SOLVING THE PARADOX OF STASIS: SQUASHED STABILIZING SELECTION AND THE LIMITS OF DETECTION

Despite the potential for rapid evolution, stasis is commonly observed over geological timescales—the so‐called “paradox of stasis.” This paradox would be resolved if stabilizing selection were common, but stabilizing selection is infrequently detected in natural populations. We hypothesize a simple solution to this apparent disconnect: stabilizing selection is hard to detect empirically once populations have adapted to a fitness peak. To test this hypothesis, we developed an individual‐based model of a population evolving under an invariant stabilizing fitness function. Stabilizing selection on the population was infrequently detected in an “empirical” sampling protocol, because (1) trait variation was low relative to the fitness peak breadth; (2) nonselective deaths masked selection; (3) populations wandered around the fitness peak; and (4) sample sizes were typically too small. Moreover, the addition of negative frequency‐dependent selection further hindered detection by flattening or even dimpling the fitness peak, a phenomenon we term “squashed stabilizing selection.” Our model demonstrates that stabilizing selection provides a plausible resolution to the paradox of stasis despite its infrequent detection in nature. The key reason is that selection “erases its traces”: once populations have adapted to a fitness peak, they are no longer expected to exhibit detectable stabilizing selection.     

How stabilizing selection and nongenetic inheritance combine to shape the evolution of phenotypic plasticity

Relatively little is known about whether and how nongenetic inheritance interacts with selection to impact the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we empirically evaluated how stabilizing selection and a common form of nongenetic inheritance—maternal environmental effects—jointly influence the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in natural populations of spadefoot toads. We compared populations that previous fieldwork has shown to have evolved conspicuous plasticity in resource‐use phenotypes (“resource polyphenism”) with those that, owing to stabilizing selection favouring a narrower range of such phenotypes, appear to have lost this plasticity. We show that: (a) this apparent loss of plasticity in nature reflects a condition‐dependent maternal effect and not a genetic loss of plasticity, that is “genetic assimilation,” and (b) this plasticity is not costly. By shielding noncostly plasticity from selection, nongenetic inheritance generally, and maternal effects specifically, can preclude genetic assimilation from occurring and consequently impede adaptive (genetic) evolution.     

Body size evolution in an old insect order: No evidence for Cope's Rule in spite of fitness benefits of large size

We integrate field data and phylogenetic comparative analyses to investigate causes of body size evolution and stasis in an old insect order: odonates (“dragonflies and damselflies”). Fossil evidence for “Cope's Rule” in odonates is weak or nonexistent since the last major extinction event 65 million years ago, yet selection studies show consistent positive selection for increased body size among adults. In particular, we find that large males in natural populations of the banded demoiselle (Calopteryx splendens) over several generations have consistent fitness benefits both in terms of survival and mating success. Additionally, there was no evidence for stabilizing or conflicting selection between fitness components within the adult life‐stage. This lack of stabilizing selection during the adult life‐stage was independently supported by a literature survey on different male and female fitness components from several odonate species. We did detect several significant body size shifts among extant taxa using comparative methods and a large new molecular phylogeny for odonates. We suggest that the lack of Cope's rule in odonates results from conflicting selection between fitness advantages of large adult size and costs of long larval development. We also discuss competing explanations for body size stasis in this insect group.     

Natural soil microbes alter flowering phenology and the intensity of selection on flowering time in a wild Arabidopsis relative

Plant phenology is known to depend on many different environmental variables, but soil microbial communities have rarely been acknowledged as possible drivers of flowering time. Here, we tested separately the effects of four naturally occurring soil microbiomes and their constituent soil chemistries on flowering phenology and reproductive fitness of Boechera stricta, a wild relative of Arabidopsis. Flowering time was sensitive to both microbes and the abiotic properties of different soils; varying soil microbiota also altered patterns of selection on flowering time. Thus, soil microbes potentially contribute to phenotypic plasticity of flowering time and to differential selection observed between habitats. We also describe a method to dissect the microbiome into single axes of variation that can help identify candidate organisms whose abundance in soil correlates with flowering time. This approach is broadly applicable to search for microbial community members that alter biological characteristics of interest.     

