconstructed using the model-based methods of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods coupled with Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference. The phylogenies revealed that the seven infraorders are monophyletic, with high clade support values (bp>70; pP>0.95) under both methods. The two suborders also were recovered as monophyletic, but with weaker support (bp=70; pP=0.74). Although the nodal support values for infraordinal relationships were low (bp<50; pP<0.77) the Anomala and Brachyura were basal to the rest of the 'Reptantia' in both reconstructions and using Bayesian tree topology tests alternate morphology-based hypotheses were rejected (P<0.01). Newly developed multi-locus Bayesian and likelihood heuristic rate-smoothing methods to estimate divergence times were compared using eight fossil and geological calibrations. Estimated times revealed that the Decapoda originated earlier than 437MYA and that the radiation within the group occurred rapidly, with all of the major lineages present by 325MYA. Node time estimation under both approaches is severely affected by the number and phylogenetic distribution of the fossil calibrations chosen. For analyses incorporating fossils as fixed ages, more consistent results were obtained by using both shallow and deep or clade-related calibration points. Divergence time estimation using fossils as lower and upper limits performed well with as few as one upper limit and a single deep fossil lower limit calibration.     

Bayesian estimation of species divergence times under a molecular clock using multiple fossil calibrations with soft bounds

We implement a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating species divergence times that uses heterogeneous data from multiple gene loci and accommodates multiple fossil calibration nodes. A birth-death process with species sampling is used to specify a prior for divergence times, which allows easy assessment of the effects of that prior on posterior time estimates. We propose a new approach for specifying calibration points on the phylogeny, which allows the use of arbitrary and flexible statistical distributions to describe uncertainties in fossil dates. In particular, we use soft bounds, so that the probability that the true divergence time is outside the bounds is small but nonzero. A strict molecular clock is assumed in the current implementation, although this assumption may be relaxed. We apply our new algorithm to two data sets concerning divergences of several primate species, to examine the effects of the substitution model and of the prior for divergence times on Bayesian time estimation. We also conduct computer simulation to examine the differences between soft and hard bounds. We demonstrate that divergence time estimation is intrinsically hampered by uncertainties in fossil calibrations, and the error in Bayesian time estimates will not go to zero with increased amounts of sequence data. Our analyses of both real and simulated data demonstrate potentially large differences between divergence time estimates obtained using soft versus hard bounds and a general superiority of soft bounds. Our main findings are as follows. (1) When the fossils are consistent with each other and with the molecular data, and the posterior time estimates are well within the prior bounds, soft and hard bounds produce similar results. (2) When the fossils are in conflict with each other or with the molecules, soft and hard bounds behave very differently; soft bounds allow sequence data to correct poor calibrations, while poor hard bounds are impossible to overcome by any amount of data. (3) Soft bounds eliminate the need for "safe" but unrealistically high upper bounds, which may bias posterior time estimates. (4) Soft bounds allow more reliable assessment of estimation errors, while hard bounds generate misleadingly high precisions when fossils and molecules are in conflict.     

Integrating fossils in a molecular-based phylogeny and testing them as calibration points for divergence time estimates in Menispermaceae

The phylogeny of extant Menispermaceae (Ranunculales) is reconstructed based on DNA sequences of two chloroplast genes (rbcL and atpB) from 94 species belonging to 56 genera. Fossilized endocarps represent 34 genera. The positions of these are inferred using 30 morphological characters and the molecular phylogeny as a backbone constraint. Nine of the thirteen nodes that are each dated by a fossil are used as calibration points for the estimates of molecular divergence times. BEAST is used to estimate stem a...     

Combining fossil and molecular data to date the diversification of New World Primates

Recent methodological advances in molecular dating associated with the growing availability of sequence data have prompted the study of the evolution of New World Anthropoidea in recent years. Motivated by questions regarding historical biogeography or the mode of evolution, these works aimed to obtain a clearer scenario of Platyrrhini origins and diversification. Although some consensus was found, disputed issues, especially those relating to the evolutionary affinities of fossil taxa, remain. The use of fossil taxa for divergence time analysis is traditionally restricted to the provision of calibration priors. However, new analytical approaches have been developed that incorporate fossils as terminals and, thus, directly assign ages to the fossil tips. In this study, we conducted a combined analysis of molecular and morphological data, including fossils, to derive the timescale of New World anthropoids. Differently from previous studies that conducted total‐evidence analysis of molecules and morphology, our approach investigated the morphological clock alone. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that living platyrrhines diversified in the last 20 Ma and that Miocene Patagonian fossils compose an independent evolutionary radiation that diversified in the late Oligocene. When compared to the node ages inferred from the molecular timescale, the inclusion of fossils augmented the precision of the estimates for nodes constrained by the fossil tips. We show that morphological data can be analysed using the same methodological framework applied in relaxed molecular clock studies.     

