Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal wetlands worldwide, yet the fate of individual wetlands will vary based on local topography, wetland morphology, sediment dynamics, hydrologic processes, and plant‐mediated feedbacks. Local variability in these factors makes it difficult to predict SLR effects across wetlands or to develop a holistic regional perspective on SLR response for a diversity of wetland types. To improve regional predictions of SLR impacts to coastal wetlands, we developed a model that addresses the scale‐dependent factors controlling SLR response and accommodates different levels of data availability. The model quantifies SLR‐driven habitat conversion within wetlands across a region by predicting changes in individual wetland hypsometry. This standardized approach can be applied to all wetlands in a region regardless of data availability, making it ideal for modeling SLR response across a range of scales. Our model was applied to 105 wetlands in southern California that spanned a broad range of typology and data availability. Our findings suggest that if wetlands are confined to their current extents, the region will lose 12% of marsh habitats (vegetated marsh and unvegetated flats) with 0.6 m of SLR (projected for 2050) and 48% with 1.7 m of SLR (projected for 2100). Habitat conversion was more drastic in wetlands with larger proportions of marsh habitats relative to subtidal habitats and occurred more rapidly in small lagoons relative to larger sites. Our assessment can inform management of coastal wetland vulnerability, improve understanding of the SLR drivers relevant to individual wetlands, and highlight significant data gaps that impede SLR response modeling across spatial scales. This approach augments regional SLR assessments by considering spatial variability in SLR response drivers, addressing data gaps, and accommodating wetland diversity, which will provide greater insights into regional SLR response that are relevant to coastal management and restoration efforts.     

Thresholds of sea‐level rise rate and sea‐level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

Feedbacks among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea‐level rise (SLR ). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold helps address key challenges in ecology—nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, promotes communication between ecologists and resource managers, and facilitates decision‐making in climate change policies. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to enhanced anthropogenic forces. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. We chose a representative marine‐dominated estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Grand Bay in Mississippi, to test the concept of SLR thresholds. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and then derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay. The model results show that the threshold of SLR rate in Grand Bay is 11.9 mm/year for 2050, and it drops to 8.4 mm/year for 2100 using total wetland area as a landscape metric. The corresponding SLR acceleration rate thresholds are 3.02 × 10^?4 m/year² and 9.62 × 10^?5 m/year² for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The newly developed SLR acceleration rate threshold can help quantify the temporal lag before the rapid decline in wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded, and cumulative SLR a wetland can adapt to under the SLR acceleration scenarios. Based on the thresholds, SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), highlighting the need to avoid RCP 8.5 to preserve these marshes.     

Coastal and marine wetlands in Gulf St. Vincent,South Australia: understanding their loss and degradation

Despite the vastness of South Australia's coastline, approximately 95% of the state's population of 1.4 million is on the Adelaide metropolitan coast of Gulf St. Vincent. The concentration of human activity around this shallow, sheltered gulf ecosystem has led to conflict and competition over the use of marine and coastal resources. The gulf supports extensive areas of ecologically significant subtidal and tidal coastal wetlands, comprising seagrass meadows, mangroves and saltmarshes, with nine wetlands having recognized national importance. The wetlands support economic activities such as commercial and recreational fishing, tourism and aquaculture, and to a lesser extent, mineral and petroleum exploration and shipping. These environments and activities are threatened by the effects of land-based urbanization, coastal development, stormwater runoff effluent and industrial discharges, and the resultant decline in water quality and food-chain contamination. Marine activities can also have adverse effects (i.e., dredging, sea-dumping, overfishing, fishing methods, oil spills, antifoulants, ballast water introductions), including the developing aquaculture industry. The continued loss and degradation of marine and coastal wetlands in the gulf is exacerbated by inadequate protection measures, lack of integrated management structures and policies, and conflict between competing user groups. Strong policies and integrated decision making based on sound information is required for the equitable and sustainable use of these wetlands. Gulf-level management of multiple-uses would limit the cumulative impacts of human use and coastal development. There is a particular need to protect areas with high conservation value and for future research and marine conservation to focus on the coastal nearshore ecosystem. High priorities are coastal and biodiversity inventories, understanding of ecological processes, linkages between coastal and offshore habitats, and coastal spatial mapping and information systems.     