Variation in circadian rhythms is maintained among and within populations in Boechera stricta

Circadian clocks have evolved independently in all three domains of life, and fitness benefits of a functional clock have been demonstrated in experimental genotypes in controlled conditions. Still, little is known about genetic variation in the clock and its fitness consequences in natural populations from heterogeneous environments. Using Wyoming populations of the Arabidopsis relative Boechera stricta as our study system, we demonstrate that genetic variation in the clock can occur at multiple levels: means of circadian period among populations sampled at different elevations differed by less than 1 h, but means among families sampled within populations varied by as much as 3.5 h. Growth traits also varied among and within populations. Within the population with the most circadian variation, we observed evidence for a positive correlation between period and growth and a negative correlation between period and root‐to‐shoot ratio. We then tested whether performance tradeoffs existed among families of this population across simulated seasonal settings. Growth rankings of families were similar across seasonal environments, but for root‐to‐shoot ratio, genotype × environment interactions contributed significantly to total variation. Therefore, further experiments are needed to identify evolutionary mechanisms that preserve substantial quantitative genetic diversity in the clock in this and other species.     

Antagonistic selection and pleiotropy constrain the evolution of plant chemical defenses

When pleiotropy is present, genetic correlations may constrain the evolution of ecologically important traits. We used a quantitative genetics approach to investigate constraints on the evolution of secondary metabolites in a wild mustard, Boechera stricta. Much of the genetic variation in chemical composition of glucosinolates in B. stricta is controlled by a single locus, BCMA1/3. In a large‐scale common garden experiment under natural conditions, we quantified fitness and glucosinolate profile in two leaf types and in fruits. We estimated genetic variances and covariances (the G ‐matrix) and selection on chemical profile in each tissue. Chemical composition of defenses was strongly genetically correlated between tissues. We found antagonistic selection between defense composition in leaves and fruits: compounds that were favored in leaves were disadvantageous in fruits. The positive genetic correlations and antagonistic selection led to strong constraints on the evolution of defenses in leaves and fruits. In a hypothetical population with no genetic variation at BCMA1/3, we found no evidence for genetic constraints, indicating that pleiotropy affecting chemical profile in multiple tissues drives constraints on the evolution of secondary metabolites.     

Quantifying the causal pathways contributing to natural selection

The consequences of natural selection can be understood from a purely statistical perspective. In contrast, an explicitly causal approach is required to understand why trait values covary with fitness. In particular, key evolutionary constructs, such as sexual selection, fecundity selection, and so on, are best understood as selection via particular fitness components. To formalize and operationalize these concepts, we must disentangle the various causal pathways contributing to selection. Such decompositions are currently only known for linear models, where they are sometimes referred to as “Wright's rules.” Here, we provide a general framework, based on path analysis, for partitioning selection among its contributing causal pathways. We show how the extended selection gradient—which represents selection arising from a trait's causal effects on fitness—can be decomposed into path-specific selection gradients, which correspond to distinct causal mechanisms of selection. This framework allows for nonlinear effects and nonadditive interactions among variables, which may be estimated using standard statistical methods (e.g., generalized linear [mixed] models or generalized additive models). We thus provide a generalization of Wright's path rules that accommodates the nonlinear and nonadditive mechanisms by which natural selection commonly arises.     