Fossil calibrations and molecular divergence time estimates in centrarchid fishes (Teleostei: Centrarchidae)

Molecular clock methods allow biologists to estimate divergence times, which in turn play an important role in comparative studies of many evolutionary processes. It is well known that molecular age estimates can be biased by heterogeneity in rates of molecular evolution, but less attention has been paid to the issue of potentially erroneous fossil calibrations. In this study we estimate the timing of diversification in Centrarchidae, an endemic major lineage of the diverse North American freshwater fish fauna, through a new approach to fossil calibration and molecular evolutionary model selection. Given a completely resolved multi-gene molecular phylogeny and a set of multiple fossil-inferred age estimates, we tested for potentially erroneous fossil calibrations using a recently developed fossil cross-validation. We also used fossil information to guide the selection of the optimal molecular evolutionary model with a new fossil jackknife method in a fossil-based model cross-validation. The centrarchid phylogeny resulted from a mixed-model Bayesian strategy that included 14 separate data partitions sampled from three mtDNA and four nuclear genes. Ten of the 31 interspecific nodes in the centrarchid phylogeny were assigned a minimal age estimate from the centrarchid fossil record. Our analyses identified four fossil dates that were inconsistent with the other fossils, and we removed them from the molecular dating analysis. Using fossil-based model cross-validation to determine the optimal smoothing value in penalized likelihood analysis, and six mutually consistent fossil calibrations, the age of the most recent common ancestor of Centrarchidae was 33.59 million years ago (mya). Penalized likelihood analyses of individual data partitions all converged on a very similar age estimate for this node, indicating that rate heterogeneity among data partitions is not confounding our analyses. These results place the origin of the centrarchid radiation at a time of major faunal turnover as the fossil record indicates that the most diverse lineages of the North American freshwater fish fauna originated at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, approximately 34 mya. This time coincided with major global climate change from warm to cool temperatures and a signature of elevated lineage extinction and origination in the fossil record across the tree of life. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of fossil cross-validation to critically assess individual fossil calibration points, providing the ability to discriminate between consistent and inconsistent fossil age estimates that are used for calibrating molecular phylogenies.     

A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibration points

A central challenge facing the temporal calibration of molecular phylogenies is finding a quantitative method for estimating maximum age constraints on lineage divergence times. Here, I provide such a method. This method requires an ultrametric tree generated without reference to the fossil record. Exploiting the fact that the relative branch lengths on the ultrametric tree are proportional to time, this method identifies the lineage with the greatest proportion of its true temporal range covered by the fossil record. The oldest fossil of this calibration lineage is used as the minimum age constraint. The maximum age constraint is obtained by adding a confidence interval onto the end point of the calibration lineage, thus making it possible to bracket the true divergence times of all lineages on the tree. The approach can also identify fossils that have been grossly misdated or misassigned to the phylogeny. The method assumes that the relative branch lengths on the ultrametric tree are accurate and that fossilization is random. The effect of violations of these assumptions is assessed. This method is simple to use and is illustrated with a reanalysis of Near et al.'s turtle data.     

Divergence dates for Malagasy lemurs estimated from multiple gene loci: geological and evolutionary context

The lemurs of Madagascar are a unique radiation of primates that show an extraordinary diversity of lifestyles, morphologies and behaviours. However, very little is known about the relative antiquity of lemuriform clades due to the lack of terrestrial fossils for the Tertiary of Madagascar. Here, we employ a Bayesian method to estimate divergence dates within the lemuriform radiation using several unlinked gene loci and multiple fossil calibrations outside the lemuriform clade. Two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome oxidase II and cytochrome b), two nuclear introns (transthyretin intron 1 and von Willebrand factor gene intron 11) and one nuclear exon (interphotoreceptor retinoid binding protein, exon 1) are used in separate and combined analyses. The genes differ in taxon sampling and evolutionary characteristics but produce congruent date estimates. Credibility intervals narrow considerably in combined analyses relative to separate analyses due to the increased amount of data. We also test the relative effects of multiple vs. single calibration points, finding that, when only single calibration points are employed, divergence dates are systematically underestimated. For the mitochondrial DNA data set, we investigate the effects of sampling density within the mouse lemur radiation (genus Microcebus). When only two representative species are included, estimated dates throughout the phylogeny are more recent than with the complete-species sample, with basal nodes less affected than recent nodes. The difference appears to be due to the manner in which priors on node ages are constructed in the two analyses. In nearly all analyses, the age of the lemuriform clade is estimated to be approximately 62-65 Ma, with initial radiation of mouse lemurs and true lemurs (genus Eulemur) occurring approximately 8-12 Ma. The antiquity of the mouse lemur radiation is surprising given the near uniform morphology among species. Moreover, the observation that mouse lemurs and true lemurs are of similar ages suggests discrepancies in rates of morphological, behavioural and physiological evolution in the two clades, particularly with regard to characteristics of sexual signalling. These differences appear to correlate with the nocturnal vs. diurnal lifestyles, respectively, of these two primate groups.     