Can mangroves keep pace with contemporary sea level rise? A global data review

Coastal vegetated wetlands such as mangrove forests provide multiple ecosystem services, though are potentially threatened by contemporary accelerated sea level rise (SLR), in addition to other immediate threats such as agriculture and coastal development. Several studies have revealed that mangroves are able to adapt to, and keep pace with local relative SLR through vertical surface elevation change (SEC), however data are lacking, with often only surface accretion rate (SAR) data available. We systematically review published studies of SEC and SAR from globally distributed monitoring sites using meta-analysis, and compare them with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) SLR scenarios. Hydro-geomorphic setting plays an important role, with basin mangroves potentially less vulnerable to SLR through land building processes. We find that SAR in both basin and fringe mangroves can cope with low SLR scenario (RCP 2.6) throughout the 100 years projection period. However, SAR can only keep pace with high SLR scenario (RCP 8.5) up to year 2070 and 2055 in basin and fringe mangrove settings respectively. These were associated with potential sediment accumulation of 41 cm and 29 cm respectively from the baseline. Mangrove degradation promoted lowering trends of SEC, while mangrove management such as rehabilitation practice stimulated positive trends of SEC. Mangrove ecosystems may be vulnerable to contemporary SLR in small island locations such as the Caribbean, East Africa and parts of the Indo-Pacific that are dominated by fringe mangroves and where SEC cannot keep pace with both low and high IPCC AR5 SLR scenarios. A global expansion of current mangrove surface elevation monitoring effort is urgently needed in order to better assess the vulnerability of mangroves, and the factors affecting their resiliency in the face of rising sea levels.     

Future climate change driven sea‐level rise: secondary consequences from human displacement for island biodiversity

Sea‐level rise (SLR) due to global warming will result in the loss of many coastal areas. The direct or primary effects due to inundation and erosion from SLR are currently being assessed; however, the indirect or secondary ecological effects, such as changes caused by the displacement of human populations, have not been previously evaluated. We examined the potential ecological consequences of future SLR on >1,200 islands in the Southeast Asian and the Pacific region. Using three SLR scenarios (1, 3, and 6 m elevation, where 1 m approximates most predictions by the end of this century), we assessed the consequences of primary and secondary SLR effects from human displacement on habitat availability and distributions of selected mammal species. We estimate that between 3–32% of the coastal zone of these islands could be lost from primary effects, and consequently 8–52 million people would become SLR refugees. Assuming that inundated urban and intensive agricultural areas will be relocated with an equal area of habitat loss in the hinterland, we project that secondary SLR effects can lead to an equal or even higher percent range loss than primary effects for at least 10–18% of the sample mammals in a moderate range loss scenario and for 22–46% in a maximum range loss scenario. In addition, we found some species to be more vulnerable to secondary than primary effects. Finally, we found high spatial variation in vulnerability: species on islands in Oceania are more vulnerable to primary SLR effects, whereas species on islands in Indo‐Malaysia, with potentially 7–48 million SLR refugees, are more vulnerable to secondary effects. Our findings show that primary and secondary SLR effects can have enormous consequences for human inhabitants and island biodiversity, and that both need to be incorporated into ecological risk assessment, conservation, and regional planning.     