GENERALISTS,SPECIALISTS, AND THE EVOLUTION OF PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY IN SYMPATRIC POPULATIONS OF DISTINCT SPECIES

The evolution of phenotypic plasticity is studied in a model with two reproductively isolated “species” in a coarse-grained environment, consisting of two types of habitats. A quantitative genetic model for selection was constructed, in which habitats differ in the optimal value for a focal trait, and with random dispersal among habitats. The main interest was to study the effects of different selection regimes. Three cases were investigated: (1) without any limits to plasticity; (2) without genetic variation for plasticity; and (3) with a fitness cost for phenotypically plastic reactions. In almost all cases a generalist strategy to exploit both habitats emerged. Without any limits to plasticity, optimal adaptive reactions evolved. Without any genetic variation for plasticity, a compromise strategy with an intermediate, fixed phenotype evolved, whereas in the presence of costs a plastic compromise between the demands of the habitats and the costs associated with plasticity was found. Specialization and phenotypic differentiation was only found when selection within habitats was severe and optimal phenotypes for different habitats were widely different. Under soft selection (local regulation of population numbers in each habitat) the specialists coexisted; under hard selection (global regulation of population numbers) one specialist outcompeted the other. The prevalent evolutionary outcome of compromises rather than specialization implies that costs or constraints are not necessarily detectable as local adaptation in transplantation or translocation experiments.     

The heritable basis and cost of colour plasticity in coastrange sculpins

Both genetic and plastic traits contribute to adaptation in novel environments. Phenotypic plasticity can facilitate adaptation by allowing for existence in a wider range of conditions and a faster response to environmental change than gene‐based selection. Coastrange sculpins (Cottus aleuticus) colonize new and variable streams arising in the wake of receding glaciers in south‐east Alaska, and substrate‐matching plasticity may enhance colonization success by reducing detection by visual predators. As part of a long‐term study of the fitness consequences of colour plasticity and its capacity to respond to both positive and negative selection, we investigated whether it is heritable and costly. We raised full‐sib broods of sculpins in the laboratory: one half of each brood was raised in white containers, the other half in black. After 4 months, we digitally analysed their colour and found significant but weak heritability in both baseline colour and colour plasticity. To investigate the cost of colour plasticity, we compared the growth and mortality rates of juvenile sculpins reared under constant substrate colours to those reared on substrates that changed colour frequently, and compared growth rates among sculpin that differed in their colour change ability. We found evidence of small costs of plasticity, consistent with other studies of natural populations. Evidence of heritable genetic variation for plasticity and small costs to its maintenance and expression contributes to explanations of how plasticity is variable and persistent among wild populations and underscores its ability to respond both positively and negatively to selection in variable habitats.     

Plasticity in functional traits in the context of climate change: a case study of the subalpine forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae)

Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low‐elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2–3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco‐evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.     

Multivariate selection shapes environment-dependent variation in the clonal morphology of a red seaweed

Within-individual strategies of variation (e.g., phenotypic plasticity) are particularly relevant to modular organisms, in which ramets of the same genetic individual may encounter diverse environments imposing diverse patterns of selection. Hence, measuring selection in heterogeneous environments is essential to understanding whether environment-dependent phenotypic change enhances the fitness of modular individuals. In sublittoral marine habitats, competition for light and space among modular taxa generates extreme patchiness in resource availability. Little is known, however, of the potential for plasticity within individuals to arise from spatially-variable selection in such systems. We tested whether plasticity enhances genet-level fitness in Asparagopsis armata, a clonal seaweed in which correlated traits mediate morphological responses to variation in light. Using the capacity for rapid, clonal growth to measure fitness, we identified aspects of ramet morphology targeted by selection in two contrasting light environments and compared patterns of selection across environments. We found that directional selection on single traits, coupled with linear and nonlinear selection on multi-trait interactions, shape ramet morphology within environments and favor different phenotypes in each. Evidence of environment-dependent, multivariate selection on correlated traits is novel for any marine modular organism and demonstrates that seaweeds, such as A. armata, may potentially adapt to environmental heterogeneity via plasticity in clonal morphology.     