Phylogenetic analysis of pelecaniformes (aves) based on osteological data: implications for waterbird phylogeny and fossil calibration studies

Background

Debate regarding the monophyly and relationships of the avian order Pelecaniformes represents a classic example of discord between morphological and molecular estimates of phylogeny. This lack of consensus hampers interpretation of the group''s fossil record, which has major implications for understanding patterns of character evolution (e.g., the evolution of wing-propelled diving) and temporal diversification (e.g., the origins of modern families). Relationships of the Pelecaniformes were inferred through parsimony analyses of an osteological dataset encompassing 59 taxa and 464 characters. The relationships of the Plotopteridae, an extinct family of wing-propelled divers, and several other fossil pelecaniforms (Limnofregata, Prophaethon, Lithoptila, ?Borvocarbo stoeffelensis) were also assessed. The antiquity of these taxa and their purported status as stem members of extant families makes them valuable for studies of higher-level avian diversification.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Pelecaniform monophyly is not recovered, with Phaethontidae recovered as distantly related to all other pelecaniforms, which are supported as a monophyletic Steganopodes. Some anatomical partitions of the dataset possess different phylogenetic signals, and partitioned analyses reveal that these discrepancies are localized outside of Steganopodes, and primarily due to a few labile taxa. The Plotopteridae are recovered as the sister taxon to Phalacrocoracoidea, and the relationships of other fossil pelecaniforms representing key calibration points are well supported, including Limnofregata (sister taxon to Fregatidae), Prophaethon and Lithoptila (successive sister taxa to Phaethontidae), and ?Borvocarbo stoeffelensis (sister taxon to Phalacrocoracidae). These relationships are invariant when ‘backbone’ constraints based on recent avian phylogenies are imposed.

Conclusions/Significance

Relationships of extant pelecaniforms inferred from morphology are more congruent with molecular phylogenies than previously assumed, though notable conflicts remain. The phylogenetic position of the Plotopteridae implies that wing-propelled diving evolved independently in plotopterids and penguins, representing a remarkable case of convergent evolution. Despite robust support for the placement of fossil taxa representing key calibration points, the successive outgroup relationships of several “stem fossil + crown family” clades are variable and poorly supported across recent studies of avian phylogeny. Thus, the impact these fossils have on inferred patterns of temporal diversification depends heavily on the resolution of deep nodes in avian phylogeny.     

Phylogeny of extant and fossil Juglandaceae inferred from the integration of molecular and morphological data sets

It is widely acknowledged that integrating fossils into data sets of extant taxa is imperative for proper placement of fossils, resolution of relationships, and a better understanding of character evolution. The importance of this process has been further magnified because of the crucial role of fossils in dating divergence times. Outstanding issues remain, including appropriate methods to place fossils in phylogenetic trees, the importance of molecules versus morphology in these analyses, as well as the impact of potentially large amounts of missing data for fossil taxa. In this study we used the angiosperm clade Juglandaceae as a model for investigating methods of integrating fossils into a phylogenetic framework of extant taxa. The clade has a rich fossil record relative to low extant diversity, as well as a robust molecular phylogeny and morphological database for extant taxa. After combining fossil organ genera into composite and terminal taxa, our objectives were to (1) compare multiple methods for the integration of the fossils and extant taxa (including total evidence, molecular scaffolds, and molecular matrix representation with parsimony [MRP]); (2) explore the impact of missing data (incomplete taxa and characters) and the evidence for placing fossils on the topology; (3) simulate the phylogenetic effect of missing data by creating "artificial fossils"; and (4) place fossils and compare the impact of single and multiple fossil constraints in estimating the age of clades. Despite large and variable amounts of missing data, each of the methods provided reasonable placement of both fossils and simulated "artificial fossils" in the phylogeny previously inferred only from extant taxa. Our results clearly show that the amount of missing data in any given taxon is not by itself an operational guideline for excluding fossils from analysis. Three fossil taxa (Cruciptera simsonii, Paleoplatycarya wingii, and Platycarya americana) were placed within crown clades containing living taxa for which relationships previously had been suggested based on morphology, whereas Polyptera manningii, a mosaic taxon with equivocal affinities, was placed firmly as sister to two modern crown clades. The position of Paleooreomunnea stoneana was ambiguous with total evidence but conclusive with DNA scaffolds and MRP. There was less disturbance of relationships among extant taxa using a total evidence approach, and the DNA scaffold approach did not provide improved resolution or internal support for clades compared to total evidence, whereas weighted MRP retained comparable levels of support but lost crown clade resolution. Multiple internal minimum age constraints generally provided reasonable age estimates, but the use of single constraints provided by extinct genera tended to underestimate clade ages.