Simulating the Effects of Sea Level Rise on the Resilience and Migration of Tidal Wetlands along the Hudson River

Sea Level Rise (SLR) caused by climate change is impacting coastal wetlands around the globe. Due to their distinctive biophysical characteristics and unique plant communities, freshwater tidal wetlands are expected to exhibit a different response to SLR as compared with the better studied salt marshes. In this study we employed the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), which simulates regional- or local-scale changes in tidal wetland habitats in response to SLR, and adapted it for application in a freshwater-dominated tidal river system, the Hudson River Estuary. Using regionally-specific estimated ranges of SLR and accretion rates, we produced simulations for a spectrum of possible future wetland distributions and quantified the projected wetland resilience, migration or loss in the HRE through the end of the 21^st century. Projections of total wetland extent and migration were more strongly determined by the rate of SLR than the rate of accretion. Surprisingly, an increase in net tidal wetland area was projected under all scenarios, with newly-formed tidal wetlands expected to comprise at least 33% of the HRE’s wetland area by year 2100. Model simulations with high rates of SLR and/or low rates of accretion resulted in broad shifts in wetland composition with widespread conversion of high marsh habitat to low marsh, tidal flat or permanent inundation. Wetland expansion and resilience were not equally distributed through the estuary, with just three of 48 primary wetland areas encompassing >50% of projected new wetland by the year 2100. Our results open an avenue for improving predictive models of the response of freshwater tidal wetlands to sea level rise, and broadly inform the planning of conservation measures of this critical resource in the Hudson River Estuary.     

大亚湾生态环境的退化现状与特征

我国沿岸水域,盐沼、红树林、珊瑚礁、河口内湾和一些浅海区等生态系统已处于不同程度的退化状态,日益严重的退化现象已引起人们极大的关注。本文根据历史资料,探讨了大亚湾生态环境的退化现状与特征,主要反映在物种组成、群落结构、演替和生产力等结构功能的衰退以及环境的恶化;资料分析表明,大型建设造成的岸线变化、耕地湿地减少、陆源物质大量输入、水产养殖业发展引发的水质富营养化,以及过度捕捞等人类干扰,加速了大亚湾生态环境退化。本文就大亚湾生态环境退化问题,提出为受损海湾生态环境的修复重建和持续利用的参考建议。     

海平面上升对生态系统服务价值的影响及适应措施

海平面上升导致了海岸线后退、沿海侵蚀、风暴潮加强、生物栖息地改变、湿地变迁等,引起了近海域生态系统服务价值的变化。以美国Hillsborough County为研究区域,应用SLAMM模型,模拟了海平面从2010年—2100年上升1m的情景下各类用地面积的变化,利用效益转移法评价了生态系统服务价值的变化。结果表明:1旱地面积减少3037 hm~2,湿地面积增加3037hm~2,其中河口水域、滩涂、盐沼、定期洪水沼泽面积大幅度增加;季节性洪水沼泽、潮汐淡水沼泽、河流潮汐、沙滩面积大幅度减少,其它类型湿地受影响较小。2湿地总面积的增加反而导致了生态系统服务价值总量的降低,从2010年的61672万美元降低到2100年的61548万美元,这是由于净水湿地和沙滩大面积损失引起的;其中艺术娱乐、水调节、气候调节、文化精神价值将下降,水供应、栖息地保护、干扰调节和废物处理价值将上升。3防护、适应、后退3种措施分别降低、不影响、提升了生态系统服务价值,应根据其适用范围综合应用以制定应对海平面上升的适应性措施。     

Impacts of a half century of sea‐level rise and development on an endangered mammal

The extraordinary growth of human populations and development in coastal areas over the last half century has eliminated and degraded coastal habitats and threatened the persistence of associated wildlife. Moreover, human‐induced sea‐level rise (SLR) is projected to further eliminate and alter the same coastal ecosystems, especially low‐lying regions. Whereas habitat loss and wildlife population declines from development are well documented, contemporary SLR has not yet been implicated in declines of coastal faunal populations. In addition, the projection of severe synergistic impacts from the combination of development and SLR is well described, yet the scientific literature offers little empirical evidence of the influence of these forces on coastal wildlife. Analysis of aerial photographs from 1959 to 2006 provided evidence of a 64% net loss of the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit's (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri; LKMR) habitat, the majority due to SLR (>48%). Furthermore, there was a strong negative relationship between the proportion of development per island and the amount of new habitat formed. Islands with modest development (less than 8% of land area) saw formation of new areas of marsh vegetation suitable for rabbits, whereas islands with 8% or more of their lands developed between 1959 and 2006 saw little to no addition of LKMR habitat. Only 8% of habitat loss was directly due to conversion to impervious surfaces, indicating that the greatest threats from development were indirect, including blocking of the inland migration of habitat triggered by SLR. Our results were consistent with an ongoing squeeze of coastal ecosystems between rising seas and development as a threat to LKMR habitat, which raises concern for a wide variety of coastal species. Our results provide evidence that SLR has become a contemporary conservation concern, one that is exacerbated by development, and expected to increase in magnitude as ocean waters continue to rise.     