EVOLUTIONARY INFERENCES FROM THE ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGEABILITY

Evolutionary inferences are usually based on statistical models that compare mean genotypes or phenotypes (or their frequencies) among populations. An alternative is to use the full distribution of genotypes and phenotypes to infer the “exchangeability” of individuals among populations. We illustrate this approach by using discriminant functions on principal components to classify individuals among paired lake and stream populations of threespine stickleback in each of six independent watersheds. Classification based on neutral and nonneutral microsatellite markers was highest to the population of origin and next highest to populations in the same watershed. These patterns are consistent with the influence of historical contingency (separate colonization of each watershed) and subsequent gene flow (within but not between watersheds). In comparison to this low genetic exchangeability, ecological (diet) and morphological (trophic and armor traits) exchangeability was relatively high—particularly among populations from similar habitats. These patterns reflect the role of natural selection in driving parallel adaptive changes when independent populations colonize similar habitats. Importantly, however, substantial nonparallelism was also evident. Our results show that analyses based on exchangeability can confirm inferences based on statistical analyses of means or frequencies, while also refining insights into the drivers of—and constraints on—evolutionary diversification.     

Variability of functional traits and their syndromes in a freshwater fish species (Phoxinus phoxinus): The role of adaptive and nonadaptive processes

Functional traits can covary to form “functional syndromes.” Describing and understanding functional syndromes is an important prerequisite for predicting the effects of organisms on ecosystem functioning. At the intraspecific level, functional syndromes have recently been described, but very little is known about their variability among populations and—if they vary—what the ecological and evolutionary drivers of this variation are. Here, we quantified and compared the variability in four functional traits (body mass, metabolic rate, excretion rate, and boldness), their covariations and the subsequent syndromes among thirteen populations of a common freshwater fish (the European minnow, Phoxinus phoxinus). We then tested whether functional traits and their covariations, as well as the subsequent syndromes, were underpinned by the phylogenetic relatedness among populations (historical effects) or the local environment (i.e., temperature and predation pressure), and whether adaptive (selection or plasticity) or nonadaptive (genetic drift) processes sustained among‐population variability. We found substantial among‐population variability in functional traits and trait covariations, and in the emerging syndromes. We further found that adaptive mechanisms (plasticity and/or selection) related to water temperature and predation pressure modulated the covariation between body mass and metabolic rate. Other trait covariations were more likely driven by genetic drift, suggesting that nonadaptive processes can also lead to substantial differences in trait covariations among populations. Overall, we concluded that functional syndromes are population‐specific, and that both adaptive and nonadaptive processes are shaping functional traits. Given the pivotal role of functional traits, differences in functional syndromes within species provide interesting perspectives regarding the role of intraspecific diversity for ecosystem functioning.     

PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY IN POLYGONUM PERSICARIA. I. DIVERSITY AND UNIFORMITY IN GENOTYPIC NORMS OF REACTION TO LIGHT

Several aspects of genotype-environment interaction may act to modulate natural selection in populations that encounter variable environments. In this study the norms of reaction (phenotypic responses) of 20 cloned genotypes from two natural populations of the annual plant Polygonum persicaria were determined over a broad range of controlled light environments (8%-100% full sun). These data reveal both the extent of functionally adaptive phenotypic plasticity expressed by individual genotypes, and the patterns of diversity among genotypes for characters relevant to fitness, in response to an environmental factor that is both highly variable within populations and critical to growth and reproduction.     

Source-sink populations in Mediterranean Blue tits: evidence using single-locus minisatellite probes

Long term studies on population biology of Blue tits (Parus caeruleus L.) in Mediterranean habitats have shown that in patchy landscapes life-history traits seem to be adapted to the predominant type of habitat, where reproductive success is higher. The “source-sink hypothesis” suggests that differences in the local production of fledglings result in an asymmetrical gene flow from rich deciduous habitats (“source”) to evergreen poor habitats (“sink”), preventing local adaptation in evergreen habitats. In this study we used single-locus minisatellite DNA probes to test the following predictions of the source-sink hypothesis: 1) source and sink populations are not genetically differentiated; 2) amount of gene flow is ranked in the following decreasing order: between source and sink habitats, among source habitats and among sink habitats; and 3) linkage disequilibrium is higher in sink than in source populations. Results were consistent with these three predictions, and with previous results obtained using other approaches. Results clearly support a source-sink functioning of Blue tit populations in southern France mosaic landscapes, and emphasise the need of combining genetic and ecological studies to understand the functioning of natural populations.     

Identification of candidate loci for adaptive phenotypic plasticity in natural populations of spadefoot toads

Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to alter their phenotype in direct response to changes in the environment. Despite growing recognition of plasticity's role in ecology and evolution, few studies have probed plasticity's molecular bases—especially using natural populations. We investigated the genetic basis of phenotypic plasticity in natural populations of spadefoot toads (Spea multiplicata). Spea tadpoles normally develop into an “omnivore” morph that is favored in long‐lasting, low‐density ponds. However, if tadpoles consume freshwater shrimp or other tadpoles, they can alternatively develop (via plasticity) into a “carnivore” morph that is favored in ephemeral, high‐density ponds. By combining natural variation in pond ecology and morph production with population genetic approaches, we identified candidate loci associated with each morph (carnivores vs. omnivores) and loci associated with adaptive phenotypic plasticity (adaptive vs. maladaptive morph choice). Our candidate morph loci mapped to two genes, whereas our candidate plasticity loci mapped to 14 genes. In both cases, the identified genes tended to have functions related to their putative role in spadefoot tadpole biology. Our results thereby form the basis for future studies into the molecular mechanisms that mediate plasticity in spadefoots. More generally, these results illustrate how diverse loci might mediate adaptive plasticity.     

DISSECTING CORRELATED CHARACTERS: ADAPTIVE ASPECTS OF PHENOTYPIC COVARIATION IN MELANIZATION PATTERN OF PIERIS BUTTERFLIES

In this study we address the question of how much of the covariation among phenotypic characters observed in natural populations is adaptive. We examine covariation among a set of phenotypic characters that describe the wing-melanization pattern of Pieris butterflies. Previous functional analyses of thermoregulatory performance allow us to predict a priori whether and how different wing melanic characters should be correlated. We quantify and analyze the variation in the wing-melanization pattern within species for a series of Pieris populations from relatively cool environments in North America and compare these results with the predictions based on our adaptive hypothesis. We consider adaptive covariation both for biogeographic variation among populations and for seasonal polyphenism (phenotypic plasticity) within populations. Our hypothesis correctly predicts many of the qualitative features of covariation in melanization among major regions of the wings, at the level of biogeographic variation among populations, for both males and females of Pieris occidentalis. When within-population variation is considered, agreement with the adaptive predictions varies considerably in different populations for both P. occidentalis and P. napi males and females. Agreement for P. napi, particularly the females, is generally poorer than for P. occidentalis. In both species, there is a consistent difference in melanization pattern between alpine and arctic sites; this difference is discussed in relation to the differences in the radiative environment between these two types of “cold” habitats. Our results suggest that some important aspects of phenotypic correlation among wing melanic characters in Pieris are adaptive. We emphasize the important distinction between covariation and co-occurrence of characters, and we discuss these results in relation to the extensive biogeographic variation and phenotypic plasticity (seasonal polyphenism) in Pieris wing-melanization patterns.     