海岸线变化研究综述

受全球及海岸带区域环境过程与人类活动的综合影响,海岸线发生剧烈的变化,对生态、环境及经济社会的影响不容忽视,海岸线变化相关研究因此得到普遍的关注。在讨论海岸线的定义和分类的基础上,介绍岸线信息提取的方法与技术,总结国内外海岸线变化的特征、机制与影响方面研究的进展,并指出未来研究的趋势,包括:对海岸线变化过程进行动态监测仍将是普遍关注的研究重点之一;对海岸线变化特征、规律与机理的认识已经日益深化,基于大量高精度数据和机理模型的研究已成为热点和前沿问题;针对不同的海岸带区域,聚焦海岸线变化的原因和机制及其对环境和生态的影响,以及不同区域之间的相互联系与影响特征,这将是未来研究的重点之一;中国海岸线变化的独特性、复杂性突出,促进和支撑中国的海岸带综合管理实践,提高决策者与管理者对岸线变化所带来的灾害风险的重视,为中国海岸带的科学规划与发展提供依据,这应该是我国海岸线变化研究的重要目标。     

Rapid and large changes in coastal wetland structure in China's four major river deltas

Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem goods and services but are extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise, extreme climate, and human activities, especially the coastal wetlands in large river deltas, which are regarded as “natural recorders” of changes in estuarine environments. In addition to the area (loss or gain) and quality (degradation or improvement) of coastal wetlands, the information on coastal wetland structure (e.g., patch size and number) are also major metrics for coastal restoration and biodiversity protection, but remain very limited in China's four major river deltas. In this study, we quantified the spatial–temporal dynamics of total area (TA) and patch number (PN) of coastal wetlands with different sizes in the four deltas and the protected areas (PAs) and assessed the effects of major driving factors during 1984–2020. We also investigated the effectiveness of PAs through the comparison of TA and PN of coastal wetlands before and after the years in which PAs were listed as Ramsar Sites. We found both TA and PN experienced substantial losses in the Liaohe River Delta and Yellow River Delta but recent recoveries in the Yangtze River Delta. The coastal wetlands had a relatively stable and variable trend in TA but had a continually increasing trend in PN in the Pearl River Delta. Furthermore, reduced coastal reclamation, ecological restoration projects, and rapid expansion of invasive plants had great impacts on the coastal wetland structure in various ways. We also found that PAs were effective in halting the decreasing trends in coastal wetland areas and slowing the expansion of reclamation, but the success of PAs is being counteracted by soaring exotic plant invasions. Our findings provide vital information for the government and the public to address increasing challenges of coastal restoration, management, and sustainability in large river deltas.     