THE GENETIC BASIS OF THE ECOLOGICAL AMPLITUDE OF SPARTINA PATENS. II. VARIANCE AND CORRELATION ANALYSIS

Reciprocal transplantations of Spartina patens genotypes from adjacent salt marsh, swale, and dune habitats provided evidence for genetic differentiation among subpopulations, due at least in part to contrasting selection regimes. Genet survival in the different habitats was related to the amount of genetic divergence. In the dune habitat, marsh ramets showed the lowest survival, swale ramets showed intermediate survival, and dune ramets showed the highest survival. This relationship was not reciprocal, however. The marsh habitat afforded an environment where survival was maximal for all genotypes. Thus, by comparison, the dune environment appeared to impose a more intense selection pressure, and the swale an intermediate selection pressure on Spartina patens. In each site resident genotypes tended to show greater relative fitness than aliens. This evidence for genetic divergence corroborates that previously reported on morphometric (Silander and Antonovics, 1979) and allozymic traits (Silander, 1984). High levels of phenotypic plasticity may permit greater adaptation to the spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment occupied by S. patens than would genetic variation alone. Dune and swale genets were more phenotypically plastic across traits examined than were marsh genotypes. The higher plasticity in these peripheral subpopulations may confer increased fitness among residents and compensate for observed declines in genetic variation. A slight decrease in genetic variability was evident from marsh to dune subpopulations. However, since the differences in genetic variation among subpopulations were small, and disparities did occur, it is unlikely that evolutionary divergence is retarded primarily by a lack of genetic variability in the characters considered. Evidence is presented to indicate that evolutionary divergence among subpopulations may be retarded by negative or unfavorable correlations among characters being selected simultaneously. These negative correlations may increase extinction probabilities in small peripheral populations, such as those represented by the dune or swale, and are likely to lower fitness. Based on these observations, I hypothesize that further microevolution may be retarded in peripheral dune and swale subpopulations, primarily by unfavorable genetic correlation structures among fitness components or characters under simultaneous selection. Contributing factors may include lowered genetic variance and higher levels of phenotypic plasticity.     

Climate change shifts natural selection and the adaptive potential of the perennial forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains

Heritable genetic variation is necessary for populations to evolve in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, antagonistic genetic correlations among traits may constrain the rate of adaptation, even if substantial genetic variation exists. We examine potential genetic responses to selection by comparing multivariate genetic variance–covariances of traits and fitness (multivariate Robertson–Price identities) across different environments in a reciprocal transplant experiment of the forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains. By transplanting populations into four common gardens arrayed along an elevational gradient, and exposing populations to control and snow removal treatments, we simulated future and current climates and snowmelt regimes. Genetic variation in flowering and germination phenology declined in plants moved downslope to warmer, drier sites, suggesting that these traits may have a limited ability to evolve under future climates. Simulated climate change via snow removal altered the strength of selection on flowering traits, but we found little evidence that genetic correlations among traits are likely to affect the rate of adaptation to climate change. Overall, our results suggest that climate change may alter the evolutionary potential of B. stricta, but reduced expression of genetic variation may be a larger impediment to adaptation than constraints imposed by antagonistic genetic correlations.     

Spatial variation in phenotypic selection on floral characteristics in an epiphytic orchid

Spatial variation in twelve floral characters was examined in an epiphytic orchidLepanthes rupestris to evaluate the strength and direction of phenotypic selection in seven riparian populations along two river basins in the Caribbean National Forest “El Yunque” for a range of 18–34 months. We evaluated selection on floral characters based on male (pollinaria removal) and female fitness (fruit set). Simple linear and quadratic regressions were used to evaluate the strength of directional, disruptive and stabilizing selections. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to estimate the total strength of the selection acting on a character. Phenotypic selection was inconsistent among characters and populations. Few of the characters appeared to be under selection and none of them was found to be consistent throughout all populations. Inconsistency in selection coefficients among populations could suggest that selection is spatially variable. We only noted one character (column length) which had some consistency in differential selection coefficients among populations. Previous studies have shown that effective population sizes inL. rupestris are small and the observed “fitness differences” among populations could as easily be explained as stochastic events at play. We argue that the observed “fitness differences” in most characters and inconsistency among populations are likely from stochastic noise and not phenotypic selection. Consequently, we propose that random selection on character state support the hypothesis of genetic drift in small orchid populations.