海平面上升对粤港澳大湾区沿海生境脆弱性评估

全球气候变暖所导致的海平面上升和快速城镇化将对沿海生境的分布和景观格局造成重大影响。评估海平面上升影响下的滨海湿地的脆弱性是对区域生态环境进行修复治理的重要依据。以粤港澳大湾区为例,基于SLAMM模型和Fragstas模型,针对六种海平面上升和土地利用耦合情景,对红树林、盐沼和潮滩三类海岸生境在2100年的面积变化、分布状况和脆弱程度进行了预测和分析。结果表明:1) 随着海平面上升,红树林和潮滩生境遭受严重退化。其中,红树林高脆弱性区主要分布在西江口、珠江口和黄茅海东岸。潮滩高脆弱性区则平均分布在大湾区沿海地带。相比之下,盐沼生境受海平面上升的影响较小。2) 与红树林和潮滩相比,土地利用模式对盐沼生境的影响最为显著。在保护已开发用地的情景下,珠江口西侧的盐沼面积大幅增加,脆弱性程度低。在保护所有旱地的情景下,盐沼生境面积虽然基本维持,但景观格局破坏严重,脆弱性程度高。本研究建议针对高脆弱区,动态调整土地利用策略,清理沿海湿地向内迁移的空间,增强沿海生境应对海平面上升的适应性。本研究可为沿海湿地的管理和保护提供科学支持。     

A review of methodologies and success indicators for coastal wetland restoration

Coastal wetlands are considered to be amongst the most productive ecosystems and can provide invaluable ecological services. However, coastal wetlands are listed amongst the most threatened ecosystems suffering from anthropogenic activities. The loss or degradation of coastal wetlands has drawn a high level of attention to wetland restoration. Improvement of the structure and function of degraded, damaged and destroyed wetlands may be achieved through ecological restoration. Large numbers of restoration projects have been conducted worldwide based on different restoration goals and different methods. It is undoubtedly important to evaluate whether coastal wetland restoration is successful. However, coastal wetland restoration assessment has become challenging because of current disagreement on definitions and concepts of restoration evaluation. We reviewed the methodology of coastal wetland restoration and criteria for success evaluation, and then summarized the issues for current wetland restoration and success evaluation based on literature review. Moreover, we used an estuarine wetland affected by urbanization as a sample to demonstrate how to establish a success indicator system for guiding wetland restoration and evaluating the success of wetland restoration.     

Efforts to aid downstream migrating brown trout (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmo trutta</Emphasis> L.) kelts and smolts passing a hydroelectric dam and a spillway

A Wetland Change Model has been developed to identify the vulnerability of coastal wetlands at broad spatial (regional to global (mean spatial resolution of 85 km)) and temporal scales (modelling period of 100 years). The model provides a dynamic and integrated assessment of wetland loss, and a means of estimating the transitions between different vegetated wetland types and open water under a range of scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in accommodation space from human intervention. This paper is an overview of key issues raised in the process of quantifying broad-scale vulnerabilities of coastal wetlands to forcing from sea-level rise discussing controlling factors of tidal range, sediment availability and accommodation space, identification of response lags and defining the threshold for wetland loss and transition.     

Impact of urbanization on coastal wetland structure and function

Abstract Urbanization is a major cause of loss of coastal wetlands. Urbanization also exerts significant influences on the structure and function of coastal wetlands, mainly through modifying the hydrological and sedimentation regimes, and the dynamics of nutrients and chemical pollutants. Natural coastal wetlands are characterized by a hydrological regime comprising concentrated flow to estuarine and coastal areas during flood events, and diffused discharge into groundwater and waterways during the non‐flood periods. Urbanization, through increasing the amount of impervious areas in the catchment, results in a replacement of this regime by concentrating rain run‐off. Quality of run‐off is also modified in urban areas, as loadings of sediment, nutrients and pollutants are increased in urban areas. While the effects of such modifications on the biota and the physical environment have been relatively well studied, there is to date little information on their impact at the ecosystem level. Methodological issues, such as a lack of sufficient replication at the whole‐habitat level, the lack of suitable indices of urbanization and tools for assessing hydrological connectivity, have to be overcome to allow the effects of urbanization to be assessed at the ecosystem level. A functional model is presented to demonstrate the impact of urbanization on coastal wetland structure and function.     

The conservation value of elevation data accuracy and model sophistication in reserve design under sea‐level rise

Many studies have explored the value of using more sophisticated coastal impact models and higher resolution elevation data in sea‐level rise (SLR) adaptation planning. However, we know little about to what extent the improved models and data could actually lead to better conservation outcomes under SLR. This is important to know because high‐resolution data are likely to not be available in some data‐poor coastal areas in the world and running more complicated coastal impact models is relatively time‐consuming, expensive, and requires assistance by qualified experts and technicians. We address this research question in the context of identifying conservation priorities in response to SLR. Specifically, we investigated the conservation value of using more accurate light detection and ranging (Lidar)‐based digital elevation data and process‐based coastal land‐cover change models (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, SLAMM) to identify conservation priorities versus simple “bathtub” models based on the relatively coarse National Elevation Dataset (NED) in a coastal region of northeast Florida. We compared conservation outcomes identified by reserve design software (Zonation) using three different model dataset combinations (Bathtub–NED, Bathtub–Lidar, and SLAMM–Lidar). The comparisons show that the conservation priorities are significantly different with different combinations of coastal impact models and elevation dataset inputs. The research suggests that it is valuable to invest in more accurate coastal impact models and elevation datasets in SLR adaptive conservation planning because this model–dataset combination could improve conservation outcomes under SLR. Less accurate coastal impact models, including ones created using coarser Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can still be useful when better data and models are not available or feasible, but results need to be appropriately assessed and communicated. A future research priority is to investigate how conservation priorities may vary among different SLR scenarios when different combinations of model‐data inputs are used.     

Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise

Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential ‘new shoreline’ will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a ‘coastal squeeze’ of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.     

近30年中国滨海滩涂湿地变化及其驱动力

随着人类活动影响的不断加剧,滨海湿地正面临着退化的威胁。尤其是近三十年来,中国东部沿海地区经济发展迅速,中国滨海湿地在时空格局等方面发生了巨大改变。以Google Earth Pro(GEP)s遥感影像为数据源,基于Google Earth Engine(GEE)平台和随机森林分类方法,解译了1990—2020年中国滨海地区的遥感影像,提取不同年份滩涂湿地面积,分析了过去30年间滨海滩涂湿地空间分布变化,从自然原因和政策变化两个方面探讨了中国滨海滩涂湿地时空格局变化的驱动机制。研究表明,中国滨海滩涂湿地呈现总体减少的趋势,总面积减少了42.98%,其中光滩面积减少了46.30%,盐沼面积增加了4.95%。不同省份滩涂湿地面积变化总体趋势与全国一致,与国家政策紧密联系;但不同年份各省份因发展需求和压力不同,滩涂湿地的变化的进程有一定差异。泥沙沉积和水动力条件的变化是滩涂湿地变化的主要自然因素,方针政策的贯彻执行是滩涂湿地变化的重要人为因素,通过出台严格合理管控政策可以促进中国滨海滩涂湿地可持续发展。     

海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地脆弱性评价

研究滨海湿地对气候变化的响应,评估气候变化对其影响,并提出切实可行的应对策略,是保障海岸带生态系统安全的重要前提.本研究以长江口滨海湿地为对象,采用“源-途径-受体-影响”模型和IPCC脆弱性定义分析了气候变化引起的海平面上升对滨海湿地生态系统的主要影响.构建了基于海平面上升速率、地面沉降速率、生境高程、生境淹水阈值和沉积速率为指标的脆弱性评价指标体系.在GIS平台上量化各脆弱性指标,计算脆弱性指数并分级,建立了海平面上升影响下滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评估方法,实现了在不同海平面上升情景（近30年长江口沿海平均海平面上升速率和IPCC排放情景特别报告中的A₁F₁情景）和时间尺度（2030和2050年）下,长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评价.结果表明： 在近30年长江口平均海平面上升速率（0.26 cm·a^-1）情景下,至2030年,研究区轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地分别占6.6%和0.1%;至2050年,轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地分别占9.8%和0.2%.在A₁F₁ （0.59 cm·a^-1）情景下,至2030年,轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地面积比例分别为9.0%和0.1%;至2050年,轻度脆弱、中度脆弱和高度脆弱的面积比例分别为9.5%、1.0%和0.3%.